the$evolu*on$of$civilizaon$...

The Evolu*on of Civiliza*on CCGL 9042

Key teachers: Dr Stacey Cherny (Course Coordinator)

Prof PC Sham Department of Psychiatry & Centre for Genomic Sciences

3 September 2014

Lecture 1 •  Introduc*on to the teachers •  Outline of the course

–  Explana*on of the course *tle •  What do we mean by evolu*on? •  What do we mean by civiliza*on?

– What is progress? – How to we gain knowledge and understanding?

•  Scien*fic method –  Brief human history – Methods of assessment –  Topics in the course

CCGL9042 Global Issues The Evolu*on of Civiliza*on

Key teachers •  Stacey Cherny

– Assistant Professor, Department of Psychiatry

–  BA in Psychology from University of Winnipeg

–  PhD in Behavior Gene*cs from University of Colorado, Boulder

•  Pak Sham –  Chair Professor of Psychiatric Genomics

– MB BCh (Oxford), MSc in Sta*s*cs (London), psychiatrist

Overall theme of the course •  The theory of evolu*on is a useful framework for understand how

humans went from simple hunter-‐gatherers to modern society, with massive increases in produc*vity and therefore quality of life

•  Two types of evolu*on are opera*ng in humans, to varying degrees at different *mes: –  Evolu*on of genes – how our biology has changed over *me –  Evolu*on of ideas – how we do things differently over *me

•  The course will draw on evolu*onary theory, anthropology, history, economics, and psychology in addressing these issues

•  Specializa*on and trade are what have driven human progress •  How can our knowledge of human nature and past progress be

used to address major societal challenges?

•  Survival of the fi^est through natural selec*on (Darwin) – There is natural gene*c varia*on between but also within individual species and the likelihood of surviving and reproducing (being selected) is a func*on of the par*cular genes the individual has, since different genes are more suited to different environments

What is evolu*on?

The Selfish Gene (Dawkins)

•  The Selfish Gene theory of evolu*on through natural selec*on explains how evolu*on works at the gene*c level

•  All organisms (including humans) are designed and programmed by our DNA, which is composed of genes which code for proteins which build organisms

•  Natural selec*on effec*vely acts on the gene (or parts of the gene), rather than the individual

Proper*es of successful genes (genes which have lots of copies of themselves around)

•  Longevity – the organism containing the gene lives a long life and so become more numerous

•  Fecundity – the organism reproduces frequently, making more copies of the genes in contains

•  Copying fidelity – when passing on genes to the next genera*on, it makes accurate copies

How do we get evolu*on? Varia*on!

•  Copying errors – once in a while an error in copying is made. While most errors are harmful, if an error increases the chances of the organism reproducing, it gets copied and increases in frequency.

•  Recombina*on – humans and other higher organisms have two copies (alleles) of each gene; when they mate, their offspring receive a unique combina*on of genes, half from mother and half from father. This introduces varia*on, with some combina*ons be^er suited to the environment than others.

The Meme

•  An idea, which necessarily resides in the human brain •  Just as genes replicate themselves, so do memes

–  A good, or at least compelling, idea will spread to other people who will in turn spread it further, through imita*on

– Memes can recombine, just like genes •  Memes also mutate

–  Some mutated memes will replicate be^er than others, because they are more useful (or compelling) to people

•  Memes generally evolve much faster than genes

Richard Dawkins, The Selfish Gene

The Meme

•  Big Bang Theory explains the meme (3:49): – h^p://youtu.be/onVxp40MisI

Successful memes •  Longevity

–  The longer lived the meme, the more copies would be present •  Fecundity

–  For scien*fic ideas, fecundity can be measured by Impact Factor –  For products, number of copies sold –  But popular memes can some*mes die off quickly, despite being replicated a huge number of *mes

–  Introduc*on of varia*on through ma*ng of ideas •  Copying fidelity

–  How accurately the meme is reproduced –  Muta*ons, giving rise to new memes


Compe**on among memes

•  While memes don’t have alleles, they do s*ll have compe*tors

•  Humans have limited brain capacity and so can’t be exposed to, let alone infected by, infinite memes – Memes compete for our a^en*on

•  However, humans as a whole have a near infinite capacity for memes and form a massive collec*ve intelligence


•  Civilized socie*es are generally regarded as those which have – Government – A wri^en language – A social or cultural center – A city – Trade – Money – A unique culture

Civiliza*on

What do we mean by civiliza*on in this course?

