tiago garcia carneiro ana paula aguiar gilberto cÂmara antÔnio miguel monteiro terrame - a tool...
TRANSCRIPT
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TIAGO GARCIA CARNEIROANA PAULA AGUIARGILBERTO CÂMARAANTÔNIO MIGUEL MONTEIRO
TerraME - A tool for spatial dynamic
modelling
LUCC WorkshopAmsterdam, October 2004
C5J9F6
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Part 1 – The challenges
LUCC WorkshopAmsterdam, October 2004
C5J9F6
WHAT ARE THE REQUIREMENTS FOR SPATIAL DYNAMICAL MODELLING?
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Modelling Complex Problems
Application of multidisciplinary knowledge to produce a model.
If (... ? ) then ...
Desforestation?
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What is Computational Modelling?
Design and implementation of computational enviroments for modelling Requires a formal and stable description Implementation allow experimentation
Rôle of computer representation Bring together expertise in different field Make the different conceptions explicit Make sure these conceptions are represented in the
information system
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f ( It+n )
. . FF
f (It) f (It+1) f (It+2)
Dynamic Spatial Models
“A dynamical spatial model is a computational representation of a real-world process where a location on the earth’s surface changes in response to variations on external and internal dynamics on the landscape” (Peter Burrough)
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The challenges: multi-scale models
Using nested scales
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Old Settlements
(more than 20 years)
Recent Settlements(less than 4
years)
Farms
Settlements 10 to 20 anos
Behavior can be heterogeneous in space and time
Source: Escada, 2003
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Change is a multi-scale
process
(Source: Turner II, 2000)
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Matogrosso State
Mato Grosso State
Land change Amazonia requires representation of: Actors Processes Speed of change Connectivity
relations
Rondônia State
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Agent based models Cellular automata models
(Rosenschein and Kaelbling, 1995)
(Wooldbridge, 1995)
(von Neumann, 1966) (Minsky, 1967)
(Aguiar et al, 2004)
(Pedrosa et al, 2003)
(Straatman et al, 2001)
Modelling conceptions
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Complex Adaptive Systems: Humans as Ants
Cellular Automata: Matrix, Neighbourhood, Set of discrete states, Set of transition rules, Discrete time.
“CAs contain enough complexity to simulate surprising and novel change as reflected in emergent phenomena”(Mike Batty) Simple agents following simple rules can generate amazingly complex structures.
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Complex adaptative systems
How come that a city with many inhabitants functions and exhibits patterns of regularity?
How come that an ecosystem with all its diverse species functions and exhibits patterns of regularity?
How can we explain how similar exploration patterns appear on the Amazon rain forest?
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What are complex adaptive systems?
Systems composed of many interacting parts that evolve and adapt over time.
Organized behavior emerges from the simultaneous interactions of parts without any global plan.
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Emergence or Self-Organisation
We recognise this phenomenon over a vast range of physical scales and degrees of complexity
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Source: John Finnigan (CSIRO)
From galaxies….
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…to cyclones ~ 100 km
Source: John Finnigan (CSIRO)
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Ribosome
E Coli
Root Tip
Amoeba
Gene expression and cell interaction
Source: John Finnigan (CSIRO)
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The processing of information by the brain
Source: John Finnigan (CSIRO)
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Animal societies and the emergence of culture
Source: John Finnigan (CSIRO)
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Results of human society such as economies
Source: John Finnigan (CSIRO)
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Segregation
Segregation is an outcome of individual choices
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Schelling’s Model of Segregation
< 1/3
Micro-level rules of the game
Stay if at least a third of neighbors are “kin”
Move to random location otherwise
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Schelling’s Model of Segregation
Intolerance values > 30%: formation of ghettos
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What are complex adaptive systems?
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Agent
Agent: flexible, interacting and autonomous
An agent is any actor within an environment, any entity that can affect itself, the environment and other agents.
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Agents: autonomy, flexibility, interaction
football players
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Agent-Based Modelling
Goal
Environment
Representations
Communication
ActionPerception
Communication
Gilbert, 2003
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Agents are…
Identifiable and self-contained
Goal-oriented Does not simply act in response to the environment
Situated Living in an environment with which interacts with other
agents
Communicative/Socially aware Communicates with other agents
Autonomous Exercises control over its own actions
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Bird Flocking
No central authority: Each bird reacts to its neighbor
Bottom-up: not possible to model the flock in a global manner. It is necessary to simulate the INTERACTION between the individuals
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Bird Flocking: Reynolds (1987)
www.red3d.com/cwr/boids/
Cohesion: steer to move toward the average position of local flockmates
Separation: steer to avoid crowding local flockmates
Alignment: steer towards the average heading of local flockmates
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Agents changing the landscape
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Part 2 – The building blocks
LUCC WorkshopAmsterdam, October 2004
C5J9F6
WHAT TOOLS DO WE NEED FOR SPATIAL DYNAMICAL MODELLING?
