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Document of
The World Bank
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Report No: PAD686
INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION
PROJECT APPRAISAL DOCUMENT
ON A PROPOSED TRUST FUND GRANT FROM THE STRATEGIC CLIMATE FUND (SCF) – PILOT
PROGRAM FOR CLIMATE RESILIENCE (PPCR)
IN THE AMOUNT OF US$14.6 MILLION
TO THE
INDEPENDENT STATE OF SAMOA
FOR AN
ENHANCING THE CLIMATE RESILIENCE OF COASTAL RESOURCES AND COMMUNITIES PROJECT
November 15, 2013
Timor Leste, Papua New Guinea and Pacific Islands Country Department Sustainable Development Department East and Asia Pacific Region
This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.
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CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS
Exchange Rate Effective, October 3, 2013
Currency Unit = Samoan Tala 2.4 Tala = US$1
FISCAL YEAR January 1 – December 31
ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS
AF Adaptation Fund CBA Cost-Benefit Analysis CBS Central Bank of Samoa CEP Community Engagement Plan CIF Climate Investment Fund CIM Coastal Infrastructure Management CPEIR Climate Public Expenditure and Institutional Review CPS Country Partnership Strategy CRICU Climate Resilience Investment Coordination Unit CRIP Climate Resilience Investment Program CSIRO Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization CSO Civil Society Organization CSSP Civil Society Support Program DA Designated Account DLA Damage and Loss Assessment DRM Disaster Risk Management DRR Disaster Risk Reduction EACC Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change ECR Enhancing the Climate Resilience of Coastal Resources and Communities EMP Environmental Management Plan EWS Early Warning System GCM Global Climate Model IAMP Infrastructure Asset Management Project IPF Investment Project Financing LARF Land Acquisition and Resettlement Framework LDC Least Developed Country LDCF Least Developed Country Fund LiDAR Light Detection and Ranging LTA Land Transport Authority MAF Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries MNRE Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment MOF Ministry of Finance
MWCSD Ministry of Women, Community and Social Development NAPA National Adaptation Plan of Action NCAR National Center for Atmospheric Research NSCRS National Strategy for a Climate-Resilient Samoa NZAP New Zealand Aid Program OM Operations Manual PCRAFI Pacific Catastrophic Risk Assessment and Financing PDNA Post-Disaster Needs Assessment PMU Program Management Unit PPCR Pilot Program for Climate Resilience PUMA Planning and Urban Management Agency RAP Resettlement Action Plan SCF Strategic Climate Fund SDS Strategy for the Development of Samoa SIAM Samoa Infrastructure Asset Management Project SNC Second National Communication SPCR Strategic Program for Climate Resilience UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change V&A Vulnerability and Adaptation
Regional Vice President: Axel van Trotsenburg Country Director: Franz Drees-Gross
Sector Director: John Roome Sector Manager: Michel Kerf
Task Team Leader: Samuel Wedderburn
INDEPENDENT STATE OF SAMOA
Enhancing the Climate Resilience of Coastal Resources and Communities
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
I. STRATEGIC CONTEXT .................................................................................................1
A. Country Context ............................................................................................................ 1
B. Sectoral and Institutional Context ................................................................................. 1
C. Higher-Level Objectives to Which the Project Contributes ......................................... 5
II. PROJECT DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVE ..................................................................6
A. PDO............................................................................................................................... 6
B. Project Beneficiaries ..................................................................................................... 6
C. PDO-Level Results Indicators ...................................................................................... 6
III. PROJECT DESCRIPTION ..............................................................................................6
A. Project Components ...................................................................................................... 6
B. Project Financing .......................................................................................................... 9
C. Project Cost and Financing ........................................................................................... 9
IV. IMPLEMENTATION .....................................................................................................11
A. Institutional and Implementation Arrangements ........................................................ 11
B. Results Monitoring and Evaluation ............................................................................ 13
C. Sustainability............................................................................................................... 14
V. KEY RISKS AND MITIGATION MEASURES ..........................................................14
A. Risk Ratings Summary Table ..................................................................................... 14
B. Overall Risk Rating Explanation ................................................................................ 15
VI. APPRAISAL SUMMARY ..............................................................................................15
A. Economic and Financial Analysis ............................................................................... 15
B. Technical ..................................................................................................................... 17
C. Financial Management ................................................................................................ 18
D. Procurement ................................................................................................................ 19
E. Social (including Safeguards) ..................................................................................... 19
F. Environment (including Safeguards) .......................................................................... 21
Annex 1: Results Framework and Monitoring .........................................................................23
Annex 2: Detailed Project Description .......................................................................................28
Annex 3: Implementation Arrangements ..................................................................................39
Annex 4: Operational Risk Assessment Framework (ORAF) .................................................58
Annex 5: Implementation Support Plan ....................................................................................64
Annex 6: Economic and Financial Analysis ..............................................................................67
MAP ............................................................................................................................................77
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.
PAD DATA SHEET
Independent State of Samoa
Enhancing the Climate Resilience of Coastal Resources and Communities (P126596)
PROJECT APPRAISAL DOCUMENT .
EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC
EASNS
Report No.: PAD686.
Basic Information
Project ID Lending Instrument EA Category Team Leader
P126596 Investment Project Financing
B - Partial Assessment Samuel G. Wedderburn
Project Implementation Start Date Project Implementation End Date
31-Jan-2014 31-Dec-2018
Expected Effectiveness Date Expected Closing Date
30-Apr-2014 31-Dec-2018
Joint IFC
No
Sector Manager Sector Director Country Director Regional Vice President
Michel Kerf John A. Roome Franz R. Drees-Gross Axel van Trotsenburg .
Borrower: Ministry of Finance .
Approval Authority
Approval Authority
Board/AOB Decision
.
Project Financing Data(in USD Million)
[ ] Loan [ ] Grant [ X ] Other
[ ] Credit [ ] Guarantee
Total Project Cost: 14.60 Total Bank Financing: 0.00
Financing Gap: 0.00 .
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Financing Source Amount
Borrower 0.00
Strategic Climate Fund Grant 14.60
Total 14.60.
Expected Disbursements (in USD Million)
Fiscal Year
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Annual 0.00 2.86 3.21 3.19 2.73 2.61
Cumulative
0.00 2.86 6.07 9.26 11.99 14.60
.
Proposed Development Objective(s)
The project development objective is to support coastal communities to become more resilient to climate variability and change. .
Components
Component Name Cost (USD Millions)
Implementation of Priority Adaptation Measures to Manage Climate and Disaster-related Threats
10.20
Strengthened Climate Information Services 1.50
Institutional strengthening for climate and disaster resilience, project coordination and monitoring
2.90
.
Institutional Data
Sector Board
Environment .
Sectors / Climate Change
Sector (Maximum 5 and total % must equal 100)
Major Sector Sector % Adaptation Co-benefits %
Mitigation Co-benefits %
Agriculture, fishing, and forestry General agriculture, fishing and forestry sector
100 100
Total 100
I certify that there is no Adaptation and Mitigation Climate Change Co-benefits information
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applicable to this project. .
Themes
Theme (Maximum 5 and total % must equal 100)
Major theme Theme %
Environment and natural resources management
Climate change 100
Total 100 .
Compliance
Policy
Does the project depart from the CAS in content or in other significant respects?
Yes [ ] No [ X ]
.
Does the project require any waivers of Bank policies? Yes [ ] No [ X ]
Have these been approved by Bank management? Yes [ ] No [ ]
Is approval for any policy waiver sought from the Board? Yes [ ] No [ X ]
Does the project meet the Regional criteria for readiness for implementation? Yes [ X ] No [ ] .
Safeguard Policies Triggered by the Project Yes No
Environmental Assessment OP/BP 4.01 X
Natural Habitats OP/BP 4.04 X
Forests OP/BP 4.36 X
Pest Management OP 4.09 X
Physical Cultural Resources OP/BP 4.11 X
Indigenous Peoples OP/BP 4.10 X
Involuntary Resettlement OP/BP 4.12 X
Safety of Dams OP/BP 4.37 X
Projects on International Waterways OP/BP 7.50 X
Projects in Disputed Areas OP/BP 7.60 X .
Legal Covenants
Name Recurrent Due Date Frequency
Community Engagement Plan Six months after Grant signing
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Description of Covenant
The Recipient shall prepare, under terms of reference satisfactory to the World Bank, and furnish to the World Bank, a plan containing detailed guidelines and procedures for the implementation of the Project at community level, including arrangements for community procurement, eligibility and selection criteria for Beneficiaries.
Name Recurrent Due Date Frequency
Sub-projects X Monthly
Description of Covenant
Under Part 1(b) of the Project, the Recipient shall provide Sub-grants to Beneficiaries to implement Sub-projects in accordance with eligibility criteria and procedures acceptable to the World Bank and specified in the Community Engagement Plan once said Plan has been accepted by the World Bank. ok.
Conditions
Name Type
Description of Condition
Team Composition
Bank Staff
Name Title Specialization Unit
Samuel G. Wedderburn Sr. Natural Resources Mgmt. Spec.
Team Lead EASER
Miriam Witana Procurement Specialist Procurement Specialist EASR1
Habiba Gitay Senior Environmental Specialist
Senior Environmental Specialist
CPFPT
Marjorie Mpundu Senior Counsel Senior Counsel LEGES
Victoria Florian S. Lazaro
Operations Officer Operations Officer EASPS
Gerardo F. Parco Senior Operations Officer
Operations Officer EASPS
Stephen Paul Hartung Financial Management Specialist
Financial Management Specialist
EASFM
R. Cynthia Dharmajaya Program Assistant Program Assistant EASER
Nathan Hale Program Assistant Program Assistant EACNF
Robert J. Gilfoyle Sr Financial Sr Financial EASFM
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Management Specialist Management Specialist
Michael Bonte-Grapentin
Disaster Risk Management Specialist
Disaster Risk Management Specialist
EASNS
Non Bank Staff
Name Title Office Phone City
William Cuddihy Consultant
Douglas Forno Institutional Specialist Cairns, Australia
Andrew K. Hurd Coastal Resources Management Specialist
Bangkok, Thailand
Beverly Ann Mclean Social Safeguards Consultant
Wellington, New Zealand
Chris Manu Coastal Engineer Bangkok, Thailand
Ursula Kaly Coastal Ecologist .
Locations
Country First Administrative Division
Location Planned Actual Comments
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I. STRATEGIC CONTEXT
A. Country Context
1. The Independent State of Samoa (Samoa) is a small and remote island economy comprising four inhabited islands with a population of about 187,000 (2011 Census). It is one of the world’s 48 Least Developed Countries (LDCs), with a GDP per capita of around US$2,900 (2011). Although Samoa’s economic performance has been well above the average for comparable island countries, “…its small size, limited natural resources, narrowly based economy, distance to major markets, and vulnerability to exogenous shocks, impose speed limits on growth and have led to a high degree of volatility in recent economic performance” (Country Partnership Strategy 2012). 2. Seventy per cent of Samoa’s population lives within 1 km of the coast, and critical infrastructure (hospitals, schools, port facilities, power plants, airports, tourist infrastructure) is also located in this zone. Approximately 80 percent of the 403 km coastline is sensitive or highly sensitive to erosion, flooding or landslides; thus weather and climate-related extreme events (tropical cyclones, storm surges, droughts) and natural disasters threaten Samoa’s development. Rapid economic and urban growth is predominantly in coastal areas, further increasing the exposure of people and assets to climate-related hazards. Impacts of tropical cyclones are of immediate and ongoing concern, as they exacerbate coastal erosion; endanger life and well-being, and adversely impact infrastructure, agriculture, reefs, fishing and tourism.
B. Sectoral and Institutional Context
3. The expected effects of climate variability and change on Samoa include more frequent and heavy rainfall events, increasingly lengthy dry spells, recurring drought events, hotter days, rising sea levels, extreme winds and extreme high air and water temperatures (Climate Risk Profile 2007, referenced in the Second National Communication to UNFCCC 2009). Projections of changes in Samoa’s climate indicate that by 2050, the sea level is likely to have increased by 360 mm, annual average rainfall by 1 percent, extreme wind gusts by 7 percent, and maximum ambient surface temperatures by 0.7 ºC. The observed long-term trend in relative sea level for the capital city, Apia, is 5.2mm/yr., and the maximum sea level is increasing by approximately 8 mm/yr., a rate far in excess of the observed local and global trends in mean sea level.
4. The Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change (EACC) country study for Samoa1 used projections of climate variables downscaled from the results of the two (NCAR and CSIRO) global climate models (GCMs).2 The temperature is projected to rise by 0.8 to 1°C by 2050. The projections for rainfall are more variable but show some consistency in seasonal distribution, with the dry season becoming drier and the transitional months of the wet season becoming wetter. The EACC study drew two inferences from the Global Wet and Dry Scenarios: (a) the 1 Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change, World Bank 2011. 2 Ibid.
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severity – and perhaps the frequency – of El Nino-like droughts is likely to increase, especially under the Global Wet scenario; and (b) the severity (wind speeds) of major cyclones may increase and the return periods of the most damaging cyclones may decrease, leading to a significant increase in the average damage caused by cyclones that hit Samoa.
5. A key lesson from the EACC study is that extreme weather variability in the coastal zone is likely to lead to large costs, whether they be in the form of hard coastal protection measures and continued road (and other infrastructure) replacement, or the costs associated with relocation of critical infrastructure and even entire villages. This lesson was brought into sharp focus by Cyclone Evan, which struck Samoa in December 2012 with devastating results. The impacts were severe, with flooding along the Vaisigano River killing at least five people, temporarily displacing 7,500, damaging more than 2,000 houses, and leaving more than 600 unsafe for habitation. Evan also caused severe damage to the power plant, cutting power for all of Samoa for weeks and disrupting communication services and water facilities. Strong winds destroyed crops, trees, buildings and roads.
6. A Post-Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA3) was undertaken by the Government of Samoa with support from the World Bank, the UN, and other partners. The Damage and Loss Assessment (DLA) estimated total losses at US$210 million, or about 30 percent of annual GDP. Recovery, reconstruction and disaster risk reduction (DRR) needs were assessed at US$200 million, and human resources needs at US$70 million. Furthermore, the impact of the cyclone is expected to reduce growth in calendar year 2013 from a pre-cyclone forecast of 2 percent to 0.9 percent. A central recommendation of the Human/Social Impact Assessment chapter of the PDNA was the need to mobilize communities and villages to more effectively prepare for and manage the risks of natural hazards and climate variability and change.
7. While the Government has shown a strong commitment to addressing climate variability and change and disaster preparedness and response, the legal, policy and regulatory framework remains sectoral and disjointed in nature. The National Climate Change Policy is being updated, and preparation of a draft National Climate Change Plan and Program was supported under the first Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR) grant, but a more robust policy that addresses climate change mitigation, climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction needs to be developed under a single framework. Resilience to climate variability and change and natural disasters could then be integrated into the policies, regulations and operations of key sectors, including agriculture, transport, health and tourism. Better information flow at the national level, and coordination between the national and local levels, would assist all agencies and communities to incorporate risk assessment and planning into their operations and activities.
8. The National Climate Change Country Team (NCCCT), established in 1995, provides coordination of climate-related activities. This covers initiatives funded by donors as well as
3 http://www.gfdrr.org/sites/gfdrr.org/files/SAMOA_PDNA_Cyclone_Evan_2012.pdf.
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through the national budget. Key members of the NCCCT are the Chief Executive Officers of relevant government ministries and representatives of civil society and the private sector. The Ministry of Finance coordinates the flow of, and accountability for, financial resources, while the Ministry of Foreign Affairs coordinates interactions with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and other international and regional institutions. Samoa signed the Convention in 1992. The Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MNRE) is responsible for developing the key policy and planning documents that guide climate change programs in Samoa. The MNRE is the agency responsible for the overall oversight of the implementation of Samoa‘s adaptation activities. Implementation is carried out by relevant ministries. The MNRE also plays a major role in developing strategies and policies and coordinating adaptation measures. Other key Government agencies include the Ministry of Health, the Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries, the Samoa Water Authority (SWA), Ministry of Works, Transport and Infrastructure (MWTI) and the Electric Power Corporation (EPC).
9. Awareness and capacity for disaster and climate risk management at all levels is weak due to limited resources and skills base, as highlighted by the National Progress Report on the Implementation of the Hyogo Framework for Action (2011-2013) and the Situation Analysis conducted during PPCR Phase 1. Responsible designated agencies, institutions and offices at the local level do not have the capacity to enforce risk reduction regulations; and local institutions, village communities, volunteers and urban resident welfare associations are not properly trained. Many of the capacity-building initiatives in Samoa have targeted agencies at the national level. However, civil society organizations (CSOs) could play an important role in liaising with village-level structures, and have the potential to deliver awareness raising and capacity development activities at the local level and support local implementation of national adaptation/DRM activities.
10. The Government’s efforts to reduce the climate-related vulnerability of coastal infrastructure began with a World Bank-supported program in 1999 that aimed to develop a strategy for participatory management of coastal infrastructure which integrated environmental and storm hazard considerations, priority investments in coastal protection, and the updating of information and maps. Through the Samoa Infrastructure Asset Management Project (SIAM) I and II, a Coastal Infrastructure Management (CIM) Strategy – a national-level policy – was developed, and CIM Plans were prepared for each of the 41 districts (283 villages) in the country. These plans have the potential to be transformational in that they assess, for the first time, the resilience of coastal infrastructure to flooding, coastal erosion and landslides. They also identify potential solutions and assign responsibility for implementation. To date, very few CIM Plans have been implemented, mainly due to financial and capacity constraints. The Bank-funded EACC study, which analyzed the status of adaptation action, recommended (a) a review and updating of the CIM Plans and a program for undertaking them and in the longer term; and (b) consideration and discussion of relocation of key assets out of hazard zones.
11. A number of documents and strategies have called for interventions on climate change adaptation and disaster risk management in Samoa:
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The National Adaptation Plan of Action (NAPA) of 2005 provides the overall framework for identifying, prioritizing and supporting adaptation work in Samoa.
The Strategy for the Development of Samoa (SDS) for 2012-2016 also identifies climate change adaptation as one of the goals for the coming planning cycle.
The Draft National Strategy for a Climate Resilient Samoa (NSCRS) of August 2012 addressed the need to integrate resilience across all identified priority areas. As almost all sectors are affected by climate change, the draft report recommends an “overarching focus on resilience across all priority areas and integral to all key sector-based outcomes” in the next SDS.
A similar view, although focusing more on disaster risk reduction, is suggested in the Samoa National Action Plan for Disaster Risk Management 2011-2016.
All sector plans call for proper coordination of effort and ownership by sector agencies, to be reflected in agency budget commitments.
The recent Climate Public Expenditure and Institutional Review (CPEIR) all of these findings and recommendations.
12. Donors have responded to these needs with a number of initiatives, including the Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR), which is a Multi-Donor Trust Fund under the Strategic Climate Fund (SCF) of the Climate Investment Funds (CIF). The first phase of the PPCR, which ended in March 2013, supported the preparation of five analytical studies, including a Situation Analysis of policies and institutions involved in climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction, and a Capacity Assessment of CSOs. It also supported preparation of Samoa’s Strategic Program for Climate Resilience (SPCR), known in Samoa as the Climate Resilience Investment Program (CRIP), which identified the need for the proposed project4 – Enhancing the Climate Resilience of Coastal Resources and Communities (ECR). This project will be supported under the second phase of the PPCR.5 13. The proposed project strongly supports and is consistent with the PPCR objective of piloting and demonstrating transformational ways to integrate climate risk and resilience into core development planning, while complementing other ongoing activities. PPCR Phase I encouraged the GoS to change the focus from infrastructure to more integrated community planning, to enable the CIM Plan approach to build on the governance and decision-making functions embedded within traditional community structures. The move towards community-led implementation of the CIM Plans, both in inland and in coastal communities, is aimed at combining environmental, social and economic responses to changing climate, in order to produce sustainable and transformative changes in the ways Samoans interact with their environment. An approach that combines enhancing social capital and skills, using CSOs to fast-
4 With PPCR support, the CRIP was developed as a broad-based strategy for achieving climate resilience at the national level in the medium and longer term, using as its basis the Strategy for the Development of Samoa, the NAPA, and other policy and planning instruments. The CRIP identified key challenges related to vulnerability to climate change and variability, notably the damaging effects of floods, strong winds, high seas, coral bleaching and droughts, all of which are having major impacts on lives and livelihoods, and are delaying Samoa’s progress toward achieving the Millennium Development Goals. 5 Phase 2 of the PPCR is also supporting another project identified in the CRIP, Enhancing the Climate Resilience of the West Coast Road, effective since March 2013.
