May 8, 2018

AAPA CAPITAL PROJECTS SEMINAR, NORFOLK, VIRGINIA

PLAN FOR SUCCESS

RESEARCH TO ASSESS

THOMAS WARD, PE/SE, D.PE

DIRECTOR, US MARITIME PLANNING

TO START WITH...

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"In preparing for battle I have always found that plans are useless,

but planning is indispensable."

Dwight D. Eisenhower

PLANNING ELEMENTS

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➢ Water

▪ Approach Channel

▪ Anchorage

▪ Turning Basin

▪ Harbor Channel

▪ Berth

➢ Marine Terminal

▪ Quay

▪ Quay Equipment

▪ Terminal Equipment

▪ Storage Yard Layout

▪ Gate

▪ Rail Working Yard

▪ Rail Storage Yard

▪ Civil Infrastructure

▪ Telecomm Network

▪ Operating Systems

▪ Power Systems

➢ Port Area

▪ Road Network

▪ Rail Network

▪ Access Roads

▪ Rail Working Yard

▪ Rail Storage Yard

➢ Hinterland

▪ Road Network

▪ Rail Network

▪ Highways

▪ Distribution Centers

STAKEHOLDERS

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➢ Sovereign Agencies

▪ USACE

▪ USCG

▪ Federal Aviation / Airport

▪ Port Authority

▪ Harbor Agency

▪ Pilot Service

▪ Customs & Border Patrol

▪ Air Quality Regulator

▪ Water Quality Regulator

▪ Permitting Authority

▪ Metro Planning Organization

▪ Host City Government

▪ State DOT

➢ Private Enterprise

▪ Vessel Liner

▪ Tug Operator

▪ Marine Terminal Operator

▪ Rail Terminal Operator

▪ Rail Switching Entity

▪ Rail Class I Operator

▪ Warehouse / DC Operator

▪ Trucking Company

▪ Chassis Pool Operator

▪ Support Service Provider

▪ Utility Company

▪ Beneficial Cargo Owner

➢ People

▪ Pilots & Tug Crews

▪ Longshore Labor

▪ Rail Operating Labor

▪ Truck Drivers

▪ Boaters

▪ Neighbors

STA

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1

Approach Channel 2 2 1 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 2 2 2 1 9 5

Anchorage 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 10 1

Turning Basin 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 1 10 6

Harbor Channel 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 10 5

Berth 2 2 1 2 2 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 10 7

Quay 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 7 7

Quay Equipment 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 6 2

Terminal Equipment 1 2 1 1 2 2 1 2 2 2 1 6 5

Storage Yard Layout 2 2 1 1 2 1 2 1 2 2 6 4

Gate 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 10 2

Rail Working Yard 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 7 2

Rail Storage Yard 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 5 3

Civil Infrastructure 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 3 5

Telecomm Network 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 4 12

Operating Systems 1 1 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 2 6 5

Power Systems 2 2 1 2 2 2 5 1

Road Network 2 1 2 2 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 1 1 2 1 8 8

Rail Network 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 2 2 1 1 1 5 8

Access Roads 2 1 2 2 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 9 7

Rail Working Yard 2 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 4 4

Rail Storage Yard 2 1 1 2 2 2 1 4 3

Road Network 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 4 9

Rail Network 2 1 1 2 2 1 2 4 3

Highways 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 2 2 4 6

Distribution Centers 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 6 2

Stakeholder Influence = 2 6 6 1 19 5 6 1 4 6 4 2 4 2 8 6 15 4 6 6 3 10 5 0 4 3 5 5 2 9 1 4

Stakeholder Influence = 1 1 1 1 6 1 0 6 8 2 16 5 6 2 11 1 1 4 3 2 6 1 2 6 4 6 1 4 5 1 3 6

Sovereign Agencies Private Enterprise People

STAKEHOLDERS

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6

WITH SUCH CLARITY...

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What could possibly go

wrong?

“I KNOW JUST WHAT TO DO”

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➢ If you focus on what

seems simple to solve...

➢ ...you’ll likely miss

something important

“WE ARE COMMITTED TO THIS SOLUTION”

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➢ If you commit to a plan

before knowing all the

facts...

➢ ...you may not be able to

back out.

“THE COMMUNITY WILL BUY IN”

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➢ You may not believe in

stakeholders...

➢ ...but they believe in YOU!

