Thinking in Terms of Social-Ecological Systems: Connecting climate change impacts to human communities

Miranda H. MockrinRocky Mountain Research StationUSDA Forest ServiceFort Collins, CO

Workshop on Forest Community Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity in the Context of Climate ChangeNovember 7-10 2011, Lubrecht Experimental Forest, Montana

Social-ecological systems—definitions and history•Combines ecosystems and social science

to address the linked ways that social systems and ecology interact

•Emerged from Stockholm Resilience Center, always linked to resilience as a concept

•Same as ‘coupled human-natural systems’

Social-ecological systems—definitions and history•“We hold the view that social and

ecological systems are in fact linked, and that the delineation between social and natural systems is artificial and arbitrary”

Berkes et al. 2003. Navigating social-ecological systems: building resilience for complexity and change. Cambridge University Press. 393 pp.

Social-ecological systems—definitions and history•When separated, in the past,

▫social science sometimes focused solely on human interactions, with environmental context seen as constant or unimportant

▫ ecologists concentrated on ‘pristine environments’ and saw humans as external agents, minimizing institutional and policy context (Liu et al. 2007).

Social-ecological systems—definitions and history•Grew out of systems ecology/systems

approach, with an emphasis on linkages, feedbacks, and thresholds among components.

•Response to classic utilitarian approaches that considered resources in isolation▫e.g., harvesting fisheries with a fixed species-

specific quota▫Classical approach assumed scientific

knowledge/human control could result in desired management outcomes

Social-ecological systems—limitations

•Despite emphasis on joining ecology and social science, usually focused on a natural resource or ecological system/case study

•Questions about these systems/resilience and work with social science (Davidson 2010 Society and Natural Resources)

Examples of climate change & SES•Chapin et al. 2006. Policy strategies to

address sustainability of Alaskan boreal forests in response to a directionally changing climate. PNAS 103: 16637–16643.

•Leslie et al. 2009. Modeling responses of coupled social-ecological systems of the Gulf of California to anthropogenic and natural pertubations. Ecological Restoration. 24:505-519.

Diagram of a social–ecological system comprising an ecological subsystem (left) and a social subsystem (right), each with a spectrum of controls that operate across a range of

temporal and spatial scales.

Chapin et al. PNAS 2006

©2006 by National Academy of Sciences

Leslie et al. 2009. Ecological Restoration. Fig. 1 Major feedback driving the model of the coupled social–ecological systems. Juvenile and adult fish populations are affected by different environmental and exploitation pressures and are linked through immigration and recruitment. Adults are harvested by the sportfishing and artisanal fleets, while the largely immature individuals are impacted by the industrial shrimp fleet via bycatch. The effort employed by the sportfishing and artisanal fleets are driven by the returns to each respective sector

Social-Ecological Systems & USFS•Southern Forest Futures Project•Resources Product Assesssment

Social-Ecological Systems & USFS•Southern Forest Futures Project

▫Forecasting probable changes in southern forests between 2010 and 2060.

▫Presents a range of futures or scenarios of the South’s forests Influences such as urbanization, bioenergy, climate

change, land ownership changes, and invasive species.

Goal: inform land management and policy by providing these forecasts about potential long-term change in forests of the 13 southern states.

Forest• Wood Products

• Condition

Range• Forage Supply

• Condition

Carbon• Sequestration

Water• Supply

• Vulnerability

Wildlife• Climate Stress

• Bird Diversity

Recreation• Participation

• Days of Activity

Landscape Pattern• Fragmentation

• Edge

2010 RPA Scenario Analysis and Modeling Systems

Forecasts of Ecosystem Services/Responses

Global SRES Scenarios

Socioeconomic

Bioenergy

Climate

US Scenarios

Macroeconomic

Demographic

Basic Assumptions

Translated/Downscaled

US Forest Sector ModelingSystemGlobal Forest

Products ModelUS Forest Products

Model

Forest DynamicsModel

Land Use Model

Timber Supply

Forest Area

Social-Ecological Systems & USFS•Strong tradition of considering both social and

ecological science in resource assessments▫Emphasis on modeling and ecological

approaches▫Forested ecosystems/resources▫Large spatial and temporal scales

Connecting Climate Change Impacts to Human Communities: Thinking in terms of social-ecological systems

Miranda H. MockrinRocky Mountain Research StationUSDA Forest ServiceFort Collins, CO

Workshop on Forest Community Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity in the Context of Climate ChangeNovember 7-10 2011, Lubrecht Experimental Forest, Montana