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track implementation and provide continued support to communities, will contribute to enhancing the climate resilience of communities over the short and longer term. 14. The proposed project would also complement the multiple ongoing and planned climate resilience projects in Samoa,6 and improve coordination among them through an M&E framework at the programmatic level. The ECR would also support updating and implementation of CIM Plans7; as well as development of a process to consider climate-related risks to key assets and communities, and options to reduce those risks. C. Higher-Level Objectives to Which the Project Contributes
15. The proposed ECR project supports the Government of Samoa’s Strategy for the Development of Samoa (SDS) 2012-2016, which focuses on strengthening economic resilience and encouraging inclusive growth. Two key pillars of the strategy are to strengthen climate resilience of the country as a whole (Priority Area 4, Key Outcome 14), and enhance the resilience of communities to the impact of climate change and natural disasters (Priority Area 2, Key Outcome 8.2).8 The ECR project also supports the higher-level objectives identified in Samoa’s CRIP; namely, (a) to pilot interventions that represent scaled-up action and deliver transformational change in how climate-related risks are managed in Samoa; and (b) to promote a longer-term, programmatic approach that integrates considerations of climate resilience in national development planning and implementation in ways that are consistent with national poverty reduction and sustainable development goals.
16. The ECR project is one of the proposed investments included in the Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) for Samoa 2012, one of the main themes of which is building resilience to natural disasters and climate change. The project will build on the Bank’s successful engagement since 1999 in supporting disaster mitigation and rehabilitation in the country. It is consistent with the Bank’s broader approach among the small and remote Pacific Island Countries, and responds to the need for immediate action to reduce disaster risks and the threat 6 Other ongoing or planned climate resilience projects in Samoa include:
an Early Warning System (EWS) enhancement project, supported by New Zealand Aid Program (NZAP); the Enhancing Resilience of Samoa’s Coastal Communities project, supported by UNDP and the
Adaptation Fund (UNDP-AF) and leveraged with PPCR funding; the Economy-wide Integration of Climate Change Adaptation and DRM/DRR project, supported by
GEF/Least Develop Country Fund (LDCF)/UNDP and leveraged with PPCR funding; this project will address the gaps identified in the PPCR Phase 1 Situation Analysis report by supporting the mainstreaming of climate change adaptation and DRM in national policy frameworks and development planning.
the Agriculture and Fisheries Cyclone Response Project, an emergency response operation supported by the World Bank.
7 The UNDP-Adaptation Fund project will also support updating and implementation of CIM Plans in the 25 districts not covered by the ECR. 8 The Government’s recent shift in focus from infrastructure to more integrated community planning, encouraged by Phase 1 of the PPCR, makes the CIM Plan approach even more innovative and relevant than originally envisioned. With its local governance and decision making embedded within traditional community structures, Samoa’s move towards a move towards community-led implementation of CIM Plans in both inland and coastal communities, using CSOs to fast track environmental, social and economic responses to a changing climate, has the potential to produce sustainable and transformative changes in the country’s level of climate resilience.
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of climate change, as articulated in the Policy and Practice Note for Climate and Disaster Resilient Development for the Pacific Region (2012). The proposed project will build on the Bank’s accumulated years of experience with climate change adaptation in Samoa and other countries in the region, including Kiribati and Vanuatu.
II. PROJECT DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVE
A. PDO
17. The project development objective is to support coastal communities to become more resilient to climate variability and change. B. Project Beneficiaries
18. The project would directly benefit at least 50 percent of 89,300 people in the 16 targeted districts (which include the 8 districts participating in the World Bank/PPCR-supported West Coast Road project). Local CSOs would receive information and training on climate and disaster risk management, and the CSOs would in turn train residents in the 16 districts. The agencies participating in implementation will also develop stronger capacity to manage climate risk. These include, in addition to MNRE, the Ministry of Finance (MOF); the Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries (MAF); the Ministry of Women, Community and Social Development (MWCSD); the Ministry of Works, Transport and Infrastructure (MWTI); the Samoa Water Authority (SWA); and the Land Transport Authority (LTA). C. PDO-Level Results Indicators
19. Achievement of the development objective will be assessed through the following indicators:
Number of direct project beneficiaries, with a separate sub-indicator for women;
Percentage of sub-projects with climate/disaster resilience satisfactorily implemented, based on a scoring system;
Areas restored or reforested to combat coastal erosion, siltation, and run-off damage to reefs, with sub-indicators for different types of vegetation.
III. PROJECT DESCRIPTION
A. Project Components 20. The proposed project will develop and implement immediate and urgent activities to: (a) assist the population of Samoa in adapting to climate variability and climate change; (b) protect people’s lives and livelihoods, coastal and inland infrastructure, and the environment; and (c)
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increase awareness of climate change impacts and adaptation activities in communities, civil society and local government. The project will promote a broad ecosystem-based approach that recognizes the importance of functioning ecosystems for enhancing communities’ resilience to climate-related impacts and that manages risks through green or nature-based approaches and interventions that can be combined with hard infrastructure where necessary. The project will therefore be concerned with all natural hazards rather than just coastal-associated hazards, and look to assess vulnerabilities and solutions on a ridge-to-reef basis, recognizing the fundamental link between processes occurring in different parts of the catchment. The project’s three components are summarized below and further detailed in Annex 2. Component 1: Implementation of Priority Adaptation Measures to Manage Climate and Disaster-related Threats (US$10.2m) 21. This component will support a program of activities designed to strengthen the adaptive capacity of communities, and increase the resilience of coastlines, near-shore areas, and coral reefs (including the productivity of reef ecosystems) to climate change risks. It will support the implementation of priority community adaptation measures derived from revised Coastal Infrastructure Management (CIM) Plans9 and other community planning frameworks to include:
a) Sub-component 1: Participatory Prioritization of Disaster Risks and Adaptation Options (US$0.8m). In the 16 targeted districts, updating CIM Plans through a participatory process to include, inter-alia, integration with other management plans such as Disaster Risk Management, Village Sustainable Development, and Watershed Management. Adaptation options will be prioritized, and sub-projects aimed at strengthening resilience will be prepared. Experienced CSOs, together with technical specialists from line agencies, will provide facilitation and undertake vulnerability and adaptation (V&A) assessments, utilizing the latest data (including data to be generated under Component 2.2) and innovative approaches to assist communities in identifying climate risks and appropriate responses.
b) Sub-component 2: Sub-grants for implementing priority climate resilience measures (US$9.4m). This sub-component will provide sub-grants to finance implementation of eligible subprojects prepared under sub-component 1 above. Small grants of up to WST$50,000 (US$22,720) will be provided directly to community groups for village-level projects through the existing Civil Society Support Program,10 in accordance with the provisions of a Community Engagement Plan (described under component 2.1) and its community procurement procedures. Larger grants of up to WST$500,000 (US$227,200) per activity would be provided through line agencies for
9 Detailed procedures for review, revision and implementation of CIM Plans were developed during project preparation and are described in the Project Operational Manual. 10 The Civil Society Support Program is a grant funding mechanism established in 2010 by government with the support of NZAP. It pools donor funds for civil society programs and makes it easier for civil society groups to access resources under a common application process and reporting requirements. It is directed by an independent Steering Committee chaired by MOF.
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larger and more complex projects covering several villages. An indicative menu of adaptation options is provided in Annex 2.
Component 2: Strengthened Climate Information Services (US$1.5m) 22. This component will carry out a program of activities designed to increase public awareness of climate change issues and to improve the availability and use of data for risk analysis, hazard mapping and knowledge sharing. This program will include:
a) Sub-component 1: CSO training, national and local-level education and awareness-raising on climate resilience (US$0.3m). The project will support: (i) provision of training to civil society organizations aimed at enhancing their capacity for delivery of climate change related services; and (ii) development of a Community Engagement Plan (CEP) and a communications strategy aimed at raising awareness of climate resilience. The training will utilize the data and information generated under sub-component 2 below; CSOs will then utilize this information to assist communities in making informed resilience decisions based on community needs/demands. Based on the CEP, the CSOs will assist communities in designing, applying for funding, and implementing simple community-based adaptation activities.
b) Sub-component 2: Strengthened data platforms (US$1.2m). This sub-component will support strengthening data platforms for spatial hazard mapping through financing of a comprehensive light detection and ranging system (LiDAR) throughout the country.
Component 3: Institutional Strengthening for Climate and Disaster Resilience, Project Coordination and Monitoring (US$2.9m) 23. This component will finance a program of activities designed to strengthen the capacity of the Government for Project management, coordination and monitoring, including: development of an institutional framework setting forth a programmatic approach to climate change and disaster resilience and support towards establishment and maintenance of the Project Management Unit (PMU). The Framework will be integrated with existing government structures and procedures, including the PPCR Steering Committee set up under PPCR Phase 1, which will provide overall policy guidance and supervision for the project. 24. The project will provide resources to hire (a) a Project Manager; (b) a Financial Management Specialist; (c) a Procurement Specialist; (d) an Environmental Specialist; (e) an M&E Specialist; and (f) an M&E data entry clerk, together with (g) a Program Assistant. The Government will provide counterpart staff to work with and learn from the Project Manager and M&E Specialist. Additionally, the project will provide for some three person-years of short-term technical assistance (Coastal Engineer, Coastal Geo-morphologist, Ecosystems Specialist, Climate Change Specialist, GIS and database specialists) to undertake the revalidation of CIM Plans. The M&E Specialists will also support country-level reporting as required by the PPCR.
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B. Project Financing 25. The project is designed as an Investment Project funded through a grant from the Strategic Climate Fund–Pilot Program for Climate Resilience. C. Project Cost and Financing
Table 1 Project Costs
Project Components Project cost (US$m) PPCR Financing
1. Implementation of priority adaptation measures to manage climate and disaster-related threats 2. Strengthened Climate Information Services 3. Institutional strengthening for climate and disaster resilience; project coordination and monitoring
10.2 1.5 2.9
10.2 1.5 2.9
Total Project Costs
14.6 14.6
Lessons Learned and Reflected in the Project Design 26. The project design has benefited from best practices and evaluations from other adaptation, community-driven development and disaster risk management projects, including the recent comprehensive evaluation of World Bank Group experience with respect to adaptation to climate change by IEG.11 Lessons from these evaluations include the need for the Government and donors to:
support institutional arrangements that can sustain the project beyond its funding horizon; ensure that adaptation projects are not stand alone but part of a broader set of actions, and
that lessons are systematically absorbed into government plans and policies; balance short-term and tangible responses that improve livelihoods and well-being with
those that could be transformational over the longer term by influencing land use planning, promoting innovation, and connecting stakeholders with expert knowledge;
increase the understanding of climate risks to allow for informed decision-making and planning (e.g., about where to expand future infrastructure);
develop robust monitoring frameworks; and explore financial mechanisms to manage climate risks over the long term.
11 Adapting to Climate Change: Assessing the World Bank Group Experience – Phase III. Independent Evaluation Group 2012.
10
At the institutional level, emerging experience suggests that coordinating institutions need to be elevated to a level where they can have effective convening power over line ministries, rather than replace their implementation role. 27. The project design also drew considerably from lessons learned from development of the CIM Plans under SIAM-1 and SIAM-2. The initial CIM Plans concentrated primarily on coastal hazards of flooding, erosion and landslides, and identified infrastructure vulnerable to these hazards by the year 2100 and potential solutions to reduce this vulnerability. The CIM Plans produced under SIAM-2 incorporated emergency management and disaster risk reduction, but none of the Plans systematically address risks from climate change over the short or longer term. CSOs and communities have called for the inclusion of inland as well as coastal areas in the CIM Plans, and for the rapid implementation of these Plans; both are part of the project design.
28. The work done under PPCR Phase I, including the preparation studies for this project, along with the Adaptation Fund project document, have highlighted the fact that engaging CSOs is an effective way to mainstream climate change into community-level planning. This is a central part of the project design. Experience has also shown that building on ongoing initiatives and operational practices minimizes the time required to achieve results, and encourages communities to stay engaged. The project therefore builds on the robust implementation experiences of SIAM-2 (CIM Plan development, community mobilization) and several community-based climate resilience projects. 29. Lessons have also been incorporated from several community-focused projects implemented in Samoa by other donors, primarily UNDP. The Community-Based Adaptation Project, supported through the GEF Small Grants Program, aimed to reduce the vulnerability of three villages and their ecosystems to the adverse impacts of climate change, by building community capacity and providing the necessary infrastructure to protect livelihoods and ecosystems. Valuable lessons were learned about how to raise community awareness of adaptation, and how to implement combinations of green (vegetation replanting) and hard (rock wall strengthening) adaptation measures. Similar experience with coastal replanting to reinforce structural preventive measures such as seawalls was gained from implementation of the Tsunami Recovery Project. Finally, the rural appraisal participatory techniques successfully applied during the Community-Centered Sustainable Development project delivered through MWCSD will provide valuable lessons for the CIM Plan reviews to be undertaken by the proposed project. 30. Drawing on these and other lessons learned, the Climate Resilience Investment Coordination Unit (CRICU) in the Ministry of Finance was designed during PPCR Phase 1 to be a facilitation and overall coordination unit, with implementation left to line ministries, CSOs, and decentralized structures. Moreover, a phased and flexible approach has been incorporated in the design of the ECR project to allow for an active process of learning-by-doing, and ensure that investments and climate risk planning are well coordinated and have political support. 31. Experience from community-level adaptation initiatives and development projects in Vanuatu, Kiribati, Zambia, Kenya and Ethiopia has shown that investing in physical infrastructure is much easier than creating the behavioral changes necessary to reinforce adaptive capacity. The project will therefore invest resources in an awareness campaign at the national and community levels, and will actively engage traditional community leaders and district-level
11
churches and business associations to influence behavior change. Based on international experience, the project will also invest in providing climate and adaptation information to communities and local decision-makers, to enable them to make informed decisions about long-term adaptation choices.
IV. IMPLEMENTATION
A. Institutional and Implementation Arrangements
32. The key features of the proposed institutional arrangements to be supported under the project are listed below, and further detailed in Annex 3:
a) The Institutional Framework provides for a programmatic approach to climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction, thereby facilitating synergies among various projects and funding sources.
b) The arrangements will be able to accommodate and respond efficiently to the varying administrative and reporting requirements of different bilateral or multilateral donors, if, as envisaged, all climate adaptation activities in Samoa are eventually brought under this Framework.
c) Capacity constraints of implementing agencies will be specifically addressed through both short-term arrangements and provision for longer-term capacity building.
d) The Institutional Framework is built around existing Government structures and processes, and provides opportunities for additional institutional strengthening and streamlining of procedures through other funding sources.
e) The administrative and operational arrangements for pursuing a programmatic approach to climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction will be set out in the project’s Operational Guidelines.
f) Initial M&E capability will be established and progressively enhanced to support the longer-term need for the data and capability to assess the extent to which climate change and disaster risk activities are effective in addressing the threats posed by climate change.
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Figure 1 depicts the institutional framework for the project.
Figure 1 Institutional Framework
33. Steering Committee. The existing PPCR Steering Committee will be responsible for providing policy guidance and oversight of project implementation. Regular meetings will be held every six months or more often as needed. Overall PPCR program coordination (including of the West Coast Road Project) will remain the responsibility of the CRICU of the MOF. 34. Secretariat. The CRICU will provide secretariat functions for the Steering Committee, including preparation of documentation and agenda for meetings. It will also coordinate the follow-up of Steering Committee directives. 35. Project Execution. The Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment will be responsible for the day-to-day oversight of the Project Management Unit (see below). 36. Project Management. A Project Management Unit (PMU) will be established to (eventually) administer the implementation of multiple externally funded climate resilience projects. Initially, the PMU will administer and be funded by the proposed ECR project, the Adaptation Fund project, and the forthcoming GEF/LDCF project (see Para. 38). The PMU’s responsibilities and funding base will be expanded as it gains the capacity to administer
PPCR
Steering Committee
Program Execution
MNRE‐Planning & Urban Management
Project Management Unit (PMU)
Project Implementation: Line
Agencies/CSOs
Secretariat: MOF‐Climate Resilience Coordination Unit
(CRICU)
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additional projects by other donors. To address the PMU’s initial capacity constraints, the Project Manager and other key staff will be provided by an external firm.
37. Project Implementation. Line agencies that would support MNRE with the development and implementation of subprojects would include, inter-alia, LTA, MWCSD, MWTI, MAF and SWA. 38. The proposed ECR project will be implemented alongside two complementary UNDP-supported projects (see fn. 6), which will address issues not covered by the ECR. The UNDP-AF project is based on the same concept as the ECR and is focusing on the implementation of CIM Plans in the 25 districts not covered by the ECR. The GEF/LDCF/UNDP project, currently in preparation, will support the mainstreaming of climate change adaptation and DRM in national policy frameworks and planning, and strengthen the responsible state and local institutions through an economy-wide approach. Care has been taken during project preparation to design implementation arrangements that are complementary to those of the UNDP-AF program. The PMU will coordinate both projects, and will evolve, along with the Institutional Framework, to eventually coordinate all external funding for climate resilience projects. Likewise, the same Steering Committee will oversee the three projects. B. Results Monitoring and Evaluation
39. The PMU will be responsible for M&E. This is expected to be an important area for coordination and collaboration between the ECR and AF projects, which will be facilitated by having the single PMU. Guided by the Results Framework, data will be collected for project evaluation through regular reporting by the line agencies involved in project implementation, the technical specialists guiding the review and update of the CIM Plans, and the CSSP. Additional data will come from two sample surveys, to be conducted in years 1 and 5. The collected data will also be used by project management for adaptive management of the project. It is envisaged that the M&E capacity established in the PMU will help to sustain and strengthen the M&E capacity in the MNRE. The M&E facility will be responsible for sharing lessons learned and good practices with the MNRE and with regional PPCR projects being implemented by the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank. 40. The M&E Specialists in the PMU will also guide the development of M&E frameworks for the community-level projects, and provide inputs to the CSO training. They will also work with CSOs to set up processes for collecting information on the direct and indirect beneficiaries of community activities, and on various project indicators. 41. In addition to regular project monitoring and evaluation, the CRICU, in collaboration with the PMU, will be responsible for compiling and reporting on the progress of PPCR programmatic indicators to the PPCR Sub-Committee of the Climate Investment Funds, consistent with the approved PPCR Monitoring Framework for Samoa. The PPCR is providing extensive support to ensure adequate capacity is developed and knowledge shared to measure the necessary outcomes. The PPCR also requires that an independent evaluator provide regular
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reports. The proposed project will support this broader programmatic monitoring, as well as dissemination of lessons learned.
C. Sustainability 42. The complementary functions of the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (with the PMU under the MNRE responsible for project execution, and the Climate Resilience Investment Coordinating Unit of MOF serving as the secretariat) will help ensure that longer-term transformational change towards climate-resilient development is supported through budgetary allocation, information sharing, policy harmonization, and support to CSOs in their close work with communities and traditional leaders to develop Community Engagement Plans and implement the revised CIM Plans. 43. At the district level, progress towards implementation of the revised CIM Plans and the expected resilience benefit will increase community engagement, which will in turn contribute to the sustainability of the efforts. The creation of a platform to coordinate the climate resilience efforts and financial flows of donors will also improve overall coordination among line ministries and with the districts and traditional institutions. 44. The practical experience of communities with designing and implementing the CIM Plans and activities will contribute to behavior change. This overall process of increasing resilience through learning-by-doing will contribute to the sustainability of projects and to sustainable development outcomes.
