Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010

The What, Where, and How of

Climate Change Information

Ana BucherClimate Change Team

Environment Department

Climate Change and Disaster Risk Reduction

Overview

Climate Change and Disaster

Risk Reduction Information Needs

Requirements for informed

decisions

Tools for Adaptation and DRR

Additional Resources

Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010

It changes the magnitude and frequency of extreme events (coping and response mechanisms and economic planning for disasters based on past vulnerabilities may no longer suffice).

It changes average climatic conditions and climate variability, affecting underlying risk factors

it generates new threats, which a region may have no experience in dealing with.

How does Adaptation to CC and DRR relate?

Tearfund, 2008LINKING CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION AND DISASTER RISK REDUCTION

How does Climate Change (CC) affects Disaster Risk Management (DRR)?

Build resilience

Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010

Climate Risk Information NeedsEstimates impacts and adaptation actions at

different levels. Adapt to WHAT? WHEN to adapt? HOW much?

Measure effectiveness of adaptation actions in the long term under new extreme events.

Importance of data collection, analysis and improvement of climate science.

100-year flood frequency 2020

Lenher et al 2006 Climatic Change

Requirements to make Informed Decisions under climate change

1. What is expected to change in terms of Temperature and Precipitation? Historical and current variability. What are the observed trends?

2. Do we know where do we act? Evaluation of geographic extent and spatial resolution.

3. When do we act, now or later? Temporal resolution for planned activities.

4. Assessment of uncertainty and confidence in climate change projections. Adequate guidance for interpretation and application of robust actions

Climate Information AnalysesQualitative Data

(credible, reflects climate processes)

Information(measures of vulnerability and risk)

Knowledge(assessing option, understand consequences)

Action(risk management framework)

Action(Risk management framework)

•Ensure that disaster risk reduction is a national and local priority.

•Identify, assess and monitor disaster risks and enhance early warning.

•Use knowledge, innovation and education to build a culture of safety and resilience at all levels.

•Reduce the underlying risk factors (i.e natural resource management, socio-economic development, construction)

•Strengthen disaster preparedness for effective response at all levels.

Attributes of decision making in a changing climate

Responsive

Flexible Proactive

Durable

Robust

Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010

Robust decision-making under uncertainty

UK ClimateImpactsProgramme

Bring together adaptation to CC and risk management

Understand vulnerabilities, sensitivities and thresholds

Mainstream future climate risks within existing risk management processes:• strategic • operational • major projects

Source: Willows and Connell, 2003

Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010

1. What aspects of climate are you vulnerable to?

2. What data do you have or need to characterize current risks?

3. To what extent can you characterize future location and intensity of these risks?

What are your real information needs to fulfill your project objectives?

Climate Change DataWhat?Collaborative, on-line, knowledge portal with a suite of climate and climate related data and tools to support climate resilience measures at different levels and for specific user needs and contexts

Why?To facilitate access of consistent and easily accessible datasets and resources across the WB.

Access

Interpret

Use

Learn

Access

Learn

Access and Interpret

Climate Models

Historical Trends

Disasters

Impacts

Use

HOW can you use the WB CC Portal?

Location of project portfolio

Projected agriculture crop yields

Ensemble of climate models

EXAMPLES OF INTEGRATION/ANALYSIS FOR COMMUNICATION AND KNOWLEDGE SHARING

Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010

Coming soon!CC and DRR Country adaptation profiles

An operational tool for practitioners for climate and climate related information, to be later expanded with sector-specific climate risk guidance.

At a glance

<Contents here to be determined>

Xxx 67%

Xxx 67%

Xxx 67%

Xxx 67%

Dashboard Climate Baseline Climate Future Disasters

Key Sectors

Agriculture/Food Security

Coastal Zones/Marine Ecosys

Water Resources

Disasters

Biodiversity

Disasters

Mozambique DashboardWelcome

Print | Help | Explore

The context section will provide an overview of key DRR issues and climate dynamics of the country. This will include:• A disaster risk profile outlining the historical occurrence of major disasters over time, along with their impacts and existing disaster hotspots, • A general description of current climate variability and other stressors that characterize local impact and vulnerability to climate change, • A summary of National Priorities and Adaptation strategies. • A summary of the latest available socio-economic and vulnerability indicators including those available from the World Bank data portal

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Learn more...

