the unbearable lightness of m2m forecastingdocbox.etsi.org/workshop/2014/201412_m2mworkshop/... ·...
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COPYRIGHT © 2014 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
Marc Jadoul ( @mjadoul)Sophia Antipolis, 10 December 2014
THE UNBEARABLE LIGHTNESSOF M2M FORECASTING
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GOOD MORNING. HOW WAS YOUR BREAKFAST?
Photo: pictures.4ever.eu
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BREAKFAST IN 2020
Perfectly baked bread thanks to the wireless temperature sensor
implants in the dough.(1)
Perfectly baked bread thanks to the wireless temperature sensor
implants in the dough.(1)
A connected egg tray tells you how many eggs you have left in your smart fridge.(2)(3)
A connected egg tray tells you how many eggs you have left in your smart fridge.(2)(3)
Your cup monitors the temperature of your tea.(6)
Your cup monitors the temperature of your tea.(6)
The smart bowl calculates the calories you’re taking in.(4)
The smart bowl calculates the calories you’re taking in.(4)
This smart spoon assists people with hand tremors.(7)
This smart spoon assists people with hand tremors.(7)
(1) http://www.powerretail.com.au/case-profiles-studies/high-tech-bread/(2) http://gigaom.com/2013/08/20/podcast-hard-boiled-quirky-and-ge-will-connect-your-eggs-and-crack-open-the-iot-space/(3) http://www.nbcnews.com/tech/gift-guide/out-milk-lgs-new-smart-fridge-will-let-you-know-n99531(4) http://www.npr.org/blogs/thesalt/2014/07/15/331402697/calorie-counting-machine-may-make-dieting-easier-in-the-future(5) http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/10364890/WiFi-kettle-allows-you-to-boil-water-from-bed.html(6) http://www.instructables.com/id/Smart-Coffer-Cup-Temperature-Reminds-For-Your-Hot-/(7) http://www.voanews.com/content/smart-spoon-allows-parkinsons-sufferers-to-feed-themselves/1830217.html
The iKettle was switched on while you were still in bed.(5)
The iKettle was switched on while you were still in bed.(5)
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A TYPICAL FAMILY HOME COULD CONTAIN MORE THAN 500 SMART DEVICES BY 2022
A TYPICAL FAMILY HOME COULD CONTAIN MORE THAN 500 SMART DEVICES BY 2022
Gartner, September 2014
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THE NEXT STEP IN INTERNET EVOLUTION
Pre-internet era
Internet ofCONTENT
Internet ofSERVICES
Internet ofPEOPLE
Internet ofTHINGS
SOCIALWEB 2.0WWWH2H M2M
+ + + +
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Source: Gartner, July 2014
Internet of ThingsInternet of Things
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Source: gsmaintelligence.comImage: http://gizmodo.com/a-map-of-every-device-in-the-world-thats-connected-to-t-1628171291
BY THE END OF 2014 THE NUMBER OF MOBILE-CONNECTED DEVICES WILL HAVEEXCEEDED THE WORLD’S POPULATION
AND THIS IS JUST A BEGINNING …
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212 BILLION‘THINGS’ IN 2020
26 BILLION‘UNITS’ BY 2020
$8.9 TRILLION GLOBAL REVENUES
BY 2020
$300 BILLION SERVICES REVENUES
IN 2020
$1.9 TRILLION GLOBAL ECONOMIC
VALUE IN 2020
Source: IDC, October 2013 Source: Gartner, March 2014
THE ‘INTERNET OF THINGS’ IN 2020: IT’S GOING TO BEBIIIIIG, THOUGH NOBODY REALLY KNOWS HOW BIG…
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ARE THEY REALLY TALKING ABOUT THE SAME TOPIC?
25. A scenario in which everyday objects connect and share data with applications and with each other.
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Image: http://w
ww
.bobmcm
ahon.com
DID THEY COUNT EVERYTHING?
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(1) http://www.m2mnow.biz/2013/05/11/11795-container-tracking-systems-installed-base-grew-54-in-2012-says-new-berg-insight-report/(2) http://www.dutchnews.nl/news/archives/2014/09/schiphol_airport_tests_cameras.php(3) http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-25197917(4) http://www.psfk.com/2014/01/true-love-bra.html(5) http://www.idownloadblog.com/2014/01/06/ces-2014-kolibree-toothbrush/(6) http://smartinteractionlab.com/whistle-connected-dog-collar/(7) http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/baidu-launches-smart-chopsticks-to-detect-contaminated-food-9711478.html
(5) (6)
(3, 4)
ALL ‘THINGS’ GREAT AND SMALL
(7)
(1)
(2)
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THE SHORT TAIL VS. THE LONG TAIL
# Applications
KILLER APPS
THE LONG TAIL
SEGMENT/INDUSTRY/BUSINESS SPECIFIC
Assets/Application
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1carCellular dataBluetoothWi-FiHomelinkTPMS(GPS)
5 connections100 sensors
Air–fuel ratio, blind spot monitor,
crankshaft position, curb feeler, defect
detector, engine coolant temperature,
Hall effect sensor, manifold absolute
pressure, mass flow, oxygen, parking
sensors, radar gun detector, speed,
throttle position, tire-pressure, torque,
transmission fluid temperature, turbine
speed, variable reluctance, water-in-
fuel, water-on-windshield, wheel
speed, etc. etc.
WHAT ARE THEY ACTUALLY COUNTING?Photo: m
otortrend.com
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A COMPLEX AND DIVERSE ECOSYSTEM
Based upon: Matt Turk, Sutian Dong, FirstMark Capital, 2013
YOU ARE
HERE
YOU ARE
HERE
YOU ARE
HERE
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ARPD/ARPC AT A FRACTION OF TRADITIONAL VOICE & DATA ARPU
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POSSIBLE ROLES OF A SERVICE PROVIDER
Connectivity & SIM wholesale
M2M onboarding, AAA, device management, analytics, security, …
Fostering applications to increase network utilization. Integrating ‘things’ into applications
End-to-end solutions for verticals and consumers.
NETWORK+ TRANSPORT M2M PLATFORM DEV. PORTAL
+ STOREFRONTAPPLICATION
HOSTING
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Photo: visitoakdaleca.com
WHY SHOULD WE CARE ABOUT STANDARDS?
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EXPERIENCE ‘BY DESIGN’
manageabilityperformance
scalability
interoperability
security
APIsvirtualization
FCQ
€
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ARE YOU READY FOR THIS NEW EXPERIENCE?
Fido @connected_collar 3hYour dog needs a walk
Inventory @my_suitcase 2h3 pairs of fresh socks left
Coffee @percolator3288 12mCoffee will be ready at 10:45
Time Keeper @Timekeeper 2mConclude your talk NOW!
Mike @ETSI_microphone3 5sThe next speaker is ready ;-)
Home Discover Activity
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KEEP CALMANDREAD THIS
AT HOME http://www2.alcatel-lucent.com/techzine/internet-of-things-benefit-standardization/
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KEEP CALM
AND
REPLAYTHESE
WEBINARS http://www.onem2m.org/btchannel.cfm
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Photo: http://ww
w.picturesonw
alls.com
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THOUGHT OF THE DAY…