the target population for military recruitment: youth

FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

The Target Population for Military Recruitment: Youth Eligible to Enlist Without a Waiver

September 2016 Defense Advisory Committee on Women in the Services


2

Eligibility Standards

Why? The Department establishes standards designed to ensure that individuals under consideration

for enlistment, appointment, or induction are able to perform military duties successfully, and to select those who are the most trainable and adaptable to Service life.

What is considered? Standards considered are: age, aptitude, citizenship, dependents, education, medical,

character/conduct, physical fitness, drug use, and other conditions

Are these standards reviewed on regular basis? Societal norms, medical findings, internal and external analyses of performance, and other

studies help inform the Department in the establishment of these standards. Each area is reviewed by subject matter experts on a regular basis.

What is the “recruitable population”?

DoD policy establishes a minimum baseline from which eligibility is derived. The Services have the latitude to be more restrictive as well as allow waivers for most standards they choose. These Service policies more aptly define the “recruitable population” and the type of youth that each Service seeks.


3

Estimating Eligibility: Qualified Military Available (QMA)

What is it? DoD’s official metric estimating the number of youth who are eligible and available for enlisted

military service without a waiver. The basic ingredient of this metric is the size of the population aged 17–24 reduced by the

number who are disqualified for one or more criteria within seven overarching categories: 1) Medical/Physical, 2) Overweight, 3) Mental Health, 4) Drugs, 5) Conduct, 6) Dependents, 7) Aptitude.

When was the metric last examined?

The 2013 QMA Study revised and updated previous QMA estimations by using more recent data to estimate the prevalence of disqualifying conditions and by accounting for the correlations of disqualifying conditions that account for overlap among multiple disqualifiers.

What criteria and rationale were used?

After reviewing the particular guidelines established by DoD Instructions 1304.26, QUALIFICATION STANDARDS FOR ENLISTMENT, APPOINTMENT, AND INDUCTION and 6130.03, MEDICAL STANDARDS FOR APPOINTMENT, ENLISTMENT, OR INDUCTION IN THE MILITARY SERVICES, which govern military entrance eligibility criteria, disqualifying conditions were grouped into seven broad disqualification categories.


4

Estimating Eligibility: Qualified Military Available (QMA)

What data sources were used? National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) Joint Advertising, Market Research & Studies Youth Poll surveys (JAMRS – YP) Military Entrance Processing Command (MEPCOM) Production Applicants Armed Forces

Qualification Test (AFQT) Score Database Woods & Poole Economics’ Population Estimates 1997 Profile of American Youth (PAY97)

What are the key results?

29% of youth would meet all the core eligibility requirements 17% would qualify and be available for enlisted active duty service 13% would qualify, be available, and score above the 30th percentile on the AFQT

The AFQT score is a composite made of math and verbal tests from the Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery (ASVAB)

Scores are normed against a nationally representative sample of 18-23 year olds and reported as percentile scores


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Note: Percentages may not sum due to rounding.

Source: DoD Qualified Military Available (QMA) Study 2013

Qualified Military Available (QMA): 2013 Estimates

Note: Youth ages 17–24

Qualified HSDG I-IIIA 2% Qualified College

Grad I-IV 4% (IV =.3%)

Qualified Non-HSDG I-IIIA & HSDG IIIB

5%

Qualified Non-HSDG IIIB-IV & HSDG IV

6% (IV =3.4%)

Qualified College Enrolled I-IV

12%

Medical DQ Only (Includes Overweight

& Mental Health) 28%

Drugs DQ Only 8% Conduct DQ Only 1%

Dependents DQ Only 2% Aptitude DQ Only

2%

Medical & Drugs 3%

Drugs & Overweight 2%

Med, Drugs & MH 2% Drugs & Conduct 1%

Other Overlapping DQ 23%

Disqualified for Multiple Reasons

31%

(IV = 2%)

QMA: 17%

(5.8 million)

QMA I-IIIB: 13%

(4.4 million)

29% are eligible

to serve (9.6 million)


6

Source: DoD Qualified Military Available (QMA) Study 2013. Note: Youth ages 17–24. Percentages may not sum due to rounding.

