THE TRANSIT + WORKFORCE PROJECT

Project Update - September, 2015

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PROJECT SCOPE

This research investigates the issues of spatial and skills mismatch in the Twin Cities (Minneapolis-St. Paul) metropolitan

region in the context of the region’s ongoing transit system development. Research findings are expected to help policy

makers to develop transit-oriented workforce development strategies to maximize job placement and career

advancement among disadvantaged job seekers.

PROGRESS UPDATE

Since the National Advisory Panel Meeting on May 7, 2015 the project team has completed the following tasks:

Completed the final geocoding of 2001-14 job vacancy data with 97 percent of all data mapped

Conducted analyses at a more granular level using 6 digit Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) codes in addition to 2 digit North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) codes. (Based on the SOC codes all workers are classified into one of 840 detailed occupations)

Mapped job vacancy distribution by industry

Identified top 20 occupations for each pertinent industrial sector

Identified the industry with the largest number of job vacancies in each city in the region and in each neighborhood in the two central cities (Minneapolis and St. Paul)

Investigated educational requirements for job vacancies by industry and urban vs. suburban locations

Conducted regional accessibility analysis comparing access to job vacancies by current vs. future transit systems

IN THIS UPDATE REPORT

Industry sectors studied: Based on the initial analysis presented at the National Advisory Panel Meeting and comments from the advisors, the list of key industries for job placement was revised to include the 7 industries given below.

1. Manufacturing 2. Transportation and Warehousing 3. Finance and Insurance 4. Professional/Scientific/Technical Services 5. Management of Companies and Enterprises 6. Educational Services 7. Health Care and Social Assistance

Transportation and Warehousing was added based on the recommendation and interest of the National Advisory Panel. The addition of Management of Companies and Enterprises is based on employment distribution (presented May 7, 2015) as the employment for the industry at both the state and metro level is approximately twice the national average indicating a need for further exploration. Retail Trade and Accommodation and Food Services were removed.

Data years included: In this update report, we focus on data from 2011 – 2014. This data is from the recovery period after the economic recession of 2008 and is more in line with present conditions in the region. In the following sections we go over the preliminary findings from our updated analysis.

CONTINUING WORK

The research team will continue working on the following analysis components:

1. Quantifying the magnitudes of spatial and skills mismatch using well-established indices of dissimilarity

2. Working with project advisors to develop and compare multiple future scenarios in the contexts of transit

planning, job creation patterns, and workforce development policy

3. Working with project advisors to identify and conduct in-depth neighborhood & facility case studies

4. Synthesizing research and working with project advisors to develop strategies that can effectively mitigate

spatial and skills mismatch in the Twin Cities

SPATIAL CONCENTRATION OF JOB VACANCIES (2011-2014)

The spatial distribution of job vacancies varies significantly by industry. For all industries the highest concentrations of

job vacancies (orange tones on the map) were in Minneapolis, St. Paul; and Minnetonka, Eden Prairie, and Bloomington

to the south west. Unemployment (green tones) is spatially concentrated in Minneapolis, St. Paul, Brooklyn Park and

Richfield.

For individual industries, Manufacturing (west and north of the Twin Cities) and Health Care and Social Assistance (north,

south and west of the Twin Cities) show the widest spread of job vacancies in terms of spatial distribution.

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Professional/Scientific/Technical Services and Educational Services job vacancies show a significant concentration in

Minneapolis, primarily in downtown for the former and around the University of Minnesota for the latter. Downtowns of

Minneapolis and St. Paul also show a significant concentration of job vacancies for Finance and Insurance. Management

of Companies and Enterprises job vacancies are concentrated in Minneapolis, St Paul, Minnetonka, Richfield and Eden

Prairie. Transportation and Warehousing job vacancies are concentrated in Minneapolis, St. Paul, Roseville and Eagan.

