ticker district - webinar5

8/19/2019 Ticker District - Webinar5

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All opinions expressed by the webinar participants are solely their opinions. You should nottreat any opinion expressed on this webinar as a specific inducement to make a particularinvestment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. You must

make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies mentioned on this webinar.Before acting on information on this webinar, you should consider whether it is suitable for yourparticular circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial orinvestment adviser.


2/21

! Thursday, March 10th - ECB policy meeting

! Tuesday, March 15th - BOJ policy meeting

! Wednesday, March 16th - FOMC policy meeting

March Madness


3/21

Long TLT

Buy at Trendline


4/21

30 Year Treasury

• Multi-year Pattern Broken• Support from Strong Dollar• Long Term Inflation Subdued


5/21

Long Paypal (PYPL)

! Strong secular trend in e-payments, growing faster than MA and V, trading ata lower earnings multiple.

! PYPL trades 26x expected 2016 eps growth of 15% vs MA & V at about 26xfor expected 2016 eps growth of 3% & 7% respectively

! Q1 earnings on April 27 could serve as a positive catalyst as the companyhighlights growth in peer to peer payments in their Venmo division,

! Ideally a buyer in mid $30s. Stock has been range-bound between $30 and$40 since July 2015 spin from EBAY.

! Investors who believe in the long term story, but are apprehensive to buy atthe high end of the range might consider out of the money put sales to financea little skin in the game...


6/21

Long Paypal (PYPL) with Options

PYPL ($39) Buy the July 33/43 risk reversal for 0.50

• Sell July 33 puts at $1

• Buy July 43 calls for $1.50

Losses: worst case you are put the stock at $33 if stock at or below that levelon July expiration... down 15% from current levels.

Profits: Gains above the $43 strike like stock (minus the .50 paid)

Risk between $33 and $43 is only $0.50


7/21

Long Paypal (PYPL) with Options


8/21

! Granted, it was only an $800M deal, but Kroger’s paid a steep premium forRoundy’s (RNDY) back in November.

! On a number of different metrics, including margins and free cash flow, TheFresh Market is just a better company.

! Kroger’s is coming off a less than exciting 4th quarter report on March 3rd.Full year guidance was nothing to write home about either.

! On February 11th there were some headlines around Kroger for TFM. Thatnoise has abated somewhat. But one has to wonder if that quarter andsubsequent guidance will force Kroger to do something.

! TFM has bounced off the January 20th low of $17.81. That said, the stock isstill well off the all-time highs of $63 or so in November 2012. At 15 timesearnings, TFM is cheap in comparison to some of its peers. That coupled with a16% short interests sets the stock up nicely into earnings sometimes in thenext couple of weeks

Long The Fresh Market (TFM)


9/21

The Fresh Market (TFM)


10/21

! Not a Super Cycle Story ! FCF Generation

! Recovery in Core Business

! China and Currency Drivers

! Balance Sheet

! Technicals

Long Rio Tinto (RIO)


11/21

Iron Ore: Removing Capacity =Small Price Recovery


12/21

Aussie: Breaks Out Despite China


13/21

RIO: Not Looking For Total Re-Rating


14/21

Short Netflix (NFLX)

! Growth slowing ! Free Cash Flow burn

! Competition ! Valuation


15/21

Short Netflix (NFLX)


16/21

Short Russell 2000 (IWM)

The IWM has rallied about 16% from its February lows. The IWM’s peak totrough decline over the last year was about 27%:


17/21

Short Russell 2000 (IWM)

Playing for a failure at the uptrend (which was long term support, nowresistance) could be a high probability play from here:


18/21

Short IWM with Options

IWM ($109) Buy the May 110/90 put spread for $4

• Buy May 110 puts for 4.50

• Sell May 90 puts at 0.50

Profits: up to $16 between $106 and $90 with max gain at or below $90

Losses: up to $4

between $106 and $110,

with max loss of $4

above $110


19/21

Short Euro (long EUO)

• Policy Divergence• Draghi Won’t Disappoint… Again• It’s the New Yen , ie Funding Currency


20/21

Inflation


21/21

! Since there have be large out flows of the Yuan out of China to cover debtrequirements and a market feeling of devaluation of the Yuan against the dollar

do you believe the Chinese government and more importantly it people arebuying larger amounts of gold as a hedge. And this buying is what is causingthe current rise in gold prices? - Jud

! BK. I've been in GTBC for a few months now because I believe theblockchain technology can be a game changer. But what exactly am I owning

with this security?

Is it a possibility that Bitcoin as a currency will eventuallyfade away and only the technology behind it will live on integrated within theMastercards and Bank of Americas of the world? In other words, is there aninvestment play here or will the technology just become commoditizedeventually? - Jason

! People keep saying that the US economy is like the best house in adecaying neighborhood. To me that means that the value of the neighborhoodis going down, and the best house in that neighborhood is not immune to that. Idon't get those predictions of the S&P going to 2100-2300 by the end of theyear. For those of you that are also bearish, and are looking at the 2020-2025range for the market to reverse, what's your counter strategy if it doesn't? -Jorge

Your Questions

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