ECONOMIC IMPACT OF TROPICAL AND INFECTIOUS DISEASES IN SUB-SAHARA

AFRICA

Oluwole Kukoyi

22 April 2015

Greetings from my wife

And our children

And our organisation (work in progress)

Sir Joe Madu's visit to NACC

Outline

Introduction

Definitions

Demography

The tropical and infectious diseases

Overview of the impact

Economic impact

Summary and appreciation

References

Some geography

• Sub-Saharan Africa is, geographically, the area of the continent of Africa that lies south of the Sahara Desert. Politically, it consists of all African countries that are fully or partially located south of the Sahara (excluding Sudan, even though Sudan sits in the Eastern portion of the Sahara Desert).1 It contrasts with North Africa, which is considered a part of the Arab world

The map

Dark and lighter green: Definition of "Sub-Saharan Africa" as used in the statistics of UN institutions.Lighter green: However, Sudan is classified as North Africa by the United Nations.[1]

Demographics of SSAIndicator Value

GDP (current US$) $1.643 trillion

Population, total 936.3 million

GNI per capita, (current US$)

$1,686

Urban population (% of total)

37%

Life expectancy at birth 57

Source World bank

Economy of SSA

• In the mid-2010s, private capital flows to Sub-Saharan Africa — primarily from the BRICs, private-sector investment portfolios, and remittances — began to exceed official development assistance.3

• As of 2011, Africa is one of the fastest developing regions in the world. Six of the world's ten fastest-growing economies over the previous decade were situated below the Sahara, with the remaining four in East and Central Asia4.

Economy of SSA

• Between 2011 and 2015, the economic growth rate of the average nation in Africa is expected to surpass that of the average nation in Asia. Sub-Saharan Africa is by then projected to contribute seven out of the ten fastest growing economies in the world.3

• According to the World Bank, the economic growth rate in the region had risen to 4.7% in 2013, with a rate of 5.2% forecasted for 2014. This continued rise was attributed to increasing investment in infrastructure and resources as well as steady expenditure per household.

SSA and electricity

• Fifty percent of Africa is rural with no access to electricity. Africa generates 47 GW of electricity, less than 0.6% of the global market share. Many countries are affected by power shortages.5

Infrastructure in SSA

• According to researchers at the Overseas Development Institute, the lack of infrastructure in many developing countries represents one of the most significant limitations to economic growth and achievement of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).6

Check list of the infectious diseasesCategory Diseases

Sexually transmitted diseases HIV/AIDS, Syphilis.Blood-borne diseases Hepatitis B and C, HIV/AIDS and malaria

Vector-borne diseases Malaria, Yellow fever

Food borne and waterborne diseases

Traveler diarrhoea, Hepatitis A, Cholera, typhoid fever

Rodent-borne diseases Plague, Lassa fever

Haemorrhagic fevers Ebola virus disease

Airborne diseases Tuberculosis, chicken pox, measles, Influenza,

Zoonoses Tularemia, brucellosis, certain viral haemorrhagic fevers.

The Neglected Tropical Diseases

NTDs are a diverse group of diseases

They have distinct characteristics

They thrive mainly among the poorest populations.

Are endemic in 149 countries

Affect more than 1.4 billion people

Cost developing economies billions of dollars every

year

They result from 4 different causative pathogens

The NTDs

Pathogen Examples

Protozoa Chaga disease, Leishmaniasis

Bacteria Leprosy, Trachoma, Yaws

Helminth Cysticercosis, guinea-worm disease, Schitosomiasis

Virus Dengue, Rabies

The NTDs result from 4 different causative pathogens:

The disease burden

• NTDs along with HIV, TB, and malaria are collectively referred to as ‘infectious diseases of poverty’ (IDoPs), and these are primarily concentrated in rural areas of Sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, and Latin America7

• More than 90% of the total impact as a result of death and disability caused by neglected diseases occurs in Sub-Saharan Africa8

Overview of impact• Morbidity and mortality• Economic• Transport, Travel, Tourism, and Social

Gatherings• Impact on delivery of healthcare• Social e.g. huge orphan cohort• Political.. severe social and economic impact

of infectious diseases is likely to intensify the struggle for political power to control scarce state resources

Economic impact

• The economic costs of infectious diseases--especially HIV/AIDS and malaria--are already significant, and their increasingly heavy toll on productivity, profitability, and foreign investment will be reflected in growing GDP losses, as well, that could reduce GDP by as much as 20 percent or more7

Economic effects

• Effect on employment in several ways– reduced attendance due to infection, fear of

infection, or absenteeism of workers caring for their families.

