the year 2027? how the new industrial revolution is influencing value creation in society
TRANSCRIPT
The Year 2027?
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How the new industrial revolution is
influencing value creation in society
December 2017
Halloween in Nashville, 1974 2016
If the rate of change on the outside (of an organization)
exceeds the rate of change on the inside, the end is near....
-Jack Welch
Digital is the main reason
just over half the Fortune 500 companies
have disappeared since the year 2000.
-Pierre Nanterme, CEO Accenture, 2016
Yet..Digital disruption
has only just begun.
Digital penetration has only just begun
http://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/digital-mckinsey/our-insights/the-case-for-digital-reinvention#0
Digitalization pressures revenue and profit growth
http://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/digital-mckinsey/our-insights/the-case-for-digital-reinvention#0
All our knowledge is about the past, but all our strategic decisions are about the future.
What we don’t know we don’t know
Outside our comprehension
What we know
What we know we don’t know
Conway 2003
Thx to R. Wieselfors, Ericsson for photos
Thx to R. Wieselfors, Ericsson for photos
“We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years
and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten.”
- Bill Gates, The Road Ahead, 1996
2015
H.I.S. Co. has two Hen’na Hotels run
entirely by robots and plans to open 100 hotels.
Food deliveries
Check-in
Automated TasksConciergePorters
CleaningLawnmowingRoom Service
Robot TrashcanRobot Fish
AssemblyWelding
Food serviceHousekeeper
BookkeepingTelephone operator
ProgrammersData scientists
Four types of jobs
Autor et al., 2003
Cognitive“Brains”
Manual“Hands”
Routine“Well-defined rules”
Non-routine“Rules difficult to define”
People• “Net generation”• 24x7 “mobile” workforce• Knowledge via MOOCs• Sharing not owning• Sustainability• Gigs and not jobs
Technology • Broadband/wifi• Smart phones• Cloud• Internet of Things • Data/AI/ML/NN• Autonomous vehicles• Smart Robotics• VR/AR/Holography• 3D printing/ALM• Blockchains
Open Source IP• Software
• Hardware• Physibles
Convergence of…..
Finance• Microlending/microfinance • Crowdfunding/equity/P2P• Cryptocurrencies• Blockchains• Mobile money and payments • M2M and R2R payments
http://marketrealist.com/2016/01/fourth-industrial-revolution-need-know/
Technology replacing Energy and Banking
http://www.visualcapitalist.com/chart-largest-companies-market-cap-15-years/
The New Multinationals
CGE Platform Database with Quid visualization, 2015
Over $3 trillion in firm market cap
Selected platform companies Emerging platform clusters
2016 Parker & Van Alstyne, with Choudary – licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-SA 4.0).
Intangible assets 87% of S&P 500 Market Value
FIRM FOUNDED EMPLOYEES MKT CAP
BMW 1916 122,000 $56B
UBER 2009 7,000 $62B
MARRIOTT 1927 200,000 $32B
AIRBNB 2008 5,000 $21B
WALT DISNEY 1923 185,000 $172B
FACEBOOK 2004 15,000 $369B
WALMART 1962 2,300,000 $206B
ALIBABA 1999 36,000 $241B
Adapted from Parker & Van Alstyne, with Choudary, 2016, and updated January 2017
Something fundamental is changing
The commodification of banking
In 2000, the U.S. cash equities trading desk at Goldman Sachs’s New York headquarters
employed 600 traders, buying and selling
stock for large clients.
Today there are just 2 traders left.
http://www.nanalyze.com/2017/02/artificial-intelligence-investment-banking/
Access to resources, not ownership
Pipeline – Traditional linear value chain
Supply-side economies of scale
Platform-based business models
Demand-side economies of scale
Platforms leverage Network Effects
Enabling transactions among strangers
Value rises as more people use the platform
Interpersonal trust
Institutional trust - brand
Institutional trust – platform
Enabling trust between strangers
1rst
2nd
3rd
Changing nature of trust
“We want to help small businesses grow by solving their problems.”
