CSIRO-MISA Research Program to Support BP Oil/Gas Exploration in the Great Australian Bight

RationaleThis is a proposal for a collaborative research program by CSIRO and MISA to address BP’s science needs to support oil/gas exploration in the Great Australian Bight (GAB).

Knowledge Gaps Relatively little physical, chemical and biological data have been collected from the deep water ecosystems of the central GAB where exploratory drilling will occur or from the nearby western GAB; limited data are available for shelf waters of the eastern GAB. Spatial and temporal variability in physical oceanographic processes (e.g., upwelling and downwelling) and their roles in driving ecosystem structure and function are also poorly understood, especially in the central and western GAB. Virtually no data are available on regional, inter-annual and seasonal patterns of microbial, planktonic and micro-nektonic community structure and dynamics that are needed to develop conceptual and numerical ecosystem models for the region. Baseline information on levels of biodiversity and endemism in pelagic communities that will be required to develop an ecological monitoring program has not been collected. The capacity of the local bacterial assemblage to degrade hydrocarbons is unknown. Some data are available on the distribution, abundance, foraging patterns and movements of a few large apex predators (e.g., southern bluefin tuna), but there is limited information from which to predict the likely impacts of noise or spillages from oil and gas exploration on these taxa. Similarly, some surveys of benthic biodiversity in and around the GAB Marine Park have been conducted on the continental shelf in the eastern GAB, but few data are available for the deep water communities that will be drilled or shelf communities in the western GAB. Only two research cruises have surveyed the region for seeps that may be associated with hydrocarbon deposits.

Research Themes and LeadersCSIRO and MISA have developed research proposals to address information needs identified by BP. The six themes and nominated science leaders are listed below.

Oceanography - John Middleton (MISA), David Griffin (CSIRO) Pelagic Ecosystem & Environmental Drivers - Rudy Kloser, (CSIRO), Tim Ward

(MISA) Benthic Biodiversity - Alan Williams (CSIRO), Jason Tanner (MISA) Ecology of Apex Predators - Simon Goldsworthy (MISA), Campbell Davies

(CSIRO) Petroleum Geology & Geochemistry - Andrew Ross (CSIRO), Bruce Ainsworth

(MISA) Socio-economic Baseline - Andrew Beer (MISA), Sean Pascoe (CSIRO)

Approach and MethodsThis CSIRO-MISA research program involves the agencies and scientists that hold the majority of data currently available on the ecosystems of the GAB. They also collectively hold the majority of expert scientific knowledge about the system and have strong working relationships with other stakeholders (e.g., fishing and aquaculture industries) and the relevant regulatory departments of the Commonwealth and State Governments. The 12 science leaders listed above have collectively published more than 700 scientific papers and 500 major scientific reports on topics relevant to this program.

Members of this team have expertise across a wide range of disciplines and have conducted scientific studies across the spectrum of applied and theoretical ecology, and have

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considerable experience collaborating in large multidisciplinary studies. Some of the more relevant accomplishments of the team include:

establishing an Integrated Marine Observing System in the eastern GAB; developing several oceanographic models for the region; establishing performance assessment protocols and monitoring programs for

marine protected areas; developing and applying tools and protocols for assessing and monitoring deep

water pelagic and benthic communities; investigating critical aspects of the biology and ecology of keystone species (e.g.,

Australian sardine) and apex predators (e.g., southern bluefin tuna); developed ecosystem models for nearby and comparable regions; determination and characterisation of hydrocarbon seepage in frontier regions using

novel survey approaches and technologies; developing new sensors and systems to measure hydrocarbons in the marine

environment; assessing socio-economic status and perceptions of regional communities and

developing models to estimate economic impact of development scenarios; providing advice to stakeholders and policy makers with scientific advice regarding

management and conservation of marine resources and habitats.

The major benefits derived from conducting the ecological research required by BP in an integrated multi-disciplinary program such as the one proposed here are the cost-efficiencies and value-adding benefits that accrue from synergies among themes. For example, the observational data and model outputs from the Oceanographic Theme will enhance studies of microbial, planktonic and micro-nektonic communities which will in turn assist studies of distribution, abundance, foraging patterns and migratory patterns of apex predator species. This approach will also provide significant logistical benefits, such as integrating cruises to collect data relevant to several themes (e.g., seep distribution, characterisation of benthic biodiversity).

During the last two years of the proposed program, information collected in each of the themes will be synthesised to provide a conceptual model of the structure and dynamics of the GAB region ecosystem which will be used to underpin a qualitative risk assessment (hazard identification). Data collected throughout the program will also be integrated into ecosystem models that will be used to conduct a quantitative ecological risk assessment for ongoing oil/gas production in the GAB. This information will provide a basis for developing an integrated monitoring program to support potential future oil/gas drilling production. Findings will be compiled into an overarching final report to BP on the CSIRO-MISA Science Program.

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Theme 2: Pelagic Ecosystem & Environmental Drivers

PI – Rudy Kloser (CSIRO), Co PI – Tim Ward (MISA)

Objectives1) Provide baseline information on the community structure, dynamics, biodiversity and

endemism of microbes (i.e., viruses and bacteria), plankton (i.e., phytoplankton, zooplankton, ichthyoplankton) and micronekton (including squids, small pelagic and mesopelagic fish and gelatinous organisms).

2) Assess variation in primary and secondary productivity and food web structure in relation to physical drivers, including currents, turbidity, irradiance, stratification, nutrient concentrations and turbulence.

3) Provide information on the microbial, planktonic and micronekton communities that will inform assessments of distributions of key species.

4) Identify key trophic pathways leading to apex predators in the Great Australian Bight (GAB).

5) Develop tools and protocols for monitoring ecological indicators of the pelagic system.

