the top 10 initiatives to reduce crime · the top 10 initiatives to reduce crime professor rick...
TRANSCRIPT
Law Evenings Seminar
The Top 10 Initiatives to
Reduce Crime
Professor Rick Sarre
School of Law
University of South Australia
Why is this issue so important and urgent?
AIC: costs of crime
Nearly $36 billion a year = 4.1% of GDP.
$21.25 billion are direct losses
• 40% is the result of fraud
• 10% associated with burglary
• 9% drug offences
• 8% arson
• 7% assault.
http://www.aic.gov.au/crime_community/communitycrime/costs.html
Why is this issue so important and urgent?
$15 billion are the costs associated with the processes of the justice
system.
Expenditures (2013-2014) have reached:
Police (not including AFP) $10.18 billion
Criminal courts $ 0.77 billion
Corrections $ 3.37 billion
TOTAL $15.0 billion p.a.
(Productivity Commission 2015)
Why is this issue so important and urgent?
Corrections
• Adult prison population in Australia has reached 34,000 inmates, a
rise of 10% over the previous year (ABS)
• 60% of these have been in prison prior to this period of
incarceration
• Currently $106,000 per prisoner per annum.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
9001
96
1
196
2
196
3
196
4
196
5
196
6
196
7
196
8
196
9
197
0
197
1
197
2
197
3
197
4
197
5
197
6
197
8
197
9
198
0
198
2
198
3
198
4
198
5
198
6
198
7
198
8
198
9
199
0
199
1
199
2
199
3
199
4
199
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
Axis
Tit
le
Imprisonment rates 1961-2012
NSW
VIC
QLD
SA
WA
Tas
NT
ACT
AUS
Why is this issue so important and urgent in SA?
We are somewhat out of kilter with the rest of the country:
• Highest median aggregate sentence length of any Australian
jurisdiction (4.5 years)
• Highest % of unsentenced prisoners of any jurisdiction in Australia
(34%) (compare Australian 25%).
• Highest remand rate (other than NT) in the nation.
• One of the steepest upward climbs in terms of imprisonment rates
(from 124/100,000 in 2003 to 173/100,000 in 2012-13).
• Prisoner numbers increased by 9% in one year, 2012-2013 to 2,200.
• We used to have an historically low rate; now we have caught up to
the Australian rate!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
20019
70
19
71
19
72
19
73
19
74
19
75
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
Rate
per
100,0
00 a
du
lt p
op
ula
tio
n
Imprisonment rates SA and Australian average
SA
Aust.
Why is this issue so important and urgent?
Eileen Baldry case studies include …
“Roy” IQ 70, personality disorder, cognitive dysfunction, history of
substance abuse, in custody as a juvenile, now aged 30
• 1400 days in prison
• 100 days in hospital
• 5000 methadone doses
• dozens of housing re-locations
• (ignoring the costs of his criminal behaviour)
Cost to the state: $1,958,291
Why is this issue so important and urgent?
Human rights issues
• Indigenous over-representation 2% population, 24% prison
population = 12 x.
• Indigenous victimisation is 5 x non-Indigenous victimisation
• Persons with a mental illness are disproportionately represented in
prison populations
• We all want to live in a safer society where there is less crime and
victimisation.
Is crime prevention policy easy?
No.
There are 3 reasons for this …
1. There are some hard choices to make: balancing cost, often
contradictory evidence-based research, and finding the right mix of
social crime prevention, situational crime prevention and deterrence
(justice) policies, not to forget popular sentiment (to name but a few
often conflicting pressures).
Is crime prevention policy easy?
No.
2. The causes of crime are many and varied, and depend upon the type
of crime:
• against the person
• property crime
• white collar crime
• organised crime
• cybercrime
• street crime
• family crime
• drug crime
• sexual (predatory) crime
• environmental crime
• crimes against children
• state crime
• terrorism
• vandalism
Is crime prevention policy easy?
No.
3. Different groups face different levels of risk of victimisation and re-
victimisation.
Some groups of people are far more likely to be victims of certain
offences than others
• young males as victims of violence
• the elderly as victims of financial scams
• people who are vulnerable because of disability are likely to become
victims and to be re-victimised (etc)
So we need to be very strategic with our prevention dollar.