V. KEY RISKS AND MITIGATION MEASURES A. Risk Ratings Summary Table
Table 2. Project Risk Ratings12
Risk Category Rating
Stakeholder Risk L
Implementing Agency Risk
- Capacity S
- Governance M
Project Risk
- Design S
- Social and Environmental M
- Program and Donor M
- Delivery Monitoring and Sustainability S
Overall Implementation Risk S
12 Ratings: L: Low; M: Moderate; S: Substantial
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B. Overall Risk Rating Explanation
45. The main risks to the project have to do with capacity of the implementing agencies. Capacity constraints stem from (a) a shortage of qualified personnel; (b) heavy reliance on the limited resources of MNRE; (c) lack of coordination of climate-resilience funding from many different sources; and (d) the different financial management, procurement and reporting requirements of various funding sources. The project’s institutional arrangements address each of these issues through both short-term actions (hiring of consultants) and longer-term sustainability requirements (through training of local hires and formalization of positions). The project will also draw support from the sector agencies and will contract qualified CSOs to undertake some project implementation, though there is still a risk that the latter may not perform effectively. 46. Design risks are related to the project’s strategy of shifting the focus of community-level stakeholders from hard engineering solutions to a broader ecosystems-based approach. To achieve this shift, the project will use a consultative approach to engage with communities, similar to the approach used in preparing the original CIM Plans.
47. Strengthening capacity for M&E through this project, the Adaptation Fund project, and the PPCR itself, will contribute to reducing the risk of monitoring and reporting. In a small country such as Samoa, which has many donors active in the climate and disaster risk areas, the PMU and the Steering Committee will help with coordination of donor and programs.
48. Project sustainability will depend on the willingness of government at all levels to continue supporting the project’s objectives and mobilizing the funding needed to do so. The focus on local planning and activities will help to ensure communities’ ownership of the ecosystems-based approach promoted by the project, and their commitment to sustaining these solutions over the long term. 49. Given the capacity, design, and sustainability risks inherent in the project, a risk rating of Substantial is appropriate.
VI. APPRAISAL SUMMARY
A. Economic and Financial Analysis
50. The economic analysis consisted of three parts: (a) a top-down analysis focusing on the overall project; (b) a qualitative analysis that focuses on the sub-grants component (Component 1b); and (c) a discussion of other qualitative aspects of the project. A summary is provided below and more detailed analysis in Annex 6. Top-Down Approach 51. The top-down approach assessed the overall economic viability of the project. It compared the aggregate cost of all project components ($14.6 million) against the aggregate
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expected benefits, which were computed in four steps: (a) PCRAFI simulation model predictions of average annual damages and losses and fatalities from cyclones in the 16 districts were adjusted to reflect the full scope of damages reported in the PDNA for Evan; (b) predicted lives lost were monetized (using the human capital approach) to determine total damages from current hazards; (c) future damages were projected accounting for changes in the hazard and exposure; and (d) the expected benefit stream was determined as the share of damages the project is expected to reduce during the lifetime of the project. 52. In the base case, the IRR of the project is 8.9 percent, within the range of similar projects. These results are fairly robust to changes in the assumptions with ERRs in the 5 to 17 percent range, decreasing when indirect losses or the escalation in future hazards are not included in the analysis, and increasing when the value of lives saved are based on transferred willingness to pay or the co-benefits of the adaptation activities in protecting against other hazards (e.g. tsunamis) are included. The results are, however, most sensitive, with ERRs declining to between 2 and 5 percent, if only 75 percent of the project targets are met or if there is no growth in asset exposure over time. An effective prioritization process, complemented by monitoring is important to the attainment of these targets. Due to the limited scope of the PCRAFI damage estimates, the base case and sensitivity results shown here provide a lower bound on the ERR. For instance, they do not include damages to utility networks, the loss of biodiversity, fisheries, and livestock.
Table 3. Results of Economic Analysis
Scenario IRRNPV
3%NPV
6%NPV 10%
NPV 12%
Overall Project (top down approach) 8.92% $11.79 $4.19 ‐$1.04 ‐$2.50
Qualitative Analysis for Component 1b
53. Around 65 percent of the total project costs will be grants to communities to implement local resilience projects. These grants constitute the primary rationale for the ECR, and are expected to provide direct and measurable improvements in resilience. While the exact sub-projects that will be undertaken are not known a-priori, the types of project can be observed from the CIMs that were drafted in the past. They include: coastal plantation, mangrove restoration and rehabilitation, upland plantation, small river dredging activities, water storage tanks, and the relocation of small structures. While larger projects such as bridge and road construction are also included in the CIMs, they would be too expensive to support through these grants. International experience has shown that many of the soft infrastructure activities that were included in prior CIMs are effective in increasing climate resilience. For instance, mangroves can serve as buffer zones, reducing wave strength, water velocity and wind strength of tropical cyclones. In addition, mangrove-planting programs are scalable and provide many co-benefits. Planting mangroves in their native habitat restores coastal biodiversity (including fish and shellfish production), enhances water quality, and can protect homes, agriculture, and livestock from flooding.
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Other Qualitative Benefits
54. The economic analysis focused on avoided damages and losses from cyclones. Some of the adaptation measures to protect against cyclone damage, such as planting mangroves for coastal protection, will also protect against tsunamis. Similarly, catchment management often increases slope stability, thus reducing landslide occurrence following earthquakes. Many of the sub-projects will also provide other development benefits; e.g., reducing soil erosion will help the tourism industry. Some adaptation measures will also reduce the losses associated with slow-onset impacts of climate change, including saltwater intrusion in water reserves, loss of coastal habitats, and food insecurity from damage to crops, livestock, and coastal fisheries. 55. Allocative efficiency: The project design provides a mechanism to finance sub-projects that are proposed by and implemented on behalf of the beneficiaries. Global experience indicates that devolving sub-project selection to communities results in more effective projects and more efficiently allocated project benefits within the community.
56. The use of conservative assumptions in the economic analysis, and the focus only on direct and quantifiable benefits and efficiency-enhancing project design, suggest that the actual returns to the project may be higher than those indicated by the economic analysis.
Financial Analysis 57. The project is not designed as an income-generating project, and a separate analysis of the private financial returns to project investments was not undertaken. The project’s fiscal impact is expected to be small but significant. The grant financing (100 percent of project resources) is equivalent to about 1.9 percent of GDP or about 9 percent of current Government expenditures. The key issues arising from this infusion of resources is the absorptive capacity of the Government, which has already been examined as part of the implementation support plan. Beyond the initial period, the project will incur annual O&M costs of about US$1.45 million. These costs are expected to be financed through a Trust Fund that the Government is setting up to support such activities. B. Technical
58. The focus of the proposed project is on updating and implementation of the revised CIM Plans, which were originally formulated to address the three main coastal hazards—landslides, flooding, erosion—and identify infrastructure vulnerable to those hazards. During project preparation, a methodology was developed, based on best international practice, to revise the Plans to include rapid vulnerability assessments and the use of the most recent data and maps. The participatory process will help ensure the capture of local knowledge. The revised CIM Plans will also incorporate inland natural hazards, including cyclones, drought and sea-level rise, taking a ridge-to-reef approach of assessing vulnerabilities and solutions, in recognition of the fundamental link between processes occurring in differing parts of the catchment and the role of ecosystems in coastal protection and community resilience. While completely updating previous hazard assessments is not considered feasible, the revisions will incorporate the most up-to-date information, along with new imagery and coastline definitions, and will include assessments of
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additional hazards such as tsunamis and storm surges. The updated Plans will also take account of other planning frameworks such as Village Sustainable Development Plans, Watershed Management Plans, and Disaster Management Plans. The updated CIM Plans will:
a) Incorporate ecological and community-based approaches that go beyond those in the original CIM Plans, and may provide alternative or complementary ways of increasing climate resilience. These solutions will focus on addressing the multi-faceted nature of vulnerability as well as hazards and exposure from climate change and other socio-economic factors;
b) Encourage discussion of potential voluntary setbacks and retreat of communities and assets out of hazardous areas, rather than pursuing only hazard mitigation and protection solutions;
c) Ensure that the proposed hard infrastructure solutions are not only capable of protecting against the identified hazard, but do not have any unintended maladaptive effects;
d) Incorporate the best available information and practice in the design of solutions. For example, appropriate sub-projects will be designed to a 35 to 50 year standard (for extreme events) as opposed to the present 10 year standard for most projects; and
e) Use inclusive and participatory approaches to ensure that communities understand and use the risk information and their own knowledge in designing solutions.
59. The decision to engage CSOs as service providers was based on: (a) the need to access the capacity that exists outside of government, given the limited availability of trained government staff; and (b) the experience of some of the CSOs with climate resilience, and of others with working at the community level. By strengthening these organizations and making them important players in a coordinated national effort, the project will also minimize the risk of CSOs implementing stand-alone adaptation products that do not connect with wider community and national-level efforts. Using the Civil Society Support Program to deliver community-level grants will also strengthen the CSSP’s role in changing current practices. C. Financial Management
60. A financial management (FM) assessment for the project identified the main FM risks as (a) the limited FM capacity of the implementing agency (MNRE), which could lead to poor accounting and poor adherence to existing internal controls; and (b) the requirement that small sub-grants be managed by community groups, which are likely to have limited FM expertise, possibly leading to poor record keeping, lost documentation, expenditures on ineligible items, and subsequent delay of the second tranche. 61. These risks will be mitigated by the engagement of (a) a dedicated Finance Management Specialist for the life of the project, to prepare and review all documentation and sub-grant payment requests; (b) an International Finance Advisor for the first six months of the project, to ensure that adequate controls are in place, set up the project’s financial management system, and prepare the initial financial reports; and (c) a liaison officer to provide initial training to community groups and then carry out site visits to ensure that adequate documentation is being
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maintained for the acquittal of funds. Other mitigation measures will include (d) monthly reconciliation of project accounts with government records; and (e) preparation of an Operations Manual (adopted by government on October 4, 2013) covering funding arrangements, community engagement, use of consultants, sub-grant procedures, and procurement. D. Procurement
62. Although MNRE does have prior experience with Bank-financed projects, it has inadequate in-house staff numbers to implement a large capital investment portfolio. This has necessitated the hiring of consultants to assist with procurement and contract management services. A firm will be hired to provide these services under a Project Management Contract covering key management responsibilities. 63. The Government’s Tender Board and the Cabinet approve contracts of more than US$22,720 and US$227,200, respectively. Contracts over US$22,720 are subject to clearance by the Attorney General’s Office, prior to signing. 64. Key actions to mitigate procurement-related risks include implementation of a system to track decision-making, dissemination of procedures detailed in the Operations Manual, and appointment of a firm to provide project management and technical services to support MNRE. Procurement activities will include the hiring of consultants for project implementation support. Procurement of goods and works will be carried out primarily under the community sub-projects, through the CSOs, and in compliance with procedures detailed in the Operations Manual. A summary Procurement Plan is included in Annex 3. E. Social (including Safeguards)
65. The broader social aims of the project will be achieved through community participation in the CIM review, public awareness raising, and training of CSOs to assist communities in preparing sub-grant proposals and implementing CIM Plans. This approach supports the work of MWCSD under the Village Sustainable Development Plan, which emphasizes identification of resilience skills and resources, as well as areas where external help is needed. 66. Two separate reports on the social aspects of the project have been prepared. A Social Assessment (SA) has been carried out to identify any Indigenous Peoples’ issues; it emphasizes the importance of discussion on land issues to guide resettlement planning, and describes the role of customary approaches and rights in community consultations and action plans. A Civil Society Assessment has identified the challenges faced by CSOs in Samoa; it recommends capacity building strategies to assist them in engaging more effectively with communities to build climate resilience.
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67. A Gender Impact Report13 was carried out to assess the different impacts of climate change on women and men, young and old, and other groups whose situation has been exacerbated by climate change phenomena. Some of the key findings of the report, based on community consultations, show that climate change has brought about distinct shifts in the traditional roles of men and women. For instance, multiple climate catastrophes in the last few years have forced traditional women healers to look for other job opportunities due to the loss of medicinal plants and herbs needed for their work. The report also found that the lack of recognition of these gender-differentiated impacts at the village level can increase communities’ vulnerability to climate shocks in the future. The report proposes that the project, as well as other PPCR activities, include a Gender Monitoring Framework (GMF) to track the gender impacts of project activities. The proposed GMF would assess sub-projects (a) at the design phase, to establish a baseline of the different gendered impacts of climate change; (b) during planning, to screen for possible unintended consequences of sub-project activities; and (c) during implementation, to monitor progress toward putting in place gender-sensitive climate-resilience measures. Indicators recommended and used by the Ministry of Women, Community and Social Development are incorporated in the project’s Monitoring Framework. 68. The findings of all of these preparatory studies are integrated into ECR project design. A Community Engagement Plan (CEP)14 will also be informed by these findings, and will integrate communications and awareness raising, climate and disaster resilience, environmental and social safeguards activities, and M&E into a toolkit for CSOs and other stakeholders to use in implementing CIMs. After the development of the CEP, CSOs will be trained, with assistance from the CSSP and MWCSD, to assist communities in preparing and implementing sub-projects to carry out the CIM Plans. Qualified CSOs will then be engaged to monitor the implementation of CIM Plans in accordance with the CEP. The CEP will form part of the already adopted Project Operations Manual. 69. Social Safeguards. OP/BP4.12 on Involuntary Resettlement is triggered. Expected land impacts will be on public land or easements, or land selected and donated voluntarily by beneficiary communities as part of the usual community contribution in CSSP projects. Similarly, village transport projects will not proceed without community consent, and as is the current practice, will not involve involuntary land acquisition or payment of compensation. To ensure that planning does not create negative impacts, a Land Acquisition and Resettlement Framework (LARF) has been prepared to ensure appropriate application of OP 4.12, to complement the provisions under Samoan law, and to guide the processes of consultation and consideration of options, and ensure broad community support for proposals. The LARF specifies requirements to verify and document community decisions and donations of land, and provides for resolution of disputes and grievances. These processes will be incorporated in the modes of engagement already in place through MNRE, MWCSD and CSSP, and will be included in the Community Engagement Plan. Should involuntary impacts be unavoidable, options will be discussed with Affected Persons (AP); a census of APs and inventory of assets
13 Understanding Gender-Differentiated Impacts of Disasters and Climate Change in Samoa (draft 2013; final forthcoming). 14 The CEP will be developed with the CSSP and MWSCD, with support from a technical expert from the MNRE and other line agencies, and with CSO participation.
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will be recorded and evaluated; and affected populations compensated according to the principles described in the LARF which provides for preparation of a Resettlement Action Plan (RAP),15 with funds budgeted for that purpose. Institutional responsibilities for these actions are spelled out in the LARF. However, as communities will plan, develop and implement their own proposals for the sub-projects, issues arising from resettlement are unlikely to arise. 70. OP/BP 4.10 on Indigenous Peoples is also triggered. Indigenous Polynesians comprise 93 percent of Samoa’s population. The balance are mainly the descendants of German, Chinese, Melanesian, and Polynesian migrants who have been largely absorbed into the Samoan social system, although few have access to land except through ties of affinity. The Social Assessment confirms the dominance of fa’a Samoa—Samoan culture and custom—in the Constitution and law on land dealings, which prohibits alienation of customary land. Provisos to ensure that land-based livelihoods are protected and benefits are equitably shared are central to this project, and have been incorporated into the project design and ESMF, and will be included in the procedures mandated in the CEP. The ESMF includes provisions that specify appropriate roles and responsibilities, and outline the necessary reporting procedures, for managing and monitoring environmental and social concerns, including those relating to gender and different sub-groups within the beneficiary communities that will arise from the subprojects. As the vast majority of project beneficiaries are indigenous peoples, no stand-alone Indigenous Peoples Plan (IPP) has been prepared. OP 4.10 requirements are incorporated into the project design and the ESMF. This includes provisions that aim to ensure that land-based livelihoods are protected and benefits are culturally appropriate and equitably shared. These provisions will be further elaborated in the procedures mandated in the CEP that will be prepared prior to any financing of sub-project activities in local communities. Subprojects will be demand driven, community based and prepared with close participation of local communities; as the subproject beneficiaries will be solely or overwhelmingly indigenous peoples, subproject proposals will include OP 4.10 requirements and separate subproject IPPs are not required.
71. Known sacred or cultural sites will be avoided in design and planning. Chance finds of Physical Cultural Resources (OP/BP4.11) are addressed in the Environmental and Social Management Framework (ESMF) drafted by the Government (see below).
F. Environment (including Safeguards)
72. The project will finance a variety of small-scale structures and ecologically based measures (i.e., soft approaches) such as reforestation and mangrove rehabilitation, which may, in some cases, have adverse environmental impacts due to construction in sensitive areas. Typical construction-related impacts are temporary and can be mitigated through proper measures. Potential impacts on natural habitats, on the other hand, need to be adequately assessed and minimized to the extent possible. The project area encompasses a number of protected and key biodiversity areas, and sub-projects in or near these areas could introduce outside access to pristine natural habitats. An Environmental and Social Management Framework (ESMF)
15 Also see paragraph 55 in Annex 3.
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prepared by the Government is designed to identify potential negative impacts and ways of preventing them and provides for the preparation of an Environmental Management Plan (EMP) for activities having potential significant environmental impacts and/or those with a physical works value of $50,000 or more.16 A negative list of activities has also been incorporated in the ESMF to directly avoid activities with unacceptable environmental and social risks. The following environmental safeguards policies are triggered in this project: (i) Environmental Assessment (OP 4.01); (ii) Natural Habitats (OP 4.04); (iii) Forests (OP 4.36); and (iv) Physical Cultural Resources (OP 4.11). Public consultations have been held on the islands of Upolu and Savai’i. The ESMF includes a Grievance Redress Mechanism (GRM) which makes use of existing channels such as the Complaints Desk of the Planning and Urban Management Agency (PUMA). 73. The ESMF and LARF were disclosed in Samoa on September 23, 2013 and in the World Bank InfoShop on September 24, 2013 for the ESMF and September 27, 2013 for the LARF.
16 Also see paragraph 51 in Annex 3.
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Annex 1: Results Framework and Monitoring .
Country: Samoa
Project Name: Enhancing the Climate Resilience of Coastal Resources and Communities (P126596).
Results Framework.
Project Development Objectives .
PDO Statement
The project development objective is to support coastal communities to become more resilient to climate variability and change.
These results are at Project Level .
Project Development Objective Indicators
Cumulative Target Values Data Source/
Responsibility for
Indicator Name Core Unit of Measure
Baseline YR1 YR2 YR3 YR4 End
Target Frequency
Methodology
Data Collection
Direct project beneficiaries
Number 0.00 500.00 10000.00 20000.00 30000.00 45000.00 Annual
PMU approved work program and annual reports
MNRE
Female beneficiaries
Percentage Sub-Type Supplemental
0.00 48.00 48.00 48.00 48.00 30.00
Percent of sub-projects with Percentage 0.00 0.00 70.00 70.00 70.00 70.00 Annual
Project Reports
MNRE
24
climate/disaster resilience satisfactorily implemented based on a scoring system
Area restored or re/afforested
Hectare (Ha) 0.00 0.00 200.00 400.00 600.00 120.00 Annual
LiDAR, ground surveys, aerial maps and project reports
MNRE
Area re/afforested
Hectare (Ha) Sub-Type Breakdown
0.00 0.00 100.00 200.00 300.00 70.00 Annual
Record of mangrove area restored
MNRE
Area restored
Hectare (Ha) Sub-Type Breakdown
0.00 0.00 100.00 200.00 300.00 50.00 Annual
Records of natural coastal vegetation restored
MNRE
.
Intermediate Results Indicators
Cumulative Target Values Data Source/
Responsibility for
Indicator Name Core Unit of Measure
Baseline YR1 YR2 YR3 YR4 End
Target Frequency
Methodology
Data Collection
Participants in consultation activities during project implementation (number)
Number 0.00 500.00 1500.00 3000.00 4000.00 5000.00 Annual
Actual number of Community members who have participated
MNRE
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in CIM Plan review and project identification process from records of attendance at workshops and meetings
Participants in consultation activities during project implementation - female
Number Sub-Type Breakdown
0.00 250.00 750.00 1500.00 2000.00 2500.00 Annual
Records of attendance at workshops and meetings
MNRE
CIMs updated through consultative processes and incorporate other planning frameworks
Text 0 2 8 16 16 16 annual Project reports
MNRE
Number of trained CSOs providing climate change related services under the project
Number 0.00 0.00 5.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 Annual Project reports
MNRE
Maps prepared for bathymetry Text None None
Maps prepared
Maps prepared
Maps prepared
Relevant hazard
Annual LiDAR and mapping
MNRE
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and topography for Upolu and Savai'i and use to strengthen resilience
and in use
and in use
and in use
maps, data on wave movement, and other information contributes to decision making on climate risks and used in the design of risk management interventions.
services and Annual Reports
Improved awareness on climate change associated risks and hazards among population in targeted districts
Percentage 10.00 40.00
Twice (beginning and end of project)
Sample Survey
MNRE
Use of improved climate information and tools.