Knowledge GapsThere is limited data and conceptual understanding of the GAB ecosystem structure and food web function, especially in the deep water habitats of the central GAB. Baseline data are needed on the microbial, planktonic and micronekton communities of the GAB to develop conceptual and numerical models of ecosystem function and to inform future impact assessments. Data on the patterns of regional, intra- and inter-annual variability is needed to enable discrimination between long-term trends and rapid changes in ecosystem structure and food web function. This information is also needed to explain patterns in the distribution, abundance and migration of apex predators and their vulnerability to potential anthropogenic impacts. Understanding potential ecosystem impacts will require understanding of the trophodynamics of these predators and their linkages to the wider ecosystem and its physical drivers. Ecological indicators for reporting and assessing impacts are needed to establish cost-effective monitoring tools and protocols. The knowledge gaps listed above need to be addressed in both the central GAB where exploratory drilling, and potentially oil/gas production, will occur and downstream in shelf waters of the eastern GAB.

MethodsTask 1: Characterise spatial and temporal variability of plankton communities

Process zooplankton and ichthyoplankton samples collected from the eastern GAB since 1998 (~300 samples per year, 1998-2007, 2009, 2011).

Morphological identification to putative taxa and size spectral analysis using Laser Optical Particle Counter (LOPC).

Multivariate analysis of patterns of community structure in relation to physical drivers. Complete report, identify potential ecological indicators.

Task 2: Characterise seasonal and spatial variability of plankton, and micronekton communities

Submit proposal for two surveys on RV Investigator in 2014-15

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Field surveys in winter 2014 and summer 2015 with 3 main transects (east, west and middle of GAB Marine Park); 8 sampling stations per transect.

Field surveys and laboratory analyses to include:o collection of water samples for nutrients, microbial and planktonic

communities analyseso analysis of macro and micro-nutrient concentrations from water sampleso size fractionated analyses of phytoplankton pigments via HPLCo in-situ assessment of primary productivity using FIRe fluorometryo identification of microbial and planktonic communities by flow cytometry,

microscopy and molecular techniqueso net, acoustic and optical sampling of zooplankton and micronekton for

biomass, diversity, energetics and trophic linkages. Detailed analysis of structure, dynamics, biodiversity and endemism of the microbial

and planktonic and micronekton communities. Identification of ecological indicators and description of potential monitoring program.

Task 3: Predator diets and trophic pathways Field surveys to collect tissue samples from apex predators to overlap with RV

Investigator surveys in space and time. Using biochemical (stable isotopes, signature fatty acids) and traditional (stomach

content) techniques identify major trophic pathways leading to apex predators in the region.

WhoCSIRO: Kloser, Thompson, Young, RichardsonMISA: Ward, van Ruth, Leterme, Doubell, Mitchell, Beheragary, Goldsworthy

Linkages Use information from the Oceanography Theme for analyses of community structure

in relation to physical drivers. Provide information to assist elucidation of factors driving distribution, abundance

and migration patterns of apex predators. Provide data and information to assist the understanding of patterns of benthic

community structure and microbes with capacity to degrade hydrocarbons.

Timeline2013: Tasks 1 (complete laboratory analysis), 2 (proposal for research cruises)

2014: Tasks 1 (data analysis, final report – identify potential ecological indicators), 2 (research cruise winter), 3 (sample collection to coincide with Task 2 field studies)

2015: Tasks 2 (research cruise summer, baseline description of GAB ecosystem structure and function), 3 (baseline description of GAB trophic structure)

2016: Tasks 2 (data analysis, final report – synthesis, identify ecological indicators, describe monitoring program), 3 (data analysis, final report – synthesis, identify ecological indicators, describe monitoring program including key indicators)

Outputs & OutcomesTask 1 Zooplankton and ichthyoplankton communitiesOutputs

Baseline description of patterns of spatial and seasonal variability in the zooplankton and ichthoplankton communities of the eastern GAB

Evaluation of potential ecological indicators, monitoring tools and protocols

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Outcomes Basis for establishing a plankton monitoring program for the pelagic ecosystem

Task 2 Microbial, planktonic and micronekton communitiesOutputs

Baseline description of patterns of spatial and seasonal variability in the microbial, planktonic and micronekton communities of the central GAB

Evaluation of potential ecological indicators, monitoring tools and protocols Outcomes

Basis for establishing a plankton monitoring program for the pelagic ecosystem

Task 3 Predator diets and trophic pathwaysOutput

Identified diets of key species and trophic pathways, including critical prey speciesOutcomes

Basis for establishing a monitoring program for the pelagic ecosystem

CVs & Selected PublicationsDr Rudy Kloser is team leader of the CSIRO deep-water ecosystems status and predictions group. The team investigates the impacts on benthic and pelagic ecosystems of extractive and utilisation industries. They provide underpinning observations and advice for the sustainable management of deepwater Australian fisheries and associated RFMOs. More broadly the team provides research support for the development and application of biodiversity mapping, prediction and monitoring methodologies for regional marine planning. In this way projects are carried out that look at understanding the structure and function of deep-water pelagic and benthic ecosystems in a changing and variable climate with anthropogenic impacts.

Selected publicationsKloser, R.J., Keith, G., and Althaus, F. (2010). Key Ecological Features of the East and South-east Marine Regions: Shelf Incising Canyons. Report to the Department of the Environment, Water, Heritage and the Arts, June 2010, copy held CSIRO., 21.

Kloser, R.J., Ryan, T., Young, J., and Lewis, M.E. (2009). Ocean basin scale acoustic observations of mid-trophic fishes, potential and challenges. ICES Journal of Marine Science 66, 998-1006.

