thought starters for investing in stock markets

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  • 8/19/2019 Thought Starters for investing in stock markets

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    Financial services:

    Strengths:

    1. Longevity of sector : will be around for next 50 years2. Reason to exist: will be needed as long as there is commercial exchange

    need for loans.!. Si"e of o##ortunity: huge considering $nancial #roduct #enetration is low and

    ex#erience of other mar%ets says that it will only go u# as

    consumerism&instant consum#tion ma%es inroads in indian consumer

    #syche'housing demand to remain strong for years to come(. )rand: #resence over the years #lus bric% and mortar which builds consumer

    con$dence more #sychological but acts as entry barrier for new entrants5. *o china&low cost #roducer threat

    +ea%ness&threat:

    1. *ew form of ban%s: #ayment ban%s small ban%s.2. ,echnological disru#tion: has #otential but the brand and trust of existing

    ban%s should hel# $ght this!. -argins may come down due to increased com#etition o#ening u# on

    economy may lead to other #layers entering(. ,he rural o##ortunity may be ta%en away by S/ ban%s new #ayment ban%s5. *on core activities a#art from lending and ta%ing de#osits have #otential to

    shoc% treasury o#erations derivatives trading. 3ave read that whenever

    ban%s&4s tend to focus on these more it eventually leads to #ain

    Oil and Gas:

    Strengths:

    1. Longevity of sector: will de$nitely be around for next 50 years2. Reason to exist: literally the oil that is needed to run a lot of other sectors

    u#stream and downstream!. *o china threat no software threat(. )rand: S/ mono#oly5. hysical 6: di7cult for any new #layer to re#licate retailing business of

    S/s. 6n the re$ning side reliance en8oys huge scale advantages which

    again cannot be re#licated easily. 9x#loration

    +ea%ness&threat:

    1. 6il demand a big function of ;hina consum#tion2. 6il #rice discovery o#a

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    IT:

    Strengths:

    1. Longevity of sector: will be around for next 100 years2. Reason to exist: will be needed as long as there is commercial exchange

    need for loans.!. Si"e of o##ortunity: huge. Read that the global mar%et is about 1 trillion /S>

    which is largely value added software and indian #lay mostly )6 and low

    end wor% is about 150 bn. ?ust about 1.5@ if that true then the si"e is

    immense for ndian com#anies to grow(. ,he learning curve of indian , com#anies cannot be re#licated overnight by

    any new entrants&countries

    +ea%ness&,hreat

    1. ndian com#anies may 8ust be ha##y with the labour arbitrage and fall behind

    in the value added software business2. ,alent driven business: dearth of good talent&attrition can drive costs higher

    and hence im#act margins

    Automobiles:

    Strengths

    1. Longevity : de$nitely will be around for another 50 years2. Reason to exist: need will go u# as ndia roads length %ee# increasing and

    #eo#le increasingly become mobile #ublic trans#ort can im#act but

    #o#ulation will remain ahead of infra atleast for next 25=!0 years!. Si"e of o##ortunity: big considering #er ca#ita #enetration low also

    ownershi# of a vehicle 2&( wheeler seen as a status symbol more im#

    trigger than utilitarian value(. ndian auto com#anies 2 and ( wheeler have still not evolved on a #roduct

    basis. ,he leader by mar%et share in ( wheelers is the classic low cost

    #roducer with basic design. n ( wheelers you have a mar%et share leader

    and a margin leader who are being challenged with 3onda scooters

    #ersonally thin% the mar%et will move to scooters in the commuter segmentwhereas bi%es will move into niche category=could ha##en over another 10

    years5. etrol&diesel #rices will correct downwards once #rice cuts are transmitted

    thus ma%ing #ersonal trans#ort chea#er than #vt cabs cab fares never go

    down

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    Weakness/threat:

    1. ,hrust on #ublic trans#ort which could lead to lower demand for commute

    vehicles hatchbac%s and scooters&commuter bi%es

    2. olicy changes #ollution threat odd even could im#act demand

    Pharma:

    Strengths:

    1. Longevity : de$nitely will be around till humans live2. Reason to exist: will continue till the human race continues to face diseases

    illnesses etc!. Si"e of o##ortunity: huge currently as #er my understanding most large

    #harma com#anies are focused on mar%ers outside ndia arbitrage on

    generic o##ortunities thus ma%ing it more of a global #lay rather than local(. 6##ortunities in generics will continue to be #ouring in. A#art from that the

    o##ortunity for healthcare in develo#ed mar%ets will be huge as lot of

    mar%ets li%e /SA are loo%ing to cut healthcare costs and