the year everything changed for us row crop farming

8/7/2019 The Year Everything Changed for US Row Crop Farming

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/the-year-everything-changed-for-us-row-crop-farming 1/14

1996: The Year That Everything Changed

For US Row Crop Farming

An analysis of USDA-NASS, National Level Data comparing the pre-biotech, pre-´Freedom to Farm´ legislation era (1984-1995) and the

post-biotech era (1999-2010)

Steve Savage, Ph.D.

Author of the Applied Mythology Blog

Email: [email protected]

Higher resolution versions of graphs available on request

1



Executive Summary

� In the charts and graphs that follow one can see how the last 27 years of US farmingare clearly divided into two eras with distinctly different trends: 1984-1995 and 1999-2010 with the period 1996-1998 representing a transitional period

� There were three profound changes in 1996 that altered the course of US Agriculture1. The introduction of commercial, biotech crops (Corn, Soy, Cotton) which also involved a dramatic increase in

the private investment in crop breeding, particularly for soybeans

2. The 1996 Freedom to Farm Act which was theoretically a program to end farm subsidies and restrictionsover a 7-year period (many later legislative changes have greatly altered that course)

3. Exports of many US crops were disrupted by long delays in the approval of biotech lines in major importing

regions like the EU and Japan

� For almost every crop and geography, there has been a notable change of trend for what crops are planted, how their yield changes over time, and how much the grower is paid per unit of yield

1. Of the 8 crops studied, only Corn and Soybeans have seen increased planting while Spring Wheat has lostsubstantial acreage. Several other crops (Winter Wheat, Barley and Sorghum) have lost acreage but at aslower rate than before 1996

2. The rate of yield increase has been higher in the recent era for all crops but particularly for Corn and SpringWheat; however, for several crops there was a ³lag´ soon after the introduction of biotech traits and during

the transition. Yield changes are a function of specific traits but also many other changes in agronomics,land selection and other technologies

3. For all crops, regardless of biotech status there was a substantial drop in prices from 1996 to 1999 followedby a sharply higher rate of increase over the next 12 years

� It is difficult to separate the influences of technology and private investment,government interventions in the market and foreign trade policies. All that is clear isthat in 1996, ³everything changed.´

2



Planting Analysis

Crop Pre-Biotech Era(1984-1995) Post-Biotech Era(1999-2010)

Corn -0.3% +1.4%

Soybeans -0.4% Jumped ~20% then +0.2%

Spring Wheat +3.1 Dropped 20% then -1.3%

Winter Wheat Flat

Barley Declining rapidly Declining more slowly

Durum Wheat Declining Jumped then declining

Sorghum Declining rapidly Declining more slowly

Cotton Increasing Decreasing

3



Planting (1 of 2)

Corn Planting Trends

y = -0.3155x + 722.97

R2

= 0.0301

y = 1.4467x - 2795.6

R2

= 0.5995

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

P l a n

t i n g I n d e x v s t o 2 7 - y e a r A v e r a g e

Soybean Planting Trends

y = -0.3668x + 819.68

R2

= 0.1056

y = 0.1949x - 281.23

R2

= 0.0206

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

P l a n


Spring Wheat Planting T rends

y = 3.0697x - 6004.3

R2

= 0.648

y = -1.2296x + 2557.5

R2

= 0.5935

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

P l a n t i n g I n d e x v s t o 2 7 -

y e a r A v e r a g e

Winter Wheat Planting Trends

y = -1.7308x + 3554.1

R2

= 0.4282

y = -0.2095x + 508.94

R2

= 0.0207

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

P l a n t i n g I n d e x v s t o 2 7 -

y e a r A v e r a g e

4



Planting (2 of 2)

Barley Planting T rends

y = -8.4465x + 16942

R2

= 0.8905

y = -3.0014x + 6079.6

R2

= 0.7505

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

P l a n


Durum Wheat Planting T rends

y = -1.3072x + 2703.8

R2

= 0.109

y = -4.1907x + 8492.8

R2

= 0.544

4050

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

P l a n


Sorghum Planting Trends

y = -6.5624x + 13177

R2

= 0.6595

y = -3.3437x + 6780.2

R2

= 0.6471

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

P l a n t i n g I n d e x v s t o 2 7 - y e a r A v e r a g e

Cotton Planting T rends

y = 3.6681x - 7201.4

R2

= 0.7248

y = -4.1742x + 8468.8

R2

= 0.6707

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

P l a n t i n g I n d e x v s t o 2 7 - y e a r A v e r a g e

5



Yield Analysis

Crop Pre-Biotech Era

(1984-1995)

Post-Biotech Era

(1999-2010)