- Founder & CEO Jack Ma
Expanding industry boundaries“to build the future infrastructure of commerce”
Design thinking turns needs into
demand
27
IDEO
“Jobs to be done” – Clayton Christensen
Alibaba Group – “Doing more with less”
TRUST: The prerequisite for scale and scope
Third parties attached to platform
− Fraud
− Operational
− Health, safety
Payment systems
− Functionality
− Fraud
Privacy of data
− Cybersecurity
− Ethical usage of personal data
Trust inDigital
Environments
The threat of the “Winner-take-all” Platforms
http://www.the-digital-insurer.com/dia/zhong-an-chinas-first-complete-online-insurance-company/
https://www.ft.com/content/e76198d2-1b26-11e5-8201-cbdb03d71480
Moving into banking and insurance
Betting on “The winner takes all” Immelt’s goal: “A top 10 software company” by 2020
• Predix: USD 1 bln investment• Open-source model, e.g., Android• 19,000 developers + 3rd party developers • Software building blocks (e.g., blockchain)
CDO
From elevators and escalators to “Moving humanity digitally”
-Digital Officer
Omnichannel Business-”Life events”
-Own customer relationship-Multiproduct, multichannel
-Integrated value chain
e.g., ING, Schindler
Supplier-Products/services
-Sell through another-Low-cost producer
-Incremental innovatione.g., Sony
Ecosystem Driver-One stop destination
-Branded platform-Great customer experience
-3rd party plug’n plays-Matchmaker
e.g., Amazon, John Deere
Modular Producer-Ecosystem plug’n play
-Niche plug’n play-Adapt to ecosystems
-Continuous innovatione.g., Paypal
MIT study: Four incumbent digital business models
Weill & Woerner 2015
NeedsLife Events
DemographicsPurchase history
Control over decisions on brand, price, quality, etc.
* 32% Higher growth* 27% Higher profit margin
Many new data platforms emerging yet the winner will be the one that turns insight into customer
productivity and efficiency
B2B digital leaders:5Xs more revenue growth than their peers
B2B
B2B2C
Leadership• Commit to digital at strategic level• Create culture anchored on innovation and
execution• Shake up organizational structure and metrics
to support digital aspirations
Digital operational excellence• Create consistent online and offline
experiences • Enable and empower sales force through
data• Improve insight and decision making through
end-to-end connection of processeshttp://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/marketing-and-sales/our-insights/how-b2b-digital-leaders-drive-five-times-more-revenue-growth-than-their-peers
Exploitation
Improving existingvalue creation
activities
Exploration
Developing newvalue creation
activities
Adapted from March 1991
Banking is essential, but banks are not.
Bill Gates
https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
“…an electronic payment system based on
cryptographic proof instead of trust, allowing any
two willing parties to transact directly with each other
without the need for a trusted third party.”
From the north of Sweden
https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/afripreneurs-and-the-leapfrog-effect#/
toborrow
Crowd equity financing enabling new entrants
Elio Motors becoming a reality
https://www.eliomotors.com/
Community platform
Hierarchical firmVS
E.g., Ford~ Created by employees within
organizational boundaries
E.g., Local Motors~ Created by community collaborators
regardless of affiliation
Teigland, Di Gangi, & Yetis 2012
The Flipped Firm: New model of value creation?
“Local Motors is the place for people to create influential vehicles together.”
• 100xs lower capital cost • 5xs faster production
Local Motors to print 3D cars in its micro-factories
Olli - 3D printed autonomous vehicle with IBM Watson
https://www.3dprintingbusiness.directory/news/local-motors-prepares-serial-production-ollie-3d-printed-smart-vehicles/
From 25-30,000 parts to 50 parts
Local and mobile factories
Integrating offline and online communities
ArizonaMaryland
TennesseeGermany
No one owns everything,
Everyone owns something,
all resources reside in networks.
Adapted from Lévy 1997Image: Krebs
Access, not
ownership
http://marketrealist.com/2016/01/fourth-industrial-revolution-need-know/
Decline in routine jobs, even after recovery
H. Siu (Univ of BC) & N. Jaimovich (Duke Univ), 2015
In 2000, the U.S. cash equities trading desk at Goldman Sachs’s New York headquarters employed
600 traders, buying and selling stock for large
clients.
