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TRNG I HC NGN HNGTP. H CH MINH

KHOA TN DNG

BI TIU LUN

TI CHNH QUC T

TI:

KHNG HONG N CNG V NHNG TC NG CA

N TI TI CHNH TIN T 2009 - 2011

Gio vin hng dn: H Thy i

Lp: EC012_1_111_T07

Nhm thc hin: Nhm 7

H v tn MSSV

1. Phm Vn Tin 0301 2509 08812. Nguyn c Huy 0301 2509 02503. Thy Linh 0301 2509 04104. Phm Th Hng Thm 0301 2509 08435. Trn Thc Ngn 0301 2509 0543

TP.HCM, ngy thng nm 2010

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DANH SCH THNH VIN NHM

H v tn MSSV Nhim v

Phm Vn Tin 0301 2509 0881

Tnh hnh n cng ca th

gii, gii php cho n cng

ca vit nam, tng kt bi

Word, lm slide, thuyt trnh

Nguyn c Huy 0301 2509 0250N cng v khng hong n

cng, lm slide, thuyt trnh

Thy Linh 0301 2509 0410Tnh hnh n cng ca Vit

Nam, lm slide thuyt trnh

Phm Th Hng Thm 0301 2509 0843Khng hong n cng HyLp v tc ng n tnh

hnh TCTT, thuyt trnh

Trn Thc Ngn 0301 2509 0543

Khng hong n cng

Ierland v tc ng n tnh

hnh TCTT, thuyt trnh

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NHN XT CA GING VIN

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MC LC

LI M U................................................................................................................ 5

PHN 1: N CNG V KHNG HONG N CNG .......................................... 71.1. N cng: ..................................................................................................................... 7

1.1.1. nh ngha:...................................................................................................... 7

1.1.2. Phn loi n cng:........................................................................................... 7

1.1.3. Ch tiu xc nh tnh trng n cng v ngng an ton n cng: ................. 7

1.2. Khng hong n cng:.............................................................................................. 81.2.1. Th no l khng hong n cng? .................................................................. 8

1.2.2. Nguyn nhn ch yu gy ra tnh trng khng hong n cng: ..................... 8

1.3. Tc ng ca khng hong n cngn ti chnh tin t ..................................... 81.4. V n di con mt ca kinh t hc: ti sao Hy Lp v Ireland khng tuynb v n?........................................................................................................................... 9

PHN 2: KHNG HONG N CNG & TC NG CA N N TNHHNH TI CHNH TIN T 2 NCIN HNH L HY LP V

IRELAND .................................................................................................................... 112.1. Tnh hnh n cng ca th gii thi gian va qua. .............................................. 112.2. Khng hong n cng Hy Lp v tc ng n tnh hnh TCTT: ..................... 13

2.2.1. Thc trng khng hong n cng Hy Lp:................................................ 13

2.2.1.1. T l n cng trn GDP:........................................................................... 13

2.2.1.2. T trng n cng ca Hy Lp: ................................................................... 13

2.2.1.3. Thm ht cn cn vng lai trong mt thi gian di. ................................ 13

2.2.2. Nguyn nhn gy ra khng hong n cng:............................................. 14

2.2.3. Tc ng ca n cng n tnh hnh ti chnh tin t: ............................ 16

2.2.3.1. Xp hng tn dng: ..................................................................................... 17

2.2.3.2. Gi tri phiu gim v li sut tng:......................................................... 17

2.2.3.3. Ct gim chi tiu:....................................................................................... 17

2.2.3.4. u t trc tip FDI: ................................................................................. 18

2.2.3.5. Tc tng trng GDP gim: ................................................................. 19

2.2.3.6. Tht nghip gia tng: ................................................................................. 19

2.3. Khng hong n cng Ireland v tc ng n tnh hnh TCTT:...................... 192.3.1. Thc trng khng hong n cng Ireland: .............................................. 19

2.3.1.1. T l n cng trn GDP: ............................................................................ 19

2.3.1.2. Tnh trng thm ht ngn sch: (theo di hnh 2.13) ................................ 20

2.3.1.3. Thm ht cn cn vng lai......................................................................... 20

2.3.1.4. C cu n nc ngoi v nguyn nhn dn n khng hong n cng. ... 20

2.3.2. Tc ng ca n cng n tnh hnh ti chnh tin t: ............................ 22

2.3.2.1. Xp hng tn nhim b h bc: ................................................................... 22

2.3.2.2. Gi tri phiu gim v li sut tng:......................................................... 22

2.3.2.3. u ttrc tip FDI gim nhanh ng k: .............................................. 22

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2.3.2.4. Tc tng trng GDP gim:................................................................ 22

2.3.2.5. Ct gim chi tiu:....................................................................................... 23

2.3.2.6. Lm pht v tht nghip: ........................................................................... 23

2.4. EU v IMF lm g cu Hy lp v Ireland? ................................................. 24

PHN 3: THC TRNG N CNG VIT NAM ............................................. 26V GII PHP ........................................................................................................... 26

3.1. Thc trng n cng Vit Nam: ........................................................................... 263.1.1. N cng tng lin tc trong nhng nm qua, tim n nhiu ri ro: .............. 26

3.1.2. Vit nam s dng n cng cha tht s hiu qu : ....................................... 27

3.1.3. Thm ht ngn sch ngy cng tng dn n tnh bn vng ca n cng b

gimst: .................................................................................................................. 29

3.1.4. N cng ca Vit Nam xp top cui v tnh minh bch:.............................. 29

3.2. Cc gii php Vit Nam khng ri vo khng hong n cng:..................... 303.2.1. Tng cng nng lc cnh tranh cho nn kinh t: .................................. 30