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TOP 20 OCCUPATIONS BY INDUSTRY (2011-2014)

The ability to look at job vacancies in industrial sectors by occupation is extremely beneficial for the purposes of work

force development as it provides additional insights into potential training requirements to fill the vacancies. For all

industries, job vacancies in the top 20 occupations accounted for 34% of all job vacancies between 2011 and 2014.

The top two occupations were Retail Salesperson and Food Preparation and Serving Staff, potentially due to the high

turnover in the two occupations.

The top 20 Manufacturing occupations accounted for 43% of all job vacancies in the sector with Industrial Engineers

and Production Workers (helpers) being the top 2. For Transportation and Warehousing the top 20 occupations

accounted for 83% of all job vacancies in the sector with Heavy Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers and Bus Drivers, School or

Special Client Drivers being the top 2. The top 20 Finance and Insurance occupations accounted for 64% of all job

vacancies in the sector with Customer Service Representatives and Personal Financial Advisors being the top 2

occupations.

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TOP 20 OCCUPATIONS BY INDUSTRY (2011-2014)

The top 20 Professional/Scientific/Technical Services occupations accounted for 69% of all job vacancies in the sector

with Sales Representatives (wholesale and manufacturing, technical and scientific products) and Database

Administrators being the top 2 occupations. For Management of Companies and Enterprises the top 20 occupations

accounted for 49% of all job vacancies in the sector with Computer System Analysts and Management Analysts being

the top 2 occupations. The top 20 Educational Services occupations accounted for 61% of all job vacancies in the sector

with Teacher Assistants and Elementary School Teachers (Except Special Education) being the top 2 occupations. Finally,

for Health Care and Social Assistance the top 20 occupations accounted for 70% of all job vacancies in the sector with

Registered Nurses and Home Health Aides (Except Special Education) being the top 2 occupations.

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TOP INDUSTRIES WITH JOB VACANCIES BY CITY (2011-2014)

To gain a better understanding of how job vacancies are distributed in the Twin Cities Metro area, the top industry with

job vacancies was mapped for each Metro city. It is very important to note that the map does not necessarily indicate a

large number of job vacancies within an industry for each city. The actual number of job vacancies in the top industry is

relative to the total job vacancies and the distribution of industries in the city.

For Minneapolis and St. Paul the industries with the highest job vacancies were Professional/Scientific/Technical

Services and Health Care/Social Assistance respectively. A band of cities with the highest job vacancies in

manufacturing surround Minneapolis to the west and the north including, Minnetonka, Plymouth, Brooklyn Center, Fridley,

Mounds View and Arden Hills. With a few exceptions, cities with the highest job vacancies in Transportation and

Warehousing are located towards the southern and south western boundary of the Metro area. Towards the north east

of the Twin Cities is a cluster of cities with highest job vacancies in Educational Services and Health Care and Social

Assistance. To the south of Minneapolis is a concentration of cities with the highest job vacancies in Retail Trade

including, Edina, Bloomington, Burnsville and Apple Valley. Cities with the highest job vacancies in Construction are

located closer to the boundaries of the Metro area. Other industries are distributed with no discernable patterns across

the Metro area.

The proximity of cities with highest job vacancies in Manufacturing and Retail Trade industries with comparatively lower

educational requirements, to the Twin Cities may be of particular interest to policy makers. For the unemployed, who

are primarily concentrated in Minneapolis and St. Paul, access to these jobs which would require minimal training for

workforce development could be highly beneficial.

A color coded city reference map is provided at the end of this document

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TOP INDUSTRIES WITH JOB VACANCIES BY NEIGHBORHOOD – MSP &ST.PAUL (2011-2014)

Having looked at top industries with job vacancies by city in the Metro area we take a more detailed look at the Twin

Cities by exploring the same at the neighborhood level. For Minneapolis neighborhoods, in general, Educational

Services and Health Care/Social Assistance are the dominant industries in terms of highest job vacancies. Within the

downtown area (downtown east and west, North Loop), Professional/Scientific/Technical Services and

Accommodation/food services had the highest job vacancies. Retail Trade in Minneapolis has a concentration in terms

of neighborhoods with the highest job vacancies towards the south west corner of the city. For St. Paul neighborhoods,

Health Care/Social Assistance is the dominant industry in terms of highest job vacancies. Unlike downtown Minneapolis,

for downtown St. Paul (Capitol River neighborhood) Health Care/Social Assistance is the industry with the highest job

vacancies.

