the worldwide battery market 2011-2025

Christophe PILLOT [email protected]

+33(0)1 4778 4600

The worldwide battery

market 2011-2025

Director, AVICENNE ENERGY

Christophe PILLOT BATTERIES 2012

October 24-26, 2012

Nice, FRANCE Presentation Outline • The rechargeable battery market in 2011 • The Li-ion battery value chain • Li-ion battery material market • Forecasts & conclusions

Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

The worldwide Battery market 2011-2025

BATTERIES 2012 October 24-26, 2012

Nice, FRANCE

SPONSORS

2


[email protected]



Nice, FRANCE

80 SPEAKERS 24th october

Keynotes

AVICENNE

HP

TOYOTA

SB LIMOTIVE

BAR ILAN UNIV.

GTAI

J. PETERSEN

R&D TOYOTA FRAUNHOFER INST. US DOE R. BRODD IFP CEA SHMUEL DE-LEON SWEL

Portable TI INTEL ST ERICSSON CALL2RECYCLE

Battery Managmt. CHE EV INTERTEK RWTH AACHEN HEL LITHIUM BALANCE

3

25th october

Car Makers FORD PSA RENAULT DAIMLER TOSHIBA

Raw Mat. UMICORE PRAYON BASF CLARIANT TODA KOGYO QINGDAO

Manu-facturing MEGTEC POLYTYPE EIRICH SOVEMA

Raw Mat. DOW DUPONT DREAM WEAVER

Manu-facturing KROENERT PEC SCHENK

Raw Mat. FMC HITACHI ARKEMA JSR ENTEGRIS

Future ROLANDBERGER ELEMENT ENERGY MANZ TUBINGEN BUHLER

26th october

Safety SAE CELGARD MIJOBIL A&D

Battery NATUREO FINANCES GS YUASA SAFT LECLANCHE

Safety ETTEPLAN INERIS RECHARGE EUROBAT

Battery BASF-OVONIC POWERGENIX IKERLAN ILZRO-ALABC

Automotive LG CHEM

Energy Storage A123 ALTAIRNANO EDF IMTECH


[email protected]



Nice, FRANCE

AVICENNE PROFILE

Creation: 1992

Headquarter: Paris

Liaison Office: Japan, USA

AVICENNE Energy Director: Christophe Pillot

4 consultants in Paris

Information for Growth - Powering your company’s market strategy

with in-depth research

The Rechargeable Battery market

21st Edition

Customized

survey

4


[email protected]



Nice, FRANCE

METHODOLOGY: EXTENSIVE FIELD RESEARCH

TO RETRIEVE & CROSS CHECK INFORMATION

Conferences & Exhibitions

Top management contacts network > 17 000 contacts

In Depth analysis Of applications Cross Check Analysis

Battery Makers

Battery Users,

OEM

Raw materials suppliers

Environment & recycling

Safety

Substitution technologies:

SuperCap, Fuel cells

5

http://www.batteryjapan.jp/en/Top/

http://www.thebatteryshow.com/index.php


[email protected]



Nice, FRANCE

MORE THAN 180 REFERENCES

WORLDWIDE A123 AIR LIQUIDE AIR PRODUCT AHLSTROM ALCATEL AMPEREX (ATL) APPLIED MATERIALS AROS SECURITIES ARC ASHLAND ATOFINA - ARKEMA AT KEARNEY AXEON BAIN BASF BATTERY R&D ASSOCIATION OF KOREA B&D BHP BILLITON BRAND LICENCING PARNERS (BLP) BOURNS BOSCH BUHLER GMBH BYD CAP X CATELLA CARBONE LORRAINE CARLYLE CATELLA CATERPILLAR INC. CDN COBALT CEA/LITEN CELGARD CHEMETALL CHEMISHE FABRIK BUDENHEIM CIBA CIAPS CHINA COGEMA CONOCO PHILIPS CRU GROUP CSC CHALLENGE STRATEGY CHANGE DCN DELTA DGA