3.2.1.1. Tng nng sut lao ng: .......................................................................... 30

3.2.1.2. Tng cng cht lng v sc cnh tranh ca hng xut khu v mi

trng u t: ......................................................................................................... 30

3.2.2. Nhm gii php lin quan n vic vay v s dng n cng hiu qu: . 31

3.2.2.1. Gim thm ht ngn sch nh nc (NSNN) nhm hn ch vic vay n:. 31

3.2.2.2.Nng cao hiu qu huy ng vn v s dng vn vay: ............................ 31

3.2.3. Nhm gii php lin quan n vic qun l n cng: .............................. 32

3.2.3.1. Tip tc hon thin cc th ch v xy dng khung php l: .................... 323.2.3.2. m bo an ton, bn vng n: ................................................................ 32

3.2.3.3. Cng khai v minh bch ha thng tin v n cng: .................................. 34

KT LUN .................................................................................................................. 34TRCH DN BIU V S LIU ...................................................................... 35TI LIU THAM KHO .......................................................................................... 45

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LI M U

Khng hong ti chnh ang din ra ngy cng lin tc vi cng mnh v

din bin phc tp gy ra nhng hu qu rt nng n i vi c quc gia cng

nghip pht trin ln cc nc ang pht trin. Bn cnh khng hong ti chnh,

ngy nay ngi ta cn cp nhiu v nghin cu mt cch nghim tc hn mt

loi khng hong mi Khng hong n cng. Tnh trng n cng gia tng lin tc

c cc nc pht trin vt qu s tng trng ca nn kinh t (GDP) gy ra tnh

trng mt kim sot trong kh nng chi tr ca quc gia. in hnh l cuc khng

hong n cng Iceland, Argentina, v gn y nht l mt s nc trong khu vc

EU nh Hy Lp v Ireland. Chnh iu nh ln hi trng bo ng cho cc

nc trn ton th gii phi suy ngh chn chn v tnh trng n cng ca chnhquc gia mnh. Chnh v vy, nghin cu khng hong n cng v tc ng ca n

n th trng tichnh tin t l vic lm ht sc cn thit v cp bch hin nay

khng ch Vit Nam m cn trong khu vc v trn ton th gii.

y l ti kh rng v c tnh bao qut cao. Do , vi kin thc hn hp

ca Nhm 7, chng em trnh by mt s hiu bit khi qut v nhng vn sau:

Phn 1:N cng v khng hong n cng.

Phn 2: Khng hong n cng v tc ng ca n n tnh hnh ti chnh tin t 2

nc in hnh l Hy Lp v Ireland.Phn 3: Thc trng n cng Vit Nam v gii php .

Trong sut qu trnh lm vic mc d nhm c gng. Tuy nhin, c nhng

hn ch khch quan m nhm kh c trnh nn i khi cng c ch sai xt. Mong

c v cc bn nghin cu, ng thi gp bi tiu lun thm phn hon thin

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PHN 1: N CNG V KHNG HONG N CNG

1.1. N cng:

1.1.1. nh ngha:Theo lut qun l n cng s 29/2009/QH12 ngy 17/06/2009 th n cng

bao gm: N Chnh ph, n c Chnh ph bo lnh v n ca chnh quyn a

phng. Nh vy, Cc khon vay nh vay vn ODA, pht hnh tri phiu chnh

ph (trong cng nh ngoi nc), tri phiu cng trnh th hay mt tp on

kinh t vay n nc ngoi c chnh ph bo lnh u c xem l n cng.

1.1.2. Phn loi n cng:

Phn theo ngun vay bao gm:vay trong nc; vay nc ngoi.

Phn theo ch th i vay bao gm:Chnh ph; chnh quyn a phng; doanhnghip v cc t chc ti chnh, tn dng c Chnh ph bo lnh..

Phn theo loi hnh vay bao gm:vay h tr pht trin chnh thc (vay ODA);

vay u i; vay thng mi.

Phn theo thi hn vay bao gm:vay ngn hn; vay trung di hn;

Phn theo loi li sut bao gm:li sut c nh; li sut th ni.

Phn theo ch n v nhm ch n:ch n chnh thc; ch n t nhn.

Phn theo cng c n bao gm:tha thun vay; tn phiu; tri phiu; cng tri

v cc cng c n khc.

1.1.3. Ch tiu xc nh tnh trng n cng v ngng an ton n cng:

Cc ch tiu gim st v n cng, n nc ngoi ca quc gia bao gm:N

cng so vi GDP(ch yu);N nc ngoi ca quc gia so vi GDP;Ngha v tr

n nc ngoi ca quc gia so vi tng kim ngch xut nhp khu..

Ngng an ton ca n cng:

Theo cng trnh nghin cu nm 2010 ca C quan nghin cu kinh t quc

gia M (NBER): khi t l n/GDP vt ngng 90% thn tc ng xu n tngtrng kinh t v lm gim i 4% trong tng trng kinh t ca quc gia .

Theo qui nh ca Khi s dng ng tin chung Chu u, t l n cng ti a

i vi mt quc gia thnh vin l 60% GDP, thm ht ngn sch hng nm khng

c vt qu 3% GDP

Tuy nhin xt mt cch ton din th cn t trong mi lin h vi h thng

cc ch tiu kinh t v m ca nn kinh t quc dn, nht l: tc v cht lng

tng trng kinh t, hiu qu s dng vn... cng nh nhng tiu ch nh: c cu

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n cng, t trng cc loi n, c cu li sut, thi gian tr n cng cn c phn

tch k lng khi nh gi tnh bn vng n cng.