So crime prevention is not easy, but nor is it
impossible…there are good stories to tell
• Good data sources (though not perfect)
• Sustained funding of research for 40 years
• Successes: crime in Western nations is on a downward trend
SAPOL: steady decline of 34.3% in crime reports to SA police from 2003-4 to 2012-13.
Across Australia there are declines across the board with a few exceptions …
Percentage change in police recorded crime
offences (Australia) 2001-11
• offences 2001-11
Source: Australian Institute of Criminology
But is the declining rate because of the
increase in prison and justice expenditures?
How do you determine which intervention was the key to success?
e.g. violent crime rates have been declining for 15 years in Western
nations. Credit has been claimed by everyone: crime prevention
specialists, police, churches, demographers, NRA, mass incarceration
advocates, restorative justice advocates, rehabilitation advocates,
economists looking at abortion law reform.
And how do you explain the rise in some crimes, like assaults, shoplifting
and sexual assault?
Remember also that crime drops have occurred in countries where the
rate of imprisonment has declined and police numbers remain stable.
Sources
Amongst others:
• Australian Institute of Criminology
• ANZSOC Adam Sutton Award for
Crime Prevention
• Campbell Collaboration
• University of Maryland
‘What Works?’ study
• Jill Dando Institute studies
• Washington State Institute for
Public Policy
• Miller and Aos studies (National
Bureau of Economic Research)
• SACOSS
• Peggy Hora Report (Thinker in
Residence)
• BOCSAR reports
• Pope Francis (speech to the 19th
International Congress of the
International Association of Penal
Law)
• University of Toronto Criminology
Highlights
• National Crime Prevention (Australia)
• Australian National Drug Strategy
• SAPOL Annual Reports
• Report on Government Services
Evaluative technique 1
I am relying upon randomized
experimentations: (David Weisburd,
Heather Strang, Larry Sherman, Peter
Grabosky et al)
If you have randomized trials with control
groups you eliminate rogue variables
Evaluative technique 2
But I am also happy to accept
‘interpretist’ / ‘realist’ evaluations
(championed by Nick Tilley and Ray
Pawson)
Randomized experiments are often too difficult (and $) to construct.
A ‘realist’ approach, in contrast, values engagement and seeks to
find what happens in different contexts. The people involved in the
programs, too, can provide valuable insights.
Caveats/cautions
• My top 10 choices include programs that have been evaluated by one
or the other approaches. I have not favoured one over the other.
• My top 10 have not been costed on per capita basis; the ranking is
not a $ for $ exercise. It can be done, but not by me.
• I have engaged in no surveying of colleagues other than to seek
ideas: these are simply my favourites and are mine alone.
• My favourites are not designed to tackle terrorism, genocide, religious
fanaticism, war crimes, environmental crime and other white collar
crime such as corporate manslaughter. These all require a much
more nuanced approach.
• I have decided against a Top 10 “What Doesn’t Work” because we
may find ourselves arguing here all night.
Parameters
What I am looking for What to try to avoid doing
Evidence-based (randomized, meta-analyses,
‘interpretist’ models) Accepting the “warm inner glow”
Focused on specific geographical places or
segments of society Labelling
Early intervention Net-widening
Using resources outside of the criminal justice
system
Ignoring the crucial role of police, courts and
corrections
Anything that lowers the rates of incarceration Losing the confidence of the public and victims
What the public/victims think is appropriate Vigilante justice
The Top 10 Initiatives to Reduce Crime
Corrections
Courts
Police
Situational
Social
#10
#9
#8
#7
#6
#5
#4
#3
#2 & #1
# 10
Support pre- and post-release initiatives.
Desistance studies reveal prison itself is criminogenic.
60% of current Australian prisoners have been in prison before.
Fund prison-based adult education training
has been shown to reduce chances
of re-imprisonment.
• Pilot ‘leave-taking’ ceremonies
• Fund release support networks
Work of Mark Halsey (Flinders) and
Shadd Maruna (Belfast).
# 9 Deal with the health needs of prisoners.
Research into the life course pathways of 2,731 NSW prisoners has
isolated and highlighted the needs of those with mental health
disorders and cognitive disabilities (ABI and
fetal alcohol syndrome). Unless there is a whole
of government approach to mental health,
homelessness, out of home care and legal aid,
then vulnerable people will continue to be massively
over-represented in prison populations.
