The U.S. in 2008: The Election and the Economy

I. Demographic data

II. U.S. political process

III. 2008 election

IV. State of U.S. economy

Population Density by State

Growth in Minority Population

SOURCE: Census Bureau | GRAPHIC: The Washington Post - May 10, 2006

Distribution of African Americans

Distribution of Asian Americans

The U.S. Electoral Cycle

Every TWO years congressional elections all members of the House of Representatives (2 year terms) 1/3 of the members of the Senate (6 year terms) November of even numbered years, take office January of odd numbered years

Every FOUR years congressional and presidential elections November of years divisible by 4, take office January of odd numbered years presidents can only serve 2 terms

2004 Bush (R) defeated Kerry (D) Republicans keep control of both Houses of Congress

2006 Democrats win majority in both House of Representatives and Senate

2008 John McCain (R) vs. Obama or Clinton (D) + all members of House of Representative + 33 members of Senate

2010 all members of House of Representative + 33 members of Senate

Senate House

Democrats 44 201REPUBLICANS 55 229

Senate House

DEMOCRATS 51 233Republicans 49 202

Control of Congress before 2006 Election

Control of Congress after 2006 Election

The Presidential Selection Process

1. 50 State primaries or caucusesheld between January and June, each state can choose its own timeeach party has its own separate primary or caucus2 purposes

to select delegates to go to the national convention to nominate the president

to select party candidates for congressional, state, and local electionsprimary is a vote much like a regular election votecaucus is a set of public meetings where people declare their preferences

20% of Democratic delegates are “superdelegates” chosen by state parties

2. National conventionIn July the Democratic delegates meet at their national conventionRepublicans meet in AugustJohn McCain has already won a majority of Republican delegatesBarack Obama has a small lead over Hillary Clinton, but does not have a majority

3. General Election + Electoral CollegeIn the first week of November the national vote is heldthe vote that counts is the vote of states in the electoral college

states vote as a bloc (win Florida by one vote and you win all 54 Florida votes)so in rare cases the winner of the popular vote does not win the electoral collegein 2000 Al Gore won more votes, but George Bush won the electoral college and became president

Electoral College Results 2004 Size of State Adjusted for Size of Population

Three party eras

The U.S. party system usually shows historical continuities

I. Democratic Dominance 1933-1968Democratic presidents for 28 of 36 yearsDemocrats controlled Congress for 32 of 36 years

II. Divided Government: Split Level 1969-1994Republican Presidents for 20 of 26 yearsBut Democrats controlled the House of Representatives all 26 yearsDemocrats controlled the Senate 20 of 26 years

III. The New Republican Majority in Congress 1995-2006Democrat Clinton faced Republican majorities in Congress his last 6 yearsRepublican Bush had Republican majorities in the House for 6 years and the Senate for

four yearsDemocrats won control of both houses of Congress in 2006

Themes from Candidate or Party Websites

Voters’ Identification of Most Important Issues to Them

Thinking ahead to the November presidential election, what is the single most important issue in your choice for president?

2/1/08 1/12/08 12/9/07 11/1/07 9/7/07

Economy/Jobs 39 29 24 14 11

Iraq/War in Iraq 19 20 23 29 35

Health care 8 10 10 13 13

Terrorism/Natl security 5 4 9 5 6

Ethics/Corruption in govt 4 5 4 4 6

Immigration 4 4 5 5 5

Public Opinion on which party can do a better job on issues

Which political party, the (Democrats) or the (Republicans), do you trust to do a better job handling ______?

Democrats Republicans The economy 52 (44) 33 (45) war in Iraq 48 (30) 34 (56) Health care 56 (47) 29 (37)War on terrorism 44 (25) 37 (61)Immigration 40 (NA) 37 (NA) budget deficit 52 (38) 31 (46) Taxes 48 (46) 40 (44)

Numbers in parenthesis = scores in 2002

Numbers do not add up to 100% because of answers like both parties, neither party, orno opinion.

Numbers in xxx are numbers taken during the first Bush administration.

U.S Economic Problemsadapted from http://www.thought-criminal.org/article/node/1018

U.S. Debt Crisis

1. The average U.S. household owes more debt than it owns in assets

2. In 1945, half of all the debt in the world was owed to the U.S. government, U.S. corporations, and individuals

3. Today, half of all the debt in the world is owed by the U.S. government, U.S. corporations, and individuals

Number of Homes in foreclosure process

Third Quarter 2006 223,233

First Quarter 2007 333,731

Third Quarter 2007 446,726

1% of all American homes were in foreclosure process in 2007

up from .6% in 2006

In the U.S. the home ownership rate is approximately 2 out of 3 households

Percentage of Americans without Health Insurance

More U.S. EconomicIndicators

Euro exchange rate against the Dollar

Yen exchange rate against the Dollar