1.2. Khng hong n cng:

1.2.1. Th no l khng hong n cng?

Khng hong n cng l tnh trng n cng tng cao (v n), lm chao o

nn kinh t do s mt cn i gia thu v chi ngn sch quc gia. Nhu cu chi

nhiu qu, trong khi thu khng p ng ni, chnh ph i vay tin thng qua nhiu

hnh thc nh pht hnh cng tri, tri phiu, hip nh tn dng, chi, t dn

n tnh trng n. Thm ht ngn sch ko di lm cho n cng gia tng. N khng

tr sm, lu thnh "li m li con" v ngy cng chng cht thm.

1.2.2. Nguyn nhn ch yu gy ra tnh trng khng hong n cng:

- Vic gia tng mnh chi tiu t ngn sch nh nc, lng v chi ph hot ng

ca b my nh nc, c bit, hu qu ca cuc khng hong ti chnh-kinh

t ton cu va qua buc nhiu nc phi chi rt nhiu khc phc.

- Chnh ph khng minh bch ccs liu v tnh trng ngn sch ca quc gia,s

kim sot chi tiu v qun l n ca Nh nc yu km, khng cht ch, gy tht

thot, lng ph trong u t v chi tiu, t nn tham nhng pht trin(Hy Lp)

- Cc ngun thu (ch yu t thu) tng khng kp vi nhu cu chi( ct gim thu,

trn thu, t tham nhng, hi l, kim sot khng cht ch.)

- Tm l o tng v sc mnh, uy tn quc gia dn n tnh trng vay n trn lan,

u t qu trn, thiu tnh ton.. (in hnh Argentina)

- Chnh ph khng kp thi khng ch hnh vi cho vay thiu trch nhim ca mt

s ngn hng khi nn kinh t tng trng nng to thnh bong bng. Mt khc

cn la chn bao cp cc ngn hng ny khi h b thua l. ( Ireland)

- T l tit kim trong nc thp lm cho thm ht ngn sch ngy cng tng.1.3. Tc ng ca khng hong n cng n ti chnh tin t: ( y xem xti din l n chnh ph)

Khng hong n cng tc ng n nn kinh t thng qua cc ch s sau:- Cn cn ngn sch thm ht

- Gi tri phiu gim v li sut tng

- Lmpht tng.

- Cc doanh nghip hn ch u t, tc tng trng GDP gim.

- Tht nghip tng

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Khng hong n cng, cn cn ngn sch thm ht, Chnh ph cn huy ng tr n buc phi vay ca cng chng bng cch pht hnh tri phiu, vay mn

ngn hng trung ng hoc cu vin cu tr t cc nc khc, t cc t chc

quc t nh IMF...hoc tng thu b p thm ht ngn sch bn cnh phi

thc hin chnh sch tht lng buc bng gim chi tiu. Vic pht hnh

thm tri phiu chnh ph th gi tri phiu chnh ph gim, li sut tri phiu

tng v chnh ph phi nng li sut tri phiu th mi huy ng c ngi mua.

Khi cn cn ngn sch thm ht, ngn hng trung ng s ti tr thm ht bng

cch pht hnh thm tin lm tng khi cung tin gy ra p lc lm pht. Bn cnh , vic ct gim chi tiu, tng thu s lm gim u t trc tip, km

hm kinh t, lm chm tc tng trng (th hin tc tng trng GDP

gim stch s n/GDP tng). Vic gim chi tiu, gim u t s dn n tnh

trng vic lm gim, tht nghip gia tng.

Mt khc, cn cn ngn sch thm ht gy ra s mt lng tin ca ngi dn

v ca nh u t mi i vi cc nn kinh t quc gia khin ng tin quc gia

st gi. iu c th dn ti mt t tho chy vi quy m ln trn th trng

tri phiu v c phiu lm gi chng khon b st gim.

1.4. V n di con mt ca kinh t hc: ti sao Hy Lp v Ireland khngtuyn b v n?

Khi khng hongn xy ra vi qui m ln th mc ch ca ngn hng ch n

v cc nc pht trin l trnh khng bt c mt quc gia no tuyn b v n,

ng thi thng th cc nc con n khng bao gi mun tuyn b v n v chi ph

thanh ton n thng thp hn ccph tn phi chu khi tuyn b v n. Nhng ph tn lin quan ti li ch quc gia:

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Th nht:mt kh nng vay n trong tng lai: khi 1 quc gia tuyn b v n th

ng ngha vi vic t b kh nng vay n nc ngoi trong tng lai: t cc nc

, IMF ,World Bank,..=>tc tng trung kinh t b km hm.

Th hai:gim li ch t thng mi quc t: cc nc ch n s p dng nhng

bin php bo h thng mi trng pht, xut khu b tch thu khi chm n bin

gii quc t, kh khn trong nhp khu.=>khi lng ngoi thng gim.

Th ba:tch thu nhng ti sn hi ngoi: cc ch n s thuyt phc chnh ph phong

ta hay tch thu nhng ti sn ca nc con n cn nm trn lnh th ca nc ch

n.

Gi s ta goi nhng li ch rng t vic v n l NRT cn nhng ph tn linquan ti vic v n l C. Nc con n s cha tuyn b v n khi no Li chrng cn nh hn ph tn v n, ngha l:

NRT < CPhng trnh trn c ngha rt quan trng i vi cc ch n thc thi cc

bin php khc nhau nhm khch l cc con n khng i n tuyn b v n.

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PHN2:KHNGHONGNCNG&TCNGCANNTNHHNHTICHNHTINT2NCINHNHLHYLP

VIRELAND

2.1. Tnh hnh n cng ca th gii thi gian va qua.

Ngy 12 thng 8 nm 1982, chnh ph Mexico ra tuyn b rng nc ny

mt kh nng hon tr $80 t cho cc ngn hng quc t v chnh ph nc ngoi.

y c coi l tn hiu u tin v mt cuc khng hong n quc t.

