The Strategic Relevance of Advanced Predictive Capacity

David Grimes

President of WMO

Co-chair WMO Panel of Experts on Polar and High mountain

Observations, Research and Services (EC-PHORS)

Year of Polar Prediction Summit

Geneva, Switzerland

Monday, July 13 2015

2

Outline

• EC-PHORS mandate

• Integrating operational and research networks in

Polar and High Mountain regions within the WIS and

WIGOS framework

• Linking research to support services

• Analysis of user needs & the development of the

Polar Regional Climate Centre concept

• Canadian activities and perspectives.

WIS & WIGOS

framework

GCW

AntON IPPI

GIPPS

Broad Scope –

Value-added chain from Acquisition, Exchange, Product development, Service delivery

user requirements, technologies, standards

observation gaps (e.g., polar oceans, snow cover)

configuration / interoperability with other polar observing networks

WIS/WIGOS compliance

sustainability

Challenges -

Remote and hostile environments

Operational and financial

Varied and complex organizational structures

EC-PHORS Mandate

3

Imperatives for Polar and High Mountain activities

Enhance and optimize observing networks;

e.g. Global Cryosphere Watch / AntON

Research to improve understanding of key processes

and dynamics that drive polar weather and climate;

Improved understanding feeds into models to advance

the operational weather forecasts and climate

projections;

Advanced data assimilation systems;

All leading to improved services through knowledge

transfer and capacity development to maximize the value

from investments.

4

Polar and High Mountain Activities are

highly leveraged

Collaborative activities leading to improved predictive

capability

in Polar and High Mountain Regions

Technical

Commissions

Members

Regional

Associations

ATCM

COMNAP

IAATO

IICWG

SCAR

IASC

IACS

FARO

ICIMOD

IOC

AC

5

6

IPPI Interagency Steering Group (ISG)

Current draft of Concept Document on IPPI finalized February 2014;

WMO approach is that GCW, GIPPS and Arctic HYCOS remain tangible

contributions to the IPPI and to ensure the concept;

• clearly articulates activities and tangible outcomes that are

inexpensive to implement;

• addresses WMO objectives;

• articulates benefits to national programmes

International Polar Partnership Initiative (IPPI)

The Global Earth System: •Sea level rise

•Climate

•Ocean circulation

•Atmospheric circulation

Regional and local impacts: •Natural resources and hazards

•Ecosystems

•Food production and fisheries

•Infrastructure

•Transportation

•Recreation

•GHG emissions

Global Recognition that changes in the cryosphere can

have significant impacts

7

Global Integrated Polar Prediction System

Global: International effort & poles

have global impacts

Integrated: Interconnection between

systems (research, observations and

services)

Polar Prediction System: Improving

predictive capacity is key

8

GIPPS Short-term Prediction

WWRP Polar Prediction Project

... and risks!

Photo by Chilean Navy/Reuters

Arctic opening comes

with opportunities ...

Photo from Llodys report

Data gaps and model deficits

cause poor forecasts in polar

regions

Uncertainty of near-surface temperature initial conditions (K)

Ham

ill, p

ers

. co

mm

.

(mid-2017 – mid-2019)

Coming up:

Ju

ng e

t a

l. 2

01

4

Error reduction of subseasonal forecasts

with improved Arctic predictions

Better Arctic forecasts

Better predictions in mid-

latitudes and tropics

9

GIPPS Medium-term Prediction

WCRP Polar Climate Predictability Initiative

1. Improve knowledge and

understanding of past polar

climate variations (up to

100-years)

2. Assess reanalyses in

polar regions

3. Improve understanding of

polar climate predictiability

on seasonal to decadal

timescales

4. Assess performance of

CMIP models in polar

regions

5. Model error

6. Improve how jets and

non-zonal circulation couple

to the rest of the system in

the Southern Hemisphere

PCPI Initiatives

Lead: H. Goosse, J. Kay Lead: M. Jochum, G. Svensson Lead: G. Marshall, M. Raphael

Lead: S. Gilles, J. Jones Lead: D. Bromwhich, J. Renwick Lead: J. Fyfe, E. Hawkins

10

GIPPS Long-term Prediction

Ice mass balance and sea level

Relates to WCRP Grand Challenges

Changes in Cryosphere and

Regional sea-level rise

Addressed by CliC

Implementation Plan in development

11

And there are global benefits ...

Advances in the Poles will lead to

improvements in weather

forecasts, climate predictions, and

ultimately better services for

lower latitude regions ….

Innovation through insights

gained through service

development for culturally unique

populations and highly sensitive

and specialized industries …

12

Need rapid transference of R&D into

operational domain

http://www.cpom.ucl.ac.uk/csopr/seaice.html

13

Services anchor the work …

Interface with users, including research

community, polar and high mountain peoples

and economic sectors.