– Broader economic problems caused by reduced workforces may then initiate economic downturn and further unemployment

2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa: Case counts(CDC/WHO updated as at 21-April 2015)Countries with widespread transmission

Country Total cases

(suspected, probable,

and Confirmed

Laboratory-

confirmed cases

Total deaths

Guinea 3565 3136 2358

Liberia 10042 3151 4486

Sierra Leone 12,265 8,573 3877

Total 25,872 14,860 10,721

2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa: Case counts(CDC/WHO updated as at 21-April 2015)

Previously affected countries

Country Total cases

(suspected, probable,

and Confirmed

Laboratory-

confirmed cases

Total deaths

Nigeria 20 19 8

Senegal 1 1 0

Spain 1 1 0

USA 4 4 1

Mali 8 7 6

UK 1 1 0

Total 35 33 15

The Ebola outbreak

Impact within the US8

• Although multidrug therapies have cut HIV/AIDS deaths by two-thirds to 17,000 annually since 1995, emerging microbial resistance to such drugs and continued new infections will sustain the threat.

• Some 4 million Americans are chronic carriers of the hepatitis C virus, a significant cause of liver cancer and cirrhosis. The US death toll from the virus may surpass that of HIV/AIDS in the next five years.

• TB, exacerbated by multidrug resistant strains and HIV/AIDS co-infection, has made a comeback. Although a massive and costly control effort is achieving considerable success, the threat will be sustained by the spread of HIV and the growing number of new, particularly illegal, immigrants infected with TB.

Impact within the US8

• Influenza now kills some 30,000 Americans annually, and epidemiologists generally agree that it is not a question of whether, but when, the next killer pandemic will occur.

• Highly virulent and increasingly antimicrobial resistant pathogens, such as Staphylococcus aureus, are major sources of hospital-acquired infections that kill some 14,000 patients annually.

• The doubling of US food imports over the last five years is one of the factors contributing to tens of millions of foodborne illnesses and 9,000 deaths that occur annually, and the trend is up.

Implications to US security8

• As a major hub of global travel, immigration, and commerce with wide-ranging interests and a large civilian and military presence overseas, the United States and its equities abroad will remain at risk from infectious diseases.

• Emerging and reemerging infectious diseases, many of which are likely to continue to originate overseas, will continue to kill at least 170,000 Americans annually. Many more could perish in an epidemic of influenza or yet-unknown disease or if there is a substantial decline in the effectiveness of available HIV/AIDS drugs.

• Infectious diseases are likely to continue to account for more military hospital admissions than battlefield injuries. US military personnel deployed at NATO and US bases overseas, will be at low-to-moderate risk. At highest risk will be US military forces deployed in support of humanitarian and peacekeeping operations in developing countries.

Implications to US security8

• The infectious disease burden will weaken the military capabilities of some countries--as well as international peacekeeping efforts--as their armies and recruitment pools experience HIV infection rates ranging from 10 to 60 percent. The cost will be highest among officers and the more modernized militaries in Sub-Saharan Africa and increasingly among FSU states and possibly some rogue states.

• Infectious diseases are likely to slow socioeconomic development in the hardest-hit developing and former communist countries and regions. This will challenge democratic development and transitions and possibly contribute to humanitarian emergencies and civil conflicts.

• Infectious disease-related embargoes and restrictions on travel and immigration will cause frictions among and between developed and developing countries.

Acknowledgements

• West Africa America Chamber of Commerce and Industry WACCI

• President of WACCI, Sir Joe Madu• Participants• Almighty God, for journey mercy and His grace

every day

References• 1. http://esa.un.org/unpp/definition.html• 2. http://unstats.un.org/unsd/methods/m49/m49regin.htm. United Nations Statistics

Division. 11 February 2013. Retrieved 15 April 2015.• 3. World Bank Report 2013 retrieved 15 April 2015• 4. http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/outbreaks/2014-west-africa/case-counts.html

retrieved 21 April 2015• 5. http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2011/01/daily_chart retrieved on 16

April 20155. Creamer Media. Africa’s energy problems threatens growth, says Nepad CEO 12 November 2009

• 6. Christian K.M. Kingombe 2011. Mapping the new infrastructure financing landscape, London: Overseas Development Institute

• 7. http://www.idpjournal.com/content/3/1/21. Accessed on 15 April 20158. Global, regional, and national causes of child mortality: an updated systematic analysis for 2010 with time trends since 2000. Lancet 2012, 379(9832):2151-2161. Retrieved 16 April 2015

• 8. NIE 99-17D, January 2000

Thank you

• Merci• Gracias• Arigato• Dank

•E se pupo