T trc ti nay vn n cng ch yu tp trung cc nc km pht trin,

ch yu tp trung khu vc M La Tinh v Chu phi. Trong 4 nc lun trong

tnh trng c nguy c v n cao nht l:Mexico, Argentina, Brazil, Venezuela. Bc

sang u th k XXI ting chung cnh bo u tin cng xut pht t mt nhn vtkhng my xa l trong vn ny l vic Argentina tuyn b v n vo nm 2001,

ngay sau khi qu tin t IMF ngng cp tn dng cho nc ny thanh ton cc

khon n.

Nhng t nm 2008 ti nay vn n cng li xut pht t nhng nc pht

trin, nhng nn kinh t hng u th gii m khng my ai ng ti.(Hnh 2.1)

Kinh t th gii va tri qua cn bo khng hong d di nht k t sau cuc

i suy thoi 1929-1933 v ang cht vt hi phc. Th nhng, s hi phc hin nay

ca kinh t th gii rt mong manh, bp bnh v khng loi tr kh nng c th b

suy thoi tr li bi nhiu nguyn nhn, trong tnh trng n cng trn lan nhiu

nc l mt nguyn nhn quan trng.

Trong cc nc ang b cc ni n ln thi nc Mchnh l con n ln

thuc loi hng u th gii vi tng s n ln ti 13.590 t USD, chim khong

93.2% GDP nm 2010. Mi y ngy 02/08/2011 quc hi M thng qua trn n

cng ln thm 2.400 t USD so vi mc c l 14.300 t USD.Chnh v nhng khon

n khng l m Standard & Poors (S&P) (t chc xp hng tn dng th gii) h bc tn dng ca M t AAA xung AA+.

Cnnu tnh theo T l Public debt/ GDP th chng ta s git mnh khi nhn

vo con s ca nht bnl 220,3% v mc thm ht ngn sch 7.04% (nm 2010).

Trn ng t v sng thn hi u thng 3-2011 s gp phn lm tnh trng n

cng ca nht bn thm trm trong hn na, theo mt thng k mi nht ca IMF

th hin ti n cng ca Nht Bn ln ti khong 229% GDP.

Nhng vn n cng ln nht trong t khng hong ny li nm lc

a gini tp trung nhng nn kinh t lu i, pht trin n nh nht trn th

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gii. Xem xt mng li n cng chnh ph th 5 nc Hy Lp Ireland - Ty

Ban NhaB o Nha Italiaang trn b vc ca s phsn. tnh hnh ti t

nht cho ti hin nay nm hai nc l Hy lp v Ireland chng ta s xem xt

phn sau. Theo t The New York Times nh gi: "nguy c thc s nm Ty

Ban Nha v Italia".

Ngy 03/8, cc th trng ti chnh Italia v Ty Ban Nha ng trc mt

"cn st mi" khi li sut vay mn ca chnh ph tng cao ti mc k lc k t khi

lu hnh ng euro:

- Ti Ty Ban Nha, li sut tri phiu chnh ph k hn 10 nm tng ln ti

6,45%, mc cao nht k t khi ng euro c lu hnh u nm 1999

- Cng ngy, ti Italia, li sut tri phiu k hn 10 nm cng ln ti 6,18% ,

cao hn mc c ghi nhn vo ngy 21/7, khi Lin minh chu u (EU)thng bo v k hoch ngn chn khng hong n, trong c gi cu tr ti

chnh th hai cho Hy Lp.

Cuc khng khong n cng cn xy ra nhng nc c nn kinh t ang

pht trin cc thnh m chng ta khng ng ti. con s bo co t l Public debt/

GDP nm 2010 ca n ch l 69,2% nhng theo cc chuyn gia th thc t con

s ny c th ln ti hn 80%. S minh bch v cc con s nhy cm nh vy cn

ng lo Ngi hn Trung Quc, nc ang l ch n ln nht ca M v nhiu

nc c nn Kinh t pht trin. Theo con s chnh thc m Bc Kinh cng b th sn ca chnh ph Trung Quc ch l 1,04 nghn t USD, Mc n ny ch tng

ng vi khong 17% GDP. Tuy nhin, Theo Wall Street Journal, tng ngha v

n ca Chnh ph Trung Quc c th ln ti 75-77% GDP.

Trn y l nhng nc trong thi gian qua c th gii nhc nhiu ti cc

khon n cng ca nht bn. vy th nguyn nhn ca cc khon n cng t u

ra? N tc ng g n tnh hnh cc quc gia? cc hng gii quyt m th gii ,

ang v nn p dng l g? V n rt ra nhng bi hc kinh nghim g cho Vit

Nam? tr li nhng cu hi nhm chng ti xin phn tch cuc khng hong

n cng ca hai nc in hnh nht trong thi gian va qua l Hy lp V

Ireland. T lin h ti tnh hnh ca Vit Nam.

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2.2. Khng hong n cng Hy Lp v tc ng n tnh hnh TCTT:

2.2.1. Thc trng khng hong n cng Hy Lp:im mnh: Du lchl ngun thu ngoi t ch yu ca Hy Lp v ng gp ti

15% GDP. Cc ngnh kinh t khc nh ngn hng,ti chnh,vin thng, sn xutcc thit b cng ngh cao cng pht trin mnh ti Hy Lp. Nc ny cng c li

th v kinh t binvi rt nhiu cng nc su v mt ngnh cng nghip ng tu

hng mnh.

