thesis defense presentation
TRANSCRIPT
11 November 2009Chris Hippner
Quantitative metrics Spending Employment
Hypothesis: $100 billion United States Dollars 500,000 persons
NOT YET POSSIBLE
ethod does not exist for international comparisons
ssumes: Function, roles, & missions
are different
WRONG FEATURES
1. Common features: Collection/analysis Covert action Counterintelligence
n National wealth v. security concerns?
Cold War Paradigm
Civil-Military Relations
Non-Western
Inconsistent/qualitative variables
Annual reports/disclosers
Domestic requirements
Pro: Quantitative
Con: Irregular reporting
All intel. Components?
Brassey’s Intelligence Yearbook Case study format Different attributes
Intelligence Resource Program Collected data
Design Descriptive research
1. Intelligence spending
2. Intelligence personnel
3. Gross Domestic Product
Population 195 nation-states
Standardizing1. Spending units
▪ US Dollar▪ 2008 = baseline year
2. Personnel definitions▪ Full time equivalents▪ No contractors
DATA RETRIEVAL
Internet Sources
Traditional Sources
Considerations Documents in foreign
languages Webpage credibility
ESTIMATION PROCESS
Spending1. Create ratio
2. Average ratios
3. Apply Personnel
1. Establish similarity
2. Set ranges
3. Create average
4. Apply
Finding Total world intel.
spending = $106,961,604,308.01 US spends most = 65% US proportion of world GDP =
23.5% US spending is disproportion
Finding 20 countries spend 93%
of total
Their GDP = 69% world GDP
175 countries spend
remaining $7.8 billion
Their GDP = 31% world GDP
Top 10% average point-to-
point variation
Top 10% vs. Bottom 90%
Exponential Trend R2 Value = 0.940
Power Trend R2 Value = 0.835
Results (cont’d)
Affect of US on Estimating
Population(US Included)
Population(US Excluded)
Average Spending $548,521,047.73 $164,750,537.67
Standard Deviation $5,389,872,754.45 $576,959,565.88
Ratios for Estimating 2/947 1/442
Percent Difference of Estimates 5.22%
Finding Total world intelligence
employment =
1,130,104 Russia spends =
$18,902.70 per person US spends = $520,833 per
person
Total: 1,130,104
World814,10472%
= Top Intelligence Employers
Top 20 employers = 61% of total
Bottom 175 employer = 39% of total
Interesting… Top intel. spenders ≠ top
intel. employers Only 6 countries are both
= Top Intelligence Spender and Employer
Found 246 different intel. agencies
Average intel. agency per country = 1.28
Financial intel. units generally excluded
CRITIQUE
Search methods Alternative estimations
methods Intel. spending &
Employment Assumed linear Relationship
FUTURE RESEARCH
Continuous Regular reporting
Intel. spending & employment relationship
Employment components Analysts, Linguists, support
staff
Contact:Chris Hippner