the structure of political discussion networks
TRANSCRIPT
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Th S d D i fThe Structure and Dynamics of Online Political DiscussionsOnline Political Discussions
Sandra Gonzalez‐Bailond l b il ii [email protected]
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The Questions We Will Consider Today:
• Do online political discussions promote deliberation? (focus: structure of discussion threads)deliberation? (focus: structure of discussion threads)
Gonzalez‐Bailon, Kaltenbrunner and Banchs (2010) “The Structure of Political Di i N t k AM d l f th A l i f O li D lib ti “Discussion Networks: A Model for the Analysis of Online Deliberation“, Journal of Information Technology, 25 (2): 230‐243
• Can we use online political discussions to track public opinion? (focus: content of discussions)p p (f f )
Gonzalez‐Bailon, Kaltenbrunner and Banchs (2010) “Emotional Reactions and the Pulse of Public Opinion: Measuring the Impact of Political Events on thethe Pulse of Public Opinion: Measuring the Impact of Political Events on the Sentiment of Online Discussions”, under review
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Paper 1: Analysing Deliberationp y g
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The Logic of Deliberation
• Based on social interactions, not on private decisions
• Superior form of collective decision making: (i) Decisions are more informed (plurality of views)( ) (p y )(ii) Decisions are more legitimate (all voices are
represented)
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The Logic of Deliberation
• Based on social interactions, not on private decisions
• Superior form of collective decision making: (i) Decisions are more informed (plurality of views)( ) (p y )(ii) Decisions are more legitimate (all voices are
represented) D lib i iDeliberation requires:
Multiple points of view and conflictive argumentsMultiple points of view and conflictive arguments
Do political discussions involve more points of view and p p fmore argumentation?
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The Analysis of Online Deliberation: Data
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Data: September 2005 to August 2006
itlinux
politicsscience
yro
itlinux
politicsscience
yro
# posts (N=10016) # comments (N=2075085)
booksbsd
developersfeaturesgames
hardwareinterviews
it
booksbsd
developersfeaturesgames
hardwareinterviews
it
0 5 10 15 20 25
apacheappleask
backslashbooks
Hundreds
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
apacheapple
askbackslash
Thousands
itlinux
politicsscience
yro
# users (N=93636)
backslashbooks
bsddevelopers
featuresgames
hardwareinterviews
0 10 20 30 40 50
apacheapple
askbackslash
Thousands
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Discussion Threads as Hierarchical Networks
Post
Layer 1
Post
Comment Comment
Layer 2
Layer 1 Comment
C t C t
Comment
C t
L 3
Layer 2 Comment
C C C
Comment Comment
CLayer 3 Comment Comment Comment Comment
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Discussion Threads as Hierarchical Networks
Post
Layer 1
Post
Comment Comment
Layer 2
Layer 1 Comment
C t C t
Comment
C t d th
L 3
Layer 2 Comment
C C C
Comment Comment
C
depth
Layer 3 Comment Comment Comment Comment
width
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Four Types of Discussion
max T IType II Type IType II
tion)
rg
umen
tat
Type IVType III
dept
h (a Type IVType III
max min width
( i )(representation)
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Models of Decision Making (Who and What)
Ackerman, B., and J. S. Fishkin (2002) Deliberation Day. The Journal of Political Philosophy, v. 10, n. 2, p. 150.
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The Empirical Measurement of Deliberationp
max T IT II Type IType II
tatio
n)
th (a
rgum
ent
Type IV Type III
max
dept
min max min width
(representation)
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Classification of Discussions in Possibility Space max
Type I Type II
atio
n)
pth
(arg
umen
ta
Type IV Type III
max
dep
min width
( t ti )(representation)
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Additional Measures of Width and Depth
Width DepthWidth DepthMax # comments # nested levels
Total # comments H‐index users
Total # use s H i dex co e tsTotal # users H‐index comments
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Classification of Discussions in Possibility Space max
Type I Type II
atio
n)
pth
(arg
umen
ta
Type IV Type III
max
dep
min width
( t ti )(representation)
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ConclusionsDo political discussions involve more points of view and more argumentation?and more argumentation?
Yes They reproduce important pre conditions forYes. They reproduce important pre‐conditions for deliberation to take place.
Future research
Comparative analysis: do other online forums promote the same type of dynamics?promote the same type of dynamics?
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Paper 2: Analysing Public Opinionp y g p
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The Importance of Public Opinionp p
• Public opinion: proxy to the way citizens u i opi io p o y o e ay i i eperceive political issues and react to current affairsaffairs
• S d P ll h i b hi d• Surveys and Polls – mechanism behind opinion tides? (focus: emotions)
What explains polarisation and volatility?p p y
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Measuring the Emotional Content of Discussionsg
ValenceValence
A lArousal
Dominance
Bradley and Lang. 1999. ʺAffective norms for English words (ANEW) Technical report C‐1.ʺ The Center for Research in Psychophysiology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL.y p y gy, y , ,
Dodds and Danforth. 2009. ʺMeasuring the Happiness of Large‐Scale Written Expression: Songs, Blogs, and Presidents.ʺ Journal of Happiness Studies DOI: 10.1007/s10902‐009‐9150‐9.
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Data: Usenet Political Discussions (1999‐2005)
4
6
8x 10000
0
2
09/1999 09/2000 09/2001 09/2002 09/2003 09/2004
gunwhiteblacknewswar
whitegunnews
l
warwhiteworldgunterrorist
warworldnews peoplewhite good timepeace gun death
warnewswhiteworld time
warnewstimeworldpeoplenewswar
peoplehateworldparty freedeathgoodmancrimehouse time
peoplewarblacktimehouse
terroristnews timepeoplehousegooddeathhatemandeadblackpeace truth free
hate house deadblack terrorist partyf ree man truth lie
o dpeoplegoodhatedeadmanhousepartydeathfreeblack lietruthgun torturet i t
peoplehatewhitesocialdeadgoodmanhousepartygoddeathfraudwin free
bl khouse timemoneyboyabortion flag
housepartyworldgoodcutdeathpower
lettergod terrorist gun black
powerhatemanfraud freetruthcrime
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Discussions become unhappier over time...pp
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Discussions become angrier over time...g
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Discussions reflect higher vulnerability over time...g y
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How Do Emotions Compare to Approval Rates?p pp
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Do Emotions Help Predict Approval Rates?p pp
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Do Emotions Help Predict Approval Rates?p pp
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Conclusions
• Emotions help predict public opinion E o io e p p e i pu i opi io(politics is as much about passions as about reasons)reasons)
•A l i th t i ifi t ti l•Arousal is the most significant emotional dimension – does this also apply to other time windows?
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Future Research
• Combine these two approaches: Do emotions o i e e e o app oa e o e o iohelp explain the growth of discussion threads?
• Validate approach across platforms and li i ti itilinguistic communities