Demer, D.A., Kloser, R.J., MacLennan, D., and Ona, E. (2009). An introduction to the proceedings and a synthesis of the 2008 ICES Symposium on the Ecosystem Approach with Fisheries Acoustics and Complementary Technologies (SEAFACTS). ICES Journal of Marine Science 66, 961-965.

Williams, A., Bax, N.J., Kloser, R.J., Althaus, F., Barker, B., and Keith, G. (2009). Australia's deep-water reserve network: implications of false homogeneity for classifying abiotic surrogates of biodiversity. ICES Journal of Marine Science 66, 214-224.

Kloser, R.J., Williams, A., and Butler, A.J. (2007). Exploratory Surveys of Seabed Habitats in Australia’s Deep Ocean using Remote Sensing – Needs and Realities in Todd, B.J., and Greene, H.G., eds., Mapping the Seafloor for Habitat Characterization. Geological Association of Canada, Special Paper 47.

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Assoc Professor Tim Ward leads SARDI’s Fisheries Science Program and has led multidisciplinary studies of the pelagic ecology of the Great Australian Bight since 1998. This work has included leading stock and ecosystem-based assessment of the South Australian Sardine Fishery and developing and conducting a performance assessment program for the GAB Marine Protected Area. He and other MISA staff have worked extensively and published numerous papers with members of the other project themes.

Selected publicationsWard, T.M., Burch, P., McLeay, L.J., and Ivey, A.R. (2011). Use of the Daily Egg Production Method for stock assessment of sardine, Sardinops sagax; lessons learnt over a decade of application off southern Australia. Reviews in Fisheries Science 19, 1-20.

Van Ruth, P.D., Ganf, G.G., and Ward, T.M. (2010). The influence of mixing on primary productivity: a unique interpretation of classical critical depth theory. Progress in Oceanography 85, 224-235.

Ward, T.M., McLeay, L.J., Dimmlich, W.F., Rogers, P.J., McClatchie, S., Mathews, R., Kaempf, J., and Van Ruth, P.D. (2006). Pelagic ecology of a northern boundary current system: effects of upwelling on the production and distribution of sardine, anchovy and southern bluefin tuna in the eastern Great Australian Bight. Fisheries Oceanography 15, 191-207.

Ward, T.M., Sorokin, S.J., Currie, D.R., Rogers, P.J., and McLeay, L.J. (2006). Epifaunal assemblages of the eastern Great Australian Bight: effectiveness of a benthic protection zone in representing regional biodiversity Continental Shelf Research 26, 25-40.

Goldsworthy, S.D., Page, B., Rogers, P., and Ward, T.M. (2011). Establishing ecosystem-based management for the South Australian Sardine Fishery: developing ecological performance indicators and reference points to assess the need for ecological allocations. Fisheries Research and Development Corporation, Project 2009/070. SARDI Research Report Series No.529.

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Theme 3: Benthic Biodiversity

PI – Alan Williams (CSIRO), Co PI – Jason Tanner (MISA)

Objectives1) Quantify spatial patterns in the physical environment, and composition and

abundance of benthic fauna in BP leases and adjacent continental slope areas of the Great Australian Bight (GAB) to provide baseline metrics relevant to monitoring the potential future impacts of oil and gas exploration on benthic communities.

2) Determine requirements (including identifying indicators and metrics), and identify suitable control sites, for future ecological monitoring – especially to detect and quantify ecological impacts from oil and gas exploration on benthic communities of the GAB Marine Park.

3) Apply new molecular methods to improve the scope, quantification and cost-effectiveness of benthic monitoring.

Knowledge GapsThe GAB Marine Park and Benthic Protection Zone (the ‘GAB MP’) was established near the central and widest part of Australia’s temperate continental margin to protect benthic communities of the shelf and slope from anthropogenic impacts. The area has been designated a Key Ecological Feature, and is considered to have high conservation value, due to its expected high levels of faunal endemism. However, characteristics of the deep GAB benthic environment and fauna is largely inferred from knowledge of GAB shelf fauna and deep fauna off south-east Australia; virtually nothing is known of the GAB mid- and lower continental slope depths in which BP will be operating. Only one site at 1000 m and one at 2000 m depth have been sampled for infauna and epifauna (Currie & Sorokin 2011). The proposed baseline benthic characterisation is an essential component of research during the exploratory drilling phase, both because conservation values are untested on the mid- and lower continental slope, and because the lease area extends across the GAB MP.

Establishing a biodiversity baseline will depend on providing context from adjacent areas, for example to help define endemicity at relevant spatial and taxonomic scales. For this reason, we will analyse data from previous MISA surveys of shelf waters (< 200 m depth), especially close to the GAB MP, and from CSIRO deepwater surveys in the far western and eastern GAB. Identifying the key elements of an ecological monitoring program will require new and innovative approaches. This is because traditional taxonomic methods alone are unlikely to provide the required resolution and quantification of the largely unknown benthic fauna in the project timeframe, and because the distribution of hydrocarbons from natural seeps, and their influence on biological communities, is unknown. Accordingly, this theme will apply the latest molecular methods for monitoring, and link those to other themes, e.g. Pelagic Ecosystem Theme. These innovations will include ecogenomic approaches that permit quantitative and cost-effective assay for community diversity and function, establishing the composition and abundance of microbial hydrocarbon degraders to determine community pre-adaptation to the presence of hydrocarbons and bioremediation potential, and selective genetic libraries to complement and advance morphological taxonomy within informative groups such as tanaid and ampeliscid crustacea, and siboglinid and spionid polychaetes.

MethodsTask 1: Field survey, biological inventory, environment, data management

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Integrate near-seabed BP seismic data with existing and new bathymetry data to identify key features in lease areas including areas of hard substrate, raised relief and, potentially, natural seeps.