DIALOG SEMICONDUCTOR DOW CHEMICAL DOW CORNING DUPONT DURACELL EDF ELECTRO ENERGY ENER 1 ENERGIZER EOLITE EPCOS OHG ERAMET ETC AB FACOM FALCON BRIDGE FAIRSHILD SEMICONDUCTOR FAMEART FIST FLORIDIENNE DE CHIMIE FMC FORTU POWER CELL FRANCE TELECOM FULTON INNOVATION GAIA GIL IMPORT BATTERIES LTD. GS MELCOTEC HC STARCK (BAYER) HILTI HITACHI MAXELL HOLLINGSWORTH & VOSE CIE HONEYWELL HPL (HIGH POWER LITHIUM) HUTCHINSON IER IGL EXPORT. INTERNATIONAL COMPONENT CORP. INTERNATIONAL RECTIFIER INTEK INTEL INTERSIL INCO ITRI ITS

JBC JETRO JOHNSON CONTROLS KODAK KRUGER LAZARD LECLANCHÉ LEGRAND LG CHEMICAL LION CELLS LITTLE FUSE LILIPUCIAN LYNAS CORP MATSUSHITA MICROSOFT MTI MICRO FUEL CELLS MOLTECH MOLYCORP MOMENTIVE MOTOROLA MUNSTER UNIVERSITY NANOCYL NCCP - RUSSIA NITECH NKKPC NORILSK NICKEL NOVALED NTK POWERDEX OMG INC PANASONIC PHILIPS PHOTON PK & WISE POWER GENIX PRAYON PRISMARK PSA RAYOVAC RECHARGE RENAULT RHODIA ROLAND BERGER SAFT

SAGENTIA SAINT GOBAIN SAKTI SAMSUNG SDI SANIK SCHRODER VENTURE SCOTENT ENTREPRISE SFPZ SHENZHEN HIGH POWER TECHNOLOGY SCHOTT AG SKC SVE - DASSAULT SOLVAY SONY STIBAT STORCK STRATEGY ANALYSIS TERRAROSSA CAPITAL TIGER GLOBAL TODA KOGYO TOTAL TOTAL WIRELESS SOLUTION TOYO TOYOTA TYCO UMICORE UNIROSS URALELEMENT US NAVY VARTA VOLTRACK WARBURGPINCUS WORLD INDUSTRIAL INFORMATION CENTER WR GRACE & CIE YASLAMEN ZEBRA ZPOWER

6


[email protected]



Nice, FRANCE

AVICENNE ENERGY: RENOWNED TO

HAVE REALISTIC FORECASTS

IIT 2007

IIT 2008

IIT 2009

IIT 2010

REALITY 0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

2008 2009 2010 2011

Mill

ion

HEV

po

we

red

by

LIB

HEV powered by Lithium ion battery

forecasts from 2008 to 2011

EV sold, in million units, worldwide,

2010 - 2020

IIT (March 2010)

AAB

Deutsche Bank

Roland Berger

AVICENNE

IIT (March 2011)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2010 2015 2020

Nu

mb

er o

f EV

so

ld w

orl

dw

ide

( M

illio

n)

Source : International Battery Conference, Fort Lauderdale 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 & 2011

AVICENNE 2007-2011

7


[email protected]



Nice, FRANCE

OUTLINE

THE RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET IN 2011/2012

LIB VALUE CHAIN

LIB RAW MATERIAL MARKET

2020 & 2025 FORECASTS

CONCLUSIONS

8


[email protected]



Nice, FRANCE

9

THE BATTERY MARKET IS REALLY

DYNAMIC

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2000 2011

Mill

ion

Un

its

/ ye

ar

Cellular Phones sold per Year (Million)

Li-ion

NiMH

211 M Portable

PCs

65 M Tablets

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2000 2011

Mill

ion

Un

its/

Ye

ar

Portable PC sold per Year (Million)

Li-ion

NiMH

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

2000 2011

Ton

s o

f ca

tho

de

/ Y

ear

Tons of Li-ion Cathode per year

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

2000 2011

$/W

h

Li-ion 18650 cell price ($/Wh)


[email protected]



Nice, FRANCE

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

450 000

1990 2000 2010

MW

h

Others (Flow battery, NAS, …)

Li-ion

NiMH

NiCD

Lead Acid

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

1990 2000 2010

MW

h

THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET

1990-2010

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

1990 2000 2010

MW

h

Others (Flow battery, NAS, …)