Corn +0.7% +1.8%

Soybeans +1.7% Lag 3 years then +1.7%

Spring Wheat +0.3% +2.4%

Winter Wheat +0.1% Jumped10% then +0.1%

Barley +1.5% Lag then +1.9%

Durum Wheat +1% Dropped 20% then +3.4%

Sorghum Flat Dropped 10% then +1.4%

Cotton +0.2% +2.9%

6



Yields (1 of 2)

Corn Yield Trends

y = 0.7018x - 1308.4

R2

= 0.0562

y = 1.8334x - 3562.6

R2

= 0.6403

4050

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Y

i e l d I n d e x v s 2 7 - y e a r A v e r a g e

Soybean Yield Trends

y = 1.7128x - 3316.9

R2

= 0.3679

y = 1.6582x - 3215.3

R2

= 0.4941

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Y


Spring Wheat Yield Trends

y = 0.3308x - 565.03

R2

= 0.0064

y = 2.4208x - 4744.2

R2

= 0.3755

40

50

60

70

80

90100

110

120

130

140

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Y i e l d I n d e x v s 2 7 - y e

a r A v e r a g e

Winter Wheat Yield Tre nds

y = 0.0767x - 87.092

R2

= 0.0054

y = 0.0857x - 96.139

R2

= 0.0042

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015


a r A v e r a g e

7



Yields (2 of 2)

Barley Yield Trends

y = 1.5403x - 2972.9

R2

= 0.2747

y = 1.9306x - 3761.5

R2

= 0.4743

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Y


Durum Wheat Yield Trends

y = 0.9601x - 1814.1

R2

= 0.0327

y = 3.3696x - 6650.1

R2

= 0.5411

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Y


Sorghum Yield Trends

y = -0.0005x + 100.06

R2

= 4E-08

y = 1.4015x - 2709.7

R2

= 0.1766

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015


a r A v e r a g e

Cotton Yield Tren ds

y = 0.2404x - 387.36

R2

= 0.0117

y = 2.8857x - 5674.5

R2

= 0.6291

40

50

60

70

80

90100

110

120

130

140

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015


a r A v e r a g e

8



Production Analysis


(1984-1995)

Post-Biotech Era

(1999-2010)

Corn +0.5% +2.8%

Soybeans +1.3% Jumped 20% then +2.1%

Spring Wheat +3.4% Dropped 20% then +1.3%

Winter Wheat -1.1% +0.3%

Barley -5.8% -2.3%

Durum Wheat -0.4% -0.3%

Sorghum -6.6% -2.2%

Cotton + 3.6% -1.3%

9



Production (1 of 2)

Soybean Production Trends

y = 1.3042x - 2514.2

R2

= 0.2498

y = 2.1348x - 4160.8

R2

= 0.4458

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

P r o d u c t i o n I n d e x v s 2 7 - y e a r A v e r a g e

Corn Production Trends

y = 0.5269x - 965.53

R2

= 0.0171

y = 3.7607x - 7421.1

R2

= 0.7558

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015


Spring Wheat Production Trends

y = 3.3739x - 6615.8

R2

= 0.2485

y = 1.2946x - 2495

R2

= 0.1587

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

P r o d u c t i o n I n d e x v s 2 7

- y e a r A v e r a g e

Winter Wheat Production Trends

y = -1.1451x + 2382

R2

= 0.0946

y = 0.3324x - 571.98

R2

= 0.0097

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015



10



Production (2 of 2)

Durum Wheat Production Trends

y = -0.3773x + 850.51

R2

= 0.0042

y = -0.2776x + 651.58

R

2

= 0.00320

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015


Barley Production Trends

y = -5.8139x + 11697

R2

= 0.5099 y = -2.3209x + 4720.5

R2

= 0.4890

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015


Sorghum Production T rends

y = -6.5688x + 13191

R2

= 0.4793

y = -2.1774x + 4439

R2

= 0.27670

50

100

150

200

250

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015



Cotton Production Trends

y = 3.5777x - 7027.9

R2

= 0.6307

y = -1.2877x + 2690.8

R2

= 0.047

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015



11



Price Analysis


(1984-1995)

Post-Biotech Era

(1999-2010)

Corn +1.9% Dropped 30%, then +10.9%

Soybeans +1% Dropped 30%, then +9.9%

Spring Wheat +1.8% Dropped 20% then +9.8%

Winter Wheat +2% Dropped 40% then +9.7%

Barley +1.1% Dropped 20% then 9.4%

Durum Wheat +3.2% Dropped 50% then +10.6%

Sorghum +2.7% Dropped 40% then +11%

Cotton +2% Dropped 50% then +4%

12



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14

the year everything changed for us row crop farming

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