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Nested-CACell Spaces
Components Cell Spaces Generalizes Proximity Matrix – GPM Hybrid Automata model Nested enviroment
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Cell Spaces
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The Nested-CA spatial model
The space local properties, constraints, and connectivity can be modeled by:
- a set of geographic data: each cell has various attributes
GIS
- a spatial structure: a lattice of cellsEach cell has a neighborhood that can be, possibly, different.
- Space is nether isomorphic nor structurally homogeneous. (Couclelis 1997)
- Actions at a distance are considered. (Takeyana 1997), (O’Sullivan 1999)
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An environment is…
…representation where analytical entities (rules) change the properties of space in time.
Several interacting entities share the same spatiotemporal structure.
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Multiple scale model construction
Using nested scales
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Hybrid Automata
Formalism developed by Tom Henzinger (UC Berkeley) Applied to embedded systems, robotics, process
control, and biological systems
Hybrid automaton Combines discrete transition graphs with continous
dynamical systems Infinite-state transition system
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Hybrid Automata
VariablesControl graphFlow and Jump conditionsEvents
Control Mode A
Flow Condition
Control Mode B
Flow Condition
Event
Jump condition
Event
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The TerraLib Framework for Spatial Dynamic Modelling
40
An Example in Hydrology
A water balance Automata
DRYsoilwater=soilwater+pre-evap
WETSurplus=soilwater-infilcp
Soilwater=infilcp
input soilwater>=infilcp
input
Surplus>0
TRANSPORTINGMOVE(LDD, surplus,
infilcp)
discharge
Control Mode
Flow Condition Jump Condition Event Transition
DRY Solwat=solwat+pre-evap
Solwat>=infcap
WET
WET Surplus=soilwater-infilcap
Surplus>0 discharge
TRANSP
TRANSP MOVE(LDD,surplus, infilcap)
Surplus=0 input DRY
input
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Neighborhood Definition
Traditional CA Isotropic space Local neighborhood definition (e.g. Moore)
Real-world Anisotropic space Action-at-a-distance
TerraME Generalized calculation of proximity matrix
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Space is Anisotropic
Spaces of fixed location and spaces of fluxes in Amazonia
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Motivation
Which objects are NEAR each other?
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Motivation
Which objects are NEAR each other?
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Generalized Proximity Matrices
Forest
Deforested
No data
Non-forest-
Water
Roads
100 km
Transamazônica
Br 163
São Felix do Xingu Source:Prodes/INPE
Source: Aguiar et al., 2003
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Generalized Proximity Matrices
Consolidated area Emergent area
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(a) land_cover equals deforested in 1985 (a) land_cover equals deforested in 1985
attr_id object_id initial_time final_time land_cover dist_primary_road dist_secondary_roadC34L181985-01-0100:00:001985-12-3123:59:59C34L18 01/01/1985 31/12/1985 forest 7068.90 669.22C34L181988-01-0100:00:001988-12-3123:59:59C34L18 01/01/1988 31/12/1988 forest 7068.90 669.22C34L181991-01-0100:00:001991-12-3123:59:59C34L18 01/01/1991 31/12/1991 forest 7068.90 669.22C34L181994-01-0100:00:001994-12-3123:59:59C34L18 01/01/1994 31/12/1994 deforested 7068.90 669.22C34L181997-01-0100:00:001997-12-3123:59:59C34L18 01/01/1997 31/12/1997 deforested 7068.90 669.22C34L182000-01-0100:00:002000-12-3123:59:59C34L18 01/01/2000 31/12/2000 deforested 7068.90 669.22C34L191985-01-0100:00:001985-12-3123:59:59C34L19 01/01/1985 31/12/1985 forest 7087.29 269.24C34L191988-01-0100:00:001988-12-3123:59:59C34L19 01/01/1988 31/12/1988 deforested 7087.29 269.24C34L191991-01-0100:00:001991-12-3123:59:59C34L19 01/01/1991 31/12/1991 deforested 7087.29 269.24C34L191994-01-0100:00:001994-12-3123:59:59C34L19 01/01/1994 31/12/1994 deforested 7087.29 269.24C34L191997-01-0100:00:001997-12-3123:59:59C34L19 01/01/1997 31/12/1997 deforested 7087.29 269.24C34L192000-01-0100:00:002000-12-3123:59:59C34L19 01/01/2000 31/12/2000 deforested 7087.29 269.24
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Part I – TerraME main characteristics