Eileen Baldry (et al)
# 8
Don’t lose faith in the courts as therapeutic agents.
‘Therapeutic Justice’ model. We can enhance the well-being of those
who come before the courts (victims, witnesses, accused persons) by
using knowledge from mental health and related disciplines to prevent
people from coming away worse for the experience.
Problem-solving courts: drug courts and mental health courts can have a
therapeutic effect. Courthouse designs are important in that process.
Aboriginal and tribal courts have shown that even if they
do not reduce Indigenous imprisonment, at the very
least they can assist offenders not to be harmed by
the process. (Moana Jackson).
# 7
Continue juvenile justice conferencing.
Randomized trial (‘RISE’) in Canberra
1995-2000 showed reductions in violence
for youths < 30. Reintegrative Shaming Experiments
were designed by John Braithwaite.
Since then, the evidence for restorative justice has
been a little mixed.
However (Kathy Daly);
• found high levels of victim satisfaction
• found that restorative justice programs work
at least as well as formal justice responses.
# 6
Strengthen procedural fairness in policing.
People are less likely to commit crime if they believe
that the police are behaving in a procedurally fair manner
and their practices are legitimate and not arbitrary (Tom Tyler).
We must work with police in framing our recruitment,
training and management. It is possible to shape police
culture towards these ends (Janet Chan).
# 5 Encourage public/private cooperation in situational crime
prevention
e.g. Strike Force Piccadilly
2005 ↑ ATM ram raids Greater Sydney Area
NSW Police, ABA, Shopping Centre Council of Australia,
CIT firms, ATM Industry Association formed alliance
Created: 1. priority alarm response system
2. situational prevention (specialist bollards)
3. risk assessment
4. shared intelligence reports
Impacts: all raids: ↓ 86% over 3 years
successful raids: ↓ 98% over 3 years
Tim Prenzler
# 4
Continue to fund the National Motor Vehicle Theft Reduction Program.
Comprehensive Auto-theft Research System (CARS) Ray Carroll
http://www.carsafe.com.au/.
60% reduction in thefts since 2001 (still 54,000 per year!)
Focus on 15-20 year olds (50%) and the education/
welfare/employment of the ‘at risk’ population, along with a
‘target-hardening’ of cars.
# 3
Continue the Pathways to Prevention program
Designed to install protective factors (positive interactions) at crucial developmental transition points in a child’s life;
• around birth
• at the commencement of primary school
• the move to high school
• move into work
• marriage and partnerships
All part of a strategy to strengthen a community’s
capacity to agree on goals for child well-being and
mobilise their efforts to address them.
Communities for Children Program Ross Homel
# 2
Act to prevent child abuse and neglect, and restrict the availability of alcohol.
Don Weatherburn (BOCSAR) matching study
Children with substantiated records of physical abuse and neglect
are more likely to be arrested later in childhood. Abuse and neglect
are significantly associated with alcohol and drug dependence.
Since 50% of all police detainees attribute
their offending to drugs or alcohol, these preventive
initiatives must include reducing the availability of
packaged wine and placing greater restrictions on licenses
in selected neighbourhoods, which have both been shown
to contribute to reductions in crimes of violence.
# 1
Fund prenatal and infancy home visiting by nurses.
A randomized trial (David Olds et al) monitored the progress of
children born to mothers with low psychological resources and who
received specialist services.
By age 12, the program reduced children’s use of
substances and mental health problems and improved
their academic achievement.
This was the number 1 cost-effective crime
prevention strategy identified in the University of
Maryland study post-1996. Stockholm Prize winner 2008.
Problem
Governments don’t always listen to these
ideas, but rather have agendas of their own.
Not as bad as this …
but problematic nevertheless…
What have current Australian governments touted in recent years?
• Reversal of presumption of bail
• Longer sentences • One punch laws • Abolition of suspended
sentences • Pink prison uniforms • Mandatory sentencing
(imprisonment) • Anti-bikie laws
• Closing of specialist courts • Shutting down research
agencies (threat) • Stop and frisk laws • Sex offender registers • Boot camps • Tighter control of parole • ‘3 strikes’ laws • Curfews • Rack ‘em and pack ‘em
Moving towards problem-solving: a start
Commendably John Rau has created, as Minister for Justice Reform, a
“transforming criminal justice” program (2015).