Today there are just 2 traders left.
All jobs have been created within non-routine
Food serviceHousekeeper
ProgrammersData scientist
Admin AssistantManufacturing
Jobs that did not exist in 2006
App developer
Social media manager
Uber driver
Driverless car engineer
Cloud computing specialist
Big data analyst/data scientist
Sustainability manager
YouTube content creators
Drone operators
Millennial generational expert
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/06/10-jobs-that-didn-t-exist-10-years-ago/
Digitalizing the Investor network
From factories to office parks to….
https://www.inc.com/glenn-leibowitz/meet-the-ceo-running-a-billion-dollar-company-with-no-offices-or-email.html
“Third Places” and co-working spaces
Sharing economy for workspace?
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-35246320
Gigging and Entrepreneuringin co-living/co-working spaces
Do-it-yourself (DIY) microfactory networks
Increasing forces for local community and
circular economies
Trading one job for a number of “gigs”…
Rethinkery enables the AI CEO through“work looking for people” on Upwork
“Flash organization” created with Foundry staffing Upwork freelancers
Valentine et al., 2017, http://hci.stanford.edu/publications/2017/flashorgs/flash-orgs-chi-2017.pdf
Digitalizing distributed ownership with
no central actor other than a computer network?
Smart cities and microgrids
Brooklyn Microgrid aims to create a local, neighborhood-powered grid that could operate in parallel to the main grid. One of the appeals of a microgrid is its potential to provide electricity to homes even if the main grid goes down. -NPR
Self-owning machines with blockchains and cryptocurrencies
https://mybit.io/
• Automation• Globalization• Rising
productivity of select few
-Ryan Avent
Increasing social responsibility
An increasing abundance of
labor
If replace 1000 workers with
one more robot
Data from 1990 to 2007 in the USA
1) Employment to population
ratio down by 0.18-0.34 PPt
2) Wages down by 0.25-0.50%
D. Acemoglu (MIT) & P. Restrepo (Boston Univ), Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets 2017, Natl Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper.
Changes in the top 10 skills
www.menti.com 59 26 7
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Cognitive Manual
Routine
Non-routine
Predicted Automation
Rate64-69%
Future Skills in Demand• Creativity
• Complex problem solving• Generating new patterns
• Coordinating others• Negotiating
• Emotional intelligence
Predicted Automation Rate
<20%
Predicted Automation
Rate81%
Predicted Automation
Rate26%
Jobs
https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-to-manage-robots-and-people-working-together-1433301051
The role of universities?
Tremendous progress
What progress is this?
https://sv.wikipedia.org/wiki/Handelsh%C3%B6gskolan_i_Stockholms_historia
Knowledge through MOOCs (Massively Open Online Courses)
Learning soft skills
Facilitating innovation at a makerspace atGeorgia Institute of Technology
https://smartech.gatech.edu/bitstream/handle/1853/53813/a_review_of_university_maker_spaces.pdf
“We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and
underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten.”
- Bill Gates, The Road Ahead, 1996
Scenario Thinking
Knowledge through MOOCs (Massively Open Online Courses)
Khan Academy
https://www.khanacademy.org/
Your networks matter
Your position in a social network
partly determines your future opportunities.
Casper & Murray 2002
German biotech
scientists
BA
Two individuals/organizations with the same number of contacts…
…but with very different access to resources
BA
”No one knows everything,
everyone knows something,
all knowledge resides in humanity.”networks
Adapted from Lévy 1997
Boundary spanner
• Better career• Higher salary• Adapt more quickly to change
Six degrees of separation- Milgram, 1967
Image: http://www.deliveringhappiness.com/on-six-degrees-of-separation/
Build relationships before you need them
@padday, www.thinkoutsidein.com/blog
Exploitation
Improving existingvalue creation
activities
Exploration
Developing newvalue creation
activities
Adapted from March 1991
Robin [email protected]
www.slideshare.net/[email protected]
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