Percentage 0.00 40.00
Twice (beginning and end of project)
Sample Survey
MNRE
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Evidence of strengthened government capacity and coordination mechanism to mainstream climate resilience.
Text
Climate information product/services rarely used in decision making
PCU established
Use of climate risk assessment tools developed by project
Use of climate risk assessment tools developed by project
Climate risks assessment integrated into safeguards instruments used by the project
Climate information products/services are used in decision making in climate sensitive sectors
Annual Project reports
MNRE
.
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Annex 2: Detailed Project Description
COUNTRY: SAMOA Enhancing the Climate Resilience of Coastal Resources and Communities
1. The proposed project is one of two investment projects included in Samoa’s Strategic Program for Climate Resilience (SPCR) approved by the Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR) Subcommittee) of the Climate Investment Fund. The other project, Enhancing the Climate Resilience of the West Coast Road (Apia to Airport), became effective in March 2013, and eight districts along the road are included in the proposed Enhancing Climate Resilience (ECR) project. 2. Samoa’s Second National Communication (SNC) to the UNFCCC includes an updated vulnerability assessment that can be adopted as a baseline for the ECR project. Building on the National Adaptation Plan of Action (NAPA), the assessment was undertaken for all sectors and identified those most vulnerable to climate variability and climate change as: water; agriculture and food security; forestry; infrastructure; health; and coastal environments. Climate change and climate-induced disasters are expected to cause instability in food production and water availability, affecting income-generating activities for communities and the country at large. 3. Many changes are anticipated for the country’s biodiversity as a result of climate change, not only in terms of species population but also in terms of the health of entire ecosystems. The health of biodiversity has direct consequences for inter-related sectors, namely fisheries, forestry, agriculture, tourism, infrastructure, health and water. At the ecosystem level, climate change is expected to affect not only the diversity of native fauna and flora, but also the ecosystems that provide goods and services for human welfare and development. Extreme climatic conditions relevant to biodiversity include sea level rise, higher sea surface temperatures, increasingly frequent and intense tropical storms, frequent flooding, extreme tides, and increases in ocean acidification. These climatic changes will have potentially disastrous consequences for marine biodiversity and ecosystems, including:
habitat mortality: coral bleaching, erosion, and sedimentation; accelerated coastal erosion, leading to destruction of beaches and mangroves important to
certain marine species; extensive coastal inundation and higher levels of sea flooding; waves and storm surges into coastal land areas, causing salinity in coastal wetlands and
coastal springs; mangroves and wetlands pushed further inland by frequent king tides and sea-level rise; eutrophication, sedimentation and siltation of water resources, leading to the proliferation
of invasive species; increased destruction of habitats and nursery areas, leading to species decline; decline in in-shore fisheries; and loss of natural reefs that protect the islands and coastal communities.
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4. As detailed below, the project will address these vulnerabilities in the villages of 16 districts on both Upolu and Savai’i. The complementary UNDP-Adaptation Fund (UNDP-AF) project will implement similar activities in the remaining 25 districts in the country.
Figure A2.1
Distribution of Districts to be Supported by the ECR and UNDP AF Projects
5. The ECR’s project development objective is to support coastal communities’ efforts to become more resilient to climate variability and change. To achieve this objective, the project will develop and implement immediate and urgent adaptation activities to protect the lives and livelihoods of the people; protect infrastructure and environment; and increase awareness of climate change impacts and adaptation activities among communities, civil society and government. The complementary UNDP-AF and UNDP/LDCF projects will also incorporate adaptation measures and goals into national and sector policies and development plans.
6. At the completion of the project, the following outcomes are expected:
Integrated planning frameworks are being used at the community level to address threats from climate and disaster risks;
Vulnerable communities use improved tools, information and instruments to design and implement community-led resilient activities;
In selected coastal and inland districts affected by climate variability and climate change, improvements in the vegetation cover are indicative of functioning of ecosystems and their ability to support sustainable livelihoods and income-generating activities;
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An increased awareness of climate impacts and resilience options, and processes in place to mainstream these options in policies, programs and activities at all levels of government;
Improved coordination among various climate resilient activities overseen by units in the MOF and MNRE;
An established monitoring and reporting process that can track changes in resilience from the national to the local level.
7. To achieve these outcomes, the project will support the implementation of revised Coastal Infrastructure Management (CIM) Plans at the community level while enhancing the capacity of those civil society organizations (CSOs) that play an important role in climate risk management in Samoa. The project will comprise three components: (a) implementation of priority adaptation measures to manage climate and disaster-related threats; (b) strengthened climate information services; and (c) institutional strengthening for climate and disaster resilience, and project coordination and monitoring.
Component 1: Implementation of priority adaptation measures to manage climate and disaster-related threats (US$10.2m)
8. This component will strengthen the adaptive capacity of communities, and increase the resilience of coastlines and near shore areas as well as coral reefs (including their productivity) to the risks posed by climate variability and change. It will support the implementation of priority community adaptation measures derived from revised CIM Plans and other community planning frameworks. The project will implement a ridge-to-reef approach, which involves managing climate and disaster risks from upper water catchment areas to the coastal zone. 9. The CIM Plans for the 16 districts participating in the project were prepared during the SIAM-2 project and are, on average, seven years old. They will be updated in light of developments at the village and district levels, as well as new information on climate change and disaster risks and ways to manage them. Hazard zones may also need to be updated to reflect hazards not considered when the Plans were first prepared, as well as new hazards created by recent climate events.
10. The revised Plans will be much broader in scope that the original Plans, and will include considerations such as (a) the efficacy of monitoring and early warning systems; (b) physical and social infrastructure priorities based on recent disaster experiences; and (c) climate variability and change considerations. The revised Plans will take a more holistic, systems-wide approach to understanding exposure and vulnerability in terms of ecological and sectoral linkages, and findings ways to create positive feedback loops to reduce these impacts. The Plans will also integrate the relevant features of other community planning frameworks—Disaster Management Plans, Village Sustainable Development Plans, and Watershed Management Plans. At the same time, the review and revision process will be guided by the need to be strategic—in focusing on how best to enhance resilience, add value to existing Plans, minimize redundancy, and optimize coordination and efficiency in the use of time and resources. A checklist of key factors to
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consider in reviewing the CIM Plans has been prepared to help guide the revision. Excellent tools are also already available in the literature. 11. The component consists of the two sub-components described below; and detailed procedures for implementing them are described in the Project Operations Manual. Sub-component 1: Participatory Prioritization of Disaster Risks and Adaptation Options (US$0.8m). 12. This sub-component will support communities in upgrading CIM Plans through a participatory process that will also include adoption of relevant features of other management plans listed above. The review will be undertaken by technical specialists based in the PMU in MNRE, as well as specialists from the line ministries and CSOs. The latter will focus on community facilitation, assisting the consultation process, training and awareness raising of communities on climate and disaster threats (see Component 2), and assisting villagers in developing small community projects to be funded by the project. The more technical V&A assessments and review of community projects will be undertaken by the specialists, utilizing most recently available data (see below). 13. The revisions to the Plans should ensure that: (a) all climate-related and natural hazards are included, and where possible, new imagery and information used to assess risks and develop options that deliver tangible benefits in the short term and are not maladaptive to future climate conditions; (b) the vulnerabilities are assessed and adaptation solutions identified on a ridge-to-reef basis that recognizes the interconnected nature of the different ecosystems; (c) incorporate the role of ecosystems in enhancing resilience to climate risk, through the use of ecosystem-based approaches; and (d) incorporate both short-term adaptation options and longer-term options that have the potential to be transformative, such as moving communities out of high-risk areas. 14. To avoid a lengthy planning exercise and move quickly to implementation, a rapid Vulnerability and Adaptation (V&A) assessment will be undertaken. The technical team in the PMU will begin with a desk review of the existing CIM Plans to screen for activities known to have already been implemented or no longer relevant. The other planning frameworks will also be assessed to identify complementary activities or areas of conflict that are at odds with enhancing community resilience. Data to be utilized for some analytical work could include:
Mining Google Earth for high-resolution imagery of coastlines and comparing with historical records of satellite imagery or low-altitude aerial photographs of key environmental features;
New shoreline mapping based on updated aerial photography, including reef flats to deep water drop-off;
New tsunami hazard zones as produced during the Tsunami Evacuation Mapping Project,17 ;
17 Tsunami Evacuation Mapping Project, GNS Science, 2011
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Other spatial hazard information as it becomes available (e.g., the CSIRO storm surge study being undertaken along the Upolu NW Coast);
New elevation data as it becomes available (e.g., the LiDAR18 data presently being collected along the Upolu NW coast);
Land use, land cover, ecological classifications, and other available environmental data; Results of monitoring of other key indicators associated with meteorology, hydrology,
sedimentation, fish stock assessments, sea level rise and saltwater intrusion; and 15. GIS data collected in each community.19Two rounds of consultations with communities will be required to update the CIM Plans and agree on priorities. The initial meetings will collect primary information needed for screening (for example, confirming which activities in the CIM Plans have been implemented or are no longer necessary) and scoping the district. Using this information, the team will identify priority needs and create visualizations.
16. The second round of consultations will be more comprehensive; the visualizations will be used along with the results of initial investigations to help the community recognize and design their interventions. Facilitators will help each of the villages to prioritize needed interventions and prepare one or two sub-project proposals for financing. Sub-component 2: Sub-grants for implementing priority climate resilience measures (US$9.4m). The annual work program for this component comprises a series of sub-projects. Proposals for grant financing will be developed for each of the 99 villages in the 16 participating districts. Some sub-projects may be developed at a district scale for multiple villages in order to address ecosystem/catchment and/or social resilience issues that affect more than one village, and to benefit from economies of scale and increased efficiency. Some activities may also be identified for which resource and other requirements are beyond the scope of the ECR project; for these, the Government will seek alternative sources of financing either during or after the ECR project. 17. The work program, including all sub-projects, would be approved by the PPCR Steering Committee. Grants would be channeled through the CSSP directly to beneficiary community groups. In line with current CSSP practice, the ceiling for such grants would be WST50,000 (US$22,720). Experienced NGOs/CSOs could work with communities to implement these projects. Communities could also seek technical assistance through the project from relevant line ministries. Typical projects to be implemented with CSOs (based on current experience) include: water tank installation, mangrove replanting, community pool (water supply and bathing) upgrading, demarcation, and marking of evacuation routes and sites. 18. The work program would also include larger projects such as larger infrastructure works, beach replenishment, and catchment management, which would be implemented through the
18 The project will finance (jointly with the UNDP-AF) LiDAR coverage of the country, which will provide an updated set of geo-referenced high-resolution aerial photographs covering bathymetry and topographic data. 19 A GIS will be permanently installed in each community, for use during and after the project.
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relevant line agency. Once the annual work program is approved by the Steering Committee, MOF would be authorized to allocate the sum for implementing the project(s) directly to the budget of the relevant line agency. The line agency would work closely with the community in implementing these larger projects, and communities would agree on monitoring indicators. A specific clause for force majeure would be included in sub-grant agreements to account for delays outside the control of the communities. 19. Sub-project eligibility criteria would include the following:
The proposed sub-project must demonstrate clear adaptation benefits and not contribute potentially to maladaptation (i.e., have short-term benefits, but increase vulnerability over the longer term).
The activity must have been identified as a priority in the CIM Plan review and the participatory planning process
The proposed sub-project must be screened for potential social and environmental impacts and must not have been found to require a full-scale Environmental and Social Impact Assessment; and
A proposed sub-project concerning rehabilitation (such as mangrove replanting) must demonstrate that it is replacing the same type of habitat that has been degraded, and that the causes of that degradation were or can be removed to ensure the rehabilitation is successful.
20. During preparation, a review of CIM Plans and various V&A provided the following summary of climate change and disaster threats and related impacts and adaptation options under consideration in the targeted areas:
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Sector and System Under
Consideration
Climate Change and Disaster Threats and Related Impacts
Adaptation Options Under Consideration
Infrastructure Infrastructure facilities and assets are vulnerable due to their location and exposure. More than 70% of all infrastructure facilities are located within 100m of the coastline (Coastal Infrastructure Management Strategy 2006) or close to rivers. Poor site development, density and location of infrastructure facilities; limited control of site drainage causing erosion; varied quality and form of construction standards; poor infrastructure design; location and operation can directly damage productive ecosystems, divert flood waters, cause site-level flash flooding, promulgate erosion and scouring, and direct polluted waters to environmentally sensitive areas (ESAs).
Implementation of integrated coastal management and shoreline protection adaptation measures that build resilience to climate change and disaster–induced effects; e.g., low-scale sea-walls, submerged wave breakers, retention walls associated with landscaping, moveable coastal protection units (CPUs and tetrapods) and beach-replenishment techniques, river training, drainage construction, raising building platform levels, renovation of evacuation centers. Effective and efficient enhancement of transport links can provide safer and more resilient access during and after extreme events. Generating practical guidelines and know-how to assist the communities to provide quick early action in the implementation of adaptation measures.
Socio-economic Cyclones, extreme rainfall events, flooding, drought, sea level rise, and storm surges and higher frequency of extreme events have increased the vulnerability of the coastal areas, its communities and their livelihoods. There will also be effects on the broader value-chain stakeholders such as service industries, fisheries, agriculture and food enterprises.
Upgrading of evacuation shelters, community water pools, community water storage tanks, early warning systems; improvement of fisheries management through the development of localized management plans, climate resilient agriculture initiatives, projects to improve security of supply of fuel and building materials, energy security measures. Extending and enhancing communication linkages to ensure that climate early warning and information services provided by the Meteorological Division of MNRE are accessible to all communities.
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Environment - ecosystems
Sea level rise and sea surge is increasing erosion, causing loss of beach profile, mobility of sand into and along the coastal zone. Natural coastal resilience is being diminished as beaches, lagoons, coral reefs, coastal vegetation and wetlands are being degraded, modified and/or converted through disturbance, sand mining, changes in land use; variations to natural drainage systems or poor waste management practices. Increased bleaching, coupled with reduced calcification, from increased water temperature and ocean acidification will affect coral growth and detrimentally affect reef integrity and their ability to naturally adapt to sea level rise. Tropical cyclones exacerbate the above issues.
Solid waste management, removal of debris from culverts and drainage channels. Mangrove replanting, natural coastal vegetation planting (bio-shields, or erosion control rehabilitation), coral reefs (locally managed marine areas and fishing reserves) and wetlands management, riparian vegetation/stabilization.
Institutional There is a general lack of suitable strategic land use planning, guidelines on the siting of developments and best approaches to building resilience, updated building codes, improved infrastructure planning and design, approaches to integrated water resource management, waste water management methods, solid waste management,- for the community-based activities. Poor coastal planning and management, encroachment of built facilities in sensitive coastal ecosystems and highly vulnerable areas, exacerbating coastal erosion and degradation of coastal zones; Inadequate waste management and pollution control affecting both terrestrial and marine ecosystems; Unsustainable fishing practises for both local and commercial supply causing degradation of reefs.
Mainstreaming of climate change-induced disaster risks in the implementation of the revised CIM plans and associated community plans through the provision of adequate climate risk data, knowledge of climate change and disaster risk processes and training in the means to implement adaptation measures suited at the community level. Better community engagement and awareness; limiting sand mining from beaches and rivers; relocation of assets out of hazard zones and encouraging use of more resilient off-shore fisheries resources (such as pelagic species).
Middle and Upper Catchment – Forestry
Threats and impacts associated with middle and upper catchment zones, in particular forestry, are typically a result of (i) Flash flooding;(ii) Extreme storm and flood events ;(iii) Drought assumed to occur during the dry season. Overall, middle and upper catchment components were found to be vulnerable to large-scale or extreme flooding, which highlights the existing vulnerability to storms and associated flash flooding and the very strong need to align disaster risk reduction activities with climate change adaptation strategies.
Revised watershed management plan (which includes forestry) for the stabilization and rehabilitation of the slopes. The plan will include zoning of the slopes, identifying demonstration areas, and defining environmental safeguards and development controls for each zone. Implementation of the plan will result in increased resilience of demonstration areas as a result of ecological based and agro-forestry activities in degraded and unproductive areas, and through slope stabilization and terracing. The plan will also strengthen forest extension systems to service farming communities, and support communities in developing low-impact ecological-based practices.
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Component 2: Strengthened Climate Information Services (US$1.5m) 21. This component will strengthen the provision of climate information; increase public awareness of climate change issues; and improve the availability and use of data for risk analysis, hazard mapping, and knowledge sharing. The component will consist of the two sub-components described below. Subcomponent 1: CSO training, national and local level education and awareness-raising on climate resilience (US$0.3m) 22. CSOs will perform an important role in liaising with Village Councils, awareness-raising, and supervision of project activities. The project will support provision of training to CSOs aimed at enhancing their capacity for delivery of climate change related services to community-level applicants as well as other stakeholders. The training will utilize the data and information generated under sub-component 2; CSOs will then utilize this information to assist communities in making informed resilience decisions based on community needs/demands. It will also enable the CSOs to develop Community Engagement Plans (CEP) that will integrate the communications, environmental, and social safeguards work streams and assist communities in designing, applying for funding, and implementing simple community-based adaptation activities. CSOs will be engaged and trained to deliver the CEP, including assistance with procurement, financial management, data collection, and implementation. A Technical Team in MNRE, with assistance from experts in other relevant national government agencies (Ministry of Works, Transport and Infrastructure, Ministry of Women, Community and Social Development, Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries, Ministry of Education, Sports and Culture, Ministry of Health, Samoa Water Authority), Samoa Umbrella for Non-Governmental Organizations (SUNGO), will provide advice and inputs into the CEP and the CSO training. CSOs will receive on-the-job training in delivery of the CEP, including community mobilization and participatory planning of climate-related service provision in the 16 pilot districts. 23. The project will also support the development of a comprehensive and targeted Communications Strategy at the national and local levels to raise awareness of climate resilience. It will draw on Government and Bank experience in communications for participatory development. In collaboration with key Government agencies, the project will support the preparation of information materials for the general public, schools, and women’s groups, since women and children may have higher levels of vulnerability to climate change and disasters. Information materials will be in Samoan and English and include graphic and appropriate pictorial material to facilitate effective communication with communities through print and mass media. Talk shows/discussion with opinion leaders and community members will be another source of information. Awareness-raising activities and materials will be included in the Community Engagement Plan for delivery through CSOs. Sub-component 2: Strengthened data platforms (US$1.2m) 24. This sub-component will support the provision of spatial hazard mapping data (elevation, land use, land cover, and ecological) through the financing of (with the two UNDP projects)
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complete coverage of the country by the LiDAR system, which provides real-time bathymetry and high-resolution topographic data. 25. To undertake the CIM Plan reviews, including updated V&A Assessments, the following types of data will be required:
Updated high-resolution aerial photography New shoreline mapping based on updated aerial photography, including from reef flats
to deep water drop-off New tsunami hazard zones as produced during the GNS (2011) study Other spatial hazard information produced since the original CIM Plans (e.g., the
CSIRO storm surge study being undertaken along the Upolu NW Coast) New topographical data as it becomes available Land use, land cover, ecological classifications and other available environmental data
26. These data will be compiled into a single GIS database and made available to the project team. Most of the above data will be obtained through the LiDAR system. The cost of this activity will be shared with the UNDP-AF project. Component 3: Institutional strengthening for climate and disaster resilience, project coordination and monitoring (US$2.9m)
27. This component will support project management activities under components 1 and 2. Most significantly, it will provide the Institutional Framework for a programmatic approach to climate and disaster resilience, facilitating the more effective use of funds from different sources, including the PPCR, the Adaptation Fund, and the LDCF. The Institutional Framework will utilize the existing Government structures and procedures, including the PPCR Steering Committee, which will provide overall policy guidance and oversight for the project. Moreover, the Institutional Framework will promote the broader implementation of climate and disaster resilience projects by sector agencies and civil society organizations and thereby further encourage the mainstreaming of climate and disaster resilience in sector plans and programs. 28. To overcome the Government’s capacity constraints in implementing the growing number of climate and disaster resilience projects, a Project Management Unit will be established under the supervision of MNRE to be responsible for the day-to-day management of the project. The goal over time would be for the PMU to provide a common platform of administrative and operational approaches through which all external funding and support for climate and disaster resilience could be efficiently managed. Initial staffing of the PMU would be through the hiring of consultants, assignment of counterpart staff, and local hire. Initially each project, including those supported by the PPCR, would provide technical and administrative support to the PMU, with a view that over time capacity would be established within the PMU and that complementarities would be established among technical/administrative support provided through different funding sources. Operational Guidelines will be prepared as part of this PPCR-supported ECR project to provide the platform of administrative and operational arrangements through which such a programmatic approach to climate and disaster resilience could be pursued. Initial M&E capability would also be established in support of the longer- term need for a database and assessment capability as to what climate change and disaster risk
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activities are being undertaken, and the extent to which the threats posed by climate change are being adequately addressed. 29. Resources will be made available under the project for hiring of: (a) a Project Manager; (b) a Financial Management Specialist; (c) a Procurement Specialist;(d) an Environmental Specialist; (e) an M&E Specialist; and (f) an M&E data entry clerk, together with a Program Assistant. In support of the above nationally recruited staff, international specialists would be recruited to provide specialized support on a periodic basis in project management, financial management, procurement and M&E. The Government will provide counterpart staff for the Project Manager, Financial Management Specialist, and M&E Specialist. Considerable technical input will, however, be required, especially in the first 18 months, to revalidate and prioritize both the large and small (community-implemented) sub-projects identified in the revised CIM Plans, which will provide the planning framework for investments under Component 1. Accordingly, the project will provide some three person-years of short-term technical assistance (coastal engineer, coastal geomorphologist, climate change specialist, ecosystems specialist, and GIS specialist) to undertake this revalidation. Technical assistance will also be provided in cases where more detailed technical review is needed, and especially for sub-projects implemented by the communities and CSOs through the CSSP. Logistical support will also be provided. At mid-term or before, as deemed necessary, discussions will be held with other donors and multilateral agencies supporting the PMU with a view to strengthening administrative and operational complementarities including through cost-sharing.
