thoughts on monitoring, analyzing, and predicting weather on the mesoscale
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Thoughts on Monitoring, Analyzing, and Predicting Weather on the Mesoscale. John T. Snow College of Geosciences The University of Oklahoma Norman, Oklahoma USA Vitoria, Spain 14 July 2003. Outline. Who I Represent – the Oklahoma Weather Center Background – Two-Fold Motivation - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Thoughts on Monitoring, Analyzing,and Predicting Weather on the
Mesoscale
John T. SnowCollege of Geosciences
The University of OklahomaNorman, Oklahoma USA
Vitoria, Spain14 July 2003
Outline1. Who I Represent – the Oklahoma
Weather Center2. Background – Two-Fold Motivation3. Overview of the Advanced Regional
Prediction System (ARPS) – with two digressions
4. ARPS Applications In The Real World5. Decision Tools for Operational
Forecasters and Emergency Managers6. One Vision for the Future
• National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL)
• Storm Prediction Center (SPC)• National Weather Service Forecast
Office• Radar Operations Center (ROC)• Warning Decisions Training Branch
(WDTB)
• School of Meteorology (SoM)• Department of Geography (GEOG)• Center for Analysis and Prediction of
Storms (CAPS)• Oklahoma Climatological Survey
(OCS)• Cooperate Institute for Mesoscale
Meteorological Studies (CIMMS)• Environmental Verification and
Analysis Center (EVAC)• International Center for Natural
Hazard and Disaster Research (ICNHDR)
• Center for Spatial Analysis (CSA)
2. Background – A Two-Fold Motivation
Why Society Supports A Meteorological Community• Reduce “Nature’s toll” –
provide advance warning of severe and hazardous weather to protect lives, mitigate property losses
• Increase economic returns – provide information to decision makers to reduce losses, improve economic efficiencies, and enhance economic competitiveness
Reducing Nature’s Toll• Severe weather watches and warnings:
– Watch: Forecasted conditions are such that severe weather is expected to occur at a future time over a region
– Warning: Observed conditions indicate that severe weather is occurring or is imminent
• Public response training on meaning of watch/warning and proper response to each hazard is an essential and never-ending task– Requires collaboration of emergencies services,
law enforcement, the media, and schools– Annual events to educate, reinforce, and update– Immediate: Seek shelter (tornado)– Long term: Wise choices (hail-resistant roofs)
Source: NWS Office of Science and Technology
NEXRAD
NEXRAD
Example: Evolution of Tornado Warnings Over Time
Weather/Climate and the U.S. Economy• Over 30% of the $10 trillion US economy is negatively
impacted each year– Thunderstorms, blizzards, heat waves, cold periods, and
hurricanes cause economic losses in the US that average $300 M per week;Agriculture losses exceed $10 B/year;Commercial aviation loses $1-2 B per year due to diversions, delays, and cancellations (one diverted flight costs $150K)
• The cumulative effects of “typical” events exceed those of infrequent but “major” events– About 50% of losses are preventable with better forecasts!– “typical events” may not impact general populace, but have
serious effects on business
• On plus side, weather-based scheduling, managed energy purchases, use of weather-related financial tools, marketing, etc… all add positively to the “bottom line”
POINT: Weather forecasts on right scale, at right time, with stated uncertainties, are of great value to many business sectors and enterprises!
3. Overview of the Advanced Regional
Prediction System (ARPS)
With two digressions
Mission in the area of Severe Weather
SCIENCE: To demonstrate the capability of using computer models to predict high-impact spring and winter weather, especially individual thunderstorms
TECHNOLOGY: To develop, test, and help implement a complete analysis and forecast system appropriate operational, commercial, and research applications
Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS)
ARPS Data Analysis System (ADAS)
ARPS Numerical Model– Multi-scale non-hydrostatic prediction model with comprehensive physics
– Plots and images – Animations – Diagnostics and statistics – Forecast evaluation
– Ingest – Quality control – Objective analysis – Archival
Single-Doppler Velocity Retrieval (SDVR)
4-D Variational
Data Assimilation
Variational Vel -ocity Adjustment
& Thermo-dynamic Retrieval
ARPS Data Assimilation System (ARPSDAS)
ARPSPLT and ARPSVIEW
Inc
om
ing
d
ata
Oklahoma MesonetWSR-88D Wideband
ASOS/AWOS
SAO
ACARS
CLASS
Mobile Mesonet
Profilers
Rawinsondes
Satellite
Lateral boundary conditions from large-scale models
Gridded first guessData Acquisition
& AnalysisData Acquisition
& Analysis
Forecast GenerationForecast Generation
Parameter Retrieval and 4DDAParameter Retrieval and 4DDA
Product Generation and Data Support System
Product Generation and Data Support System
AAdvanced
RRegional
PPrediction SSystem
ARPS was specifically developed for use on the storm-scale (e.g. 3-km and finer resolution)
ARPS was developed entirely at the University of Oklahoma prizing-winning well-documented code
ARPS is available for use for free within the academic research community and is currently used by researchers around the world
ARPS tech support, tailored products, and numerical modeling services for operational applications is provided via Weather Decisions Technologies, Inc.