Li-ion

NiMH

NiCD

Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments

Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market (90% market share)

10

Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments


[email protected]



Nice, FRANCE

LI-ION IN 2011

MAIN APPLICATIONS: CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK

>4 200 M cells – 28 000 MWh

9 700 M$

CAGR 2006/2011

+21% per year in Volume

+13% per year in value

11

-

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

M W

h

Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2011

Cellular Phones Portable PCs Others

-

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 M

Wh

Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2011

Tablets Power Tools Camcorders

Digital Camera Video Games MP3

Toys Auto Household devices

E-bikes Others


[email protected]



Nice, FRANCE

LI-ION IN 2011

MAIN APPLICATIONS: CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK

> 4 200M cells – 28 000 MWh

9 700 M$

CAGR 2006/2011

+21% per year in Volume

+13% per year in value

12

-

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

M $

Li-ion Battery sales, M$, Worldwide, 2000-2011

Cellular Phones Portable PCs Others

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 M

$

Li-ion Battery sales, M$, Worldwide, 2000-2011

Automotives Tablets Power tools Camcorders Digital camera MP3 Games E-Bikes Others


[email protected]



Nice, FRANCE

LI-ION VALUE CHAIN

13

CATHODE SUPPLIERS

63 OOO T in 2011

Revenues: 1,8 B$

CAGR 06/11: +13%

ANODE SUPPLIERS

32 200 T

Revenues: 0,55 B$

CAGR 06/11: 9%

ELECTROLYTE

SUPPLIERS

21 000 T

Revenues: 0,4 B$

CAGR 06/11: 17%

SEPARATOR SUPPLIERS

440 M m²

Revenues: 0,8 B$

CAGR 06/11: 15%

CELL

MANUFACTURE

RS

Revenues:

9 B$

Gross margin:

<10%

ANCILLARY

Revenues: 0,5 B$

PACK

MANUFACTURE

RS

Revenues:

11 B$

Gross margin:

<10%

BINDER SUPPLIERS

4 800 Tons

Revenues: 0,15 B$

CAGR 06/11: 12%


[email protected]



Nice, FRANCE

CATHODE ACTIVE MATERIALS NEEDS

BY CHEMISTRY

-

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

2

01

0

20

11

Ton

s

LFP

LMO

NCA

NMC

LCO

Cathode active materials for LIB

in Tons, 2000-2011

Cathode active materials for LIB,

% of volume, 2011

14

LiCoO2 43%

NMC 32%

NCA 6%

LMO 11%

LFP 8%


[email protected]



Nice, FRANCE

CATHODE ACTIVE MATERIAL

FORECASTS 2000-2020

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Ton

s

LFP

LMO

NCA

NMC

LCO

Cathode active materials 2000-

2020 - Tons

Cathode active materials in

2011: 63 000 Tons

15

ASSUMPTIONS:

Portable devices: 2010-2020: +11% per year in volume

HEV 3,7 M HEV/year in 2020 35% LIB

P-HEV 0,4 M P-HEV/year in 2020 100% LIB

EV 1M EV/year in 2020 100% LIB

LCO 43%

NMC 32%

NCA 6%

LMO 11%

LFP 8%

Cathode active materials in

2020: 250 000 Tons

LCO 20%

NMC 40%

NCA 7%

LMO 19%

LFP 14%


[email protected]



Nice, FRANCE

ANODE FOR LIB IN 2011

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

SANYO

SONY

PANASONIC

SDI

LGC

BYD

Lishen

Maxell

ATL

BAK

A123

Others

ARTIFICIAL MCMB NATURAL

Amorphous METAL

16

Natural graphite is more & more used

Note:

MCMB: Mesocarbon Microbeads

Source: Hitachi Chemical

Natural Graphite

59%

Artificial Graphite

30%

MCMB 8%

Amorphous 2%

Si or Sn Type 1%

Carbon for LIB anodes by type (2011)


[email protected]



Nice, FRANCE

LIB SEPARATOR MARKET 2011

LIB separator market, M$,

CAGR 2001/2011: +19%

LIB Separator supplier, market

share in 2011

17

Others: TDK/Nitto Denko, Foshan Jinhui Hi-Tech, Shenzhen Senior Technology Material, Xinxiang Green next Energy, Dupont,…