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Annex 3: Implementation Arrangements
COUNTRY: SAMOA
Enhancing the Climate Resilience of Coastal Resources and Communities Project Institutional and Implementation Arrangements Institutional Background and Context
1. The institutional arrangements established by the Government to respond to the challenges of climate change have served the country well, and Samoa has been recognized internationally for its proactive response to strengthening climate resilience and disaster risk reduction. An important output from the first phase Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR) was the Climate Resilience Investment Program (CRIP), which the Government approved in 2011. The CRIP provides a broad-based strategy for achieving climate resilience at the national level based on the Strategy for the Development of Samoa (SDS), the National Adaptation Plan of Action (NAPA), and other policy and planning instruments. A number of projects have also been effectively implemented, including the World Bank-assisted SIAM-1 and SIAM-2, which drew upon the expertise developed by the Ministry of Natural Resources and the Environment (MNRE) to address climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction. 2. Increasingly, however, the Government, and particularly MNRE, faces capacity constraints in responding efficiently to the growing contributions from bilateral and multilateral donors in support of these efforts. These constraints have been compounded by the different institutional and operational requirements of various donor agencies. Therefore, while much has been achieved, a consensus is emerging that to scale up and more comprehensively address climate resilience issues, there is a need for not only capacity development, but also long-term institutional strengthening, and a comprehensive institutional framework and approach. 3. The recent Situation Analysis20 completed under the first phase of the PPCR captures many of the key points of concern. While there has been some progress since the analysis was undertaken, the issues it raised, remain pertinent. The analysis notes, for example, that “for the integration and proper implementation of climate change and disaster risk reduction Programs to occur, it is essential to incorporate resilience into all priority areas identified in the Strategy for the Development of Samoa, with full monitoring and evaluation frameworks developed to measure the success (or otherwise) of identified outcome targets” in key sectors. The Situation Analysis also notes that despite some achievements, “there is limited knowledge in some sector planning committees, and it has usually been the MOF that incorporates climate and climate related issues into sector plans.” Further, while “Climate change and disaster risk reduction issues have been around for some time, they have largely been treated as an issue belonging to one particular ministry,” notably MNRE. Additionally, mechanisms to monitor the effectiveness
20 Situation Analysis: Policy, Institutional and Legal Framework for a Climate Resilient Samoa, GoS 2012.
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of climate mitigating measures or disaster response plans from an economic development economic perspective have yet to be created. 4. In recognition of these issues, the CRIP embodies three main principles to guide interventions: (a) the PPCR (and related activities) should build upon the extensive work already undertaken and the wide experience that has resulted; (b) there is a need to ensure coordination and integration of PPCR (and related activities) with Samoa’s many ongoing and planned activities related to climate change; and (c) to the extent possible, coordination and implementation of the CRIP should be done through existing institutions. Institutional Framework 5. In light of this background, the proposed institutional arrangements to be supported under the ECR would have the following key features:
The Institutional Framework would provide for a programmatic approach to climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction, to facilitate synergies among various projects and funding sources.
The Framework would be built around existing Government structures and processes, and provide opportunities for additional institutional strengthening and streamlining of procedures through other fund sources.
The arrangements would be able to accommodate and respond efficiently to the varying administrative and reporting requirements of different bilateral and multilateral donors.
Capacity constraints would be specifically addressed through both short-term arrangements and provision for longer-term and more sustainable capacity building.
Operational Guidelines would be prepared as part of the ECR project to provide a platform of administrative and operational arrangements to support a programmatic, multi-donor approach.
An initial M&E capability would be established in support of the longer-term need for a database and capability to assess what climate change and disaster risk activities are being undertaken, and the extent to which the threats posed by climate change are being adequately addressed.
Project Oversight and Strategic Guidance 6. Steering Committee. The existing PPCR Steering Committee would be responsible for providing policy guidance and oversight of project implementation. Regular meetings would be held every six months, or more often as needed. Membership of the Steering Committee comprises the CEO-MOF as chair, together with CEOs from each of the sector agencies, the Civil Society Support Program Manager (CSSP), and representatives of the Chamber of Commerce, Samoa Umbrella for Non-Governmental Organizations (SUNGO), and Women in Business. The key functions of the Steering Committee would be to provide policy and strategic guidance, implementation oversight, and inter-sectoral coordination. The Steering Committee would be responsible for approving annual work programs and budgets for the project (see
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below), which inter alia would detail district and community-level sub-projects, their budgets, and proposed implementing agencies. 7. Secretariat. The Climate Resilience Investment Coordination Unit (CRICU) of the MOF would provide secretariat functions for the Steering Committee. The functions of this unit would be to prepare documentation and the agenda for Steering Committee meetings, and coordinate the follow-up of directions from the Steering Committee. The CRICU would draw heavily upon project reports and related information to be provided by the Program Management Unit (PMU) (see below). To the extent the CRICU coordinates the flow and accountability of funds for climate change, it is well placed to monitor the degree to which climate resilience programs are reflected in annual agency and sector plans. Project Execution 8. The Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MNRE) would be responsible for day-to-day oversight of the Program Management Unit (see below). This function is premised on the need for MNRE to maintain both a technical leadership role in climate change adaptation, and the capacity to oversee the extent to which investment plans and programs are adequately addressing the development challenges posed by climate change. That said, the institutional framework to be supported under the PPCR would seek to further encourage and support sector agencies to internalize climate change as an important dimension to be incorporated and monitored in their regular sector planning and investment programs. Placing the PMU under the oversight of MNRE would facilitate the clearance process for sub-projects while also providing for a more comprehensive overview by MNRE of the scope of implementation of CIM Plans.21 Over the longer term, it is envisaged that the experience gained in executing projects through the PMU would strengthen the capacity of MNRE to better integrate and attract support from various donors for MNRE programs, while having the in-house expertise to administer financial management, procurement, and reporting requirements of different funding sources. The proposed Institutional Framework would also seek to develop an M&E capacity in MNRE to provide a database and capability to assess what climate change and disaster risk activities are being undertaken, and the extent to which the threats posed by climate change are being adequately addressed. Project Management 9. A Project Management Unit (PMU) would be established with the capacity to administer the implementation of multiple externally funded projects supporting climate adaptation and disaster risk reduction. Initially, it would administer funding from the ECR project, the Adaptation Fund, and the envisaged funding from GEF-LDCF. To address immediate capacity constraints, it is proposed that key staff for the PMU would be externally recruited, possibly
21 Coastal Infrastructure Management Plans (CIMs) were undertaken in two phases through World Bank-assisted projects—SIAM 1 from 2000-03 and SIAM 2 from 2004-07. The CIM Strategy was originally prepared in 2000 and revised in 2006 to include specific reference to climate change-related issues. In particular the predicted hazard zones were reviewed against the NAPA data (2005) and the Climate Risk Profiles (2007), and reference was made to expected land use impacts from more frequent and intense cyclone events.
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through hiring of a firm that would provide the staff. Moreover, to accelerate project start-up and accommodate different financial management, procurement, and reporting requirements, it is proposed that each project managed by the PMU would initially need to provide for its own technical specialists and logistical requirements. It is envisaged, however, that through the assignment of counterpart staff and/or locally hired staff (also supported through various projects), sufficient capacity could be established within three to five-year time frame to enable some projects to co-fund shared specialist positions. 10. The proposed staff for the ECR project to be provided by a firm under a management services contract would comprise a Project Manager, Procurement Specialist, Financial Management Specialist, Environment Specialist and Monitoring and Evaluation Specialist. The Project Manager and Financial Management Specialist would be funded for the five years of project implementation, while the Procurement, Environment and M&E Specialists would be full time during the first year and work periodically thereafter. The arrangement will be re-assessed at mid-term, or sooner if deemed necessary. Government counterpart staff would be assigned to support project management, financial management and M&E functions. An M&E Data Processor would also have to be hired for the duration of the project. Some three person-years of short-term technical assistance (coastal engineer, coastal geomorphologist, climate change specialist, ecosystems specialist, and a GIS specialist) will also be provided separately from the management services contract to support the revalidation of the CIM Plans and prioritization of sub-projects (including analytical work) based on those Plans. The project will also provide for technical backstopping for sub-project implementation, and provide logistical support for the PMU. Project Implementing Agencies 11. As discussed below (see Implementation Arrangements), the Coastal Infrastructure Management Plans would provide the main planning framework through which district and community-based sub-project investments and activities would be supported. Larger sub-projects would, however, be implemented by the responsible sector agencies, smaller projects by Village Council CIM sub-committees supported by CSOs. Based on an indicative matrix of activities identified from the CIM Plans before revalidation, key sector agencies expected to be involved in project implementation would be MNRE, MWCSD, Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries, the Land Transport Authority, and the Samoa Water Authority. The project will not undertake works that are already part of the normal budgeted responsibilities of these agencies. For small community-based sub-projects, the CSSP would be used to contract with appropriate CSOs following well-established procedures. As discussed further below, the Steering Committee’s approval of the Annual Work Program and Budget for the project would be the basis on which MOF would release funds to the respective implementing sector agencies or to the CSSP. Implementation Arrangements 12. Phasing. The project would be implemented over five years and encompass 16 districts and some 99 communities. It would complement the support being provided under the Adaptation Fund for the other 25 districts in the country. To facilitate project start-up, activities
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would initially be focused on the eight contiguous districts associated with the planned upgrading of the Apia-Airport road to be supported under the World Bank/PPCR assisted West Coast Road project. The goal would be to assist communities in undertaking investments and activities that would contribute to improving their resilience to climate change, while also providing synergies with the investment in the airport road upgrade. Support for the other eight districts would be phased in as CIM Plans are updated. 13. Implementation Plan Framework. The CIM Plans initially prepared in 2000 and updated in 200622 provide the planning framework for sub-project prioritization and support. CIM Plans are available for all districts and communities. While in need of revalidation, they provide a solid basis for providing support responsive to community-identified needs. The 2006 updating of the CIM Strategy included more direct references to climate change and provided more direction for how adaptation strategies could be incorporated into the CIM Plans. Linkages to disaster risk management were also strengthened with the requirement that CIM Plans include consideration of village preparedness, response and recovery actions. As part of project preparation, the CIM Plans for the initial eight districts have been prioritized and costed as a basis for developing overall project costs. A first step in implementation would be the revalidation of those priorities with the districts and communities concerned. Project Management, Work Programming and Budgeting 14. The Project Management Unit (PMU) would, in the first instance, be responsible for the revalidation of CIM Plans and the prioritization of investments in consultation with communities. The PMU would then develop work programs and budgets based on those Plans, and submit them to the Steering Committee for approval. The work program and budget documents would identify the proposed implementing agency based on the following criteria: (a) only sub-projects costing <WST$500,000 would be eligible for support under the project; (b) sub-projects costing between WST$50,000 and WST$500,000 would be implemented by the responsible sector agency; and (c) sub-projects costing<WST$50,0000 would be implemented by CSOs with grants provided through the CSSP (see below). Approval of the annual work programs and budgets would coincide with regular public expenditure timetables and guidelines. Once approved, funds would be released directly by the MOF to the approved implementing agency following regular government procedures or to the CSSP for release to CSOs. 15. The PMU’s Project Management Team would be responsible for the day-to day management of the project, including (a) revalidation of CIM plans and development of work program and budget documents for approval of the Steering Committee as described above; (b) coordination and technical/procurement/financial management backstopping as needed for the sector agencies and CSSP-contracted CSOs responsible for sub-project implementation; (c) financial management, including follow-up with sector agencies and preparation of withdrawal applications in conjunction with the MOF Climate Resilience Investment Coordination Unit (CRICU); (d) development of an M&E system capable of monitoring the indicators defined in the project’s Results Framework; (e) preparation of progress, procurement, and financial reports
22 The CIM Plans for the 16 districts in the ECR project were prepared during the second phase in 2006/07 (except three which were prepared in 2001/02 (Aana Alofi I, Falealili and Palauli i Sasa'e)).
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as required by the Government and the World Bank; (f) compilation of Operational Guidelines and Manuals for the PMU, covering Financial Management, Procurement, and M&E, to provide the administrative and operational platform for a programmatic approach; and (g) provision of training for PMU counterpart staff, and in collaboration with other technical experts assigned to the PMU, seek ways to develop synergies to enhance the efficiency and sustainable capacity of the PMU. 16. Implementing Agencies. Implementation will be through the responsible sector agency or through CSOs. Based on the indicative matrix of sub-projects developed from revised CIM Plans for the eight districts adjoining the Apia-Airport road, the main implementing agencies are expected to be: (a) Land Transport Authority (LTA); (b) Samoa Water Authority (SWA); (c) Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries; and (d) Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment. All of these sector agencies have the required experience, having been involved in implementing World Bank-assisted projects. 17. Technical Review and Support. As most sub-projects will be small and well within the technical capacity of the responsible sector implementing agency or CSO, the need for technical support from the PMU will be minimal, other than during the initial review and prioritization as part of work programming and budgeting. Considerable technical input will, however, be required to revalidate and prioritize sub-projects identified in the revised CIM Plans, especially during the first 18 months of the project. In cases where more detailed technical review is needed, especially for sub-projects implemented by a community organization through the CSSP, the PMU would either need to provide this or coordinate with the relevant sector agency for the required technical input. Accordingly, some three man-years of short-term technical assistance, comprising a coastal engineer, coastal geomorphologist, climate change specialist, ecosystems specialist, and a GIS specialist, will be provided for the PMU.
18. Monitoring and Evaluation. The PMU will be responsible for M&E, which is expected that this would be an important area for collaboration between technical experts provided under the PPCR and the Adaptation Fund. The goal is to establish an M&E capacity that would serve both projects while also paving the way for sustaining and strengthening this capacity in MNRE. The longer-term goal would be to provide a database and assessment capability of what climate change and disaster risk activities are being undertaken, and the extent to which the threats posed by climate change are being adequately addressed. It is anticipated that additional support from LDCF, may further contribute to the development of this important capability. Financial Management, Disbursement and Procurement Financial Management 19. The Financial Management (FM) Assessment was conducted and it was determined that the FM risk for the project is Substantial after implementation of mitigation measures. World Bank oversight will be through on site implementation reviews at least every six months by a designated Financial Management Specialist. In addition, quarterly Interim Financial Reports (IFRs) shall be submitted to the Bank within 45 days of the end of the reporting quarter, and
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annual audits of the project to be furnished to the Bank within 6 months of the end of the audited period. 20. The main FM risks relating to this project and relevant mitigation measures are summarized in paragraphs 60 and 61 respectively of the main text. 21. Budgeting arrangements. The detailed budget for the first three years of the project will be prepared by MNRE and subject to annual reviews. The budget will be consistent with the project’s procurement plan but will include additional expenditure not covered in the procurement plan. The Financial Management Specialist will monitor the budget throughout the life of the project. 22. Accounting arrangements. MNRE, through the Finance Management Specialist, will prepare the accounting documentation for each transaction and remit it to MOF for payment. MOF will make the payment and record the information into GOFAR (the Government Finance and Reporting System), based on Finance One accounting software. 23. As the GOFAR records project expenditure under one line, the project will be required to maintain additional accounting records to enable dissection of information for reporting purposes. 24. To ensure consistency between the MOF and MNRE records, MOF will provide monthly transaction listings, which the project will reconcile with its own records. 25. Sub-grants, which could number more than 99 as some villages could have more than one, will be monitored individually by MNRE using a database. 26. Internal controls. Where possible, the project will comply with the Government of Samoa’s accounting processes, and ensure that the authorization and payment processes are clearly segregated. All payment vouchers will be prepared by the project team and authorized by MNRE (responsible ACEOs/CEO) and reviewed by MOF before payment is processed through MOF. As part of the Government’s internal controls, all project expenditures will be reviewed by the Samoan Audit Office prior to the payment being authorized. 27. A manual will be developed to cover sub-grant procedures. All smaller grants will be channeled through the Civil Society Support Program, which will oversee the work on specific sub-projects. Where practicable, payments will be made directly to suppliers and funds will be released in tranches, 50 percent on signing of the specific sub-grant agreement, 40 percent on expending 40 percent of the sub-project funds, and 10 percent on expending 80 percent of the sub-project funds. Both the Civil Society Support Program and the project team will review each expenditure for eligibility. For the larger grants, MOF will oversee the disbursement of funds to line agencies. 28. Flow of funds. Flow of funds between the World Bank and MNRE will be according to the Bank’s established disbursement procedures. A Designated Account (DA) will be opened at the Central Bank of Samoa (CBS) and will be managed by MOF. Payments to suppliers will be
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prepared by MNRE through the project staff and reviewed by MOF before processing through the government accounts and paid from the treasury account. On a regular basis, the government treasury account will be reimbursed from the Designated Account. There will be monthly reconciliations of the DA and these will be forwarded to the MNRE. 29. External audit. The Samoa Audit Office (SAO) will conduct an annual audit of the project accounts, and the audit report shall be received by the Bank within 6 months of the end of each reporting period. The SAO has extensive experience in auditing government departments and World Bank-funded projects, and is an auditor acceptable to the Bank. 30. SAO will be requested to pay specific attention to expenditures for the sub-grants program, as there is a greater risk of poor documentation, ineligible expenditure, and incomplete acquittals. Disbursement 31. The project will use three disbursement methods: advance, reimbursement, and direct payment. 32. In order to facilitate the means of payment for the majority of day-to-day expenses, the Bank will advance funds to the DA of the project. The ACDMD/MOF and MNRE will comprise the authorizing officers. The documentation required for the replenishment of the advance will be by Statement of Expenditure, and while documentation will not be required to be submitted with the payment request, except for those contracts subject to prior review, the project will be expected to retain documentation for audit and review by World Bank staff. 33. The project staff will prepare all withdrawal applications, which will be sent along with accompanying documentation to MOF for checking, signing and submission to the World Bank. 34. The project will have two disbursement categories for eligible expenditures, as outlined in the table below:
Category Amount of the Grant Allocated (expressed in USD)
Percentage of Expenditures to be Financed (inclusive of Taxes)
1 Goods, works, non-consulting services, consultants’ services, training and Operating Costs, for the Project (excluding Part 1(b))
5,200,000 100%
(2) Goods, works and non-consulting services for Subprojects under Part 1(b) of the Project to be financed out of the proceeds of Sub-grants
9,400,000 100%
TOTAL AMOUNT 14,600,000
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Procurement 35. Guidelines. Procurement will be carried out in accordance with the Bank’s “Guidelines:
Procurement of Goods, Works and Non-consulting Services under IBRD Loans and IDA Credits & Grants by World Bank Borrowers,” dated January 2011 (“Procurement Guidelines”); and “Guidelines: Selection and Employment of Consultants under IBRD Loans and IDA Credits & Grants by World Bank Borrowers” dated January 2011 (“Consultant Guidelines”); and the provisions stipulated in the Financing Agreement(s).