The Key To ARPS’ Success:
ARPS Data Assimilation System (ADAS)
ADAS assimilates environmental data from all available sources to develop the best possible 3-D view of the atmosphere at the initial time
• Surface networks• Profilers• Radars• ACARS• Satellites
The First Digression:State-wide Surface
Environmental Observing Network
The Oklahoma Mesonet
Oklahoma Mesonet• 2-way radio communications• Solar-powered• Measurements of pressure, air & soil temperature, relative humidity, wind speed & direction, rainfall, soil moisture, and solar radiation• Automated and manual quality assurance of data
Passage of a Winter Low Pressure System
Surface data with overlaid radar mosaic
The Second Digression:
Weather Radar
The need for remotely-sensed observations of the lower
boundary layer for the detection and prediction of highly-localized
weather (and associated phenomena) has prompted a
decades-long effort to develop a new radar technology and
telecommunications techniques
Oklahoma is today the leader in weather radar research, development, utilization, and
education
The Future: National Weather Radar Test Bed (NWRT)
Phased Array Radar (PAR) Shared Mobile AtmosphericResearch and Teaching
Radar (SMART-R)
Center for AdaptiveSensing of the
Atmosphere (CASA)
Collaborative Radar Acquisition Field Test (CRAFT)
NEXRAD:- Upgrades- Dual Polarization
• A collaborative project to demonstrate the real time compression and Internet-based transmission of WSR-88D (NEXRAD) base data
• Philosophy: Leverage existing infrastructures (Internet), public-domain software (Unidata LDM), and secure, low-cost services (56K phone lines)
• Long-term goal: formal implementation for operations, research, and private industry
The Collaborative Radar Acquisition Field Test (CRAFT)
Based on the success of CRAFT, the NWS has recently launched an initiative to build a national network for the real-time archive and distribution of NEXRAD wideband radar data for completion in 2004
End The Second Digression:
Return toADAS and Weather Radar
Unique Capability in ADAS: Assimilation of Radar Data
ARPS is recognized internationally for its capability to assimilate radar data into a numerical weather model
NEXRAD Radar Observations
Forecasts With and Without Radar Data
Moore, OKTornadic
Storm
2-Hour CAPS Computer Forecast Down to the Scale of Counties
WITHWITHOUT
Forecasting High-Impact Local Weather
NWS Model at 40-km resolution
6-hr precip. forecast
valid 1 p.m., 6/25/03
Forecasting High-Impact Local Weather
ARPS at 27-km resolution
33-hr precip. forecast
Forecasting High-Impact Local Weather
ARPS at 9-km resolution
6-hr storm forecast
Forecasting High-Impact Local Weather ARPS at 3-km resolution
6-hr precip. forecast
ARPS is being used operationally in government and several industrial sectors ….
4. ARPS Applications in the Real World
• 3-year, $ 1 million R&D partnership with American Airlines
• Entrée into working with the commercial sector (only 4 years after initial development of the ARPS)
• Developed a real-time forecast system to use at AA’s DFW hub airport
• AA is in process of moving its weather services division to Norman
…. in Aviation
Sample AA Custom Products
• 5-year, $ 10 million R&D partnership with Williams Energy Marketing & Trading for the development of a real-time forecast system to support energy trading • Due to a sharp downturn in the
energy market, the contract was rescinded after 1-year
• Wind Generation initiatives offer many opportunities for new products in support of operations and trading of “green energy” futures
…. in Energy
• Weather Decision Technologies, Inc. (WDT) is a for-profit private company created to commercialize Oklahoma Weather Center technologies
• WDT holds an exclusive license to the ARPS for commercial use
• Provides mechanism for broad application of the ARPS Aviation Surface Transportation Energy Recreation Broadcast Meteorology
…. for Commercial Meteorology
International Applications• Korea Meteorological
Administration is using ARPS operationally to generate regional forecast products
• ARPS is used by a group from the University of Santiago to generate operational weather products over NW Spain
• Plans exist to set up a weather forecast system in Paraguay based on ARPS technology (through WDT)
5. Support for the Operational Forecasters
and Emergency Managers
Decision-Support Tools
Decision-Support Tools (In Canadian French)
Experimental Visualization Tools
Pseudo 3-D Radar Display of one volume scan
6. One Vision for the Future
Future Paradigm Option #3(‘private-private enterprise’)
WMO NMS
NCEP • analyses• forecasts
End Users
Private MS Measurements& Forecasting
Enterprise• Measurement cos .• Forecasting cos .
• Wx derivatives cos .?• Other cos .??
Core Entity is a private, multi-company enterprise
SYNOPTICOBSERVATIONS:• WMO• NWS• FAA; UCG• Vaisala/GAI ($)
GTS
Note: Numerous sub - options are possible, ranging from one each measurement and forecast companies to multiple companies + other value - added entities
feedback
Courtesy of Walter Dabberdt, 2003
John T. SnowDean, College of GeosciencesThe University of Oklahoma
Sarkeys Energy Center, Suite 710100 E. Boyd Street
Norman, Oklahoma 73019Tel: 405-325-3101
FAX: 405-325-3148E-mail: [email protected]
Web: http://geosciences.ou.eduhttp://www.owc.ou.edu