Evaluate existing MISA and CSIRO benthic data from the temperate Australian shelf and slope to determine the required number of replicates for effective long-term monitoring.

Design and implement a benthic survey program to quantitatively sample deep sediment habitat for infauna and sediments at 200, 400, 1000, 2000, 3000 and 4000 m with a multi-corer; sample selected benthic features with Sherman benthic sled (hard ground epifauna), beam trawl (soft ground epifauna) and towed stereo video (communities).

Characterise background hydrocarbon levels in the benthic environment, particularly in sediment environments, key macrofaunal species, and microbes.

Document baseline benthic biodiversity at the levels of taxonomic and spatial resolution most relevant to characterising sites within the BP leases and adjacent areas, with a focus on selected informative taxa, and relate these to key environmental parameters such as sediment composition, bathymetry, water column productivity, and oceanography.

Document size structure and biomass of macrofauna and predictively model spatial distributions at the regional scale.

Establish and implement data management protocols to track provenance of raw datasets, provide metadata to accepted standards, identify data repositories from which data can be served and discovered (e.g., through CSIRO Data Trawler or the AODN).

Task 2: Indicators / metrics, monitoring Identify a suite of metrics from species and functional group-based analyses, and

from diversity indices, to establish indicators that enable the potential influences of oil and gas activities on benthic communities to be monitored at a variety of spatial scales.

Task 3: Molecular and ecogenomic tools, benthic system models Apply next generation sequencing techniques, including QPCR and pyrosequencing,

and micro-array based assays, to the design of a cost-effective monitoring capability that will provide a suite of biodiversity metrics, including quantitative estimates of biomass, for indicator organisms, including microbes with hydrocarbon degrading capacity.

Apply predictive models to develop regional-scale mapping of biodiversity metrics and benthic biomass from site-based observations.

WhoCSIRO: Williams, Kloser, Robert, Hook, CharitonMISA: Tanner, Bott, Currie, Sorokin, Dittman, BeheregarayQueens University: JamesSpecialist taxonomists from the South Australian Museum, Museum Victoria, Australian Museum, Western Australian Museum, Queensland Museum, international museums

Linkages Design of benthic biodiversity surveys will be informed by maps of natural seeps that

will be used to locate and stratify sample sites (Petroleum Geology & Geochemistry Theme).

Understanding the spatial distribution of chemosynthetic fauna (e.g., biodegrading microbes) will be informed by data on natural distribution and dynamics of

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hydrocarbons from geochemical analyses (Petroleum Geology & Geochemistry Theme).

Spatial models of benthic macrofaunal composition and standing stock will be underpinned by knowledge of sediment dynamics from bottom stress and current velocity data (Oceanography Theme), together with data on enrichment processes from primary and secondary water column production (Pelagic Ecosystems Theme) and geochemical sediment analysis (Petroleum Geology & Geochemistry Theme).

Slope-shelf water mass connectivity and predicted plume dispersal (Oceanography Theme) will provide context to understanding of how processes such as down-slope advection of organic carbon affects faunal composition and standing stock, and will contribute to the design of a monitoring program.

Timeline2013: Tasks 1 (vessel applications prepared in line with scheduling requirements, survey implemented depending on vessel availability, existing data analysed and survey design finalised), 2 (preliminary identification of metrics based on literature and existing data), 3 (target taxa identified, preliminary genomics analyses completed)

2014: Tasks 1 (sorting and identification of faunal samples, processing of sediment samples), 2 (identification of prospective indicators and metrics), 3 (genomics analyses advanced)

2015: Tasks 1 (survey implemented depending on vessel availability, complete sorting and identification of all faunal samples), 2 (further development and testing of metrics for indicators), 3 (genomics analyses completed, predictive spatial analyses developed)

2016: Tasks 1 (analysis of all data using identified metrics, lodge all data and metadata in appropriate repositories, produce final outreach materials), 2 (complete all analyses with shortlisted metrics and provide recommendations on their suitability for any ongoing monitoring), 3 (genomics analyses integrated, predictive models applied to all data, integration with Task 2)

Outputs & OutcomesOutputs

Progress report following voyage(s). Quantitative benthic ecological characterisations of the BP lease areas and

surrounds, and an optimised monitoring design that can be implemented for ongoing production activities.

Scientific and outreach materials (including maps and high resolution seabed imagery).

Predictive model(s) for determining likely characteristics of benthic assemblages at unsurveyed sites within the study area.

Outcomes The ability to understand and monitor the potential future impacts of oil and gas

exploration and/or production on the structure of deep benthic biological communities, including within the GAB Marine Park.

The ability to implement a monitoring program based on leading-edge and cost-effective techniques that are consistent with an Australian national standard.

CVs & Selected PublicationsDr Alan Williams is a Research Scientist with CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research. He develops and manages a portfolio of research projects concerned with understanding the biology, ecology and spatial structure of marine ecosystems, and the ecological impacts of

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human activities - with a focus on the deep ocean. His contributions to research include development of effective deep ocean sampling tools, and design and implementation of large multidisciplinary scientific voyages. His research has uptake in national-scale biodiversity conservation processes and ecosystem based fisheries management for a variety of government and non-government clients including the oil and gas industry. His work contributes to policy setting, including for international biodiversity conservation, risk management and eco-certification programs. He has contributed to the authorship of 76 scientific paper and 45 client reports.

Selected publicationsDunstan, P.K., Althaus F., Williams, A., and Bax, N.J. (2012). Characterising and predicting benthic biodiversity for conservation planning in deepwater environments. PLoS One 7, 1-11.

Williams, A., Dowdney, J., Smith, A.D.M., Hobday, A.J., and Fuller M. (2011). Evaluating impacts of fishing on benthic habitats: a risk assessment framework applied to Australian fisheries. Fisheries Research 112, 154-167.