2.2.1.1. T l n cng trn GDP:T lc bt u tham gia s dng ng tin chung chu u (Euro) vo gia

nm 2001 cho n nm 2010, Hy Lp lun vt ch tiu n cng theo quy nh ca

hip hi cc nc thuc khu vc EURO l 60%/ GDP, c lc t l n cng ca qucgia ny ln n 142,8% GDP vo nm 2010, n chnh ph ln n 328,6 t EUR

(nm 2010) vt xa ch tiu m khu vc EURO cho php, hin nay s n ca Hy lp

c tnh ln ti hn 350 t EUR, chim khong 130,2%GDP. (Hnh 2.2)

2.2.1.2. T trng n cng ca Hy Lp:

Ri ro ln nht ca Hy Lp l n vay nc ngoi chim t l ln, c th ln

n 80%. c tnh t l tri phiu do nc ngoi nm gi c th ln ti 80% lng

tri phiu chnh ph pht hnh. Ch n phn ln l cc ngn hng chu u. Cc

nc , Ireland cng trong tnh cnh thm ht ngn sch v n cng cao, nhngkhng b nh gi nghim trng bng Hy Lp (Hnh 2.3).S d nh vy v cc nc

ny c nn kinh ttng i ln, ngn sch ln,kh nng kim sot n trong nc

cao hn, cc ch s v c cu n cng nh cc bin s v pht trin kinh t v M tt

hn hy lp.

Tnh theo thi gian Vi mc vay n nh trn, Hy Lp phi i mt vi khon

n n hn phi thanh ton 8,5 t euro (tng ng 11,3 t la M) tri phiu

chnh ph vo ngy 19-5-2010. Cha n mt nm, mt t tr n k tip din ra

vo thng 3/2011, vi s tin 8.6 t Euro.

Hu ht cc khon n ca Hy Lp l ngn hn, trong , s n phi tr trong

nm 2010 l 16% tng n(Hnh 2.4).

2.2.1.3. Thm ht cn cn vng lai trong mt thi gian di.Hy lp thm ht cn cn vng lai trong mt thi gian di, ngay t khi g ia

nhp vo khu vc ng tin chung Euro, nhng tnh trng thm ht vn khng c

ci thin m c xu hng ngy cng tng, n thng tm nm 2011,Hy Lp bo co

thm ht ti khon vng lai tng ng vi 145 triu EUR. (Hnh 2.5)

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S thm ht cn cn vnglai ca Hy Lp bt ngun t s thm ht thng

mi ca nc ny, cng nh tnh trng cn cn vng lai, cn cn thng mi ca Hy

Lp lun trong tnh trng thm ht, n thng tm nm nay, Hy Lp bo co thm

ht thng mi tng ng vi 2.169 triu EUR. (Hnh 2.6)

2.2.1.4. Tnh trng thm ht ngn sch:Trong nhng nm qua, tnh trng thm ht ngn sch ca Hy Lp ngy cng

gia tng, c bit l trong giai on t 2008-2009. Nm 2009, mc thm ht ngn

sch l 15.4% GDP vt ngng an ton l 5% GDP v vt mc cho php ca khu

vc ng tin chung l 3%/GDP. b p thm ht ngn sch, Chnh ph Hy Lp

vay n di nhiu hnh thc.

Vi tnh trng thm ht ngn sch nh vy, n nm 2010, sau khi thc hin

cc bin php tht lng buc bng, th tnh trng thm ht ca Hy Lp gim

xung mc 10,5%GDP, tuy nhin y cng cn l mt con s kh cao so vi ch

tiu m khu vc ng tin chung ny ra. (Hnh 2.7)

=> Cuc khng hong n Hy Lp bt u vo thng 12/2009 khi th tng mi ca

ng x hiHi Lp, ng George A. Papandreou, thng bo rng ngi tin nhim

ca ng che du tnh trng thm ht ngn sch khng l m nc ny ang mc

phi thm ht ngn sch chnh ph ca nc ny l 12,7% GDP, ch khng phi

3,7% nh chnh ph tin nhim d bo trc .

2.2.2. Nguyn nhn gy ra khng hong n cng:Khng hong n ca Hy Lp xut pht t nguyn nhn chnh l kh nng

qun tr ti chnh cng yu km ca nc ny vi nhng khon chi tiu ca chnh

ph qu ln v vt kim sot. Kt qu l thm ht ngnsch nc ny vt trn

10% GDP v tng n chnh ph trn GDP 142,8% (nm 2010)

Tc ng ca cuc khng hong Kinh t 2007 2008

Cuc khng hong ngun thut thu ca chnh ph hy lp st gim nghim

trng trong khi vn phi chi tiu kch thch nn kinh t phc hi trong suy

thoi, chnh iu ny cng lm bong bng n cng thm phnh to ra.

Tham nhng, hi l c h thng

Nhiu nm qua, cc quan chc, chnh tr gia Hy Lp lin tc phi t chc

v lin quan n tham nhng, nhn hi l. Nhng, cho n nay, rt t ngi b xt x

v kt n v ti danh tham nhng. Chnh iu ny khin ngi ta ngh n mt

iu lut bt thnh vn, l vic, cc quan chc tham nhng, nhn hi l rt

mnh tay, nhng n khi b c quan iu tra pht hin th li rt nhanh v mnhmm tuyn b t chc, v s khng b a ra xt x na.

http://www.vatgia.com/701/sach.htmlhttp://www.vatgia.com/701/sach.htmlhttp://www.vatgia.com/701/sach.html

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Nghin cu ca Daniel Kaufmann thuc Vin Brookings M cho rng c

mi linh cht ch gia tham nhng v thm ht ngn sch. Thit hi m tham

nhng gy ra cho Hy Lp c c tnh vo khong 8% GDP Ni cch khc,

khong hn 50% s thm ht ngn sch nm 2009 ca Hy Lp l do tham nhng m

ra.(VN economy)

Chi tiu cng siu thong

Theo mt ngun tin t B Ti chnh Hy Lp, trong nm 2009, B ny

tuyn dng tng cng khong 27.000 cng chc mi, nhng s cng chc ch n

cng s ngi chi xi nc chim ti 1/3. Tnh n nm 2009, lng cng chc

Hy Lp chim ti 1/4 s ngi lm cng n lng nc ny.. Lng cao,

thng vo cui nm cng cao, cng chc cn c lnh ti 16 thng lng.Nhiu

cng chc Hy Lp c ngh hu trc nm 60 tui vi mc lng hu bng 3/4mc lng khi cn i lm.