“THAT’S NOT MY TURF”

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➢ Just because they don’t

work for you...

➢ ...doesn’t mean you are not

responsible for them.

“THEY’LL NEVER GET THAT BIG”

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➢ “Prediction is hard...

➢ ...especially about the

future” - Berra

YES. AND?

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PO

RT

PL

AN

NIN

G &

IN

VE

ST

ME

NT

TO

OLK

IT

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Measure

• Physical and Operational Performance• Market and Financial Performance• Impacts*• Risk

FeasibilityReasonable

Project Alternatives

Evaluate

• Evaluation Approach• Alternatives Comparison• Recommended ProjectRecommended

Project

Initiate

• Project Context• Alternatives Development and Analysis*• Refinement of Reasonable Alternatives

• Project Goals & Objectives• Data Collection• Stakeholder Engagement

• Existing Conditions• Project Drivers• Project NeedsQuantify

P R O J E C T - S P E C I F I C

Planning

Form

Potential Project

or Emergent Need

Definition

Pro

ject

Pla

n/P

lan

of

Fin

ance

Po

rt P

lan

nin

g an

d In

vest

me

nt

Too

lkit

Fo

cus

Strategize

• Investment Approach• Project Due Diligence• Credit/Debt Profile

Structure

• Business Models• Finance Alternatives• Financial Modeling• Debt Implementation & Management• Public Private Partnerships• Grants • Government Loans

Financing

Financeable Project

Monitoring/Evaluation

Implementation

A MODEST EXAMPLE...

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QU

AN

TIF

Y

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559,000 TEUs in 2017

18% Growth on 2016

CN Mainline

North Terminal: Fairview

South Terminal: Halterm

Harbor Bridges

Rock Cut20m Deep

FEASIBILITY

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HALIFAX TOOK THE TIME TO GET IT RIGHT

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➢ “Leave no stone unturned”

➢ “Assume everything is feasible”

➢ “Bring no preconceptions”

➢ “Draw no conclusions”

➢ Ships, barges, trucks, trains, roads, bridges, rail lines, rail

yards, cruise, dry bulk, cranes, air spaces, tunnels,

trenches, parks, city traffic, intersections, oil docks, tank

farms, navigation, pilotage, tugs, fueling, dray market,

dray costs, capital cost, cash flow, resiliency,

sustainability, private properties, social license to operate

➢ A balanced, feasible solution is now in hand

REMEMBER:

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“They will forget if it is late,They will forget if it cost too much,

They will never forget if it does not work.”

Guy BuzzoniGlobal Container Terminals

INITIATE

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➢ Bayonne Bridge raised to clear 14,000 TEU containerships into Newark Bay

➢ Opens the whole East Coast to these ships

➢ Halifax is Canada’s Atlantic Gateway

➢ MacKay and MacDonald Bridges cannot be raised

➢ Fairview is inaccessible to 10,000+ TEU ships

➢ Only one Ultra Class ship at a time, at Halterm

➢ Without a second Ultra Class berth south of the bridges, Halifax port volume will stagnate, then decline, raising costs for importer and exporters

➢ A new Ultra Class berth south of the Bridges is needed

STAKEHOLDER

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➢ Halifax traffic:

▪ 50% by regional truck

▪ 50% by long-haul rail

➢ All local container traffic at

Halterm, south of the

Bridges, moves via

downtown streets

➢ The truck count is not huge,

but is very visible

➢ Shifting local traffic off of

Halifax’s city streets was a

major criterion

Single Truck Lane

ParkingBicycles

FORM

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FORM

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INLA

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FEASIBILITY

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➢ Dartmouth + Rail Bypass

▪ CAD 1,415 M for 1,250,000 TEUs / year

▪ Issues: Lead time, First cost, Oil Terminal

➢ Halterm East

▪ CAD 654 M for 650,000 TEUs / year

▪ Issues: High capacity, Complex phasing

➢ Halterm South

▪ CAD 423 M for 650,000 TEUs / year

▪ Issues: Point Pleasant Park

➢ Halterm North

▪ CAD 401 M for 650,000 TEUs / year

▪ Issues: Simplicity, Cruise & Dry Bulk displacement

FINANCE

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➢ Conceptual Cost Estimate

➢ Cash Flow Model

➢ Investment Model

➢ Benefit-Cost Analysis

➢ NTCF Grant Funding