Thresher R.E., Adkins J., Fallon S.J., Gowlett-Holmes K., Althaus F., and Williams, A. (2011). Extraordinarily high biomass in a benthic community on Southern Ocean seamounts. Nature - Scientific Reports 1, 1-5.

Przeslawski, R., Williams, A., Ward, T., Sorokin, S., Currie, D., and Althaus, F. (2011). The utility of a seascape habitat classification system as a surrogate of community structure. ICES Journal of Marine Science 58, 959-969.

Williams, A., Schlacher, T.A., Rowden, A.A., Althaus, F., Clark, M.R., Bowden, D.A., Stewart, R., Bax, N.J., Consalvey, M., and Kloser, R.J. (2010). Seamount megabenthic assemblages fail to recover from trawling impacts. Marine Ecology 31, 183-199.

Dr Jason Tanner is a Principal Scientist with SARDI. He leads a team that provides scientific and technical advice across government, industry and the community on key issues in the management of marine environments. These include developing our understanding about processes that degrade the environment, climate change, developing tools to assess and mitigate environmental impacts and rehabilitate environments, conducting environmental assessments and conducting research on how fished species interact with their environment. His focus is on benthic ecology, and he leads or has led several multidisciplinary multi-institutional programs focused on the ecology of South Australia’s near-shore marine systems. He has published 42 scientific papers, and 48 client reports.

Selected publicationsBierman, P., Lewis, M., Ostendorf, B., and Tanner, J. (2010). A review of methods for analysing spatial and temporal patterns in coastal water quality. Ecological Indicators 11, 103-114.

Bott, N.J., Ophel-Keller, K.M., Sierp, M.T., Herdina, Rowling, K.P., McKay, A.C., Loo, M.G.K., Tanner, J.E., and Deveney, M.R. (2010). Toward routine, DNA-based detection methods for marine pests. Biotechnology Advances 28, 706-714.

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Clancy, D., Tanner, J.E., McWilliam, S., and Spencer, M. (2010). Quantifying parameter uncertainty in a coral reef model using Metropolis-Coupled Markov Chain Monte Carlo. Ecological Modelling 221, 1337-1347.

Wiltshire, K.H., and Tanner, J.E. (2010). Assessment of potential impacts of Alinta Energy discharges into Hospital Creek, upper Spencer Gulf, South Australia. South Australian Research and Development Institute (Aquatic Sciences), Adelaide. SARDI Research Report Series No. 506. 70 pp.

Tanner, J.E., Hughes, T.P., and Connell, J.H. (2009). Community-level density dependence: an example from a shallow coral assemblage. Ecology 90, 506-516.

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Theme 4: Ecology of Apex Predators

PI – Simon Goldsworthy (MISA), Co PI – Campbell Davies (CSIRO)

Objectives1) Provide baseline information on the distribution and abundance of key apex

predators in the Great Australian Bight (GAB).

2) Analyse data on the distribution, movement and behaviour of key apex predators and develop movement and habitat models for these species.

3) Assess the potential impacts of noise sources associated with oil and gas exploration on wild and farmed southern bluefin tuna.

The overall aim of this theme is to synthesise and improve the fundamental understanding of the population ecology, structure and behaviour of key apex predators in the GAB to inform the development of future monitoring programs, risk assessment, management and incidence response.

Knowledge GapsThe Great Australian Bight (GAB) region is an area of high marine conservation significance for the Southern Hemisphere. It has the greatest apex predator (marine mammals, seabirds, sharks and large pelagic fish) densities of any shelf system in Australia, including Australia’s largest feeding area for pygmy blue whales, calving aggregation for southern right whales, breeding and foraging grounds for Australian sea lion and main aggregation area of great white sharks. The region also supports several commercially and recreationally harvested and conservation dependent fish species, including southern bluefin tuna and pelagic sharks (e.g., makos). There are also protected migratory seabirds, such as albatrosses and petrels, fur seals and endemic dolphin populations.

It is unknown what key oceanographic processes underpin prey production and hence the distribution, population structure, foraging locations, movements and migratory patterns of apex predators in the GAB. As such, an understanding of how the behaviour and population structuring of key apex predators respond to spatial and temporal variability in production presents a key gap in our understanding of the region, and hence potential impacts from BP exploration activities.

This theme will also assess the potential impacts of noise associated with oil and gas exploration on wild and farmed juvenile southern bluefin tuna, upon which a significant international commercial fishery and regional economy is based. There is concern that the potential impacts of these sources of noise could change the behaviour and/or impact on the condition of wild and farmed tuna, with subsequent detrimental impacts on the domestic fishery and the monitoring programs for the international fishery.

MethodsBaseline surveysTask 1: Given the limited information on many apex predator species in the GAB, baseline surveys of their distribution and relative abundance will be important in assessing their risk from oil and gas exploration activities, especially for threatened and migratory species where impacts could result in referred actions under the EPBC Act. Surveys will include aerial surveys to determine cetacean distribution and estimate relative abundance, island-based mark-recapture and burrow/nest surveys of key seal and seabird colonies, and pelagic

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surveys of sharks and large fish to characterise their relative abundance and distribution (fisheries-independent sampling/transects).Spatial dynamics of key speciesTask 2: Use existing data for apex predator species and bio-physical correlates to develop habitat and movement models in the GAB. The project will draw on existing electronic tagging and aerial survey data held by MISA and CSIRO on key species. (e.g., Australian sea lions, southern bluefin tuna). Leading techniques will be used to integrate location time-series data from electronic tags and integrate with environmental data to develop movement and habitat models, identify key-hot spots and Areas of Ecological Significance (AES).