•  The transi*on from a simple hunter-‐gatherer existence to our complex society, with all the benefits/risks

•  The focus of the course is on how humans increased their prosperity, or economic success, which allowed for all the structures of complex civiliza*ons, and for the massive improvements in quality of life

What the course isn’t about •  History of civiliza*ons

–  The course will focus on the general theme of the evolu*on of civiliza*on, through specializa*on and trade

•  Economic progress –  Some cultures/civiliza*ons will be men*oned for their significance in this process, but we will not look at a complete history

–  Civiliza*on involves much more than economic progress, but it can be argued that other aspects of civiliza*on could not be achieved without economic progress to allow for free *me to concentrate on things other than survival

•  Improvement in quality of life – Health –  Leisure *me –  Entertainment –  Knowledge and understanding – Happiness –  Security – Quality of natural environment

•  Increase in quan*ty of life –  Lifespan

Why does economic improvement ma^er?

How has progress been achieved?

•  Progress required manipula*on and control of the environment

•  Progress tends to be gradual and builds on and combines previous achievements

•  Progress is driven by ideas, which broadly speaking, form culture

•  Just as successful genes become more frequent in the gene pool, successful ideas spread in the pool of ideas

•  Specializa*on and trade

Progress

•  The book on which this course is based is The Ra-onal Op-mist, by Ma^ Ridley

•  Let’s hear him introduce this book – h^p://youtu.be/OLHh9E5ilZ4 (17 min)

•  And a longer talk about the book – h^p://youtu.be/9-‐zLK50w4Q0 (47 min)

Progress in longevity

h^ps://koshland-‐science-‐museum.org/sites/all/exhibits/exhib_infec*ous/public_health_02.jsp

h^p://alfin2101.blogspot.hk/2011/09/is-‐this-‐historical-‐reprieve-‐from.html

Increasing food produc*on efficiency

From The Ra-onal Op-mist

Declining rates of popula*on growth


Decline in pollu*on


Projec*ons for world GDP/capita


Method of Inquiry

•  How do we find things out about about our subject area – evolution of civilization or prosperity?

How to find truth?

•  Ask the authorities? •  Search the internet? •  Survey the opinions of many people? •  Discuss with friends to reach an agreement? •  Vigorous debate between adversaries?

Socrates Plato

The Dialectic Method Formulate the question Define the terms Propose different viewpoints (Thesis and Antithesis) Rational discourse on their merits and difficulties (appealing to logic rather than emotions) Arrive at a conclusion (Synthesis)

The Method of Science

•  “Observation is the ultimate and final judge of the truth of an idea” –  Experiments should be well-planned and

carefully conducted to obtain valid observations

•  Ideas come from human imagination –  Should be logically consistent –  Should generate testable (observable)

predictions –  Predictions should be confirmed or refuted

by experiments

The Uncertainty of Science

•  “All scientific knowledge is uncertain…. Because we have the doubt, we then propose looking in new directions for new ideas”

•  “This freedom of doubt is an important matter in the sciences…. I feel a responsibility to proclaim the value of this freedom and to teach that doubt is not to be feared, but that it is to be welcomed as the possibility of a new potential for human beings”

What science cannot answer

•  The question “Should I do this?” can be divided into two parts: –  “If I do this what will happen?” This is

susceptibility to scientific investigation –  “Do I want this to happen?” This is

ultimately to do with value judgment, which is highly subjective and personal.

Human History

•  Applying the scientific method to the evolution of civilization requires considering the history of the human species

How we know the past •  Memory •  Account from eye-witness •  Contemporaneous records •  Historians’ accounts •  Stories, folklore •  Human artifacts •  Fossils •  Radioactive dating •  Comparative studies

–  Anatomy –  Genetic sequence –  Language

The past of the human race

Hunter-gatherers Small tribes Stone tools Fire Language Art

Farming Settlements Metal tools

10,000 4,000

Early Civilizations

Egypt Mesopotamia

China India Maya

Kingdoms of Israel & Judah

Great Philosophers

Confucius and His Students Ming Dynasty. From Wikipedia

“What you do not want done to yourself, do not do to others” “To be wronged is nothing unless you continue to remember it” “Real knowledge is to know the extent of one’s ignorance” “The more man meditates upon good thoughts, the better will be his world and the world at large”

“Do not do to others what angers you if done to you by others” “Be kind, for everyone you meet is fighting a hard battle” “True wisdom comes to each of us when we realize how little we understand about life, ourselves, and the world around us” “To find yourself, think for yourself”

The Death of Socrates Jacgues-Louis David, 1787

Great Religions

Christianity

Islam Buddhism Hinduism

Judaism

The Rise of Science “In the discussion of natural problems we ought to begin not with the Scriptures, but with experiments and demonstrations” “Measure what is measurable, and make measurable what is not”

Galileo (1564-1642)

Newton (1642-1726)

“If I have seen further than others, it is by standing upon the shoulders of giants” “I can calculate the motion of the heavenly bodies, but not the madness of the people”

Literature

Shakespeare (1564-1616)

The Globe Theatre

“All the world's a stage, and all the men and women merely players: they have their exits and their entrances; and one man in his *me plays many parts, his acts being seven ages.”