36. Procurement under community sub-projects. Sub-projects will include small-value
(<US$22,720) works or services implemented by the communities, in collaboration with civil society organizations (CSOs). Procurement of goods and equipment for the works will be carried out by the CSOs, based on procedures agreed with the Bank and detailed in the Community Engagement Plan (CEP), to be developed in the first year of implementation. Simplified procurement plans will be used to identify items to be procured under community sub-projects, and will be included in the approved sub-project proposals.
37. Procurement of goods and works. Goods to be procured by the PMU include office equipment and goods (including vehicles and boats) to facilitate project implementation, and “LiDAR” services (under limited international bidding). Procurement of works, goods and services for sub-projects estimated between US$22,720 and US$227,200 would be carried out by the PMU, under shopping procedures.
38. Selection of consultants. Consultants will be hired for project management and
implementation support services, technical assistance for updating and implementing CIM plans, data capture and management, engineering and advisory services, capacity building of communities and CSOs, and development and delivery of communication programs. Civil society organizations will be hired to assist communities in the preparation and implementation of sub-projects.
39. Thresholds, documents and templates. Thresholds, sample documents and templates, as
provided in the Bank’s Guidance Manual, “Making Procurement and Financial Management Work for Fragile and Small States in the Pacific,” dated January 2013, and agreed with the Government, will be followed for procurement carried out by the PMU, while adhering to the Government’s approval thresholds. The Bank’s latest Standard Bidding and Request for Proposal documents will be used, respectively, for all procurement under International Competitive Bidding, and for the selection of consulting firms.
40. Procurement plan. A summary of the major procurement activities envisaged under the
project is provided below. A detailed initial procurement plan will be finalized prior to negotiations. The detailed plan will include, for each activity, the procurement or consultant selection method, the estimated cost, prior review requirements, and the timeframe for each step in the process. The procurement plan will be updated at least annually, to reflect actual project implementation needs and updated risk assessment.
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#
Contract Description
Est. Cost (USDmln)
Bank
Review (Prior/ Post)
Proc. Method
Implementation Scheduling (Month/Year)
Procurement Process
Contract Completi
on
Invite Bids/
Proposals
Receive Bids/
Proposals
Award Contract
1 Component 1
1.1 TA for review & update of CIM Plans
0.7 Prior QCBS May 14,
2014 Jun 15, 2014
Dec 12, 2014
Jun 10, 2015
1.2
CSOs (5) to assist in development & implementation of community sub-projects
0.25 Post FBS May 14,
2014 Jun 15, 2014
Nov 12, 2014
Jun 30, 2018
1.3 TA for CIM implementation
0.28 Prior QCBS Mar 15,
2015 Apr 15,
2015 Oct 12, 2015
Jun 30, 2018
Component 2
2.1 LiDAR Services 1.2 Prior LIB Mar 15,
2014
Apr 15,
2014 May 7, 2014
Oct 5, 2014
2.2
TA for CSO Training 0.03 Post IC May 31,
2014 Jun 14, 2014
Sep 12, 2014
Sep 12, 2015
2.3
TA for development & implementation of communication programs
0.03 Post FBS May 14,
2014 Jun 15, 2014
Nov 12, 2014
May 11, 2015
2.4 TA for Engineering Services
0.5 Prior QCBS May 14,
2014 Jun 15, 2014
Dec 12, 2014
Jun 30, 2018
2.5 TA for Data Capture & Management
0.2 Post QCBS May 14,
2014 Jun 15, 2014
Nov 11, 2014
Jun 30, 2018
Component 3
3.1 Technical advisory support (4 nos.)
0.35 Post IC Mar 31,
2014 Apr 14,
2014 Jul 13, 2014
Jun 30, 2018
3.2 Project Management Services
1.3 Prior QCBS Mar 15,
2014 Apr 15,
2014 Oct 12, 2014
Dec 31, 2018
Total: 41. Capacity assessment. Although the MNRE has prior experience with Bank-financed projects,
it has inadequate in-house staff numbers to implement a large capital investment portfolio.
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This will necessitate the hiring of consultants for fiduciary, contract management, safeguards monitoring, technical, and other support services.
42. The Government’s Tender Board and the Cabinet of Ministers approve contracts of more
than US$22,720 and US$227,020, respectively. All contracts above US$22,720 are subject to clearance by the Attorney General’s Office, prior to signing.
43. Risk mitigation. The procurement risk assessment and mitigation actions have been entered in the project portal. Procurement risk is rated substantial and actions to mitigate the risks include:
implementation of a system to track decision-making, with service standards, to mitigate the risk of delays due to a layered approval process;
inclusion in the project Operations Manual of detailed procurement processing procedures (including those relating to community sub-projects), and dissemination to implementing staff and participating CSOs, to mitigate the risk of non-compliance;
appointment of project management (fiduciary, safeguards, contract management, and monitoring) and technical advisory services to mitigate the risk of implementation delays, non-compliance, and poor quality outputs;
publication of all contract awards and establishment of an independent complaints review process, to mitigate the risk of inadequate oversight.
44. Procurement arrangements. The Ministry of Finance will hire a firm to provide the project
management services and will manage the ensuing contract, while delegating responsibility to MNRE for coordination and supervision of the contract outputs. MNRE will ensure that in-house staff is assigned to work closely with the technical consultants, to ensure knowledge transfer. The project management firm will be responsible for managing the procurement process for all contracts under the project, and for following up on contract deliverables. Consultants will assist MNRE in delivering the community grants component through civil society organizations working together with the communities. A three-party agreement will be signed between MNRE, the beneficiary community and the participating CSO, for each community sub-project.
45. Supervision arrangements. Procurement support missions will be conducted by the Bank’s
procurement specialist every six months to help expedite resolution of any processing issues that arise, and post reviews will be conducted annually.
Environmental and Social Safeguards
46. An Environmental and Social Management Framework (ESMF) has been prepared by the Government of Samoa with the assistance of consultants and has involved the review of documentation prepared in recent years for coastal infrastructure development and building climate resilience, most notably Coastal Infrastructure Management Plans prepared for each project district, site visits, consultations with vulnerable communities and project design. The ESMF has the following objectives:
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To establish clear procedures and methodologies for the environmental and social planning, screening, review, approval and implementation of subprojects to be financed under the Project;
To specify appropriate roles and responsibilities, and outline the necessary reporting procedures, for managing and monitoring environmental and social concerns, including those relating to gender and different sub-groups within the beneficiary communities, that will arise from the subprojects;
To determine the training, capacity building and technical assistance needed to successfully implement the provisions of the ESMF;
To establish the project funding required to implement the ESMF requirements; and
To provide practical resources for implementing the ESMF.
Project Target Areas
47. The project will operate in the following sixteen districts: NW Upolu Aana Alofi 1 Aana Alofi 2 Aana Alofi 3 FaleataSasa'e(East) FaleataiSisifo(West) Sagaga le Falefa Sagaga le Usoga
SE Upolu Falealili Lotofaga Lepa Aleipata Itupa i Luga Aleipata Itupa i Lalo
Savai’i Gaga'emauga 1 A&B (NE) Gagaifomauga 3 (NW) Palauli i Sisifo (SW) Palauli i Sasa'e (SE)
48. Subprojects will comprise specific initiatives or groups of initiatives, identified in revised CIM plans that will enhance the resilience of communities to climate change. These initiatives will be chosen to either avoid, accommodate or protect against natural hazards. The following measures are envisaged:
Strategy for Resilience Possible measures Avoidance of natural hazards Development restrictions
Relocation
Ceasing sand mining on beaches Accommodation of natural hazards Maintenance of existing structures
Implementation of early warning systems
Raising building platform levels
Restoration of damaged mangrove forests
Coastal revegetation
Riparian revegetation
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Coral reef flat habitat improvement Protect against natural hazards Beach nourishment
Construction of groynes
Offshore structures
Rock revetment
Geobag walls
Vertical seawalls
Earthen embankment
River training
49. In each case, these measures and the situations to which they are suited must be clearly understood. Descriptions of each measure including their key attributes are described in the Methodological Framework prepared for the project. 50. The following Environmental and Social Safeguard Policies are triggered as a result of the Project activities, requiring the Borrower to prepare the safeguards instruments (ESMF, LARF) to guide detailed planning once sub-projects are identified firmly at a later stage of Project planning.
SafeguardPoliciesTriggered Yes NoEnvironmentalAssessment(OP/BP4.01) X NaturalHabitats(OP/BP4.04) X Forests(OP/BP/4.36) X PestManagement(OP4.09) XPhysicalCulturalResources(OP/BP4.11) X IndigenousPeoples(OP/BP4.10) X InvoluntaryResettlement(OP/BP4.12) X SafetyofDams(OP/BP4.37) XProjectsonInternationalWaterways(OP/BP7.50) XProjectsinDisputedAreas(OP/BP7.60) X
51. OP/BP 4.01: Environmental Assessment. The Project intends to finance a variety of types of small scale structures and ecological based measures that can, in some cases, have adverse environmental impacts. The ESMF checklist, is designed to identify these potential impacts, and direct CSOs and communities and to practical ways of avoiding or mitigating them. For subprojects identified through use of the checklist as having potential significant environmental impacts and/or those with a physical works value of $50,000 or more an assessment of environmental effects will be made and an environmental management plan prepared. These will be submitted with other subproject documents, which include subproject descriptions, cost estimates, a subproject rationale, description of alternatives considered and location map, and includes the information required for a preliminary environmental assessment report (PEAR).
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52. OP/BP 4.04: Natural Habitats and OP/BP 4.36 Forests. The Project area encompasses a number of protected areas and key biodiversity areas, and may fund subprojects that may be located in, or adjacent to these and in such cases the potential to cause encroachment or to introduce access to natural habitats which did not previously exist will be examined. Some subprojects could be located in or adjacent to ecologically sensitive sites such as protected areas and key biodiversity areas. Assessment of impacts to Natural Habitats and Forests will be assessed through OP 4.01 Environmental Assessment. 53. OP/BP 4.11: Physical Cultural Resources. Samoa has a distinctive and long founded culture, featuring a communal way of life known as Fa’a Samoa. Distinctive music, dress, faith, family structures and cuisine have evolved. To mitigate against the potential for adverse impacts on cultural property, the checklist will help ensure that Cultural property resources are identified during subproject planning, and appropriate measures are taken to avoid damaging them. There is a possibility that items of archaeological significance such as graves, pigeon mounds (tie seu lupe) could be revealed, and artefacts such as adzes, potsherds and stone flakes unearthed. Known sacred or cultural sites will be avoided in design and planning. Chance finds of Physical Cultural Resources are addressed in the ESMF. Procedures for such chance finds will be incorporated into civil works Contracts and into agreements with CSOs. 54. OP/BP 4.10: Indigenous Peoples. The indigenous Polynesian people comprise 93 percent of the population, which is culturally homogeneous, does not self-identify and is not recognized as different from mainstream society, and uses a common language. The balance are mainly the descendants of German, Chinese, Melanesian and Polynesian migrants who have been largely absorbed into the Samoan social system, although few have access to land except through ties of affinity. A Social Assessment has been prepared. The report draws on stakeholder consultations carried out to date, including consultations with a sample of targeted (affected) communities. It confirms the dominance of fa’a Samoa—Samoan culture and custom—in the Constitution and law on land dealings, which prohibits alienation of customary land. The Indigenous Peoples policy is considered triggered in compliance with WB policy/directive for all WB funded projects in the Pacific Island Countries. Samoa is culturally and ethnically homogenous but there is a deep collective attachment to the land and resources for which OP 4.10 requirement for consultations, participation and benefit sharing is necessary. As the vast majority of project beneficiaries are indigenous peoples, no stand-alone Indigenous Peoples Plan (IPP) has been prepared. OP 4.10 requirements are incorporated into the project design and the ESMF. This includes provisions—which are central to the project—that aim to ensure that land-based livelihoods are protected and benefits are culturally appropriate and equitably shared. These provisions will be further elaborated in the procedures mandated in the CEP that will be prepared prior to any financing of sub-project activities in local communities. Sub-projects will be community based and prepared with close participation of local communities; as the beneficiaries will be solely of overwhelmingly indigenous peoples, sub-project proposals will include OP 4.10 requirements and separate IPPs are not required for sub-projects. 55. OP/BP 4.12: Involuntary Resettlement. Communities themselves will develop subproject proposals and apply for funding. Many land impacts will be on public land or easements, or village land selected and donated voluntarily by the beneficiary community as part of the usual community contribution in CSSP projects. Similarly, land transport projects for villages do not
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proceed without landowner/community consent, and do not involve involuntary land acquisition or payment of compensation. The LTA form of consent is in an Annex. Displacement resulting in involuntary (i) relocation, loss of shelter, loss of assets or access to assets important to production; (ii) loss of income sources or means of livelihood; or (iii) the loss of access to locations that provide higher incomes or lower expenditures to businesses or persons is therefore unlikely. However, right of eminent domain exists at law through the Taking of Land Act 1964. A Land Acquisition and Resettlement Framework have been prepared to guide MNRE in RAP preparation for specific subprojects should involuntary impacts arise. 56. The triggered policies are indicative of the varied range of hard engineering and soft “green” solutions that are to be considered for implementation, and the ecosystem based ridge-to-reef approach to environmental planning the Project is applying. The preparation of detailed plans to address impacts under the respective policies will be the responsibility of MNRE later in the project planning process, once sub-projects are identified. 57. Initial screening based on field investigations, stakeholder consultations and a review of potential options for implementation indicates an assessment of Category “B” for the Project. It finds that potential impacts are less significant, site specific, mostly reversible and that a range of potential measures for mitigation can be readily designed in the majority of cases. Subproject Exclusions 58. A methodology for updating CIM plans taking into account an understanding of coastal processes, ecology based approaches, and the reef to ridge concept, has been prepared to guide the identification and design of project activities. This will be a participatory process and is specifically intended to avoid the construction of maladaptive coastal or other infrastructure, and to identify and implement solutions well adapted to the coastal or upper catchment environment. Because of this level of guidance toward interventions designed to be sustainable, few exclusions appear. However, the following activities will be excluded from the scope of the subprojects:
Sand mining
Land reclamation
Clearance of areas of biodiversity significance such as mangrove forests
Use of pesticides
59. In addition the following types of activity will not be funded by the project: Structures that sever breeding routes for marine organisms (such as vertical sea walls of
a height greater than 0.5m and length of more than 20m)
Structures that known to be likely to alter coastal processes and cause coastal erosion
60. The key responsibilities for the implementation of safeguards are summarized in the table below:
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Tasks Responsible party/organization Subproject Preparation Design in accordance with ecology based and community based approaches
PMU with the assistance of PPCR Implementation Consultants
Environmental Assessment and EMP Preparation
PMU with the assistance of PPCR Implementation Consultants
Review and approval of EMP PUMA Undertake detailed measurement surveys, and RAP, if required
PMU with the assistance of PPCR Implementation Consultants
Design Phase Incorporation of mitigation measures into design
PMU with the assistance of PPCR Implementation Consultants
Prepare cost estimates PMU with the assistance of PPCR Implementation Consultants
Review and approval of designs PUMA Approve budget PUMA Construction Implement measures required in EMP and RAP
CSOs and/or Contractor(s)
Establish Grievance Redress Committee Contractor and MNRE Monitor compliance with EMP and RAP PMU with the assistance of PPCR Implementation
Consultants Operation Maintenance and Management Village Committees, with support from CSOs, and
technical assistance from MNRE; line agencies for larger scale projects
Disclosure
61. Requirement for disclosure is mandated by the Environmental Assessment, Involuntary Resettlement, Indigenous Peoples and Forest Policies. The ESMF and LARF were disclosed in Samoa on September 23, 2013 and in the World Bank InfoShop on September 24, 2013 for the ESMF and September 27, 2013 for the LARF. For the resettlement framework, a draft Project Information Booklet (PIB) summarising the Project, potential impacts and arrangements for compensation was appended in English and Samoan. Social 62. The upgrading of CIM Plans may involve integration with existing Sustainable Development, Disaster Risk, and Watershed Management Plans that could require engineering interventions such as road, bridge, and drainage construction. Village-scale projects aimed at food, water, energy, communications, security, human and environmental health and hygiene, and strengthening of social and physical infrastructure may be funded. 63. Safeguarding society is central to the project. The project approach supports the work of MWCSD under the Village Sustainable Development Plan, which emphasizes identification of resilience skills and resources as well as needs for external help, and along with partner donors, supports capacity building of Village Committees.
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64. The broader social aims of the project will be delivered through public awareness raising during updating of CIMs, and training of CSOs to assist communities with grant applications and to implement the CIM Plans. Three reports have been prepared on the social aspects of the project: (a) Social Assessment (SA) to identify any Indigenous Peoples’ issues - the report emphasizes the importance of discussion on land issues to guide resettlement planning, and describes the role of customary approaches and rights in community consultations and action plans; (b) Civil Society Assessment to identify the challenges facing CSOs and recommend capacity building strategies to enable them to engage more effectively with communities in building climate resilience; and (c) Gender Impact Assessment.23 65. Women constitute 48 percent of the population, and 21 percent of heads of households. They have higher percentages of academic achievement at the secondary and tertiary levels than men. Only 23 percent of women versus 58 percent of men of economically active age (over 15 years of age) are employed, but a much lower percentage of women are engaged in subsistence work - less than 8 percent of employed women versus 46 percent of men. More than 70 percent of the non-economically active population over the age of 15, predominantly female homemakers, are engaged in domestic duties. The Gender Assessment noted that this portion of the population represents a relatively well-educated human resource that can be mobilized to meet climate resilience challenges. It is therefore particularly important that women be fully engaged and consulted in preparation and implementation of the revised CIM Plans. 66. The gender report differentiated the impacts of climate change in Samoa on women and men, young and old, and other disadvantaged groups, whose situation is exacerbated by climate change phenomena. Some of the key findings of the report, based on community consultations, show that there have been distinct shifts in the traditional roles of men and women due to climate change. For instance, multiple climate catastrophes in the last few years have forced traditional women healers to look for other job opportunities due to the loss of medicinal plants/herbs which are necessary to conduct their work. This is coupled with a lack of understanding and recognition of these gender differentiated impacts at the village level which, according to the report, can put Samoan communities at greater vulnerability to climate shocks in the future. Therefore, the report proposes gendered approaches for the PPCR that includes a Gender Monitoring Framework (GMF) to be examined at the outset of the project and during implementation.
67. The proposed GMF includes a set of questions to be monitored both (a) at the beginning of the sub-project design phase, to provide a baseline for gender issues and ensure that the sub-projects do not produce unintended consequences or issues; and (b) during the planning and project implementation phases, to monitor progress and compare changes of gendered impacts of climate change. The indicators relevant to the ECR project have been included in the Results Monitoring Framework. These may be augmented by indicators identified in community consultations as the project progresses. A survey is to be performed twice during the project. This will offer the opportunity to obtain quantitative and qualitative feedback on gender impacts. 68. The findings of all three preparatory studies are integrated into the ECR project design. A Community Engagement Plan (CEP) will be developed with the participation of the MWCSD, 23 Understanding Gender-Differentiated Impacts of Disasters and Climate Change in Samoa (in draft).
