there is a great debate going on as to whether we should open more oil drilling off the coasts of...
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VIDEO:THE SECRETS OF OIL
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There is a great debate going on as to whether we should open more oil drilling off the coasts of the United States.
What do you think?
We sh
ould drill fo
r new o..
We sh
ould only extract
n..
We sh
ould only extract
n..
We sh
ould not open any...
39%
22%
6%
33%1. We should drill for new oil
both on and off-shore in the US.
2. We should only extract new oil on US land.
3. We should only extract new oil off-shore.
4. We should not open any new drilling for oil anywhere in the US.
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Off-shore Drilling
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Off-shore Drilling
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Off-shore Drilling
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How Much Is There?
Proven Reserves: Resource that we know is there (90 % chance) AND we can extract it at current prices with current technology.
We can increase Proven Reserves by1) Finding new reserves2) Improvements in technology3) Changes in economic conditions
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Note: We never totally extract all of the energy, it just becomes too difficult to recover after a while.
Unproven Reserves: We think that it is there based on testing/experience.
ORWe know that it is there, but it is too expensive to extract with current technology/economics.
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World Proven OIL Reserves: 2011
Many experts believe thatCanada may actually havereserves as high as 2 trillionbarrels.
Iraq may have more than 360 billion barrels
The US may have an additional100 billion barrels in the Arctic.
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How Long Will It Last ?Rate Equation
Start UsedQ Q
RateTime
Time
Start UsedQ Q
Rate
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This is really a bad approximation because it does not take into account changes in rate of use.
The demand for energy has been constantly increasing, so the rate equation time is probably too long, but still interesting.
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Exponential Growth
Amount of growth depends on the rate of change of the amount with time.
Time
Am
ount
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Doubling Time
In general, if our percentage growth per unit time is P (%/unit time) then the time for our initial quantity to double is DT where:
70 %Doubling Time (DT)
P
Example: If P = 10%/year, then
70 %DT 7 years
10 %/year
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Between 1960 and 1970, US energy consumption grew by 4.5%/yr. This would mean energy use would double in only 70/4.5 =15.5 years!
With a constant rate, if we double our reserves, we double their expected life. With exponential growth, doubling reserves will only add a short amount of time.
Obviously, exponential growth in energy demand CANNOT go on for very long.
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Is It Really Exponential?Prices Matter
An important lesson from history is that energy prices matter a lot.
Before 1973, US energy consumption appeared to be growing exponentially at a rate of more than 4% per year. An exponential growth curve fit the data very well.
These statistics imply that energy growth should have been between 4 % and 4.5 % for many years to come. However, that turned out to be very, very wrong.
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The graph below compares the exponential forecast (based on data from 1947-1973) with what actually happened. The exponential model predicted 88 quads more energy consumption in 2003 than there actually was, an error of 89% (186 quads predicted vs. 98 quads of actual consumption).
The simple exponential growth model looked good during the period before 1973 because energy prices were low and relatively stable. When prices rose sharply, demand dropped as energy users (especially in industry) began conserving energy.
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Which of the following has the most impact on oil prices?
Oil C
ompanies
World
Events
President o
f the Unite
d ...
Congress
25% 25%25%25%1) Oil Companies2) World Events3) President of the
United States4) Congress
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Hubbert Analysis
Works for just about any natural resource. (Not just fossil fuels)
Initially a new resource shows a period of rapid growth. Easy to find, new markets, etc.
As high quality, easy to find resources are depleted, production will peak and then decline.
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Hubbert Analysis
In 1956 Hubbert predicted US oil production would peak in late 60’s or early 70’s.
It peaked in 1970.
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Production will have a “Bell Shaped” Curve.
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Table II-1. Projections of the Peaking of World Oil Production.
Projected Date of World Peak Production
Source of Projection Background
2006-2007 Bakhitari, A.M.S. Iranian Oil Executive
2007-2009 Simmons, M.R. Investment Banker
After 2007 Skrebowski, C. Petroleum journal Editor
Before 2009 Deffeyes, K.S. Oil company geologist
Before 2010 Goodstein, D. Vice Provost, Cal Tech
Around 2010 Campbell, C.J. Oil company geologist
After 2010 World Energy Council World Non-Government
Org.
2010-2020 LaHerrere, J. Oil company geologist
2016 EIA nominal caseDOE
analysis/information.
After 2020 CERA Energy consultants
2025 or later Shell Major oil company
No visible peak Lynch, M.C. Energy economist
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