Dickens (1812-1870)

“Charity begins at home, and jus*ce begins next door.“

“A day wasted on others is not wasted on one's self.”

Prosperity

Adam Smith (1723-1790)

“It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their self interest”

“Little else is requisite to carry a state to the highest degree of opulence from the lowest barbarism but peace, easy taxes, and a tolerable administration of justice”

“Virtue is more to be feared than vice, because its excesses are not subject to the regulation of conscience”

“All mankind … being all equal and independent, no one ought to harm another in his life, health, liberty or possessions”

“All wealth is the product of labour”

John Locke (1632-1704)

Industrialisation

Effect of industrialisation on income levels (Gross Domestic Product)

From Wikipedia

Technological innovations led to machines that increased output, using less labour

Socialism

Karl Marx (1818-1883)

Struggle between the Bourgeoisie (Capitalists) and the Proletariat (Working Class) “The production of too many useful things results in too many useless people” “Capital is dead labour, which, vampire-like, lives only by sucking living labour” “The theory of Communism may be summed up in one sentence: Abolish all private property” “From each according to his abilities, to each according to his needs” “Democracy is the road to socialism”

Course Learning Outcomes •  Demonstrate an understanding and awareness of the various domains of human progress

•  Describe and explain the basic principles of evolu*onary theory as a model for human progress

•  Demonstrate an understanding of how trade and specializa*on are central to human advancement

•  Apply general knowledge and understanding of evolu*onary theory, psychology, and the scien*fic method to solving some societal problems

Weekly Lectures

•  In sequen*al order, each week a chapter in The Ra-onal Op-mist will be reviewed, with par*cular aspects highlighted and expanded

•  The PowerPoint presenta*on will be made available just before the class starts

•  Lectures will oren contain videos of experts in par*cular areas, since it is oren best to hear ideas from those who either came up

The Ra-onal Op-mist •  Chapter One -‐ A be^er today: the unprecedented present •  Chapter Two -‐ The collec*ve brain: exchange and specialisa*on arer

200,000 years ago •  Chapter Three -‐ The manufacture of virtue: barter, trust and rules arer

50,000 years ago •  Chapter Four -‐ The feeding of the nine billion: farming arer 10,000 years

ago •  Chapter Five -‐ The triumph of ci*es: trade arer 5,000 years ago •  Chapter Six -‐ Escaping Malthus’s trap: popula*on arer 1200 •  Chapter Seven -‐ The release of slaves: energy arer 1700 •  Chapter Eight -‐ The inven*on of inven*on: increasing returns arer 1800 •  Chapter Nine -‐ Turning points: pessimism arer 1900 •  Chapter Ten -‐ The two great pessimisms of today: Africa and climate arer

2010 •  Chapter Eleven -‐ The catallaxy: ra*onal op*mism about 2100

Tutorials

•  Groups of 12 students •  Mee*ng 1 hour per week, star*ng week 3

•  Discussion of lecture content and applica*on to problems in modern society

•  Discussion of other assignments •  The same Tutor will conduct all tutorials

Dr Larry Baum

Assessment

•  30% tutorial par*cipa*on (quality and quan*ty) •  30% blog contribu*ons (approximately 1200-‐1500 words across the whole course)

•  30% group presenta*on –  3 minutes of presenta*on per student – Will be conducted in the final tutorial class

•  10% in-‐class quizzes –  3 or 4 short in-‐class quizzes will be given to assess understand of previous lectures/readings

Conclusions •  The scientific method is based on constant questioning, innovative

hypotheses, rational discourse, and empirical experiments •  Important questions concerning values and morals are outside the

realm of science, but are the subject of philosophy, religion and literature

•  Human societies have evolved over the millennia from small hunter-gatherer communities to cities and states supported by farming, and finally through industrialization to modern mixed capitalist / socialist economies

–  Specialization and trade has been central to driving this process

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