the work of the mac mark franks head of secretariat 3 november 2009
TRANSCRIPT
The work of the MAC
Mark Franks
Head of secretariat
3 November 2009
The Migration Advisory Committee
• The MAC: what we do
• How we do it
• Results
• Next steps
• Advise Government on skilled occupations where shortages can sensibly be filled by migration
• Government also ask us to consider other issues in relation to migration
• Advice independent, evidence-based, published
• Seven members, supported by secretariat
• Work in mainly on PBS (but also EU accession)
The MAC: what we doRole and work of the MAC
• EEA – free movement of labour, with the exceptions of…
• 2004 “A8” central and eastern European countries - free to work, subject to a worker registration scheme
• MAC reviewed March 09
• 2006 Accession of Bulgaria and Romania – need a work permit (although special schemes for agriculture and food processing)
• MAC reviewed Dec 08
The MAC: what we doRole and work of the MAC
5
Tier 1 Highly skilled individuals to contribute to growth and productivity
August: Review Tier 2
November: Review Tier 1
August: Economic impact of PBS dependants
Regular reviews of shortage occupation list (Tier 2)
Tier 2 Skilled workers with a job offer to fill gaps in the UK labour force
Tier 3 Low skilled workers to fill specific temporary labour shortages (suspended)
Tier 4 Students
Tier 5 Youth and temporary: people coming to UK to satisfy primarily non-economic objectives
The MAC: what we doWork on the Points Based System (PBS)
The MAC: what we doWork on the Points Based System (PBS)
• Is there an economic case for restricting Tier 2 to shortage occupations only (August)?
• What is the Committee's assessment of the economic contribution made by the dependants of PBS migrants and their role in the labour market (August)?
• What further changes to the criteria for Tier 1 should there be in 2010/11, given the changing economic circumstances (November)?
The Migration Advisory Committee
• The MAC: what we do
• How we do it
• Results
• Next steps
How we do itShortage Occupation Lists
• Lists for the UK…
• …and Scotland only
• ‘Top-down’ …
• ….and ‘bottom-up’
• Skilled,
• Shortage and
• Sensible
How we do itAnalysis of the PBS
• Policy: principle and practice (UK and abroad)
• Context: economy, immigration, current system
• Experience: old work permit system, Highly Skilled Migrant Programme, international
• Theory: skilled immigration, economic downturn
• Impact: contribution to economy, LM outcomes, incentives, enforcement
How we do itAnalysis of the Tier 2
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 85 95 105 115 125 more
Annual pay+allow ances (thousands)
No.
of c
ertif
icat
es is
sued
in p
ay b
and
Intra-company transfer
Resident Labour Market Test
Shortage occupation
Distribution of prospective earnings for jobs under Tier 2 Nov 2008 – May 2009
•Note: Summary statistics are rounded to the nearest hundred pounds. Analysis is based on used certificates of sponsorship issued under Tier 2. Prospective earnings are annual, including both the basic salary and allowance. Around 5 per cent of salaries were not stated on an annual basis; assumptions have been made to calculate annual pay, and those with allowances on a non-annual salary are excluded for data quality issues. Where the salary period is not stated (for example contract or performance related pay). These are excluded from the analysis. Chart shows the number of certificates issued for jobs that fall within increments of £5,000. The x axis shows the maximum for each earnings increment.•Source: UKBA management information, Nov 2008 – May 2009
• Need 75 points:
• General: age under 28 (20); PhD (50); studied in UK (5)
• General: age 30-31 (5); masters (35); £30k (30); earnings in UK (5)
• General: masters (35); earnings in UK £35k-£40k (40)
• Post-study: degree or above or PGCE or HND (Scotland) (75)
• Entrepreneur: £200k; disposable in UK; regulated institution (75)
• Investor: £1m own money or £2m personal assets + £1m loan (75)
• Plus 20 points
• English (10) and maintenance (10)
• Except investor route
How we do itTier 1 current policy (under review)
The Migration Advisory Committee
• The MAC: what we do
• How we do it
• Results
• Next steps
ResultsAnalysis of Tier 2 and dependants
• Tier 2: automatic stabiliser, favours skilled immigration
• Points: amend to better target skilled labour• RLMT: retain, longer advertising duration,
certification • Intra-company transfers: retain, focus on key
personnel and graduate trainees, enforcement• Dependants: do not restrict work rights, but
poor evidence
ResultsAnalysis of Tier 2Durations of Jobcentre Plus vacancy outflows by occupational skill level, 2008
•Note: Vacancy durations describe the time between a vacancy being opened and closed by JCP. Skill levels defined in the Standard Occupational Classification: level 1 represents the lowest skill level and level 4 the highest. Vacancy outflow includes both those filled by JCP and withdrawn from JCP. These levels are related to, but differ from, the MAC definition of skilled and unskilled.•Source: JCP vacancy outflows by 4-digit occupation, 2008 (Nomis, 2009)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Less than 1 w eek
1 - under 2 w eeks
2 - under 4 w eeks
4 - under 8 w eeks
8 - under 13 w eeks
Longer
Per cent of vacancy outflow
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Skill level 4
Skill level 3
Skill level 2
Skill level 1
Total
• Tier 1 general
– Earnings thresholds
– Qualifications
– Salary multipliers
• Post-study route
– Leave durations
– Institutions and courses
• Investors and entrepreneurs
– Financial thresholds
Results(Forthcoming) analysis of Tier 1
The Migration Advisory Committee
• The MAC: what we do
• How we do it
• Results
• Next steps
• Shortage occupations
– Published autumn review 21 October
– Reviews in spring & autumn 2010
• Review of elements of the PBS
– Publish Tier 1 report in November
• Talk to us…
– www.ukba.homeoffice.gov.uk/mac
– 0208 604 607
Next stepsCommunication from us, and with us