• Lower rates of remand in custody
• Strengthen diversion
• Get early resolution of matters & cut trial delays
• Have stronger data collections
• Meet $ efficiencies and KPIs
I commend the aforementioned Top 10 and other prophylactic measures to his committee as additional ‘tools’ in their ‘kitbag’ to bring about the reforms needed.
Summary • The costs of crime are enormous and unsustainable
• The causes of crime are complex; hence prevention is a complex issue
too, but not insurmountable.
• The role of government is important, not only for what it can do, but for
what it should avoid doing.
• There are some good stories to tell, especially around community
capacity-building, and developmental approaches.
• Crime prevention specialists have a proven track record for theorizing,
commissioning good research, interpreting the data, suggesting preferred
responses and allocating appropriate resources.
• Governments and their policy-makers should listen to them, and act
accordingly, rather than going off on evidence-bereft flights of fancy.
Some key references Andrews, G, Baldry, E, ‘Mental Health Frequent Presenters’, in Chappell, D (ed), Policing and the Mentally Ill:
International perspectives, CRC Press, Boca Raton, FL (2013).
Baldry, E, 'Complex needs and the justice system', in Chamberlain, C, Johnson, G, Robinson, C (ed.),
Homelessness in Australia: an introduction, UNSW Press, Sydney (2014).
Cherney, A and Fitzgerald, R, ‘Finding and keeping a job: the value and meaning of employment for
parolees. International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology (2014 , in press)
Currie, E The Roots of Danger: Violent Crime in Global Perspective Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
(2008).
Head, B, Ferguson, M, Cherney, A and Boreham, P, ‘Are policy-makers interested in social research?
Exploring the sources and uses of valued information among public servants in Australia’, Policy and
Society, 33: 89-101 (2014).
Heseltine, K, Day, A, and Sarre, R, ‘Prison-Based Correctional Offender Rehabilitation Programs: The 2009
National Picture in Australia’ Research and Public Policy Series,112, Canberra: AIC (2011).
Maruna, S ‘Re-entry as a rite of passage’. Punishment and Society, 13(1), 3-28 (2011).
Payne, J and Gaffney, A ‘How much crime is drug or alcohol related? Self-reported attributions of police
detainees’ Trends & issues in crime and criminal justice , no. 439, Canberra: Australian Institute of
Criminology, (2012).
Prenzler, T, ‘Strike Force Piccadilly: A Public-Private Partnership to Stop ATM Ram Raids’, Policing: An
International Journal of Police Strategies and Management, 32(2), 209-225 (2009).
Some key references Prenzler, T, ‘Strike Force Piccadilly and ATM Security: A Follow Up Study’, Policing: A Journal of Policy and
Practice, 5(3), 236-247 (2011).
Ransley, J, ‘If you want to cut crime, you can’t ignore the evidence’ The Conversation 19/2/15 (2015).
Sarre, R, ‘We get the crime we deserve: Exploring the political disconnect in crime policy’, James Cook
University Law Journal, 18, 144-161 (2011).
Sarre, R and Vernon, A, ‘Access to safe justice in Australian courts: Some reflections upon intelligence,
design and process, The International Journal for Crime, Justice and Social Democracy, 2(2), 133-147
(2013).
Thompson, C, Stewart, S, Allard, T, Chrzanowski, A Luker, C, and Sveticic, J, ‘Examining adult-onset
offending: A case for adult cautioning, Trends & issues in crime and criminal justice no. 488, Canberra:
AIC (2014)
Tonry, M. ‘Making Peace, Not Desert’, Criminology and Public Policy, 10(3), 637-649, (2011).
Tubex, H, Brown, D, Sarre, R and Gelb, K ‘Penal diversity within Australia’, Punishment and Society,
(forthcoming, 2015).
Tyler, T, Why People Obey the Law, Princeton University Press, Princeton NJ, (2006).
Weatherburn, D and Lind, B, ‘Social and Economic Stress, Child Neglect and Juvenile Delinquency, NSW
Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research, Sydney (1997).
Wilkinson, R and Pickett, K The Spirit Level: Why Greater Equality Makes Societies Stronger , Allen Lane,
London (2009).