Theory of ChangeTheory of Change

What and So What,What and So What,Examples and OptionsExamples and Options

Irene GuijtIrene GuijtLearning by DesignLearning by Design

For CD&IC Seminar December 3, 2007For CD&IC Seminar December 3, 2007

‘‘Scrutinising Success and Failure in Development: Scrutinising Success and Failure in Development: Institutional Change, Capacity Development and Theories Institutional Change, Capacity Development and Theories

of Changeof Change’’

OverviewOverview

What is it?What is it? Why is it relevant? (and why so Why is it relevant? (and why so

interesting now)interesting now) Some frameworks on theories of changeSome frameworks on theories of change Where do we go with this?Where do we go with this?

What change really means for a sugar cane What change really means for a sugar cane farmerfarmer

Source: Ashish Shah, Source: Ashish Shah, KenyaKenya

green – localpink - national blue – international

the farmer

The Example of ‘Power’The Example of ‘Power’

Everyone talks of power, empowerment, Everyone talks of power, empowerment, rightsrights

But what do we mean? But what do we mean? How we understand power affects the How we understand power affects the

choices we make choices we make Different assumptions about power imply Different assumptions about power imply

different strategies for empowermentdifferent strategies for empowerment

Power Power overover…(domination, control)…(domination, control)

Power Power toto… (agency, capacity to … (agency, capacity to act)act)

Power Power withwith…(solidarity, mutual …(solidarity, mutual support)support)

ToC Commonly Viewed as …ToC Commonly Viewed as …

Logic model – LFA, RBA, ZOPP…Logic model – LFA, RBA, ZOPP…• what do we want to achieve and what do we need to dowhat do we want to achieve and what do we need to do

‘‘Theory of change’ according to Theory of change’ according to Keystone, Aspen, etc: Keystone, Aspen, etc: • vision of changevision of change• pathways of change and indicators of successpathways of change and indicators of success• assumptions (conditions)assumptions (conditions)• but still very like a logic modelbut still very like a logic model

It can (and should) be much more … It can (and should) be much more …

Terminology – An Important Terminology – An Important DistinctionDistinction

Theory of changeTheory of change • how I think ‘history happens’ and why how I think ‘history happens’ and why • overarching assumptions & philosophies that influence overarching assumptions & philosophies that influence

individual visions and understandingsindividual visions and understandings

Theory of actionTheory of action • how the most meaningful contribution can be madehow the most meaningful contribution can be made• an organisation’s or person’s specific role in a theory an organisation’s or person’s specific role in a theory

of changeof change

Veneklasen 2007Veneklasen 2007

Other Terms that Might Be Used (and Other Terms that Might Be Used (and Confuse)Confuse)

Vision of changeVision of change • individual/group ideal or dream of the change being individual/group ideal or dream of the change being

aimed foraimed for

Understanding of changeUnderstanding of change • effect of specific methodologies/approaches (e.g. effect of specific methodologies/approaches (e.g.

empowerment, popular education, organising, empowerment, popular education, organising, lobbying)lobbying)

Veneklasen 2007Veneklasen 2007

What is ‘in’ a Theory of Change?What is ‘in’ a Theory of Change?

A ToC is philosophical, historical, political, A ToC is philosophical, historical, political, psychological, experiential psychological, experiential

Questions in a ToC of pro-poor development:Questions in a ToC of pro-poor development:1.1. Change Change

2.2. StrategiesStrategies

3.3. Constraints, forcesConstraints, forces

4.4. Our role Our role

5.5. The roles of others The roles of others

6.6. Linkages neededLinkages needed

7.7. the ToCs of othersthe ToCs of others

► ► each of these carries assumptions about what each of these carries assumptions about what we value and why – our values, passions, we value and why – our values, passions, beliefsbeliefs

‘‘There is nothing more practical than a good There is nothing more practical than a good theory.’ theory.’ (Lewin 1952)(Lewin 1952)

Articulating ToCs can:Articulating ToCs can:

1.1. bring greater rigour to programme designbring greater rigour to programme design

2.2. lead to more appropriate choice in lead to more appropriate choice in approach based on context and objectivesapproach based on context and objectives

3.3. open up broader range of options for open up broader range of options for change strategieschange strategies

4.4. bring power back into discussionsbring power back into discussions

5.5. help resolve conflicts about choice in help resolve conflicts about choice in strategies based on unarticulated strategies based on unarticulated assumptionsassumptions

►►Better informed, coherent and more Better informed, coherent and more transparent decision makingtransparent decision making

Theories of Change in Theories of Change in DevelopmentDevelopment

various frameworksvarious frameworks • Participatory developmentParticipatory development• Coordination mechanisms Coordination mechanisms • How history happensHow history happens• Rhythm of change Rhythm of change • ComplexityComplexity

in practice, theories intermingle in practice, theories intermingle • but everyone has favouritesbut everyone has favourites

Causal Chain of Participatory Causal Chain of Participatory DevelopmentDevelopment

a common, simple underlying causality a common, simple underlying causality (Blair 2000):(Blair 2000): • more participation more participation • more representation of underprivileged citizensmore representation of underprivileged citizens• more empowerment of these groups to affect laws, more empowerment of these groups to affect laws,

plans, and budgetsplans, and budgets• benefits to allbenefits to all

progressively more difficult to prove progressively more difficult to prove linkageslinkages

Underlying question – Why do we think Underlying question – Why do we think ‘participation of the poor’ is important? ‘participation of the poor’ is important?