Potential impacts of noise on southern bluefin tunaTask 3: CSIRO holds long-term tagging data sets spanning 20 years for juvenile southern bluefin tuna that provide a baseline for pre-oil and gas exploration behaviour (movement, diving and feeding). This “pre-exploration behaviour” will provide a basis for comparison with “exploration behaviour”, to be estimated using acoustic, archival and pop-up satellite tags. Impacts of noise on farmed tuna will be assessed using controlled exposure experiments and acoustic tagging to measure behavioural response; physiological assessments will identify potential tissue damage as a consequence of different noise levels.

WhoMISA: Goldsworthy, Möller, Rogers, Huveneers, Lowther, ParraCSIRO: Davies, Bruce, Evans, Patterson, Hillary, Eveson, Bradford, LandsellBlue Whale Study Inc: Gill, Morrice.Skadia Pty Ltd: PirzlCurtin University: McCauley

Linkages All four tasks will link and use data and outputs from the other themes, in particular

the Oceanography and Pelagic Ecosystems & Environmental Drivers themes.

Timeline2013: Tasks 1 (aerial surveys cetaceans, island surveys seals & seabirds, pelagic surveys sharks & large pelagics), 2 (data integration, modelling), 3 (tagging & noise trials)

2014: Tasks 1 (aerial surveys cetaceans, island surveys seals & seabirds, pelagic surveys sharks & large pelagic, data analysis, reporting), 2 (data analysis, reporting), 3 (tagging & noise trials)

2015: Tasks 1 (aerial surveys blue whales, data analysis, reporting), 3 (data analysis, reporting)

2016: Tasks 1 (aerial surveys blue whales, data analysis, reporting)

Outputs & OutcomesTask 1 Baseline surveysOutputs

Spatio-temporal distributional maps and estimates of relative abundance for key apex predator species; data sets for spatial dynamics analysis

Outcomes Knowledge of distribution and abundance of key apex predators in the GAB

Task 2 Spatial dynamics of key speciesOutputs

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Spatial movement and habitat models for key apex predators; identification of hot-spots and AES; models available for design of future monitoring programs and risk and impact assessments; integrating data from other themes

Outcomes Distribution and predictive habitat, foraging and movement models; identification of

hot-spots and AES

Task 3 Potential impacts of noise on southern bluefin tunaOutputs

Comparison of “pre-exploration” and “post-exploration” migration, surfacing and feeding behaviour of juvenile tuna; a basis for estimating the potential impact on the fisheries independent aerial survey; assessment of the anatomy and physiology of the hearing structures and thresholds in tuna

Outcomes Quantitative baseline for estimating potential impacts of noise associated with oil and

gas exploration Contribution to broader knowledge of role of southern bluefin tuna in the GAB

CVs & Selected PublicationsAssoc Professor Simon Goldsworthy is a Principal Scientist with SARDI Aquatic Sciences where he heads the Threatened, Endangered and Protected Species (TEPS) Subprogram. He specialises in the foraging and population ecology of marine mammals and seabirds, ecosystem trophodynamics, and the mitigation of interactions between protected marine species, fisheries and aquaculture. He has coordinated a number of significant research programs on apex predators in the Great Australian Bight. He has published 85 scientific papers and supervised 18 PhD and 13 Honours students.

Selected publicationsLowther, A.D., Harcourt, R.G., Goldsworthy, S.D., and Stow, A. (2012). Population structure of adult female Australian sea lions is driven by fine scale foraging site fidelity. Animal Behaviour (online first 15 Dec 2011).

Lowther, A.D., Harcourt, R.G., Hamer, D., and Goldsworthy, S.D. (2011). Creatures of habit: foraging habitat fidelity of adult female Australian sea lions. Marine Ecology Progress Series 443, 249–263.

Hindell, M.A., Lea, M.A., Bost, C.A., Charrassin, J-B., Gales, N., Goldsworthy, S., Page, B., Robertson, G., Wienecke, B., O’Toole, M., and Guinet, C. (2011). Foraging habitats of top predators, and Areas of Ecological Significance, on the Kerguelen Plateau. In: Duhamel G and Welsford D (ed), The Kerguelen Plateau: marine ecosystem and fisheries, Société Française d'lchtyologie, Abbeville, France, pp. 203-215.

Goldsworthy, S.D., Page, B., Rogers, P., and Ward, T. (2010). Establishing ecosystem-based management for the South Australian Sardine Fishery: developing ecological performance indicators and reference points to assess the need for ecological allocations South Australian Research and Development Institute (Aquatic Sciences), Adelaide. SARDI Research Report Series No. 529. 173 pp.

Goldsworthy, S.D., and Page, B.C. (2007). A risk-assessment approach to evaluating the significance of seal bycatch in two Australian fisheries. Biological Conservation 139, 269-285.

Dr Campbell Davies is the Research Program Leader for the CSIRO Integrated Marine and Coastal Assessment and Management Program. For the past 6 years he has led the pelagic

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and international fisheries research area. His research expertise includes: spatial population dynamics; monitoring and assessment of marine fish populations; adaptive management and management strategy evaluation; and natural resource management systems and marine policy. He has published over 45 peer reviewed publications and over 60 research reports.

Selected publicationsHillary, R., Preece, A., and Davies, C.R. (2012). Developing a management procedure based recovery plan for Southern Bluefin Tuna. Final Report to the FRDC. 153 p.

Kolody, D.S., Preece, A.L., Davies, C.R., Hartog, J.R., and Dowling, N.D. (2010). Integrated evaluation of management strategies for tropical tuna longline fisheries. Final Report to the FRDC. 205 p.

