thought starters for investing in stock markets
TRANSCRIPT
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8/19/2019 Thought Starters for investing in stock markets
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Financial services:
Strengths:
1. Longevity of sector : will be around for next 50 years2. Reason to exist: will be needed as long as there is commercial exchange
need for loans.!. Si"e of o##ortunity: huge considering $nancial #roduct #enetration is low and
ex#erience of other mar%ets says that it will only go u# as
consumerism&instant consum#tion ma%es inroads in indian consumer
#syche'housing demand to remain strong for years to come(. )rand: #resence over the years #lus bric% and mortar which builds consumer
con$dence more #sychological but acts as entry barrier for new entrants5. *o china&low cost #roducer threat
+ea%ness&threat:
1. *ew form of ban%s: #ayment ban%s small ban%s.2. ,echnological disru#tion: has #otential but the brand and trust of existing
ban%s should hel# $ght this!. -argins may come down due to increased com#etition o#ening u# on
economy may lead to other #layers entering(. ,he rural o##ortunity may be ta%en away by S/ ban%s new #ayment ban%s5. *on core activities a#art from lending and ta%ing de#osits have #otential to
shoc% treasury o#erations derivatives trading. 3ave read that whenever
ban%s&4s tend to focus on these more it eventually leads to #ain
Oil and Gas:
Strengths:
1. Longevity of sector: will de$nitely be around for next 50 years2. Reason to exist: literally the oil that is needed to run a lot of other sectors
u#stream and downstream!. *o china threat no software threat(. )rand: S/ mono#oly5. hysical 6: di7cult for any new #layer to re#licate retailing business of
S/s. 6n the re$ning side reliance en8oys huge scale advantages which
again cannot be re#licated easily. 9x#loration
+ea%ness&threat:
1. 6il demand a big function of ;hina consum#tion2. 6il #rice discovery o#a
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IT:
Strengths:
1. Longevity of sector: will be around for next 100 years2. Reason to exist: will be needed as long as there is commercial exchange
need for loans.!. Si"e of o##ortunity: huge. Read that the global mar%et is about 1 trillion /S>
which is largely value added software and indian #lay mostly )6 and low
end wor% is about 150 bn. ?ust about 1.5@ if that true then the si"e is
immense for ndian com#anies to grow(. ,he learning curve of indian , com#anies cannot be re#licated overnight by
any new entrants&countries
+ea%ness&,hreat
1. ndian com#anies may 8ust be ha##y with the labour arbitrage and fall behind
in the value added software business2. ,alent driven business: dearth of good talent&attrition can drive costs higher
and hence im#act margins
Automobiles:
Strengths
1. Longevity : de$nitely will be around for another 50 years2. Reason to exist: need will go u# as ndia roads length %ee# increasing and
#eo#le increasingly become mobile #ublic trans#ort can im#act but
#o#ulation will remain ahead of infra atleast for next 25=!0 years!. Si"e of o##ortunity: big considering #er ca#ita #enetration low also
ownershi# of a vehicle 2&( wheeler seen as a status symbol more im#
trigger than utilitarian value(. ndian auto com#anies 2 and ( wheeler have still not evolved on a #roduct
basis. ,he leader by mar%et share in ( wheelers is the classic low cost
#roducer with basic design. n ( wheelers you have a mar%et share leader
and a margin leader who are being challenged with 3onda scooters
#ersonally thin% the mar%et will move to scooters in the commuter segmentwhereas bi%es will move into niche category=could ha##en over another 10
years5. etrol&diesel #rices will correct downwards once #rice cuts are transmitted
thus ma%ing #ersonal trans#ort chea#er than #vt cabs cab fares never go
down
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Weakness/threat:
1. ,hrust on #ublic trans#ort which could lead to lower demand for commute
vehicles hatchbac%s and scooters&commuter bi%es
2. olicy changes #ollution threat odd even could im#act demand
Pharma:
Strengths:
1. Longevity : de$nitely will be around till humans live2. Reason to exist: will continue till the human race continues to face diseases
illnesses etc!. Si"e of o##ortunity: huge currently as #er my understanding most large
#harma com#anies are focused on mar%ers outside ndia arbitrage on
generic o##ortunities thus ma%ing it more of a global #lay rather than local(. 6##ortunities in generics will continue to be #ouring in. A#art from that the
o##ortunity for healthcare in develo#ed mar%ets will be huge as lot of
mar%ets li%e /SA are loo%ing to cut healthcare costs and