Framework 1. Participatory Framework 1. Participatory DevelopmentDevelopment

From (1980s)From (1980s) To (2000 on)To (2000 on) OpportunitiesOpportunities RightsRights BeneficiariesBeneficiaries CitizensCitizens ProjectsProjects PoliciesPolicies ConsultationConsultation Decision-makingDecision-making MicroMicro Macro Macro

Source: John GaventaSource: John Gaventa

Framework 2. Coordination Framework 2. Coordination MechanismMechanism

Hierarchy – change through instruments Hierarchy – change through instruments of powerof power

Individual – change via Individual – change via market forces and rational choice

Egalitarian – change via Egalitarian – change via social capital, trust, community

Ison, Röling and Watson 2007Ison, Röling and Watson 2007

Underlying question – What assumptions Underlying question – What assumptions do we make about the relative do we make about the relative effectiveness of different mechanisms? effectiveness of different mechanisms?

Framework 3. How history Framework 3. How history happenshappens

1.1. unintended consequence of aggregate unintended consequence of aggregate action of many individualsaction of many individuals

2.2. environmental determinism and environmental determinism and technological response technological response

3.3. through different/new beliefs, ideas and through different/new beliefs, ideas and values (culture)values (culture)

4.4. outcome of purposive individual and outcome of purposive individual and collective actioncollective action

5.5. result of structural contradictions in result of structural contradictions in societysociety

Eyben et al 2007, Parker et al 2003Eyben et al 2007, Parker et al 2003

Underlying question – What assumptions Underlying question – What assumptions do we make about how history happens?do we make about how history happens?

Framework 4.Rhythm of changeFramework 4.Rhythm of change

Emergent change: Emergent change: • ‘‘unfolding of life, adaptive and uneven processes of unfolding of life, adaptive and uneven processes of

unconscious and conscious learning from experience’unconscious and conscious learning from experience’

Transformative change: Transformative change: • ‘‘unlearning’ in crisisunlearning’ in crisis

‘‘Projectable’ change:Projectable’ change:• linearly planned activities under relatively stable linearly planned activities under relatively stable

conditions and relationships conditions and relationships

Reeler 2007Reeler 2007

Underlying question – What assumptions Underlying question – What assumptions do we make about the ‘rhythm’ of do we make about the ‘rhythm’ of change? change?

Framework 5. Cynefin - complexityFramework 5. Cynefin - complexity

SimpleSimple: clear cause-and-: clear cause-and-effect; fact-based effect; fact-based managementmanagement

ComplicatedComplicated: cause-and : cause-and effect knowable with expert effect knowable with expert input; fact-based input; fact-based managementmanagement

ComplexComplex: emergent patterns; : emergent patterns; pattern-based managementpattern-based management

ChaoticChaotic: no clear cause-: no clear cause-effect, unknowables; pattern-effect, unknowables; pattern-based managementbased management

Underlying question – What assumptions do we Underlying question – What assumptions do we make about the nature of reality with which we make about the nature of reality with which we are dealing? are dealing?

Core Tension between Values and Core Tension between Values and SystemsSystems

development sector experiences tensions development sector experiences tensions between commitment to principles of between commitment to principles of solidarity and need for observable solidarity and need for observable outcomesoutcomes

two fundamentally distinct social change two fundamentally distinct social change ideas:ideas:• Solidarity, social organisation, long term – complexity Solidarity, social organisation, long term – complexity

approachapproach• Results-based, activities, time-bound – linear cause-Results-based, activities, time-bound – linear cause-

effecteffect

So what? So what?

Each framework implies a question about Each framework implies a question about assumptions we make - on power, assumptions we make - on power, participation, coordination mechanism, participation, coordination mechanism, rhythm of change, societal change forces, rhythm of change, societal change forces, ontology (more or less knowable)ontology (more or less knowable)

Not about choosing a framework (there Not about choosing a framework (there are many more!)are many more!)

