the upcoming u.s. elections: the mood of the american people

The Upcoming U.S. Elections: theMood of the American People

Bruce StokesDirector, Global Economic Attitudes October, 2018

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Pew Research Center

• Established 1996

• Funded by The Pew Charitable Trusts, foundations

• Non-profit, non-partisan fact tank in Washington

• Since 2002, we have surveyed in 108 countries

• www.pewresearch.org

• @pewresearch

THE MOOD OF THE ELECTORATE

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October 18, 2018 4

A sense of victimhood: Even many ‘winners’ feel like they’relosing in politics

Thinking about the way things have been going in politics over the last few yearson issues that matter to you, would you say your side has been … (%)

Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Jan. 29-Feb. 13, 2018.

October 18, 2018 5

Most continue to say government is run by a few big interests

% who say the government is run …

Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted March 7-14, 2018.

October 18, 2018 6

A sense of alienation from Congress: Most say it is unlikely theirrepresentative would help them address a problem if contactedSuppose you contacted your member of the U.S. House of Representatives with a

problem. How likely do you think it is that they would help you address it? (%)

Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Jan. 29–Feb. 13, 2018. Congressional district information comes from Gary Jacobson’s databaseof congressional election results.

Partisans Remain Divided Over the 2017 Tax Law

% who __ of the tax law passed by Donald Trump and Congress last year

Note: Don’t know responses not shown.Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Sept. 18-24, 2018.

46

12

73

41

50

46

36

72

12

49

36

26

Total

Rep/Lean Rep

Dem/Lean Dem

$75,000 or more

$30,000-$74,999

Less than $30,000

Disapprove Approve

Family income

October 18, 2018

There is a Stark Partisan Divide in Americans’ Views ofCooperation with U.S. Allies

% who say the U.S. should take into account the interests of its allies, even if it means making compromises


4336

65

74

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Rep/Lean Rep Dem/Lean Dem

October 18, 2018

Fewer Americans Believe That Say Other Countries ‘TakeUnfair Advantage’ of U.S. Than in the 1990s

% who say that other countries …


42

2419

51

7078

Sept 2018Sept 1999July 1994

Generally treat U.S. as fairly as we treat themOften take unfair advantage of the U.S.

October 18, 2018

But a Partisan Divide Has Emerged on Other Nations TakingUnfair Advantage’ of the U.S.

% who say that other countries oten take unfair advantage of the United States


28

6876 80

7380

Sept 2018Sept 1999July 1994

Dem/Lean Dem Rep/Lean Rep

October 18, 2018

October 18, 2018 11

Democrats Believe the U.S. is Much Less RespectedAbroad, Such Republican Concern is Down

% who say that, compared with the past, the U.S. is ____ by other countries thesedays

Source: Survey conducted Oct. 25-30, 2017.

There is a Profound Disrespect for the Other Party: Large Majoritiesof Democrats and Republicans View Each Other Unfavorably

Democratic attitudes about the Republican Party Republican attitudes about the Democratic Party

October 18, 2018 12


THE UPCOMING CONGRESSIONAL MIDTERMS

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October 18, 2018 14

Data and graphics source: FiveThirtyEight

October 18, 2018 15

Voter enthusiasm has risen – especially among Democrats% of registered voters who say they are more

enthusiastic than usual about voting …

Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Sept. 18-24, 2018.

October 18, 2018 16

Voters are focusedon Supreme Court

% of registered voterssaying each is “veryimportant” to theirvote in 2018 …


October 18, 2018 17

Where partypriorities align



October 18, 2018 18

Where partypriorities differ



October 18, 2018 19

Looking Ahead, Democrats Are Much Less Likely Than in thePast to Want Their Elected Officials to Compromise

% who say they like elected officials who make compromises with people theydisagree with


IS THIS ELECTION A REFERENDUM ON DONALD TRUMP?

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In Pew Surveys There Has Been Consistent Disapproval ofPresident Trump’s Job Performance% who __ of the way Trump is handling his job as president

Note: Don’t know responses not shown.Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Sept. 18–24, 2018.

39

32

38

56

63

55Disapprove

Approve

Feb2017

Dec2017

Sept2018

October 18, 2018

Today, There Are Wide Demographic Differencesin Trump Job Approval

% who __ of the way Trump is handling his job as president


55%

4763

4784

71

605654

51

38%

4630

476

21

2738

4145

Total

MenWomen

WhiteBlack

Hispanic

Ages 18-2930-4950-64

65+

ApproveDisapprove

October 18, 2018

Such Disapproval is Highly Partisan% who __ of the way Trump is handling his job as president

67%62

5053

148

26

9085

95

2740

5571

28%34

3940

7987

63

711

4

6752

4122

PostgradCollege grad

Some collegeHS or less

Rep/Lean RepConservMod/Lib

Dem/Lean DemCons/Mod

Liberal

White evang ProtWhite mainline Prot

CatholicUnaffiliated

ApproveDisapprove


October 18, 2018

In the latest Pewsurvey, Trump gets low

marks fortemperament, trust;

but most say he standsup for his beliefs

October 18, 2018 24

% who say each describes Trump ...


Republicans Give Trump Very Positive Ratings on Traits –Except Temperament% who say each describes Trump …


October 18, 2018

Impressions of Trump as “Competent” Lags Behind OtherPresidents in Midterm Years

% who say each describes president …

Able to get things done Strong Leader


50

44

55

43

40

Trump Sept '18

Obama July '14

Obama June '10

Bush Aug '06

Clinton July '94

43

47

53

43

Trump Sept '18

Obama July '14

Obama June '10

Bush Aug '06

Clinton July '94

nothing

October 18, 2018

And Impressions of Trump as “Trustworthy” Lag Well BehindOther Presidents in Midterm Years


Trustworthy Cares about people like me


34

51

58

41

46

Trump Sept '18

Obama July '14

Obama June '10

Bush Aug '06

Clinton July '94

36

54

60

41

Trump Sept '18

Obama July '14

Obama June '10

Bush Aug '06

Clinton July '94

nothing

October 18, 2018

Impressions of Trump as “Well Informed” Also Lag WellBehind Other Presidents in Midterm Years


Well informed


38

67

46

58

Trump Sept '18

Obama July '14

Obama June '10

Bush Aug '06

Clinton July '94

N/A

October 18, 2018

October 18, 2018 29

And The American Public is Divided Over Whether Trump HasRespect for America’s Democratic Institutions, Traditions% who say Donald Trump has ___ respect for this country’s democratic

institutions and traditions


October 18, 2018 30

So, are the Congressional midterms a referendum onTrump?

Do you think of your vote for Congress as a vote FOR the president, AGAINSTthe president or isn’t the president much of a factor in your vote? (%)


October 18, 2018 31

All Pew Research Center reports areavailable online at www.pewresearch.orgBruce StokesDirector, Global Economic Attitudes@bruceestokes

the upcoming u.s. elections: the mood of the american people

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