Catastrophe reserving: the zones of possible occurrences of large earthquakes

Sri Widiyantoro

Dean and Professor

Faculty of Mining and Petroleum Engineering

Institute of Technology Bandung (ITB)

17 January 2018, Jakarta

Outline:

1. Lessons Learned from

Japan Earthquakes

2. Implications for Indonesia

3. Closing Remarks

2006 Jogyakarta, Indonesia Mw 6.3

2009 Suruga Bay, Japan Mw 6.4

4 – 5 弱 5 弱- 5強 5強 – 6弱 6強-7 3-4 3 2 1

o 50 km

震度

Deaths: 0 people 5749 people

2009 L’Aquila, Italy Mw 6.3

295 people

震度

What is an earthquake? Sudden violent

movement within the crust or upper mantle

Mantle Convection: The Driving Force

USGS webpage

Implications for Java and Sumatra?

Estimasi sebelumnya Mw=7.2 – 8.0

Yang terjadi Mw=9.0

3.0 g

station MYG004 ( Tsukadate) site 38.7292 141.0217 epicenter 38.103 142.86, jarak (site-epicenter) 175km

Map of Earthquake Sources for Indonesia 2016 Subduction Megathrust

New Hazard Maps (2010 vs 2017)

Produk Tim Peta 2016:

- Peta Sumber Gempa Bumi Indonesia 2016

- Peta Hazard Gempa Bumi Indonesia 2016 untuk perancangan bangunan tahan gempa

- Buku Laporan berisi detil informasi menyangkut pembuatan peta (2 bahasa)

- Publikasi informasi sumber gempa dalam website

Pemuthakhiran Peta Gempa Indonesia 2016

Upaya penyempurnaan peta gempa yang dilakukan meliputi:

(a) pemakaian data dasar yang lebih baik seperti SRTM-30, IFSAR, LiDAr, dan katalog gempa sampai tahun 2016

• EHB (1960-2008) • USGS (1973-2016) • ISC-GEM (1907-2004) • Relocated BMKG data (2009-2015)

Katalog PuSGeN 2016: all Shocks (1907-2016) Working Group Catalog

(b) Pokja Seismologi melakukan relokasi lebih dari 12.000 episenter

Vektor pergeseran episenter hasil relokasi untuk seluruh wilayah Indonesia

(Widiyantoro et al., 2016)

Double-difference relocation of

earthquakes in Indonesia

BMKG;

USGS

Indonesian Concrete Design Standard 1966 Indonesian Loading Standard 1970

Indonesian Standard for Design of Earthquake Resistance Building 1983

Indonesian Standard for Design of Earthquake Resistance Building SNI 1727-2002

Indonesian Hazard Maps 2010

Hazard 2500y (2010)

Hazard 2500y (2017)

Active Faults in

Sumatera

Active Faults in Java

Active Faults in Sulawesi

Natural hazards are inevitable;

Natural disasters are not;

How can we reduce aftereffects?

(pers. comm. Dr. W.-M. Boerner, 2012)

Major paradigm

Closing Remarks

Moving beyond Hazard to Risk

Estimates potential economic loss and/or fatalities due

to earthquakes

Far more effective than hazard in influencing policy

makers

Depends on accurate and reliable building exposure

data and fragility models

Reliable fragility models are constrained by actual

earthquake damage and exposure data

26

Hazard-map-based zonation of risk for Germany Hazard Damage Losses

Assets Vulnerability

Courtesy of

Prof. F. Wenzel

(2006)

Map of layer depth for Vs > 750 m/s

Ridwan et al. (2016)

Acknowledgements

MAIPARK

PuSGeN

Prof. James J. Mori (Kyoto University)

Prof. Phil R. Cummins (Australian National University; Geoscience Australia)

Many thanks go to MAIPARK