ASAHI 25%

TORAY-TONEN

21% SUMITOMO 1% ENTEK

3%

SK 12%

CELGARD 26%

UBE 7%

Others 5%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

M$


[email protected]



Nice, FRANCE

ELECTROLYTE SUPPLIERS/CUSTOMERS

21 200 TONS IN 2011

LIB electrolyte market, Tons,

CAGR 2001/2011: +19%

LIB electrolyte supplier, market

share in 2011

18

Ube 11%

Mitsubishi 24%

In-House 4%

Tomiyama 3%

PANAX-ETEC 21%

Zhangjiagang Guotai-

Huarong 19%

Others 18%

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

Ton

s

Cellular Portable PC Tablets

Power tools Auto Others


[email protected]



Nice, FRANCE

TIME TO MARKET FOR NEW MATERIALS

IN LIB INDUSTRY

The research and development in this industry is very long and time consuming.

Time to market to commercialize a new material is long. Remember that the first Li-ion battery was launch by Sony in 1991 with LCO cathode, graphite, LiPF6 electrolyte & polyolefin membrane. It was 20 years ago.

LTO was invented by Matsushita in 1993 (19 years ago)

Lithium iron phosphate was invented in 1995 (15 years ago).

So, it take between 10 & 20 years to commercialized a new material in the battery industry.

19


[email protected]



Nice, FRANCE

BATTERY MARKET FORECASTS

2011-2025

Portable PCs, net-book

Cellular Phones, Smartphones

Tablets

Camcorders

Cordless Tools, Gardening tools

Digital Camera

Games, MP3

Cordless Phones

Shavers, Toothbrush,

RC Cars

E-bikes

Security lighting

Vehicles: HEV, P-HEV, EV

Energy Storage

Others

Applications covered Parameters analysis

20

Main segment trends

Power need trends (volume, weight, capacity, running time)

Penetration rate for each Chemistry, each form factor

2011 -2020 Forecasts

OEM strategies and positions

Main drivers & limiters


[email protected]



Nice, FRANCE

21

PORTABLE ELECTRONIC DEVICE

FORECASTS 2011-2020

-

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

OTHERS

INDIA

ASIA

CHINA

JAPAN

EUROPE

USA

Cellular phone demand (M Units)

CAGR 2010-2020: +6%

Cellular Phone market Drivers

Emergent market

Renewal ratio increase

Smartphone penetration increase

LIB cells for cellular phone

trends

Pouch cell ratio increase

Increase of Thickness

Increase of >1400 mAh capacity

LIB cells demand 2010-2020

Polymer penetration: 16% -> 33%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

Pouch

Prismatic


[email protected]



Nice, FRANCE

22

PORTABLE ELECTRONIC DEVICES

FORECASTS 2011-2020

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

Emerging

Mature

Portable PC demand (M Units)

2010-2020 CAGR: +10%

Portable PC market trends

Mature market stable or decreasing

Growth driven by Emerging market

Ultrabook is increasing (20(1) to 60% in 2013(2))

ASP decreasing (<499$ Portable PCs increase from 25% in 2010 to 33% in 2012

(1) Samsung & AVICENNE (2) Intel Source: IDC, Gartner, AVICENNE Energy

LIB cells for portable PC trends

Thinner cells

Pouch cells penetration increasing from 7% in 2010 to 23% in 2020

> 2800 mAh for Premium/corporate

2.2 Ah for consumer, emerging market

LIB cell demand 2010-2020

Polymer penetration: 7% -> 23%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

Pouch

Prismatic

Cylindrical


[email protected]



Nice, FRANCE

2025 LIB FORECASTS

EXCEPT AUTOMOBILE

-

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

140 000

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

15

20

20

20

25

MW

h

Others

E-bikes

Household devices

Toys

MP3

Video Games

Digital Camera

Camcorders

Cordless Phones

Power Tools

Tablets

Portable PCs

Cellular Phones

2000-2025 LIB market, MWh, by

application (except Auto)

2000-2025 LIB market, M cells,

by form factor (Except Auto)

23

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

M c

ells

/ye

ar

Li-ion Cyl Li-ion Pr

Laminates IIT - March 2012 (1)