Selected Indicators

MDG Indicators

Healthy Nutrition and Population

Climate Analysis Indicators (WRI)

Overview

The government of Mozambique recognizes that the country is vulnerable to catastrophes and that the hazards resulting from climate change are some of the factors that aggravate the situation of absolute poverty in Mozambique. With those challenges in mind, the government has developed the following priority objectives: Reduce the number of human victims and the loss of properties; Promote a culture of prevention; and; Provide the country with the means for prevention and mitigation. Mozambique is placing special emphasis on the prevention of natural disasters and improving early warning systems. Adaptation measures are being implemented in the agricultural, fisheries, energy, environmental and water sectors, with particular attention being paid to the coastal zones and erosion control.

Climate Baseline

Vulnerability Indicators

Jan

Feb

Mar

ch Apr

May Ju

n

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oc

Nov

Dec Ja

n

05

101520253035

0

50

100

150

200

250

Drought15%

Flood38%

Mass movement wet1%

Storm42%

Wildfire3%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

2223242526272829

% of Population with Access to Improved Sanitation

MozambiqueSub-Saharan Africa

Adaptation

Aggregate Governance Indicators 1996-2008

Climate Baseline Climate Future Disasters Climate Future II Adaptation

More

Adaptation Options by Sector

Priority Adaptation Projects

Strengthening Early Warning Systems

Increasing private sector resilience to climate change

Development of alternative water sources for the southern region

Current Adaptation Activities

Mozambique DashboardAdaptation

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More

Adaptation Targets?

<Content here to be determined>

xxxx

xxxx

xxxx

xxxx

SECTORS ADAPTATION OPTIONS

Agriculture/Food Security Switch to different cultivars Improve and conserve soils Agricultural research and transfer of technology Establish seed banks

Coastal Zones and Marine Ecosystems Develop Integrated Coastal Zone Management Develop planning/new investment requirements Research/monitor the coastal ecosystem

Water Resources Increase water supply, e.g. by using groundwater, building

reservoirs, improving or stabilizing watershed management, desalination

Improve or develop water management

Land ResourcesDisastersBiodiversity

At a glance

<Content to be determined>

Xxx

Xxx

Xxx

Xxx

This section will provide a list of practical examples of adaptation and disaster risk reduction in areas with similar disaster profiles. This will also outline, where available, the GFDRR Country Programming Framework – as well as any activities under the Hyogo Framework of Action. A list of key local institutions and information about their priority areas of focus as well as their active projects will also be provided (where available)

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Dashboard Climate Baseline Climate Future Disasters Climate Future II Adaptation

Key Institutions

Studies

• INGC Phase II• Africa ADAPT

Vulnerability Reduction

• Living with drought -Chicualacuala UNDP project• PPCR – World Bank

Zambezi Basin Initiative

Disaster Preparedness

More Projects.

Name Area of Work ProjectsGovernmental

INGC National Disaster Management Institute Phase I and Phase II study, 4 pilot projects on vulnerability reduction

MICOA Ministry of the Environment Coastal Zone management

SETSANSETSAN is responsible for implementing Mozambique’s Food Security and Nutrition Strategy (ESAN) and has requested FAO’s assistance for choosing indicators to help monitor progress made in reducing hunger and malnutrition.

Throughout 2005, SETSAN developed and launched a successful decentralization plan, in accordance with the Government of Mozambique’s decentralization policy

InternationalIFRC Disaster response

USAIDUSAID Programmes in Mozambique focus on the following sectors: Agriculture, Health, HIV/AIDS, and Education Zambezi Basin Initiative

Community Based Early Warning System at the Búzi River in Central Mozambique (SIDPABB)

…..

More

Vulnerability MatrixCountry/

RegionSector Hazards Impacts Vulnerabili

ty/ ExposureAdaptive capacity

Adaptation Options

Tajikistan EnergyRising

temperatures in summer

Increased demand for space cooling high Improve energy

efficiency in buildings

Decreased precipitation in

summer

Effects hydropower generation (90 % of installed capacity is hydro), BUT if these are runoff river the impact is high.

highImprove water resources management

Agriculture

Droughts (reduced summer

precipitation and increased

temperature)

Loss of crops productionReduction in livestockThreats to food security

high

Improved irrigation Introduction of modern irrigation techniques (drip irrigation, sprinkling)

Water

Increased precipitation in winter (floods)

Decreased precipitation in

summer

Loss of arable lands;Loss of crops production

high Improved flood control

Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010

Climate Change Adaptation and Risk Reduction

Red Cross/Red Crescentwww.climatecentre.org

PreventionNethttp://www.preventionweb.net/

UN International Strategy for Disaster Reductionwww.unisdr.org

Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010

Thanks!