Vay tin ... nng lng nhn vin chnh ph v t chc Th vn hi.

Th vn hi Athens 2004 l mt c hi khng th no tt hn Hy Lp gia

tng cc d n s ca mnh v tip tc i vay n thoi mi v mc tiu Th vn

hi.

Vic khng tun th cht ch cc quy nh trong lin minh tin t.

Tht vy, theo Hip c Maastricht, tham gia vo khu vc ng tin

chung, cc quc gia thnh vin phi p ng nhiu chun mc, trong c quy nhmc bi chi ca ngn sch phi nh hn hoc bng 3% GDP, c xem xt trng hp

mcthm ht ang trong xu hng c ci thin hoc mc thm ht ln hn 3%

nhng mang tnh tm thi, khng ng k, khng l mc bi chi c cu; n chnh

ph nh hn hoc bng 60% GDP, c xem xt cc trng hp ang iu chnh.

Theo quy nh ny, Hy Lp cha iu kin tham gia khu vc ng tin

chung chu u vo thng 5-1998. Nhng hai nm sau, ngy 1-1-2001, mc d vn

cha chun, Hy Lp cng c chp thun gia nhp vo khu vc ng tin

chung vi iu kin phi n lc ci thin mc thm ht ngn sch v n chnh ph.

Tuy nhin, n nay, cc rng buc trn vn ch l li ha ca Hy Lp. Bi chi ngn

sch v n nc ngoi khng nhng khng c ci thin m c xu hng ngy

cng tng.

Tc ng tiu cc ca tin trnh hi nhp kinh t khu vc

Qu trnh hnh thnh ng tin chung c chia thnh ba giai on nhm

gip cc quc gia iu chnh nn kinh t theo hng hi nhp ton din v su rng

- hng ha, vn v sc lao ng c t do ha hon ton. Tuy nhin, hi nhp

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cng c mt tri ca n.i vi cc quc gia nh, nng lc cnh tranh yu th y

thc s l thch thc.

Vi mt quc gia c ngun ti nguyn hn hp, li th thng mi thp, nng

lc cnh tranh thp th h khng th xy dng ro cn bo h nn sn xut trong

nc. Hng ha thiu cnh tranh, sn xut nh tr, t l tht nghip gia tng, thu

ngn sch gim, chi an sinh x hi cao.

Ngoi ra, theo quy nh ca EU, cc quc gia c php gi li 25% thu

xut nhp khu hng ha vo EU trang tri chi ph hot ng v 75% cn li

c chuyn vo ngn sch chung ca EU. iu ny c ngha, cc quc gia c v tr

thun li v giao thng quc t: sn bay, bn cng... s nhn c mt ngun thu

c bit t thu nhp khu vo EU m cc quc gia nh hn, v tr bt li hn nh

Hy Lpkhng nhn c; thm ch l khon thu nh trn hng ha nhp khuang tiu th ti nc mnh. Ngun thu ngn sch ca h b suy gim.

Ngoi ra, ti cc nc km pht trin hn nh Hy Lp, trnh ln sng di

dn khi thc hin t do ha lao ng, chnh ph buc phi gia tng cc khon chi

phc li, chi an sinh x hi cho cng dn ca mnh. iu ny gp phn lm gia tng

thm ht ngn sch.

Khng minh bch trong cc con s bo co:

Vo thi im Hy Lp gia nhp Eurozone, c nhng bng chng cho thy

quc gia ny a ra nhng s liu khng trung thc, ECB cng t ra quan ngi vtnh hnh n ca Hy Lp vt xa trn quy nh ca Eurozone, nhng cc nh lnh

o chu u khng phn i. V l do chnh tr, h cho Hy Lp tham gia ng

Euro.

n nm 2004, bng chng v vic Hy Lp cng b s liu kinh t gi mo

c Eurostat thu thp , nhng cc quan chc ca chu u vn tuyn b rng,

vic trc xut Hy Lp khi Eurozone khng phi l la chn ca h v cho Hy Lp

thi gian sa cha. n nm 2007, ECB tuyn b Hy Lp c nhng bin php

khc phc ph hp, v thm ht ca quc gia ny s ch cn 2,6% GDP vo nm

2006 v 2,4% vo nm 2007. y ban cng a ra kt lun rng C quan Thng k

ca Hy Lp ci thin quy trnh lm vic ca mnh v cht lng s liu thng k

ca h tt hn. Tuy nhin, n nm 2009, th mt ln na cu hi v s gian ln

s liu ca quc gia ny li c lt li. Chnh iu ny lm cho cc nh u t

v cc Ngn hng thng mi quc t mt nim tin, t rt vn lm cho nguy c

v n ca Hy lp thm trm trng.

2.2.3. Tc ng ca n cng n tnh hnh ti chnh tin t:

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2.2.3.1. Xp hng tn dng:Ngy 15/6/2010, T chc xp hng tn dng Moodys h 4 bc xp hng

tn dng ca Hy Lp xung mc khng u t v cnh bo, vic Hy Lp gim thm

ht ngn sch s to ra nhiu hu qu xu v kinh t.

Theo hng tin Bloomberg, xp hng tn dng ca Hy Lp b h xung mcBa1 t mc A3. Trong tuyn b xp hng tn dng, Moodys nhiu ln nhc n

nhng ri ro i vi tng trng kinh t bi nhng bin php tht cht ngn sch

lin quan n gi gii cu 110 t EUR (136 t USD).