(1) Source: Battery Japan 2012 BJ-1 conference – Slide p 10


[email protected]



Nice, FRANCE

LONG TERM HEV FORECAST

FROM 3 TO 8 M HEV IN 2020

0,9

1,7

3,7

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2011 2015 2020

Mill

ion

AVICENNE (Feb 2012)

AVICENNE (Oct 2009)

AABC (2011)

IIT (March 2011)

Credit Suisse

Deutsche Bank (Nov 2009)

Roland Berger (Mini August 2011)

Nomura (March 2009)

24

AVICENNE ENERGY FORECASTS ARE REALISTIC

COMPARE TO OTHER ANALYSTS

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Compilation, February 2012


[email protected]



Nice, FRANCE

LI-ION PENETRATION IN VARIOUS

DEVICES: AVICENNE & OTHER ANALYSTS FORECAST

25

Li-ion penetration in electronic

devices & HEV

(1)AVICENNE HEV Forecasts, march 09, Relevant scenario

(2)AVICENNE HEV Forecasts, march 09, Li-ion Optimistic scenario

(3)IIT, TAKESHITA, March 08, THE 25th INTERNATIONAL BATTERY SEMINAR & EXHIBIT, Slide 8 & March 2009, 26th Battery Seminar,

(4)AAB, Menahem ANDERMAN, Ph.D, Tampa, Florida, May 2009

HEV powered by LIB

forecasts from 2008 to 2011

IIT 2007

IIT 2008

IIT 2009

IIT 2010

AVICENNE 2007

REALITY 0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

2008 2009 2010 2011 M

illio

n H

EV p

ow

ere

d b

y LI

B

Source : International Battery Conference, Fort Lauderdale 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 & 2011

Cellular Phones

(to=1994)

Portable PCs (to=1994)

Power Tools (to=2004)

HEV Avicenne (to=2010)

HEV Avicenne 2 (to=2010)

HEV IIT (to=2009)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Li-i

on

pen

etra

tio

n in

ele

ctro

nic

de

vice

s &

HEV


[email protected]



Nice, FRANCE

LIB BUSINESS

RECALL SLASH BATTERY PROFIT

26

More & more incidents & accidents

All the battery makers and the OEM are concerned

Recall cost impact drastically the battery business and the profitability

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

Op

era

tin

g p

rofi

t/R

eve

nu

e

RECALL SLASH BATTERY PROFIT

Sanyo

MBI

BYD

SGS

Sony

NEC

Maxell

LGC

SDI

Average


[email protected]



Nice, FRANCE

27

LIB MANUFACTURING INVESTMENTS

2009-2015

10-12 B$ WORLDWIDE

>50 GWh in 2015

A123 Michigan Plant - Photo courtesy of A123 Systems

Liotech Plant, Novosibirsk – 1,5 GWh production capacity 0 500 1000 1500

PANASONIC NISSAN Motor US

Sony BYD

LG Chem JCI

A123 Sanyo Ener1

Nissan-Renault (Fr) Dow Kokam (KD ABG MI)

GS YUASA SB Limotive

Hitachi Vehicle Energy Lithium Energy Japan Rusnano-Thunder Sky

LG Chem - Compact … Nissan - Renault (UK)

Toshiba Blue Energy

Nissan-Renault (Port) Lishen

BAK SAFT US

SAFT Hitachi Vehicle Energy

AESC Japon NEC Tokin (Electrodes)

Mitsubishi H.I. SK Energy

Panasonic EV LiTec GmbH

M$

Total Investment (M$) made for LIB manufacturing

Average Investments: 250 $ / kWh


[email protected]



Nice, FRANCE

LIB BATTERY COST

Raw material cost (Co, Mn, Ni, Al, Cu, …)

Anode, cathode, Electrolyte , separator, binders, Cu & Al foil, etc… cost structure :

CAPEX,

labor cost,

R&D

Marketing, Adm, Overhead, margin)

Raw material needs / mAh

Electrode process Yield

Assembly Process Yield

Cell manufacturing cost

Module manufacturing cost

Pack assembly cost

…

Costs analysis Battery price in 2011

$/kWh

28

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

LIB 18650

cell

LIB EV Cell

LIB pack for EV

LIB HEV cell

LIB pack for HEV


[email protected]