QMA Disqualification Categories: Unique and Combined Impact

12% of youth are ineligible as a result of dependents. Two percent are ineligible only because of dependents.

only, 8% only, 8%

only, 1% only, 2%

only, 10%

only, 2% only, 2%

+ others, 22% + others, 22%


+ others, 21%

+ others, 14%

+ others, 8%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Medical/Physical Drugs Conduct Dependents Overweight Mental Health Aptitude

30% 30%

15%

31%

12% 10% 9%


only, 7% only, 10%

only, 2% only, 1%

only, 10%

only, 1% only, 2%

+ others, 21%

+ others, 25%

+ others, 12%

+ others, 8%

+ others, 21%


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40% Males Only

28%

35%

14%

9%

30%

11% 10%




7



only, 9% only, 6%

only, 1% only, 3%

only, 10%

only, 3% only, 1%

+ others, 24%

+ others, 20%

+ others, 6%

+ others, 12%

+ others, 21%

+ others, 17%

+ others, 7%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%Females Only

33%

26%

6%

14%

31%

20%

8%



8


9

Gender Composition of the Recruitable Population (2016)

Recruitable Population by Gender (2016)

DoD Qualified Military Available (QMA) Study 2013

Youth ages 17–24

Youth Population by Gender (2016)

Woods & Poole Economics (2013 release, 2016 projection)

Youth ages 17–24

Male, 4,822,035

Female, 4,885,977

Male, 16,636,172

Female, 16,672,373


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Projected Recruitable Market

Source: DoD Qualified Military Available (QMA) Study 2013. Woods & Poole Economics (2013), 2010–2030 projections. Note: Youth ages 17–24

23.73 23.88 23.60 23.80 25.31 26.28

4.84 4.78 4.82 4.91 5.24 5.45

4.87 4.78 4.89 5.01 5.35

5.57

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2010 2013 2016 2020 2026 2030

Yout

h (in

mill

ions

)

Ineligible Eligible (M) Eligible (F)

29% 29% 29% 29% 29%

30%


11

Source: DoD Youth Poll

Eligible Youth: Academic Quality and Career Goals

High Academic Quality (As and Bs in High School)

Youth Ages 17 to 24; Spring 2016

What is the highest level of education you would eventually like to complete?

Youth Ages 17 to 24; Spring 2016 % Responding Probably/Definitely

3% 4% 7% 30%

52%

3% 2% 7% 25%

62%

High schooldiploma

Vocational ortrade school

Associatedegree

Bachelor'sdegree

Master's,doctoral, orprofessional

degree

Male Female

42% 48%

54%

20% 30% 27% 27%

13% 25%

15%

55% 44%

34% 34% 25% 25% 24%

39%

7% 5%

Doctor Smallbusiness

owner

Scientist/engineer Teacher Manager Lawyer Actor/entertainer Nurse Military Officer Enlistedmember

of Miltary

MaleFemale

If you were completely free to choose, how much would you like to have each of these jobs/positions when you are 35 years old?

Youth Ages 17 to 24; Spring 2015: % Responding a lot/Very much Top 8 + Military Jobs

79% 62%

Male Female


Appendix

12


13

Eligible Female Youth Market: Barriers to Service

Military Self-Efficacy Youth Poll (Fall 2015)

How likely is it that joining the Military would allow you to have an attractive lifestyle?

Youth Poll (Fall 2015)

Reasons Not to Join Youth Poll (Fall 2015)

55%

43%

46%

69%

56%

58%

Possibility of injury/death

Leaving family andfriends

Possibility of PTSD

Female Male

Eligible Youth Ages 17 to 24 % 5-7 Extremely Likely

Eligible Youth Ages 17 to 24

Eligible Youth Ages 17 to 24 How confident are you that you could do each of the following activities % Probably/Definitely Yes

29% 36%

Male Female

Complete Boot Camp Leave Family/Friends Fight in a War

71% 41%

54% 33%

36% 8%

Male Female


12% 10% 14%

11%

16%

20%

15% 17%

15% 14%

10% 8%

10% 11%

14%

9%

17%

13% 12% 12% 14% 13% 14% 13%

12%

13%

12%

17%

14%

11%

11% 13%

13%

5%

9%

5% 5% 6%

9% 7%

6% 6% 5% 5% 4% 3%

5%

9% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5%

3%

6% 6% 4%

6% 6% 5% 5% 6% 5% 5% 6% 5%

21% 19%

29%

23% 27% 25%

23% 25% 25%

27%

18% 17%

15%

19% 20% 20%

17%

18%

23% 22% 22% 22%

26%

23% 25%

28%

24% 26%

24% 23% 23%

26%

21%

8% 10%

8% 11% 10% 11% 12%

8% 11% 11%

7% 6% 7%

9%

11% 12%

10% 10% 9% 10%

8%

11% 11% 11%

13%

11%

14%

13% 12% 11%

14% 13%

11%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Male High-Academic-Quality Female High-Academic-Quality

FPP9: How likely is it that you will be serving in the Military in the next few years? Response options: Definitely, Probably, Probably Not, Definitely Not

14 Source: Department of Defense Youth Poll

Significant change from previous poll

General Military Propensity By Academic Quality and Gender

% Definitely/Probably

Note: Youth ages 16–21. Estimates are charted to precise values. Labels are rounded to the nearest whole percent.

One year earlier

the target population for military recruitment: youth

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