D c EU v IFM ha hn bm tin nhng hnh nh ca Hy Lp vn

cha c ci thin trong mt cc t chc xp hng c lp, vo 14/7/2011, hng

xp hng Fitch h 3 bc i vi mc tn dng ca Hy Lp t B+ xung CCC,

thp nht trong thang xp hng ca Fitch. L gii cho vic ny, Fitch cho rng cc

chng trnh ti tr m cc t chc ti chnh quc t dnh cho Hy Lp ch n thun

l ti chnh ch khng a ra nhng gii php y v ng rin cy.

Cng theo Fitch , vai tr ca khu vc t nhn trong cc chng trnh ci cch

ti Hy Lp cng cha thc s r rng, trong khi trin vng kinh t v m khng ly

lm chc chn. Chnh v vy, mc xp hng CCC (cn k ph sn) mi c a ra.

Vo ngy 28/07/2011 Standard $ Poors (S&P) nhn nh rng hy lp s ph

sn mt phn sau khi cc quan chc chu u thc y k hoch ti c cu n trong

gi cu tr 2. Chnh v vy S&P h tip hng tn dng ca Hy Lp t CCC xungCC ch trn mc v n 2 bc vi nh gi trin vng tiu cc.

S&P cho bit, vic c cu li n ca Chnh ph Hy Lp c th ni l mt trao

i gy ra hu qu tiu cc v n c nguy c gy thit hi cho ch n.

2.2.3.2. Gi tri phiu gim v li sut tng:T nm 1998 n nm 2011 Tri phiu Chnh ph Hy Lp c li trung bnh

5,21%, t mc cao lch s 11,39 % trong thng 12 nm 2010 v mt mc thp k

lc 3,23% trong thng 9 nm 2005. Li sut tri phiu ca Hy Lp thi gian gn ytng cao v khng hong n cng, cn cn ngn sch thm ht, do chnh ph cn

huy ng vn tr n buc phi pht hnh tri phu. Vic pht hnh thm tri

phiu chnh ph th gi tri phiu chnh ph gim, th hin qua vic chnh ph phi

nng li sut tri phiu th mi huy ng c ngi mua, theo bo co mi nht th

li sut tri phiu ca Hy Lp ln n 11,39%. (Hnh 2.8)

2.2.3.3. Ct gim chi tiu:

ng trc nguyy c v n trong cuc khng hong n cng trm trng hinnay, chnh ph Hy Lp buc phi a ra nhiu bin php tht cht chi tiu nh tng

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cc loi thu nhm ci thin tnh hnh, mc d cc chnh sch m theo cc chuyn

gia th cc chnh sch ny cc k au n, v s khin cho cuc sng ca ngi dn

tr nn kh khn hn rt nhiu, chnh v vy, khi chnh ph Hy Lp a ra cc chnh

sch trn gp khng t nhng l sng phn i t dn chng.

Tng cc loi thu: Trong nm 2011, Hy Lp s thu 2,32 t Euro thu v ln

lt l 3,38 t , 1.52 triu v 699 triu trong 3 nm tip theo. Trong , thu

gi tr gia tng (VAT) s tng t 19% ln 23%.

nh thu vo hng xa x: Nhng mt hng xa x s b nh thu l du

thuyn, h bi v t. S c mt loi thu c bit nh vo cc cng ty lm

n vi li nhun ln, bt ng sn gi tr ln.

nh thu vo mt s mt hng ni a: Thu nh vo cc mt hng ni a

nh nhin liu, thuc l, thcung c cn s tng mt phn ba. Gim chi tiu cng: cc chi tiu trong khu vc cng s b ct 15%.

Gim chi tiu qun s: trong nm 2012 chi tiu cho qun s ca Hy Lp s b

ct gim 200 triu Euro v t nm 2013 n 2015, s ct gim mi nm 333

triu Euro.

Gim chi tiu gio dc: chi tiu cho gio dc cng b ct gim bng cch

ng ca hoc st nhp 1976 trng hc.

Gim chi tiu cho an sinh x hi: trong nm 2011, 1,09 t Euro s c ct t

qu an sinh x hi ca Hy Lp. Tip n, t nm 2012 n 2015 s ct gim

ln lt l 1,28t; 1,03 t; 1,01 t v 700 triu. Bn cnh , tui v hu

s tng t 61 ln 65.

T hu ha chnh ph: chnh ph Hy Lp s tin hnh t nhn ha cc doanh

nghip quc doanh trong c OPAP, Hellenic Postbank, Hellenic Telecom.

Bn cnh cng s bn c phn ti Athens Water, cng ty du kh Hellenic

Petroleum, cng ty in PPC v lender ATEbank v mt s hi cng, sn

bay, ng cao tc, quyn s hu t v khai khong. Sa thi cng chc: trong nm 2011, c 10 cng chc s c mt ngi b sa

thi. Cn trong nhng nm ti, t ln sa thi s l c 5 ngi th s sa thi 1

ngi.

Gim chi tiu y t: trong nm 2011, chi tiu cho y t s b ct gim 310 triu

Euro v t 2012 n 2015 s gim 1,81 triu euro.

2.2.3.4. u t trc tip FDI:

Chnh ph Hy Lp ang thc hin cc bin php tht lng buc bng nhmm bo cam kt gim thm ht ngn sch ca Chnh ph Hy Lp nhn c s

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tr gip t EU v IMF. V thc hin chnh sch gim chi tiu, tng thu nn dn n

tnh hnh u t FDI vo Hy Lp gim mnh.

Nh m t trong th I, trong thi gian 2006-2008 FDI vo Hy Lp lin

tc duy tr mc cao hn so vi giai on nm 2003 - 2005, mc d bin ng.

(Hnh 2.9)C nhiu yu t, chng hn nh ci thin c s h tng, ng mt vai

tr quan trng trong s gia tng ng k khi lng FDI.

