These slides are part of a Navigator presentation and are incomplete without the accompanying oral commentary.

MRIA PresentationJune 18, 2008

Research in Post Conflict Nations

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Overview

Introduction

Case studiesWest Bank GazaKosovo

Challengeslessons for home and away

Research & trainingusing projects as a teaching tool

Emerging tools

Questions & answers

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Navigator

Research.Strategy. Results.

Research-based strategy firm that works with companies, organizations and governments to solve corporate and public affairs challenges.

At Navigator, we believe research is fundamental to a winning result.

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Our Partner

The National Democratic Institute for International Affairs (NDI)

a non-profit organization working to strengthen and expand democracy worldwide

works with democrats in every region of the world to build political and civic organizations and safeguard elections

3000+ employees in 60+ countries around the world

chaired by former US Secretary of State, Madeleine Albright

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Our Belief

Post conflict communities have taught us lessons ...

about reaching hard to access communities with severe socio-economic challenges

breaking down barriers of culture and language

innovative methodologies for quality control

... that could apply to Canada

Aboriginal communities, new Canadians

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The Environment

"The increasing number of surveys and their frequency, I'd argue hasn't translated into a high quality of good understanding' of Muslims attitude and opinions."    

David PollockWashington Institute for Near East PolicyToronto Star, June 15 2008

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The Environment

"Autocratic regimes in [the Middle East] sometimes lean on surveyors and respondents to yield the results they want."

Prof. Mahmoud EidUniversity of OttawaToronto Star, June 15 2008 10 years of field experience in Egypt

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at the height of the Maoist insurgency in Nepal in 2006, U.S. political researcher Stan Greenberg was hired to do nationwide sampling by an agency of the U.S. government. His local staff were kidnapped by the guerillas

the ransom demand?

his polling data.

they paid, but only with summaries, not the original data or analysis

The Environment

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Case Study: West Bank/Gaza

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Sample Research Objectives WBG

test Palestinian leadership

ballot test preferences for PLC and

presidential elections

explore legitimacy of PA, emergency government,

Hamas

implications of Hamas takeover of

Gaza

strengths/weaknesses of Fateh

and Hamas

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West Bank/Gaza Study

The study24 months, $750,000monthly quantitative, quarterly qualitative Most recent reportstudy of Palestinian Youth conducted in May/June 2008

Quantitativesurvey of 1200 respondents

Qualitative16 focus groups

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Methodological Challenges

Sample completionvery difficult, especially in Gaza

Respondent confidencepeer approved response

Field reporting issuesquality and speed

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Findings[Quant]

Only 17% employed25% male, 8% female,

Unemployment challenges 57% say 'few jobs’27% say discrimination

70% Politically inactive47% do not read newspaper 43% do not use Internet61% intend to vote  

60% Connected to education32% high school23% university5% other

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Findings[Quant]

88% Opposed to religion in politics

73% Opposed to politics in the mosque

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Focus Groups [Qual]

Deeper examination of reasons for political alienation, potential motivating messages

Study of possible alternative communications channels, role models, and message delivery

Consideration of believable 'life choices' messages

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Discoveries

To be useful research needs to operate within a long-term structural framework

Regular sweeps of the same audiences are essential to track a fast moving environment

Quality assessment requires a professional accountable to NDI as well as a supporting local supplier

Reporting to local partners on a timely and transparent basis is essential to credibility and acceptance

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Case Study: Kosovo

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Sample Research Objectives: Kosovo

Political party standings

Favourability of leaders

Identify potential election issues

Viability of various coalitions

Final status of Kosovo

Reconciliation

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Kosovo Study

Annual qualitative review of issues, leaders and institutions

Election year quantitative issues and leader surveys

2003-20082005 & 2008 National election years

No comparable study of public opinionproviders work for embassies, packaged goods and parties but do not publish

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Methodological Challenges

Data collectionreports of fraud in previous studiesperception of bias with local providers

Ethnic divideseparate research project design for Albanian and Serbian communities

Study timingsignificant international events impacting local public opinion happening on weekly basis

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Findings[Quant]

Intention to vote droppingturn out dropping 7-10% each election

President’s popularity overwhelminghis party’s support decreasing

Status quo will not holdsignificant tensions brewing, positive attitudes toward international presence softening

Reconciliationno identifiable space for agreement on future status

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Findings[Qual]

Leaders seen as corrupt but retained high favourability based on other criteria

Corruption is local & int’lsmall scale in schools and hospitals due to underfunding, large scale by foreigners

History of conflictrole in the war dictates national importance

Economicsthe key to progress and reconciliation

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Discoveries

Political party support frozeninternational administration means elections are ‘not real’

Massive change afootsignificant urbanization and changing demography altering the values of the state(let)

Final status overwhelmsno space for domestic issues with Final Status looming, political leaders off the hook

Quality controleverything is political in Kosovo

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How do you do research when ...

The environment is politically unstable ?

when the personal security risk is high ?

when families and individuals might be displaced ?

when national issues trump local and personal concerns ?

when clients, media and society are skeptical of your research ?

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TechnicalChallenges

Quality controlcoping with no street addresses, bad phone numbers, long collection periods and difficult samples

Quantitativefinding partners and quality control measures to protect your data from collection to analysis

Qualitative identifying facilities, recruiters and moderators who can support your project

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ProjectChallenges

Language

Cultural normsdifficulty of dialogue, transparency

Local custom and practicegender, clan/community, ethnicityhierarchygroup dynamics

Biasresearcher’s bias, actual or perceived

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Audience(s)

Donorstrong point of view

Political parties and government(s)hyper-sensitivity to criticism

NGO’s, local media multiple users with diverse agendas

Societyfew established norms for debateintroduce issues important to society, but not debated by elite(s)

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Research as Training

Make key audiences your partnerspolitical leadership, NGO’s, media

Observersto protect against biasto encourage the use of the data independently

Trainingwhat are the limits of the tools ? how can they be used ?

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Emerging Tools

Low cost + broad access

OnlineFacebook in Egypt

SMSelection observation tooldominant mobile phone presencedynamic social network

Emailcommon use of ‘free mail’access to IM and telephony applications

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Lessons Learned

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Lessons for ‘Away’

The truth hurts do they want to know ?

Quality costs time & moneyredundancy and direct int’l participation needs to be built into your project plan

3. Scope & Scale you will need to set a long baseline, use multiple methodologies and accommodate unusually large research objectives

4. Reporting is teachingrole for media, NGO’s and clients

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Lessons for ‘Home’

Special communities need a special approach balance of external and internal research team

Training has a benefitimproved confidence in results and the tool & a higher degree of ownership in the findings

Sample designhomogeneity of lifestyle over region or other cohort

Research | Strategy | Results

British Colonial Building, Third FloorEight Wellington St. E., Toronto, Canada M5E1C5direct 416-642-5000 email crogers@navltd.comfax 416-642-6435 web www.navltd.com

Chad Rogers