Nice, FRANCE

LI-ION BATTERY COST

2011-2020

LIB cell average cost

(EV design ; NMC cathode)

LI-ION BATTERY PACK COST

FOR EV

29

* For Production > 100 000 packs/year

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2011 2015 2020

$ /

kW

h

Margin

Overheads

Sales & Adm

R&D

Energy, utilities

Direct labor

Depreciation

Others

Separator

Electrolyte

Anode cost

Cathode cost 0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Cel

l

Pac

k

Cel

l

Pac

k

Cel

l

Pac

k

$ /

kW

h

Pack Cost

Cell Manufacturing

Other Materials

Electrolyte

Separator

Anode

Cathode 2015* 2020* 2011*


[email protected]



Nice, FRANCE

EV FORECASTS

2011-2020

EV sold, in million units,

worldwide, 2010 - 2020

EV impact on the LIB & raw

material market is HUGE

30

IIT, March 2011 Fort Lauderdale

IIT, March 2010 Fort Lauderdale

Deutsche Bank , Electric Cars: Plugged In 2 – Nov 2009

Roland BERGER, Oct 2011, Batteries 2011 Cannes

AAB, AABC Europe, Mainz, June 2011

IIT (March 2010)

AAB

Deutsche Bank

Roland Berger

AVICENNE

IIT (March 2011)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2010 2015 2020

Nu

mb

er o

f EV

so

ld w

orl

dw

ide

( M

illio

n)

4

50

45

400

1000

10000

25000

1 10 100 1 000 10 000 100 000

Mobile Phone

Portable PC

Power Tools

E-bikes

HEV

P-HEV

EV

Average Wh per device


[email protected]



Nice, FRANCE

TOTAL BATTERY DEMAND

2011-2020

EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery

needs (M Wh) 2005 – 2020

Total battery demand (MWh)

2000 – 2025

31

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

200000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 M

Wh

NiCd NiMH except Auto LIB except Auto

NiMH for HEV LIB for HEV LIB for P-HEV

LIB for EV

-

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

2005 2010 2015 2020

M W

h

NiMH for HEV LIB for HEV

LIB for P-HEV LIB for EV


[email protected]



Nice, FRANCE

HEV, P-HEV AND EV REALITY OF THE MARKET WILL

BOOST MICRO HYBRID AND ADVANCED LEAD ACID

BATTERIES

32

Stand

ard

Lead acid

Batteries

2010 2015 2020 AFTER

Li-ion

batteries

NiM

H b

atte

ries

STANDARD CAR

88.5% EV

P-HEV

FULL

HEV

1%

MILD

HEV

0.5%

MICRO

HYBRIDS

10%

Ad

vanced

Lead acid

(+ EDLC

)

NiM

H

STANDARD CAR

54%

MICRO HYBRID

40%

EV

P-HEV

2%

FULL

HEV

4%

ULTRA

BATTERY Li-Air, Li-S, Fuel Cells Li-ion


[email protected]



Nice, FRANCE

TAKEAWAYS

Li-ion battery is driven today by Portable PCs & electronic devices

For HEV, the battery technology is today the NiMH

LIB begin really to compete in 2012

P-HEV & EV will be powered by Li-ion: 5 B$ market in 2015 & 9 B$ in 2020

EV expectations attract large Chemical companies

New materials are needed to meet Automotive standards

HEV will account for less than 5% of the automotive sales in 2020

P-HEV & EV < 2% by 2020

Micro-hybrid will achieve 40%

Lead acid battery will be the first market in 2020 in volume & value

Battery Market 2010-2020

CAGR = +8%

RECHARGEABLE BATTERY

MARKET WORLDWIDE

2000-2020

33

-

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 M

$

Lead Acid NiCd NiMH LIB

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

1990 2000 2010 2020 M

Wh

Lead Acid NiCd NiMH LIB Others


[email protected]



Nice, FRANCE

THANK YOU

Christophe PILLOT

AVICENNE ENERGY

[email protected]

Phone: +33 1 47 78 46 00

Mobile: + 33 6 88 82 79 49

34

the worldwide battery market 2011-2025

Documents