The hatched areas on both city maps show Racially Concentrated Areas of Poverty (RCAPs) as defined by the

Metropolitan Council. As can be seen in the figure, for a majority of neighborhoods falling in the RCAP areas in both

cities Health Care/Social Assistance has the highest job vacancies. While the specific nature of job vacancies in these

neighborhoods would require further investigation this may be indicative of a skill mismatch between the unemployed

population in these neighborhoods and the qualifications required to fill positions which may require higher education

levels, specific training and related work experience. This highlights the need to provide residents of these

neighborhoods with better access to jobs that match their skill set or provide them with the required training to qualify

for job opportunities in their neighborhoods.

Color coded neighborhood reference maps are provided at the end of this document

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EDUCATIONAL REQUIREMENTS BY INDUSTRY (2011-2014)

Next, we look at educational requirement by

industrial sector. The bar on the left on each

graph represents educational requirements for

all job vacancies in the industrial sector. The

remaining two bars represent educational

requirements for all job vacancies in the city

and the suburb. Using Manufacturing as an

example, of the total job vacancies in the

sector 23% are located in the central cities

(i.e., Minneapolis and St. Paul) and 77% in the

surrounding suburbs in the Metro area.

Overall, Professional/Scientific/Technical

Services, Educational Services and

Management of Companies and Enterprises

have the highest educational requirements with

at least 55% of all vacancies across industries

and city/suburbs requiring a bachelor’s

degree or higher. Transportation and

Warehousing job vacancies have the lowest

educational requirements with under 10% of

the jobs requiring a bachelor’s degree or

higher. Similarly, for Health Care/Social

Assistance under 35% of the job vacancies

require a bachelor’s degree or higher. Lower

education requirements in these two sectors

make them good potential candidates to

target in terms of workforce development due

to the lower training requirements needed to

enable unemployed residents to qualify to fill

the vacancies.

It is also interesting to note that while looking

at the cities vs. suburbs for Manufacturing,

Finance and Insurance,

Professional/Scientific/Technical Services,

Educational Services and Management of

Companies and Enterprises, city-based job

vacancies typically have higher educational

requirements compared to their suburban

counterparts indicating the need to take into

account geographic location when creating

strategies for workforce development.

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ACCESSIBILITY ANALYSIS

The accessibility maps show the cumulative opportunity accessibility to job vacancies from Twin Cities census tracts with

the current transit system and with the addition of all proposed transitways that have advanced at least as far as the

definition of alternatives phase of the planning process. Put simply, cumulative opportunity means the total number of

destinations reachable from a given location in a given amount of time--here 45 minutes. In other words, the

accessibility figure for a given tract is the total number of job vacancies one can reach by transit and/or walking from

that census tract in 45 minutes or less. All accessibility figures are calculated for morning peak on a weekday.

The hypothetical future

system represents a

maximum investment

scenario--where more than

one mode is under serious

consideration for a given

corridor, we assume the

most ambitious option.

Travel time estimates are

based on transitway

Environmental Impact

Statements and

Alternatives Analyses

where available, as well

as the Arterial Transitway

Corridor Study and travel

times of existing bus

service.

Our analysis indicates that

gains in accessibility are

regional in scope, and

dependent on both transit

improvements and locations

of job vacancies. The

strongest gains occur in the

inner metro, and along the

Green and Blue Line

extensions. Finally, RCAP’s,

such as North Minneapolis

and Phillips/Powderhorn

experience particularly

strong gains in accessibility.

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COLOR CODED CITY REFERENCE MAP- TWIN CITIES METRO

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COLOR CODED NEIGHBORHOOD REFERENCE MAP