Ensure the concept of GIPPS is responsive to

user requirements

14

Service Development

SIDARUS Questionnaire

GCW Website

globalcryospherewatch.org

Services White Paper

Survey of marine customers

in the Arctic

15

User requirements

Source: White Paper, EC-PHORS Services Task Team

Survey of marine customers in the Arctic

16

Supporting Decision-Making with Climate

Information

Climate records inform building

infrastructure design codes and

standards

Integrate the atmospheric, terrestrial

(including hydrology) and marine

cryosphere Essential Climate Variables

(ECVs) within GCOS

Seasonal and inter-annual climate

predictions provide statistics of various

climate variables and inform adaptive

strategies

17

18

Polar Regional Climate Centre Network - Arctic

Scoping Workshop November 17-19, 2015 Geneva

PRCC Mandatory functions:

• operational activities for long range forecasts (LRF);

• operational activities for climate monitoring;

• operational data services to support LRF and climate

monitoring; and

• training in the use of operational RCC products and services.

Highly Recommended Functions

• climate prediction and climate projection;

• non-operational data services;

• coordination functions;

• training and capacity development;

• research and development

19

Canadian Activities and Perspectives

Canada’s Northern Strategy

Potential Environment Canada - YOPP

Contributions

Coupled

Atmosphere-Ice-

Ocean Prediction

System

Improved models

and data

assimilation

Observing

system

evaluations

Observations for

assimilation and

verification

Improved Products

(NAVTEX, WMS)

Ensemble

forecasting

Operational support

20

21

Focus for Canada

Polar Knowledge Canada consists of:

• a Pan-northern Science and Technology

program,

• a Knowledge Management and

Mobilization function, and

• the Canadian High Arctic Research

Station being built in Cambridge Bay,

Nunavut. http://www.canada.ca/en/polar-knowledge/ (http://www.canada.ca/fr/savoir-polaire/index.html

Environment Canada’s Predictions of ice

free and freeze-up dates from CanSIPS

Anomaly correlation ice free day (SIC<0.5) (orange/red=significant at 95%)

Mean ice free date

CanSIPS has skill

predicting ice free

date up to 2-3

months in advance

22

Anomaly correlation freeze-up day (SIC>0.5) (orange/red=significant at 95%)

Mean freeze-up date

CanSIPS has skill

predicting freeze up

date up to 2-3

months in advance

23

Monitoring & Predicting Changes in Sea Ice

• Loss of sea ice

• Canada’s Northwest Passage

– high variability in ice cover

• Requirements for service

becoming year round

• International concern for

safety in Arctic marine

environment and

environmental protection

24

Ensuring Safe Transportation

MET/NAV - GMDSS

Aviation Weather Services for Transport

Canada and NAV Canada

Canadian Ice Service (CIS) provides ice

charts and forecasts in support of: – Canadian Coast Guard Ship routing

– CCG Icebreaking operations

ISTOP (Integrated Satellite Tracking of

Pollution)

Use of RADARSAT imagery is key to ice

surveillance and has co-benefits in

allowing for detection of accidental or

illegal oil dumping at sea

25

Canadian High Arctic Research Station (CHARS) Construction is Underway

26

Housing

Main Research Building

Field & Maintenance Building

Construction of the Canadian High Arctic Research Station (CHARS) will be completed by 2017

CHARS will anchor the network of research infrastructure across the North and make a significant contribution to Canada’s Northern Strategy

26

A Pan-Northern S&T Program

27

A world-class science and technology program invites international cooperation

Current priorities for 2015 – 2019: 1) Alternative and renewable energy for the North

2) Predicting the impacts of changing ice, permafrost, and snow on shipping, infrastructure, and communities

3) Baseline information and monitoring to prepare for development

4) Improving northern infrastructure

5) Underwater situational awareness and associated marine research

Based on the mandated themes of:

− Resource Development

− Exercising Sovereignty

− Strong and Healthy

Communities

− Environmental Stewardship and Climate Change

27

POLAR Knowledge Links with GIPPS / YOPPS

28

Improved Observations in the Canadian Arctic • Establishing Cambridge Bay as a Global monitoring super site. • Optimize existing and new investments in surveillance, observation, and

monitoring activities toward a strategic pan-regional monitoring system for Canada’s North.

• Fill Cryospheric monitoring gaps. POLAR S&T Plan 2014-2019 To support decision making needs in Canada’s North under accelerated rates of development and change, the S&T Plan areas of focus under this plan that link with GIPPS/YOPPS are:

• Safe Arctic shipping and the mitigation of impacts from shipping through improved observations and predictions.

• Strengthening the environmental (includes the Cryosphere) and socio-economic information base for assessment, regulatory approvals, and management for resource development.

• Supporting industry and communities in adapting to environmental changes.

28

Thank you

Merci

Спасибо

Gracias شكرا

谢 谢