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CSSP, CSOs, and a technical expert from MNRE; and will also be informed by the study findings. The CEP will integrate awareness raising materials arising from the CIMs review, communications, climate and disaster resilience, environmental and social safeguards activities, and will form part of the Project Operations Manual. After the development of the CEP, CSOs will be trained with assistance from the CSSP to assist communities in applying for sub-project grants to implement various aspects of the CIM Plans. Technical assistance from the PMU and relevant line agencies will also be available to evaluate proposals for funding. Qualified CSOs will then be engaged to work with CIM implementation teams within the Village Councils in beneficiary communities to assist with and monitor implementation. Monitoring & Evaluation 69. The PMU will be responsible for M&E, which is expected to be an important area for collaboration between the ECR and AF projects. Technical experts for the PMU will be provided by both the PPCR and the Adaptation Fund, and will serve both projects. It is envisaged that the M&E capacity established in the PMU will help to sustain and strengthen this capacity in the MNRE. The M&E facility will be responsible for sharing lessons learned and good practices with the MNRE and with regional PPCR projects being implemented by the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank.
70. In addition to regular project monitoring and evaluation, the CRICU, in collaboration with the PMU, will be responsible for compiling and reporting on the progress of PPCR programmatic indicators to the PPCR Sub-Committee of the Climate Investment Funds, consistent with the approved PPCR Monitoring Framework for Samoa. The proposed project will support this broader programmatic monitoring, as well as dissemination of lessons learned. 71. At the village level a member of the village CIM Plan Committee (these were established in each village during the earlier preparation of CIM Plans and will now operate within the Village Councils to facilitate the review, update and implementation of CIM Plans) will be allocated responsibility for supporting M&E at the village level and forwarding monitoring data to the PMU. For the ecological monitoring it is proposed that it is carried out at two levels: community/CSO-based and scientific. At the village level, community/CSO/school monitoring teams would carry out quarterly monitoring of sites in each village, or a representative number of villages in each district, and monitor the basic indicators concerned with water quality, changes in the reef substrate cover, the area of mangrove and coastal vegetation etc. They would also form a rapid assessment team after natural disasters or development activities to measure impacts on the marine and freshwater environment. 72. At a higher level scientific staff based in MNRE or related departments such as the Fisheries Division of MAF would carry out annual scientific monitoring of representative sites, collate climate data and also train the community teams in field monitoring. Where feasible this monitoring would be built into existing monitoring programs, such as the Community-Based Fisheries Management Plan.
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Role of Partners 73. Several multi-lateral and bi-lateral development agencies provide support to Samoa in disaster risk management and climate change adaptation. These activities are clearly relevant to the ECR project and the PMU based in MNRE together with the Steering Committee will need to ensure that there is good coordination. 74. UNDP, as mentioned previously, will be supporting the Adaptation Fund co-financed project as well as a GEF/LDCF project both of which are closely associated with the PPCR. The former will adapt a similar strategy and scope of work in updating and implementing CIM Plans while the latter will support strengthening the enabling environment for climate change adaptation and disaster risk management. Coordination arrangements are in place through MNRE. UNDP has also been implementing the Community Based Adaptation Program which is supported by GEF/LDCF and Australian Aid Prograam and aims to increase resilience of natural resources and livelihoods sensitive to climate change. The Adaptation in the Forestry Sector (Integrating Climate Change Risks in the Forestry Sector) also implemented by UNDP with support from GEF/LDCF, Australian Aid Program and JICA will integrate climate risks and resilience into lowland agro-forestry and upland forestry policies and strategies and demonstrate techniques for climate resilience. The Agriculture and Health Project (GEF-LDCF- Integrating Climate Change Risks in the Agriculture and Health Sectors) is improving the organization and technical capacity in the Samoa Meteorological Division to monitor climate change trends and provide timely climate risk and early warning information for extension workers and public health staff, as well as strengthen their capacity. 75. It will be important that there is significant sharing of knowledge among all of these activities and the ECR project. The PMU will need to seek opportunities for joint activities in order to avoid duplication and conflicting messages and to optimize use of the limited capacity in country.
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Annex 4: Operational Risk Assessment Framework (ORAF)
Samoa: Enhancing the Climate Resilience of Coastal Resources and Communities (P126596)
.
.
Project Stakeholder Risks
Stakeholder Risk Rating Low
Risk Description: Risk Management:
The participation of some communities & households in the project may be constrained by the reported perception among communities of “fatigue with surveys and plans” that have been done through various projects without the anticipated investment support being forthcoming .
This, although a reality, is not expected to be a problem because of the existing high levels of awareness among communities of the risks they face due to natural disasters and their desire to strengthen resilience. The pragmatic approach to be followed under the project whereby the Coastal Infrastructure Management Plans (CIMs) prepared under previous projects would provide the planning framework to enable a relatively rapid start-up of the project for “no regret” type activities, while further updating of the CIMs are undertaken. The participatory approach to the subproject design and implementation would help build “buy-in” from communities. Likewise the planned communications program should help overcome initial resistance to community participation. Implementation will also be closely coordinated with a very similar project being financed by the Adaptation Fund covering the remaining 25 Districts not included in this ECR project. The anticipated synergies between the PPCR and Adaptation Fund supported projects should further enhance uptake by communities.
Resp: Status: Stage: Recurrent: Due Date: Frequency:
Client Not Yet Due Implementation Yearly
Implementing Agency (IA) Risks (including Fiduciary Risks)
Capacity Rating Substantial
Risk Description:
Risk Management:
The design of the institutional arrangements for the project has specifically addressed
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Capacity is increasingly becoming a major constraint in implementing climate and disaster resilience projects as larger amounts of funding become available through multilateral and bilateral sources.
this issue. Nevertheless capacity issues are probably the main risk in implementing the project and hence the rating of substantial has been maintained. Capacity constraints stem from i) shortage of personnel; ii) concentration of effort on the limited resources of MNRE; iii) increasing amounts of funding coming from various sources for climate and disaster resilience activities; and v) different financial management, procurement and reporting requirements of various donors/ funding sources. The design of the institutional arrangements address each of these issues through both short term actions (hiring of consultants) and longer term sustainability requirements ( through training of local hire and formalization of positions). Specifically the project lays the foundation for a programmatic approach to climate and disaster resilience such that it provides a common framework for managing projects, FM arrangements, reporting etc. This would be done through a Project Management Unit that would accommodate /manage projects from a variety of funding sources. The design also provides for considerable operational synergies to be developed between projects/funding sources. Collectively these design aspects should considerably mitigate the capacity constraints.
Resp: Status: Stage: Recurrent: Due Date: Frequency:
Client Not Yet Due Implementation
Risk Management:
The project would expand the base of climate and disaster resilience implementation by drawing much more on other sector agencies, as well as MNRE, to implement the various subprojects in line with their respective mandates. Civil Society organizations would also be used to assist communities implement small subprojects. The project would, therefore, encourage a significant broadening of the capability and capacity to implement adaptation type sub- projects, while also helping to build climate change into sector agency programs as another dimension they should be taking into account in their sector planning. This would be supportive of public expenditure reforms being implemented by Government.
Resp: Status: Stage: Recurrent: Due Date: Frequency:
Client Not Yet Due Implementation
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Governance Rating Moderate
Risk Description: Risk Management:
The Steering Committee for the project may not function effectively and/or sector agencies who are members of the Steering Committee may not actively participate or support the project.
The project would use the same Steering Committee as for the first phase of the PPCR; an oversight instrument that has worked well to this point. Moreover, as part of public sector expenditure reforms being implemented by Government, there is a specific requirement that sector agencies should integrate climate change adaptation into their sector plans. This process is being monitored and assisted by MOF. Additionally, the institutional framework to be supported under the project provides an incentive for sector agencies to participate by providing a mechanism through which they can obtain incremental funds for climate adaptation. Previously most of such funds were “captured” by the MNRE. Therefore, to the extent that the design of the project seeks to build synergies between funds for climate and disaster resilience with those funds coming through regular sector agency budgets, the governance risks identified should be largely avoided.
Resp: Status: Stage: Recurrent: Due Date: Frequency:
Client Not Yet Due Implementation
Risk Management:
For procurement at the community level, the risk of corruption is considered moderate in light of good experiences to this point. A CDD procurement manual will be developed to govern community contracting and TA will be provided to strengthen procurement and financial management functions. CDD contracting would be for small grants costing less than approx. US$10,500 which would be made available to communities through well established procedures for managing small grants in Samoa. It is expected that less than 40% of adaptation expenditures would be of this nature. Likewise, to the extent that 60% of investment expenditures would be through sector agencies, all of which have experiences in implementing Bank assisted projects, corruption is not expected to be an issue based on past experience.
Resp: Status: Stage: Recurrent: Due Date: Frequency:
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Client Not Yet Due Implementation
Project Risks
Design Rating Substantial
Risk Description: Communities who are more accustomed to hard engineering approaches (mainly seawalls) may be less responsive to implementing a broader suite of measures including ecosystem based adaptation. Extreme weather events or geohazards such as tsunami, could damage the adaptation interventions introduced by the project with the focus shifting more to disaster.
Risk Management:
This will undoubtedly be an issue. The design of the project therefore provides for the CIM Plans to be updated through a consultative process similar to that used for their original preparation. Through this process communities will be sensitized to the different options available for addressing climate risks and will be better able to understand the benefits of these alternative solutions. CSOs will be trained in these approaches in order to work with communities in helping to sensitize them to the advantages of ecosystem approaches where feasible (e.g. mangrove planting), as an alternative to infrastructure such as seawalls.
Resp: Status: Stage: Recurrent: Due Date: Frequency:
Client Not Yet Due Implementation Monthly
Risk Management:
The risk of a cyclone (for example) during the project period is clearly quite high. While for a time after such an event the emphasis would shift to reconstruction type activities, such investments would for the most part be consistent with the types of subprojects being supported under the project. As such this would not impact significantly on the project’s design or implementation aspects. Moreover, the types of activities under the project are specifically designed to reduce vulnerability to such weather events.
Resp: Status: Stage: Recurrent: Due Date: Frequency:
Client Not Yet Due Implementation
Social and Environmental Rating Moderate
Risk Description: Risk Management:
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Minor social safeguard issues may be met on land acquisition for the implementation of the CIM Plans that may require land. The project is focused on the sound environmental management of coastal resources and so no adverse environmental impacts are anticipated.
Multistakeholder participation in the adoption of an existing Land Acquisition Framework, and monitoring of its use by the implementing agency. Environmental safeguards review. ESMF and LARF will provide sufficient guidance.
Resp: Status: Stage: Recurrent: Due Date: Frequency:
Client Not Yet Due Implementation Quarterly
Program and Donor Rating Moderate
Risk Description: Risk Management:
The increasing support for climate and disaster resilience type activities through bilateral and multilateral sources has created capacity constraints (see above). In such an environment there is an added risk of having a donor led approach to climate adaptation which could further exacerbate capacity problems and lack of coordination.
The institutional framework to be introduced and supported under the project specifically addresses this risk. A programmatic approach would be fostered through use of a “core Steering Committee” for climate and disaster resilience, although donors/multilateral agencies may include additional members as required. Additionally a Project Management Unit would be established through which all multilateral and bilateral support for climate and disaster resilience would be channeled. The PMU arrangements provide for building synergies between different fund sources. Such opportunities for synergies have already been discussed and built into the project design in regard to the Adaptation Fund and the anticipated support under the LDCF.
Resp: Status: Stage: Recurrent: Due Date: Frequency:
Client Not Yet Due Implementation Quarterly
Delivery Monitoring and Sustainability Rating Substantial
Risk Description: Risk Management:
M&E capacity is quite limited and the problems have been compounded by the increasing number of projects supporting climate and disaster resilience.
The design of the institutional framework includes the development of M&E capacity taking account of both the immediate severe capacity constraints and the longer term sustainability issues. While consultants would be used in the short term to build on the limited M&E capacity developed under earlier projects, the project also provides for local hire, government staff assignments and training, with the view to developing a permanent M&E capacity. Opportunities to build synergies with M&E required under the Adaptation Fund support for climate and disaster resilience have been incorporated
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into the project’s design. This aspect of the project will however require close attention during implementation.
Resp: Status: Stage: Recurrent: Due Date: Frequency:
Client Not Yet Due Implementation
Overall Risk
Overall Implementation Risk: Rating Substantial
Risk Description:
The risk rating is substantial because of the risks associated with capacity, design and sustainability which are key elements of the project. Practical mitigation measures have been identified and these should help to lower the risks but close monitoring will be required during implementation.
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Annex 5: Implementation Support Plan
COUNTRY: SAMOA
Enhancing the Climate Resilience of Coastal Resources and Communities
Strategy and Approach for Implementation Support 1. The strategy underpinning the institutional and implementation support being provided under the project has, in the first instance, been designed to accommodate the very limited capacity constraints in MNRE and the implementing agencies, especially when it comes to providing climate related services, which would be the focus of interventions under the project. The strategy has therefore focused on the key risks identified in the ORAF, which is limited capacity in government and design risks, and takes account of the country’s overall risk profile. At the outset, therefore, the approach integrated into the project design involves development of mechanisms to engage CSOs and in working with communities and to divide implementation among several entities. At the same time, the Bank team will provide consistent support during the duration of the project to help build capacity in MNRE for overall project management as well as in the specific skills required to implement climate resilience measures. They will also require much support on Bank processes. Thus, the strategy is built on the following: 2. Operational and Technical support: Drawing on its experience from implementing projects in Samoa and other Pacific Island Countries, the Bank will tailor its support to the project’s management to fit the environment of limited capacity worsened by the simultaneous implementation of other major donor funded projects. Thus more “hands-on” support may be required. Furthermore, with the Bank’s access to global knowledge, the team will provide technical support based on experiences from the Pacific and beyond particularly in specific areas such as: (i) the social dimensions of climate change; (ii) participatory approaches for community based natural resources management, including CBA; (iii) coastal resources management; and (iv) integrating downscaled climate data into community V&A assessments. 3. Procurement: Procurement support will include: (i) monitoring the proper implementation of the risk mitigating plan; (ii) providing training to the PMU; (iii) reviewing and clearing procurement plans; (iv) carrying out prior review and post review; and (v) monitoring procurement progress against the approved procurement plans. 4. Financial Management: The support plan for ensuring the smooth flow of funds consistent with sound financial management has been central to the design for the benefit of the project and also from an institutional strengthening perspective, given the central role of MNRE in the management of funds being provided for climate change adaptation and disaster risk management. The implementation support strategy will include: (i) assisting the client to incorporate financial management issues into the Operations Manual; (ii) approval of the terms of reference for any accounting and finance position; (iii) approval of the design of the interim unaudited financial statements; (iv) initial education and training of project accounting and finance staff on World Bank requirements, procedures and processes including Withdrawal Applications, acceptable financial management systems, financial reporting, audit, and eligible
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expenditures; (v) periodic Financial Management implementation support missions; and (vi) adhoc remote support as required. 5. Safeguards: Safeguards support to the project will be provided by Environment and Social Development Specialists, who will be part of the Bank implementation support team. The specialists will monitor compliance by the project and beneficiaries of the ESMF, including training of the PMU staff, Implementing Agencies and beneficiaries on the use of ESMF, CEP and LARF during project implementation. 6. Of particular importance to the strategy, Samoa’s institutional response to the impending risks and need for adaptation associated with climate change, must necessarily be programmatic given the large number of projects to be implemented. Accordingly, the implementation support plan would be as follows: Implementation Support Plan 7. Project Oversight and Technical Back-stopping: Day-to-day follow-up and support for the project would be provided by the Bank’s TTL assisted by operational support staff based in Sydney and Washington. Technical backstopping would also be available through the Bank’s regional based Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction team in Sydney. Their support would be especially important in helping the PMU and Implementing Agencies implement their climate change adaptation responsibilities. Technical specialists in coastal ecology, coastal engineering, GIS and Community Based Development will also support the project in implementing those activities. The project will be followed on a routine basis by procurement, financial management and safeguards specialists in the Sydney office, during their regular visits to the region. 8. Fiduciary inputs: Training will be provided by the Bank’s procurement and FM specialists before commencement of project activities, and as needed throughout project implementation. Additional training will also occur through regional (hub) level events. Supervision visits by procurement and FM specialists located in the Sydney office would be conducted at least every six months. 9. Safeguards: While the project’s social and environmental impacts are projected to be relatively small, to the extent inputs from environmental and social specialists are required, these would be provided from the specialists based in the region.
Time Focus Skills Needed Resource Estimate Partner Role First twelve
months Contracting of Tech.
Assistance for all components
Procurement of LiDAR
Development of tender docs for PDCs
Training in Financial management
Procurement
Financial Management
Technical Guidance/support
Technical support/engineer
TTL
4 sw
4sw
6 sw
6 sw
NA
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Team leadership implementation supervision coordination
6 sw
12-60 months Technical design and implementation
Procurement/
contracting
Financial management
M&E
Technical Guidance/support
Procurement
Financial
management
TTL project guidance
M&E Specialist
18 sw
4 sw
6 sw
24 sw
2 sw
NA
Skills Needed Number of Staff Weeks Number of Trips Comments Financial Management 10 2 per year Region Based Procurement 8 2 per year Region Based Social Development 4 4 total DC based to bring wider
intl. experience Coastal Ecologist 4 4 total DC Based to bring wider
intl. experience Coastal Engineer 5 5 total Region Based NRM 5 5 total Region Based DRM 12 6 total Region Based Structural Engineer 4 2 total Region Based Environment 2 2 total Region Based M&E 2 2 total Region Based TTL 30 2 per year Partners
Name Institution/Country RoleNA
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Annex 6: Economic and Financial Analysis
COUNTRY: SAMOA
Enhancing the Climate Resilience of Coastal Resources and Communities Economic and Financial Analysis
1. This Annex presents the results of the Economic and Financial Analysis of the Enhancing the Climate Resilience of Coastal Resources and Communities Project. There are three parts to the Economic analysis: (i) top down analysis focusing on the overall project cost relative to the aggregate level of avoided damages from climatic hazards such as cyclones; (ii) qualitative analysis that focuses on Component 1B providing sub-grants to implement priority climate resilience measures; and (iii) qualitative discussion of the remaining components of the analysis as well as the uncertainties in the economic analysis underlying any activity that is specifically focused on providing benefits in the distant future, as this project is designed to do. 2. The overall results of the economic analysis from the top down analysis are summarized in Table 1. The ERR of the overall project is 8.9% and is within the range of ERR for Bank projects of this type. They are based on valuations of avoided building, infrastructure and crop damages, emergency losses and the average number of lives saved from cyclones during the lifetime of the projects, assumed to be 25 years. This represents an underestimate of the benefits as the project provides additional benefits such as increased income, and reduced loss of coastal habitats which have not been quantified. There are also large spillover effects as the data and methods available from the prioritization process of the CIMs will contribute to the selection of improved projects in complementary projects as well. The full benefits of these activities are difficult to quantify separately, as they depend on the specific projects chosen under component 1b and is not done.
Table 1: Summary Results from the Top down and Bottom up approaches (percent and million US$)
Scenario IRR NPV 3% NPV 6% NPV10% NPV12%
Overall Project (top down approach) 8.92% $11.79 $4.19 ‐$1.04 ‐$2.50
3. In reviewing these results, it is important to remember that climate resilience provides many intangible benefits that are difficult to quantify. Some of the intangible benefits identified during the project preparation are year-round access for vulnerable communities to health facilities and schools; more stable crop production due to planting in highland and lowland areas; improved nutrition through increased dietary diversity; savings resulting from better climate information and crop planning; and savings on the cost of responding to possible future natural disasters. While techniques exist to derive proxy measures of benefits for some of them, they are often fraught with uncertainty. As a result the economic analysis for the most part is focused on estimating the direct and readily quantifiable/verifiable outcomes. This omission biases the benefits downwards making the project less favorable than it actually is. Further, the benefits that are included in the analysis have also been developed using conservative assumptions and
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have been rigorously tested through sensitivity analyses. Overall, the reported results provide a lower bound on the economic attractiveness of the project. Top Down Analysis 4. The top down analysis is designed to capture the overall economic viability of the project. It compares the aggregate cost of all components of the project against the aggregate expected benefits from the project. It does not attempt to directly link the costs of specific components of the project to specific identified benefits. As a result, it gets around the need to attribute the benefits of the project to specific components. For instance, reduced crop damage can result from of both investments in mangrove plantation (component 1B) and training and awareness raising (component 2A). Costs 5. The ECR proposes to invest about $14.6 million primarily from PPCR to support coastal communities in Samoa to become more resilient to climate variability and change. It consists of three components -- implementation of priority adaptation measures, strengthened climate information services, and institutional strengthening for climate and disaster resilience. The first two components are further disaggregated into sub-components. Table 2 shows the total investment costs of the project disaggregated by project component. About two thirds of the resources are to be directly allocated as sub-grants to communities and to line agencies. The other components of the project are designed to directly enhance the effectiveness/efficiency of component 1B, for example, through improved prioritization (component 1A), capacity (2A and 3) and targeting (2B). A large part of their benefits spillover to other projects, both current and future, enhancing their effectiveness as well. These large spillover effects make it difficult to fully quantify the benefits of these components.