Perhaps need to integrate into a set of Perhaps need to integrate into a set of questions to untangle underlying questions to untangle underlying assumptions assumptions

Example 1. Oxfam-Great Britain Example 1. Oxfam-Great Britain (Eyben et al (Eyben et al 2007)2007)

1.1. Diffusion-of-innovation Diffusion-of-innovation ignores power, ‘follow the leader’ignores power, ‘follow the leader’

2.2. Archetypes of social change pathwayArchetypes of social change pathway the ladder; enlightened elites; people in the streets; a the ladder; enlightened elites; people in the streets; a

good example; shock to the system; follow the leader; good example; shock to the system; follow the leader; the power of belief; good old-fashioned democracythe power of belief; good old-fashioned democracy

still imply linearitystill imply linearity

3.3. Complexity of changeComplexity of change

4.4. Western models of ‘how history Western models of ‘how history happens’happens’

Oxfam International Oxfam International (ibid)(ibid)

‘‘change theory discussions’ by OI global change theory discussions’ by OI global labour rights team – seeking to improve labour rights team – seeking to improve labour standardslabour standards

identified strengths/weaknesses of three identified strengths/weaknesses of three strategies to assess relative effectiveness strategies to assess relative effectiveness and synergy:and synergy:• advocacy with national governments – legal changes advocacy with national governments – legal changes • consumer campaigns – industrial policy changesconsumer campaigns – industrial policy changes• support local workers’ organisations and trade unionssupport local workers’ organisations and trade unions

a fourth strategy emerged (media) in a fourth strategy emerged (media) in practicepractice

now developing in-situ ‘change strategies’ now developing in-situ ‘change strategies’ as an explicit complementary mixas an explicit complementary mix

Example 2. Fair Trade for Economic Example 2. Fair Trade for Economic EmpowermentEmpowerment

Theory of change – increasing producer Theory of change – increasing producer power? power? • First a viable business or first a solid social First a viable business or first a solid social

organisation?organisation?• Women as labourers and gender equal impact will Women as labourers and gender equal impact will

ensueensue

Theory of change – creating demand?Theory of change – creating demand?• Niche product and ‘pure’Niche product and ‘pure’• Mainstream uptake and ‘diluted’Mainstream uptake and ‘diluted’

Organisational strategic choices Organisational strategic choices • Where does emphasis (need to) lie at what point? Where does emphasis (need to) lie at what point? • What is compromised as a result? What is compromised as a result?

Fad or Fundamental?Fad or Fundamental?

Shift towards institutional transformation Shift towards institutional transformation as purpose of development – either as as purpose of development – either as means or end in itselfmeans or end in itself

NGOs engaging in new domains: policy NGOs engaging in new domains: policy influencing, advocacy, dialogue, conflict influencing, advocacy, dialogue, conflict resolutionresolution• Unproven strategiesUnproven strategies• Hard to show results (or no clear results)Hard to show results (or no clear results)• Need to articulate underlying assumptionsNeed to articulate underlying assumptions• Decontextualised lesson learning ineffectiveDecontextualised lesson learning ineffective

Echoes in the business sector – EBOs at Echoes in the business sector – EBOs at IBMIBM

Reclaiming Theory (of Change) for Reclaiming Theory (of Change) for PracticePractice

Four core challengesFour core challenges1.1. articulating underlying assumptions to come to a clear articulating underlying assumptions to come to a clear

ToC (in a manageable way – you can’t focus on ToC (in a manageable way – you can’t focus on allall assumptions)assumptions)

2.2. aligning espoused theory (the official story) with aligning espoused theory (the official story) with theory in use (the messy reality) theory in use (the messy reality)

3.3. aligning theories and the bureaucracies that manage aligning theories and the bureaucracies that manage change processes change processes

4.4. reconciling diverse ToCs in a group, between groupsreconciling diverse ToCs in a group, between groups

Trade-offs and Incompatible ToCsTrade-offs and Incompatible ToCs

Personal and organisational actions Personal and organisational actions (strategies, protocols) are guided by (strategies, protocols) are guided by ToCsToCs

Not always compatible, e.g. disconnect Not always compatible, e.g. disconnect between ‘learning’ as a strategic choice between ‘learning’ as a strategic choice and room for learning in M&E protocolsand room for learning in M&E protocols

Assumptions at OddsAssumptions at Odds

“…“…in decision-making at both policy-in decision-making at both policy-making and operational levels, we are making and operational levels, we are increasingly coming to deal with increasingly coming to deal with situations where these assumptions [of situations where these assumptions [of order, rational choice and intentional order, rational choice and intentional capability] are not true, but the tools and capability] are not true, but the tools and techniques which are commonly available techniques which are commonly available assume that they are.” assume that they are.”

Kurtz and Snowden 2003Kurtz and Snowden 2003

Turning to Institutions and Turning to Institutions and CapacitiesCapacities

What institutions do we think need What institutions do we think need changing?changing?

How do we think institutions change? How do we think institutions change? How is ‘capacity’ present in our ToC How is ‘capacity’ present in our ToC

about institutional change? about institutional change? What values, passions, beliefs underpin What values, passions, beliefs underpin

our ideas?our ideas?