theory of change
DESCRIPTION
Theory of changeTRANSCRIPT
Theory of Change: A Blueprint for Evaluation
Presentation Overview
Introduction to Theory of Change
Building a Theory of Change
Why is Theory of Change Important?
Testing competing Theories of Change
Presentation Overview
Introduction to Theory of Change
Building a Theory of Change
Why is Theory of Change Important?
Testing competing Theories of Change
Definition
• Theory of change is an on-going process of reflection to explore change and how it happens – and what that means in a particular context, sector, and/or group of people.
ToC thinking
• Structured way of thinking about change and impact organizations would like to achieve
• Integrated approach to programme design, implementation, M+E, and communication
Theory of Change (ToC)
Causal Hypothesis
Q: How do I expect results to be achieved?
A: If [inputs] and [activities] produce [outputs] this should lead to [outcomes] which will ultimately contribute to [goal].
Presentation Overview
Introduction to Theory of Change
Building a Theory of Change
Why is Theory of Change Important?
Testing competing Theories of Change
Theory of Change: Main Questions
What is the programme?
What outcomes does the programme aim to achieve?
What intermediate steps lead to those outcomes?
What assumptions are associated with each link in the
causal chain?
How can we measure outcomes?
What is the Programme?
Programme Design
Relevance
Target Audience
Social and Political Content
Potential Threats and Challenges
Incentives for
Immunization
Theory of Change: Define the Programme
Immunization Camps
INCREASED
IMMUNIZATION
Theory of Change: Define the Outcomes
Incentives for
Immunization
Immunization Camps
INCREASED
IMMUNIZATION
Theory of Change: Intermediate Steps
Incentives for
Immunization
Parents bring
children to the camps
Immunization Camps
INCREASED
IMMUNIZATION
Theory of Change: Assumptions
Incentives for
Immunization
Parents bring
children to the camps
Immunization Camps Camp
provides immunizatio
ns
Parents value
incentives
Parents trust camps
Incentives paid
regularly
ToC: School-Based Malaria Intervention
Malaria Interventi
on
Assumptions
AssumptionsChildren
adhere to full med regime
Higher Test
Scores
Test accuratel
y measures knowledg
e
Increased School
AttendanceReduced Clinical Attacks
Reduced Asymptomatic Parasitemia
Reduced Anemia
Improved Cognition
Increased Concentrati
on
INCREASED
KNOWLEDGE
Theory of Change Levels
Inputs/Programme
Activities
Outputs
Intermediate outcom
es
Goal
What we do as a part of the programme - deliver, teach, offer loans, etc.
What are the resources used –funds, staff, equipment, curriculum, all materials.
Tangible products or services produced as a result of the activities - usually can be counted.
Short-term behavioral changes that result from the outputs - preventive health habits, usage of tablets.
Long-term changes that result from outcomes – the result of the programme.
Quantitative and qualitative
Standard of comparison (i.e. baseline v. endline, defining “high-quality,” etc.)
SMART
• Specific - Ask (answer) one question at a time
• Measurable - Quantifiable, accurate, unbiased, sensitive
• Achievable - Is this impact realistic? Are the goals attainable?
• Relevant - Is this the most relevant programme indicator given the needs
• Time-bound - Has boundaries. When’s the deadline?
Good indicators
Good Indicators
Does the definition adequately describe our concept?
Can the variable be easily measured?
Can we collect data to measure the variable?
Increased Immunization Coverage
Brainstorm in groups:
• Does the definition adequately describe our concept?
• Can the variable be easily measured?
• Can we collect data to measure the variable?
Log Frame
Objectives Hierarchy
Indicators Sources of
Verification
Assumptions / Threats
Impact(Goal/ Overall
objective)
Increased immunization
Immunization rates
Household survey
Adequate vaccine supply, parents do not have second thoughts
Outcome(Project
Objective)
Parents attend the immunization camps repeatedly
Follow-up attendance
Household survey; Immunization card
Parents have the time to come
Outputs Immunization camps are reliably open; Incentives are delivered
Number of kg bags delivered; Camp schedules
Random audits; Camp administrative data
Nurses/assistants will show up to camp and give out incentives properly
Inputs(Activities)
Camps + incentives are established
Camps are built, functional
Random audits of camps
Sufficient materials, funding, manpower
Needs assessment
Process evaluation
Impactevaluation
What is the best time to create a theory of change?
A. Before commencing an
evaluation
B. Before data analysis
C. During the programme design
D. Before data collection
Before co
mmencing an ...
Before data an
alysis
During t
he progra
mme ...
Before data co
llecti
on
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Presentation Overview
Introduction to Theory of Change
Building a Theory of Change
Why is Theory of Change Important?
Testing competing Theories of Change
WHY IS THEORY OF CHANGE IMPORTANT?
Discussion
Solving the Black Box Problem
Intervention Intervention design/Inpu
ts
Final outcomeNo increase in full immunization
Low immunization rates
Needs Assessment
Black Box
Inputs
Activities
Outputs
Outcomes
Goal
Identifying Theory Failure vs. Implementation Failure
Successful intervention
Implementation failure
Theory failureInputs
Activities
Outputs
Outcomes
Goal
Inputs
Activities
Outputs
Outcomes
Goal
ExampleWhat is it? Components Assumptions Conclusion
Why is Theory of Change Important
For evaluators, reminds us to consider process
For programmers, it helps us be results
oriented
What is the Main Criticism of Theory of Change?
A. Over-simplify the
programme
B. Long-term effects not
considered
C. Unintended consequences
not considered
D. Does not consider that
programme to outcomes is
not uni-directionalOve
r-sim
plify th
e prog..
.
Long-te
rm effects
not co...
Unintended conse
quenc..
Does not c
onsider t
hat p...
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Presentation Overview
Introduction to Theory of Change
Building a Theory of Change
Why is Theory of Change Important?
Testing competing Theories of Change
Testing Competing Theories of Change
Different disciplines have different theories
• Public Health
• Education
• Economics
• Anthropology
• Sociology
• Political Science
Testing Competing Theories of Change
Toilets in Schools
Children missing
school due to waterborne
disease
Children use toilets
Increased School
Attendance
Less waterborne
disease
Girls feel more
comfortable coming to
school
Female dropout
rate decreases
Girls missing school due to lack of toilets
Girls use toilets
Theory of Change: Main Questions
What is the programme?
What outcomes does the programme aim to achieve?
What intermediate steps lead to those outcomes?
What assumptions are associated with each link in the
causal chain?
How can we measure outcomes?