Prince, J.D., Dowling, N., Davies, C.R., Campbell, R., and Kolody, D. (2010). An empirical approach to harvest policies for east coast tuna and billfish fishery (Australia) using size-based catch rates. ICES Journal of Marine Science 68, 947-960.

Last, P.A., Lyne, V.D., Williams, A., Davies, C.R., Butler, A.J. and Yearsley, G. (2010). A hierarchical framework for classifying seabed biodiversity with application to planning and managing Australia’s marine biological resources. Biological Conservation 143, 1675-1686.

Davies, C.R., Giannini, F., Eveson, P., Barnes, B., Hillary, R., and Begg, G. (2009). Conditioning of the southern bluefin tuna operating model and constant catch projections. CCSBT-ESC/0909/10. Busan, Korea.

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Theme 5: Petroleum Geology & Geochemistry

PI – Andrew Ross (CSIRO), Co PI – Bruce Ainsworth (MISA)

Objectives1) Identify and characterise natural seepage in, and around the vicinity of, the BP

permits in the Great Australian Bight (GAB).

2) Identify the distribution and provenance of asphalites and undertake tar ball surveys to further delineate other possible hydrocarbon leakage points in the GAB.

The detection and effective sampling of hydrocarbon seeps and migration pathways in the GAB will enhance the prospectivity of the basin by providing proof of an active petroleum system. In addition, detailed understanding of the geochemical composition of the sampled hydrocarbons will provide valuable data on the source rock type, maturity and physical properties. This knowledge will help in the pre-drill derisking of particular play concepts.

Knowledge GapsCurrently, no liquid hydrocarbons have been directly measured in the GAB and therefore no active petroleum system is proven. This is despite indications that there are hydrocarbons naturally leaking into the GAB (i.e., asphalite strandings) and the determination of possible hydrocarbon migration routes and accumulation zones within some of the few exploration wells drilled in the basin (i.e., the detection of oil inclusions at low abundance). Generally, there is low spatial coverage of data, in all data sources from swath bathymetry to well samples. There have only been two attempts to determine natural seep areas and these surveys were performed without the availability of detailed 3D seismic data sets and other ancillary data. These studies were performed on the basis of taking 2D data sets and determining possible leakage indicators (deep routed faults with near surface expression). A study which determines the fault leakage risk through a structural and geomechanical evaluation of the interpreted seismic data set is required to understand which of the faults are most likely to be leakage conduits and therefore determine likely areas of seepage at the seabed.

Optional: Fluid inclusion studies have been performed on some of the wells but further studies are required to understand the trapping temperatures and salinities of the inclusions (potential timing of hydrocarbon generation), as well as their fluid compositions.

MethodsSeeps and leakageTask 1: Work with BP team in the Perth and Sunbury offices to synthesise existing and recently acquired interpreted seismic data to develop structural fault framework, stress field analysis, and geomechanical modeling of faults to identify faults which have the highest probability of leakage. Relate these back to observations in the seismic data, such as possible gas chimneys, amplitude anomalies and HRDZs.

Task 2: Work with the BP geohazards team in Sunbury in the assessment of shallow geohazards and benthic features related to the faults or other leakage pathways (considerable overlap with the Benthic Biodiversity Theme). Development of a basin map of potential targets for further benthic study, both for seeps and habitats.

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Task 3: Assessment of available sea surface Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data for the GAB and integration with the underlying geological interpretation and oceanographic data to further delineate possible seepage zones.

Task 4: Development of a detailed seep survey plan and integration into the overall survey plan for the GAB.

Task 5: Reconnaissance (acoustics) survey on platform of opportunity for several weeks with surface water sampling opportunities.

Task 6: Detailed surface sampling and benthic sampling survey (in collaboration with Benthic Biodiversity team). To include, slick sampling, water sampling, water column water sampling, water sampling above possible seepage features, sediment sampling (in conjunction with Benthic Theme), pore water chemistries, and hydrocarbon analysis.

Task 7: Sample and data interpretation and development of understanding of potential leakage and active petroleum system in the GAB.

Asphalites and tar ball surveysTask 8: To further develop an understanding of the provenance of the tar balls and asphalites in the GAB region 2 PhD students will work jointly between MISA/ASP and CSIRO to survey the accumulations of tar balls of the beaches of South Australia, their geochemistry, and probable origin using ocean and geological models.

Task 9: Beach surveys will be carried out by the students and ASP and CSIRO staff using CSIRO developed statistical techniques similar to those that would be used in the beach assessment in the event of an oil spill impacting the shore (e.g., Shoreline Cleanup Assessment Technique). This will not only reduce the field work load but also provide a detailed baseline survey of the abundance of tar balls.

Task 10: Any tar balls and asphalites collected will be analysed using geochemical methods such as GC-MS and the data compared with geochemical data on possible source rocks in the region.

Task 11: Location data will be used in conjunction with ocean, geological (BP) and weathering models to understand the possible emanation points for the tar balls (strong linkage between the Oceanography Theme).

Fluid inclusion studyTask 12: Determination of additional data required and collation of data from various sources (open file, BP data holdings and other sources). Targeted study of fluid inclusions in existing wells for hydrocarbon baring inclusion presence, hydrocarbon composition, and temperature of trapping for calibration of geological exploration models.

WhoCSIRO: Ross, Stalvies, Langhi, Talukder, Strand, Ciftci, Zhang, Crooke, Trefry, Fuentes, KemptonMISA/ASP: Ainsworth, King, McKirdy

Linkages Oceanography Theme – natural seep slicks movement; modelling tar ball and

asphalites distribution on beaches; determination of seep plume tracks in water column and surface.

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Pelagic Ecosystem & Environmental Drivers Theme – understanding of natural organic matter contribution to recent sediments.