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Software Architecture
TerraLib
TerraLib TerraME Framework
C++ Signal Processing
librarys
C++ Mathematical
librarys
C++ Statisticallibrarys
TerraME Virtual Machine
TerraME Compiler
TerraME Language
RondôniaModel São Felix Model Amazon Model Hydro Model
http://www.terralib.org/
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Loading Data-- Loads the TerraLib cellular spacecsCabecaDeBoi = CellularSpace{
dbType = "ADO",host = "amazonas",database = "c:\\cabecaDeBoi.mdb",user = "",password = "",layer = "cellsSerraDoLobo90x90",theme = "cells",select = { "altimetria", "qtdeAgua", "capInf" }
}csCabecaDeBoi:load();
csCabecaDeBoi:loadNeighbourhood(“Moore_SerraDoLobo1985");
GIS
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MODELLING LAND CHANGE IN RONDONIA
Part III: Modeling Examples
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Deforestation
Forest
Non-forest
Deforestation Map – 2000 (INPE/PRODES Project)
Introduction: Rondônia modeling exercise study area
km
Projetos de Colonização
10
8
15
1614
13
Projetos antigosNovos projetosProjetos planejados
km
Projetos de Colonização
10
8
15
1614
13
Projetos antigosNovos projetosProjetos planejados
Projetos antigosNovos projetosProjetos planejados
Federal Government induced colonization area (since the 70s):
Small, medium and large farms. Mosaic of land use patterns. Definition of land units and typology of
actors based on multi-temporal images (85-00) and colonization projects information (Escada, 2003).
Intersects 10 municipalities (~100x200 km).
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Actors and patterns9o S
10o S
9o 30’ S
10o 30’ S
9o S
9o 30’ S
10o S
10o 30’ S
0 50Km
62o 30’ W 62o W
62o 30’ W 62o W
Model hypothesis: Occupation processes are different for Small and
Medium/Large farms.
Rate of change is not distributed uniformly in space and time: rate in each land unit is influenced by settlement age and parcel size; for small farms, rate of change in the first years is also influenced by installation credit received.
Location of change: For small farms, deforestation has a concentrated pattern that spreads along roads. For large farmers, the pattern is not so clear.
Large farms
Medium farms
Urban areas
Small farms
Reserves
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Model overview
Global study
area rate
in time
Deforestation Rate Distribution from 1985 to 2000 - Land Units Level:
Large/Medium Rate Distribution sub-model Small Farms Distribution sub-model
Allocation of changes - Cellular space level:
Large/Medium allocation sub-model Small allocation sub-model
2.500 m (large and
medium)
500 m (small)Large farms
Medium farms
Urban areas
Small farms
Reserves
Land unit 1 rate t
Land unit 2 rate t
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Model implementation in TerraME
Land Unitn
Land Unit2
Land Unit1
...Rondônia
G
Global rate
...
+
+
+
Rsmall
Rlarge
Rsmall
(two types of agentes Rsmall and R large)
+
+
+
Asmall
Alarge
Asmall
...
(two types of agentes Asmall and A large)
Each Land Unit is an environment, nested in the Rondônia environment.
Environment
Agent
Legend
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Deforestation Rate Distribution Module
Newly implanted
Deforesting
Slowing down
latency > 6 years
Deforestation > 80%
Small Units Agent
Factors affecting rate: Global rate Relation properties density -
speedy of change Year of creation Credit in the first years (small)
Iddle
Year of creation
Deforestation = 100%
Large and Medium Units AgentDeforesting
Slowing downIddle
Year of creation
Deforestation = 100%
Deforestation > 80%
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Allocation Module: different factors and
rules
Factors affecting location of changes:
Small Farmers (500 m resolution): Connection to opened areas
through roads network Proximity to urban areas
Medium/Large Farmers (2500 m resolution):
Connection to opened areas through roads network
Connection to opened areas in the same line of ownerships
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Allocation Module: different resolution, variables and
neighborhoods
1985
1997 1997Large farm environments:
2500 m resolution
Continuous variable:% deforested
Two alternative neighborhood relations:•connection through roads• farm limits proximity
Small farms environments:
500 m resolution
Categorical variable: deforested or forest
One neighborhood relation: •connection through roads
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Simulation Results1985 to 1997