Table 2: Project Costs by Component
Total (‘000 USD)
1A ‐ DISASTER RISK AND ADAPTATION OPTIONS 552.3 4.0%
1B ‐ IMPLEMENTATION OF SUB‐GRANTS 9,129.1 65.8%
2A ‐ CAPACITY UPGRADE CSOs 318.2 2.3%
2B ‐ KNOWLEDGE AND DATA PLATFORMS 1,180.0 8.5%
3 ‐ INSTITUTIONAL STRENGTHENING, COORDINATION, AND MONITORING
2,690.9 19.4%
13,870.5 100.0%
Contingencies 681.1
Total Cost 14,551.6
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6. The total investments are projected to occur over 5 years divided almost equally across the years (Table 3). A little over half of the costs are projected to be for civil works across the various components including sub-grants. In addition the economic analysis includes annual O&M costs of 10% to the cumulative total investment beginning year 2.
Table 3: Project Costs (‘000 USD) by Year and Procurement category
Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 4 Yr 5 Total
A. CIVIL WORKS
1. CIVIL WORKS 606.0 1,779.4 1,815.0 1,851.3 1,888.4 7,940.1
Subtotal 606.0 1,779.4 1,815.0 1,851.3 1,888.4 7,940.1
B. VEHICLES&BOATS
1. VEHICLES 45.9 46.8 ‐ ‐ ‐ 92.7
2. BOATS ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
Subtotal 45.9 46.8 ‐ ‐ ‐ 92.7
C. EQUIPMENT 13.8 2.3 ‐ ‐ ‐ 16.1
D. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE
1,808.8 676.2 689.7 167.6 21.9 3,364.2
E. TRAINING 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 4.8
F. SUB‐PROJECTS (COMMUNITY GRANTS)
121.2 309.1 315.2 321.5 328.0 1,395.0
G. INCREMENTAL OPERATING COSTS
258.0 345.1 373.5 388.3 373.7 1,738.6
H. SALARIES ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
2,854.6 3,159.9 3,194.4 2,729.7 2,612.9 14,551.6
Benefits 7. One of the main benefits of these investments is to make the beneficiaries more resilient to climatic shocks such as from cyclones. These benefits occur over time as reduced damages, losses and fatalities during future storms. Some of the adaptation measures to protect against cyclone damage, such as mangrove plantation for coastal protection, can also provide co-benefits in protecting against tsunamis. Similarly, catchment management often increases slope stability, thus reducing landslide occurrence following earthquakes. While the benefits analysis is primarily focused on avoided damages from cyclone risk, the co-benefits of protection against tsunamis are also included as a sensitivity analysis. 8. The benefits of the project are computed in four steps:
a. Determine the average annual damages, losses and fatalities from cyclones; b. Monetize lives lost to determine total damages from current hazards; c. Project future damages accounting for changes in the hazard and exposure; and d. Compute the expected benefits over the life of the project.
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9. Determine the average annual damages, losses and fatalities from cyclones: The Pacific Catastrophe Risk Assessment and Financing Initiative have developed the risk profile for Samoa posed by tropical cyclones, earthquakes and tsunamis. It was developed using a simulation model of potential storms and earthquakes that may affect Samoa in the future based on historical data. The model simulates more than 400,000 tropical cyclones and about 7.6 million earthquakes, grouped in 10,000 potential realizations of the next year’s activity in the entire Pacific Basin. The risk profile is derived from an estimation of the direct losses to buildings, infrastructure assets and major crops caused by all the simulated potential future events. The direct losses comprise the cost of repairing or replacing the damaged assets but do not include other losses such as contents losses, business interruption losses and losses to primary industries other than agriculture. The direct losses for tropical cyclones are caused by wind and flooding due to rain and storm surge, while losses for earthquakes are caused by ground shaking and tsunami inundation. The severity of losses for future catastrophes is estimated from the cost of repairing or rebuilding the damaged assets in all of the simulated potential future events.
10. The annual losses averaged over the many realizations of next-year activity are available at the district level separately for tropical cyclone and for earthquake and tsunamis (See Figure 7). The Average Annual Losses (AALs) from cyclones as well as the combination of all three hazards for Samoa and for the PPCR districts are summarized in Table 4. The baseline AALs from PCRAFI were scaled up to constant 2013$ for the economic analysis. They provide a
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lower bound on the expected annual losses for several reasons: (i) they are based on satellite imagery in the 2007/9 period and are based on an inventory of building and selected infrastructure and crops; (ii) they do not include recent construction and assets such as utility networks; and (iii) this underestimation can be confirmed through a comparison of the predicted PCRAFI losses with the actual damages and losses reported in the PDNA for cyclone Evan. The significance of this underestimation is explored through sensitivity analysis.
Table 4: Average Annual Losses from different hazards all Samoa and PPCR districts (million US$)
Hazards Entire Samoa PPCR districts*
Direct Losses Cyclone $6.9 $2.4
Emergency Losses
Cyclone $1.6 $0.6
Fatalities Cyclone 11 4
Direct Losses Cyclone and Earthquake, tsunami
$9.9 $3.0
Emergency Losses
Cyclone and Earthquake, tsunami
$2.3 $0.7
Fatalities Cyclone and Earthquake, tsunami
19 6
Source: PCRAFI * Note: The number of fatalities was only available at the country level. They have been scaled down from the national estimates in proportion to the total damages and losses in these districts. 11. Monetize lives lost to determine total damages from current hazards: For the base case, the damages from loss of life are estimated using the Human capital approach, annual working-age earnings of $12,000 over a 50 year working life discounted at 3%. This yields the present value of life time earnings of $308,757. These are the values used in a recent economic analysis of the Enhancing the Resilience of tourism-reliant communities to climate change risks in Samoa. Since, the monetization of human life is somewhat controversial and the assumptions seem to be on the high side, the value of statistical life was estimated by transferring values of willingness to pay for avoided loss of life from the other countries where these have been estimated. A range of values are estimated using an elasticity of 1 and 1.5 as recommended by a recent World Bank report (Cropper et. al 2009). This yields damage estimates of $190 to $632 thousand per life lost. The base case valuation has been done using the human capital approach while the WTP approach used for sensitivity analyses. 12. Project future damages accounting for changes in the hazard and exposure: Steps (a) and (b) provides the current level of damages, losses and fatalities. Future damages will be different from current damages for three reasons: (i) changes in the frequency and severity of the hazard; (ii) changes in the assets exposed; and (iii) changes in the population exposed. The escalation of losses due to each of these are estimated independently and applied to the current losses to obtain the expected future losses.
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13. Changes in Future climate hazard: PCRAFI has carried out additional simulations of its models to examine current and future tropical cyclone risk under climate change based on the outputs from 11 different Global Climate Models (GCMs).24 The simulations project a 25.4% increase in Average Annual Losses for Samoa by the end of the century. These increases are solely attributed to the increased hazard and not to changes in exposure. The base case of the analysis assumes that the AAL in Samoa rises gradually to the projected 25.4% increase by 2100. AAL for intermediate years is determined by interpolating between the current value and the expected end of century AAL resulting in an increase in AAL of around 6% by the end of lifetime of this project.
14. The base case assumes the total assets exposed to risk rises at the same rate as the expected real growth of the economy of 3% per year and that the population exposed to risk rises at the same rate as the projected population growth according to the UN. Sensitivity cases are presented to examine the relative contribution of these to the growth in damages and expected benefits.
15. The annual future damages is computed for the next 25 years by independently adjusting the current damages for changes in the hazard and changes in exposure resulting from economic growth and population growth.
16. Compute the expected benefits over the life of the project: The expected benefits of the project are the avoided future damages from the project. Once the project has been fully implemented, it is expected to reach 50% of the beneficiaries. For purposes of the economic analysis, the base case assumes that 50% of the damages are avoided. This would come about if the targeted beneficiaries are fully protected. It is more likely, however, that due to leakages, some non-targeted people also benefit from the adaptation measures but the adaptation measure does not fully protect the targeted beneficiaries. For example, if leakages result in providing benefits to an additional 25% of people beyond those targeted the adaptation measures need to only protect 80% of damages for all of the targeted and non-targeted beneficiaries. Sensitivity analysis is used to examine the significance of not meeting these targets.
Benefit-Cost Analysis 17. The total costs of the project as shown in Table 2 are compared to the sum of the avoided damage and losses and the value of lives saved in the Benefit Cost analysis for the top down analysis. For the base case the benefits consist of direct damages, emergency losses and the value of lives saved from cyclones in the PPCR districts escalated based on changes in future climate hazards and exposure due to economic and population growth. Lives are valued using the human capital approach. The project is expected to reduce damages by the targeted 50% once the full investment is in place in year six. During the initial years, benefits are scaled down in proportion to the cumulative investments that have been put in place. The analysis was carried out using 4 different discount factors 3,6,10 and 12. In the base case, the ERR of the project is 8.9% within the range of similar projects (See Table 5). This provides a lower bound
24 The models are from two generations of model experiments, CMIP3 and CMIP5.
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on the actual returns as the analysis only assesses the avoided damages to buildings, selected hard infrastructure assets and lost lives.
Table 5: Summary of results for Top down Analysis (IRR in percent, NPV in million US$)
Column1 Scenario IRR NPV 3% NPV 6% NPV 10% NPV 12%
Base case 8.92% $11.79 $4.19 ‐$1.04 ‐$2.50
Scope of Damages included
Exclude Emergency Losses 5.65% $4.856 ($0.464) ($3.960) ($4.873)
Add Direct Damages from Tsunami 13.30% $22.040 $11.131 $3.373 $1.108
Add Direct Damages from Tsunami & Emergency losses 17.06% $31.992 $17.802 $7.557 $4.507
Damage Calibration
Calibration ‐‐ Scope increased 10% 10.51% $15.477 $6.655 $0.505 ($1.245)
Calibration ‐‐ Scope increased 20% 12.02% $19.162 $9.125 $2.054 $0.013
Value of Lives Saved
Value of Saved lived not included 4.18% $2.18 ‐$2.43 ‐$5.34 ‐$6.04
WTP transferred elasticity 1.5 7.17% $8.10 $1.64 ‐$2.69 ‐$3.87
WTP transferred elasticity 1.0 13.43% $21.85 $11.11 $3.45 $1.20
Changes in Damages over time
Cyclone hazard constant 8.35% $10.287 $3.260 ($1.559) ($2.898)
Asset exposure constant 3.07% $0.098 ($3.058) ($5.115) ($5.634)
Population Exposure constant 8.64% $11.055 $3.724 ($1.308) ($2.708)
Hazard and Exposure constant 1.71% ($1.658) ($4.161) ($5.747) ($6.124)
Project reaches fewer beneficiaries
90% of targeted beneficiaries reached 5.07% $3.820 ($1.238) ($4.508) ($5.342)
75 % of targeted beneficiaries reached 3.10% $0.177 ($3.644) ($5.990) ($6.535)
Annual O&M
0% of cumulative investments 18.62% $33.117 $19.026 $8.698 $5.575
5% of cumulative investments 13.84% $22.455 $11.606 $3.827 $1.536
18. The analysis was redone under alternative assumptions to examine the robustness of the results (See Table 5). As would be expected the exclusion of indirect Emergency losses decreases the ERR to about 5.7%. If the adaptation measures also fully protect against all damages from earthquakes and tsunamis, the ERRs nearly double to 13.3%. As mentioned at the outset, while some of the proposed measures provide co-benefits in protecting against tsunamis and floods, other measures contribute little. On the other hand, in some cases, the adaptation measure itself could increase the assets exposed to tsunami risk and increase losses. As tsunami waves can be more powerful and penetrate further inland, coastal protection measures appropriate for storm surge/wave can, in the worst cases, increase tsunami damages.
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19. The value of lives saved accounts for 20 to 25% of the total benefits in the base case. If lives saved are not included in the benefits analysis, the ERR drops to 4.2% while the use of the WTP approach increases the ERR to 7 to 13%. So the project seems economically viable just based on the avoided damages and losses.
20. Maintaining hazard and exposure levels at current levels instead of escalating them reduces ERR to 1.7%, significant decline from the base case. Most of the drop results from the changes in asset exposure. Changes in the severity of the hazard and increases in the population exposure do not have much of an impact on the ERRs. Partly this results from the fact that an end of century increase in AAL of 25.4% translates only to about a 6% increase in AAL at the end of the life of the project of 25 year. Likewise the population of Samoa is projected to increase at a rate of around 0.65 percent annually, or a cumulative increase of about 16%. In contrast, rising incomes is expected to result in a doubling of asset exposure by the end of project life.
21. Failure to achieve targets of reaching 50% of beneficiaries has a significant effect on the ERR. For instance, if only 90% of the target is reached (or coverage is for only 45% of damages and losses) in the PPCR districts the ERR declines to 5.1%. These results indicate the necessity of ensuring that program targets are substantially met, for instance, through better targeting in the prioritization process or through better monitoring.
22. The economic analysis provision for annual O&M costs of 10% of the total amount invested. The ERR of the project could be increased by half, if O&M costs could be reduced by half without affecting investment quality and results. Qualitative Analysis of Component 1B 23. Around 65% of the total project costs are to provide grants to communities and constitute the primary rationale for the ECR, with grants ranging in size from $22,720 to $222,720. These projects are expected to provide direct and measurable improvements in resilience. This component will support projects that have been identified and prioritized by communities for inclusion in their updated CIMs. The Project Operations Manual includes provisions that require all projects included in the updated CIM plan to be economically viable, based on a simplified cost benefit analysis. Since the specific projects to be supported are not known a priori and the project selection criteria include an economic analysis, a separate analysis of these projects has not been carried out. 24. The types of project that might be supported can be observed from the CIMs that were drafted in the past. They include: coastal plantation, mangrove restoration and rehabilitation, upland plantation, small river dredging activities, water storage tanks, and the relocation of small structures. While larger projects such as bridges and road construction are also included in the CIMs, they would be too expensive to support through these grants. International experience has shown many of the soft infrastructure activities that were included in prior CIMs are effective in increasing climate resilience. For instance, mangroves can serve as buffer zones, reducing wave strength, water velocity and wind strength of tropical cyclones. In addition, mangrove-planting
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programs are scalable and provide many co-benefits. Planting mangroves in their native habitat restores coastal biodiversity (including fish and shellfish production), enhances water quality, and can protect homes, agriculture, and livestock from flooding. Qualitative Discussion
25. Other Benefits of Adaptation: Most of the discussion in the top down analysis focused on the benefits of adaptive measures in terms of avoided damages to people, buildings and infrastructure from climate events. Many of the other economic benefits of adaptation measures are either intangible or difficult to quantify (e.g. the gains to biodiversity). For instance, upland forest plantation directly protect against wind and rain damage resulting from cyclones. In addition, they also provide important co-benefits such as reduced soil erosion or more stable crop production. Adaptation measures can also reduce the losses associated with slow onset impacts of climate change. For instance, coastal plantation can be used to reduce saltwater intrusion in water reserves, reduce loss of coastal habitats, and increase coastal fisheries. Valuing such co-benefits would also produce a higher ERR. 26. Allocative efficiency: The project provides a mechanism to finance sub-projects that are proposed by and implemented on behalf of the beneficiaries. Global experience indicates that devolving subproject selection to the community level results in more effective project designs and more efficiently allocated projects within the community. While such a mechanism increases flexibility for the beneficiaries, it does not necessarily yield the most climate resilience. Doing so requires aligning the interest of the local community with increasing climate resilience. Raising the awareness of communities about climate resilience is one way to bring this about. Successful campaigns also have large spillover effects as communities proactively begin to integrate climate resilience into other activities. Financial Analysis 27. The project is not designed as an income-generating project and a separate analysis of the private financial returns to project investments was not undertaken. The fiscal impact of this project is small but significant. The project is 100% grant financed accounting for about 1.9% of GDP or about 9% of current Government expenditures. The key issues arising from this infusion of resources is the absorptive capacity of the Government. The project has already been examined as part of the implementation plan support. Beyond the initial period, the project does incur annual O&M costs of about $1.45 million. These are expected to be financed through a Multi-donor Trust Fund that the Government is setting to support such activities. Conclusions
28. Taken together, the economic and financial analysis show how the project will contribute to improved climate resilience in important and sustainable ways. Using conservative assumptions, the base result of the top down analysis shows that ERRs of around 9% can be realized just through the protection of population and assets from the adverse effects of tropical cyclones. The results can be improved through activities that provide additional benefits such as increased tourism revenues or the increased fish or wood production as plantations are
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sustainably managed. The analysis shows that the project faces a number of risks that are important to mitigation in project design. The first is to ensure that the sub-grants provided are targeted to areas of greatest need and distributed fairly to ensure that they meet the project target of reaching 50% of the population and exposed assets. Another important risk is that the benefits of individual sub-grants may be difficult to sustain once the investment phase of the project is completed. Strategies to minimize this risk include the creation of a Trust Fund to support O&M activities. Another approach is to keep the design of sub-projects simple.
Mt. FitoMt. Fito(1,115 m) (1,115 m)
ATUAATUA
FA'ASALELE'AGAFA'ASALELE'AGA
GAGA'EMAUGAGAGA'EMAUGA
GAGA’IFOMAUGAGAGA’IFOMAUGA
PALAULIPALAULI
PALA
ULI
PALA
ULI
SATUPA'ITEASATUPA'ITEA
TUAMASAGATUAMASAGA
VAISIGANOVAISIGANO
MaotaMaotaFa'a'alaFa'a'ala
Falealupo Falealupo
PapaPapa
SataoautaSataoauta
Si'umuSi'umu
A'ANAA'ANAMulifanua
Falelatai
Fale'ula
Mauga
A'opo
Pu'apu'a
Faga
Safotulafai
SalelologaMaota
Tafua
Fa'a'ala
Taga
Taga
Tufutafoe
Falealupo
Papa
Sala'ilua
Samata
Asau
FagamaloSafotu
Aleisa
Sataoauta
Si'umuPoutasi
Lotofaga Lalomanu
Falefa
Uafato
Lauli'iSolosolo
Ti'avea
SamusuMatautu
Falease'ela
Samatau
Leulumoega
Sale'imoa
APIA
A'ANAAIGA-I-LE-TAI
ATUA
FA'ASALELE'AGA
GAGA'EMAUGA
GAGA’IFOMAUGA
GAGA'EMAUGA
GAGA'EMAUGA
PALAULI
PALA
ULI
SATUPA'ITEA
SATUPA'ITEA
TUAMASAGA
VA'A-O-FONOTI
VA'A-O-FONOTI
VAISIGANO
Apolima S
trait
S O U T H P A C I F I C O C E A N Tu a s i v i R i d g e
S a v a i ' i
U p o l uApolima
Nu'ulua
FanuatapuNamu'a
Nu'utele
Manono
Mt. Silisili(1,857 m)
Mt. Fito(1,115 m)
172°30'W
172°00'W
172°30'W 172°00'W 172°30'W
13°30'S
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13°30'S
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SAMOA
0 5 10
0 5 10 15 Miles
15 Kilometers IBRD 40339
SEPTEMBER 2013
SAMOAENHANCING THE CLIMATE RESILIENCE
OF COASTAL RESOURCES AND COMMUNITIESPROJECT AREAS:
DISTRICTS INCLUDED IN THE PROJECT
ADAPTATION FUND
CITIES AND TOWNS
NATIONAL CAPITAL
RIVERS
MAIN ROADS
SUB-DISTRICT BOUNDARIES
DISTRICT BOUNDARIES
INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARIES
This map was produced by the Map Design Unit of The World Bank.The boundaries, colors, denominations and any other informationshown on this map do not imply, on the part of The World BankGroup, any judgment on the legal status of any territory, or anyendorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.
GSDPMMap Design Unit