Benthic Biodiversity Theme – informing the design of benthic biodiversity surveys, especially maps of natural seeps; chemical system dynamics – understanding chemosynthetic communities using seeps and biodegraders.

Timeline2013: Tasks 1-7 (Seeps and leakage – work program to start in 2012 if stay within BP exploration timelines), 8-11 (Asphalites and tar ball surveys), 12 (Fluid inclusion study)

2014: Tasks 1-7 (Seeps and leakage), 8-11 (Asphalites and tar ball surveys)

2015: Tasks 8-11 (Asphalites and tar ball surveys)

Outputs & Outcomes Structural geomechanical model and map showing faults with possible leakage and

interpretive report. Structural leakage map overlain on geohazard map with areas of highest leakage

potential identified. Structural, geohazard and satellite SAR maps combined with the prominent

oceanographic conditions and the identification of areas with the highest potential leakage.

Detailed integrated seeps survey plan incorporating survey target survey areas, data and sampling plans.

Sample analysis results, shape files, detailed interpretive report. Detailed survey plan, successful beach surveys carried out in accordance with

statistical survey parameters.

CVs & Selected PublicationsDr Andrew Ross is the research leader for the hydrocarbon exploration capability in CSIRO and leads the hydrocarbon sensors and marine geology team. He has expertise in marine science and petroleum geosciences and experience in the development of marine sensor systems, marine surveys and geochemistry. After joining CSIRO in 2004 Andrew has worked on the understanding of fluid migration in basins working on fluid inclusion and geochemical studies. Subsequently he developed the hydrocarbons sensors team in order to develop new sensors and systems to measure hydrocarbons in the marine environment, in order to detect hydrocarbon seeps. His specific research interests are in the determination and characterisation of hydrocarbon seepage in frontier regions using novel survey approaches and technologies. Andrew and the team have had extensive experience in marine surveys. These have been both as part of the oil spill response to the MC252 spill and successful seeps surveys in the Gulf of Mexico with BP and other seep and marine geology surveys in Australia. Over the last two years the team has spent 5 ½ months at sea.

Selected publicationsRoss, A.S., Farimond, P., Erdmann, M., and Larter, S.R. (2010). Geochemical compositional gradients in a mixed oil reservoir indicative of ongoing biodegradation. Organic Geochemistry 41, 307–320.

Myers, M., Pejcic, B., Ross, A., Crooke, E., Qi, X., and Baker, M. (2009). Improvements to ATR-FTIR based chemical sensors for the detection of organic contaminants dissolved in water. IEEE Sensors 1-3, 295-303.

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Pejcic, B., Myers, M., and ROSS, A. (2009). Mid-infrared sensing of organic pollutants in aqueous environments. Sensors 9, 6232-6253.

Coelho, C.E.S., Volk, H., George, S.C., Eadington, P.J., and Ross, A.S. (2008). Comparing the geochemical composition of oil-bearing fluid inclusions and crude oil from a well on a Brazilian marginal basin. Revista Brasileira de Geociências 38, 19-38.

Pejcic, B., Eadington, P., and Ross, A. (2007). Environmental monitoring of hydrocarbons: a chemical sensor perspective. Environmental science and technology 41, 6333- 6342.

Professor Bruce Ainsworth holds the South Australian State Government Chair of Petroleum Geology. He joined the Australian School of Petroleum in 2007 following 15 plus years industry experience with the Shell International Exploration and Production Company and two years as a Statoil and BP funded research assistant at the University of Liverpool, UK. His career has covered all aspects of the upstream petroleum industry from exploration to appraisal, development, production and research. Bruce worked for five years in Shell Research Laboratories and gained practical experience in exploration and production companies around the globe and has work experience of geological systems from 14 countries. He has expertise in sedimentology, seismic and sequence stratigraphy and the application of the inherent uncertainties in these data and interpretations to multiple scenario three-dimensional reservoir modelling. Bruce is currently the leader of the ASP Reservoir Analogues Research Group and leader of the WAVE Consortium which focuses on reservoir heterogeneities in mixed process (wave/fluvial/tidal) sandbodies.

Selected publicationsAinsworth, R.B., Vakarelov, B.V., and Nanson, R.A. (2011). Dynamic spatial and temporal prediction of changes in depositional processes on Clastic shorelines: toward improved subsurface uncertainty reduction and management. American Association of Petroleum Geologists Bulletin 95, 267-297.

Ainsworth, R.B. (2010). Prediction of Stratigraphic Compartmentalization in Marginal Marine Reservoirs. In: Jolley, S.J, Fisher, Q.J., Ainsworth, R.B., Vrolijk, P. and Delisle, S. (eds.), Reservoir Compartmentalization. Geological Society of London Special Publication No. 347, p. 199–218.

Ainsworth, R.B, Flint, S.S., and Howell, J.A. (2008). Predicting Coastal Depositional Style: Influence of Basin Morphology and Accommodation to Sediment Supply Ratio within a Sequence Stratigraphic Framework. In: Hampson, G.J., Steel, R., Burgess, P.B. & Dalrymple, R.W. (eds.) Recent Advances in Models of Siliciclastic Shallow-marine Stratigraphy. Society of Economic Paleontologists and Mineralogists, Special Publication No. 90, p. 237-263.

Ainsworth, R.B. (2005). Sequence stratigraphic-based analysis of reservoir connectivity: influence of depositional architecture - a case study from a marginal marine depositional setting. Petroleum Geoscience 11, 257-276.

Ainsworth, R.B., Sanlung, M., and Duivenvoorden, S.T.C. (1999). Correlation techniques, perforation strategies and recovery factors. An integrated 3-D reservoir modeling study, Sirikit Field, Thailand. American Association of Petroleum Geologists Bulletin 83/10, 1535-1551.

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