Trong nm 2009 tng lung vn vo Hy Lp t 4,5 t Euro, v lung vn

rng vt qu 2,4 t Euro. So vi nm 2008, dng chy FDI vo Hy Lp st gim

21% do hu qu ca cuc khnghong n cng.

2.2.3.5. Tc tng trng GDP gim:Hy Lp qun l t c mt nn kinh t pht trin nhanh chng sau khi

thc hin chnh sch n nh kinh t trong nhng nm gn y, t nht, trc cuc

khng hong ti chnh ton cu 2008-2009. T nm 1998 n nm 2008, GDP tng

dn qua cc nm v t mc cao nht vo thng 12 nm 2008 vi 355.88 t $.

Cui nm 2009, khi khng hong n cng xy ra lm cho cc nh u t lo

ngi v kh nng tr n ca Hy Lp v h t rt vn ra khi th trng Hy Lp

nn GDP gim xung cn 330 t.

T nm 2007 n nm 2010, bnh qun GDP hng nm ca Hy Lp gim dn

v k lc mc thp -6,6 % trong thng 12 nm 2010.(Hnh 2.10)

2.2.3.6. Tht nghip gia tng:Khi nn kinh t ton cu mi thot khi khng hong, bt u c du hiu

phc hi do kt qu ca cc gi kch thch kinh t m chnh ph cc nc chi ra

trong nhng nm gn y, th vic ct gim chi tiu, tng thu s lm gim u t,

km hm s phc hi kinh t, lm chm tc tng trng s dn n tnh trng

vic lm gim, tht nghip gia tng. ng thi vi chnh sch tht lng buc

bng, khin cho tnh trng tht nghip nc ny cng thm nghim trng.

T nm 1983 n nm 2010, T l tht nghip ca Hy Lp trung bnh 9,43%, t l

ny ang giatng dn trong nhng nm gn y,t l tht nghip Hy Lp ln cui

bo co mc 18,4% trong thng Tm nm 2011. (Hnh 2.11)

2.3. Khng hong n cng Ireland v tc ng n tnh hnh TCTT:

2.3.1. Thc trng khng hong n cng Ireland:

Th mnh kinh t: dc phm, hng cng ngh cao v dch v. Ireland c

hng li t mt lc lng lao ng c trnh cao v kh nng kt ni d dng vi

cc nn kinh t khc trong EU.2.3.1.1. T l n cng trn GDP:

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N Chnh ph ca Ireland ln cui bo co nm 2010 mc 96,2% GDP. V

theo s liu gn y nht, thng 11/2011, t l ny vo khong 99,4%GDP. T nm

1980 n nm 2010, n Chnh ph trung bnh trn GDP ca Ireland l 68,95%, tng

t mc cao lch s 109,20% trong thng 12 nm 1987 v ghi li mt mc thp

khong 24,80% trong thng 12 nm 2006 (hnh 2.12).

2.3.1.2. Tnh trng thm ht ngn sch: (theo di hnh 2.13)

Trc qu 1 nm 2008, ngn sch ca chnh ph Ireland lun trng thi

thng d. Tuy nhin t thi im ti nay, tnh trng ngn sch ca nc ny ngy

cng xu i, theo bo co nm 2010 mc thm ht ngn sch ln n con s

31,3% GDP. Ireland l nc c thm ht ngn sch cao nhy khu vc Eurozone.

Sut 3 nm qua, gi nh gim 50-60% khin cho t l n xu (c bit l n

ca cc cng ty pht trin bt ng sn) tng n mc bo ng. H thng ngnhng, theo b t trc nguy c v khin Chnh ph phi ra tay can thip, cho

d ci gi phi tr l n cng tng cao.Nm 2009, chnh ph quc hu ha Anglo

Irish Bank. Trong xut v gi h tr t EU v IMF, Chnh ph Ireland cn tip

tc dng mt phn trong khon tin quc hu ha hai ngn hng ln ca nc

ny l Bank of Ireland v Allied Irish Bank, tip tc bm tin ti cp vn cho

nhiu ngn hng tng t l an ton vn ca cc t chc ny.

2.3.1.3. Thm ht cn cn vng lai

Ireland bo co thng d thng mi tng ng vi 4.113 triu EUR vothng Chn nm 2011. Xut khu vn l ng c chnh cho s tng trng ca

Ireland. Ireland t c thng d thng mi tng i cao nht so vi GDP

ca EU. Trong thi k khng hong n cng honh hnh, tnh hnh xut khu ca

Ireland gim mnh, tuy nhin cn cn thng mi vn trng thi thng d . Trong

nm 2010 v 2011 tnh hnh c phn ci thin do nhng n lc t pha chnh ph

nc ny. (hnh 2.14)

Tuy vy, cn cn vng lai ca Ireland vn thm ht di hn. Cn cn vng lai

thm ht nng nht vo qu I/2008, mc 4000 triu EUR. n qu I/2011 mc

thm ht gim xung tng ng vi 1031 triu EUR. Nhng chuyn bin xu

trong cn cn dch v, cn cn thu nhp v chuyn giao vng lai mt chiu gy

nn tnh trng thm ht cn cn vng lai bt chp cn cn thng mi thng d.

(hnh 2.15)

2.3.1.4. C cu n nc ngoi v nguyn nhn dn n khng hong n cng.

(hnh 2.16) T nm 2003 n nay, n nc ngoi ca Ireland tng nhanh

lin tc. Trong nm 2009, 2010 t trng nca cc t chc ti chnh tin t c phngim xung v b li t trng nu t trc tip tnc ngoi v ntrong cc lnh

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vc khc tng ln. Trong c cu nca Ireland, nca cc t chc ti chnh tin t

lun chim t trng ln nht, nhng khon nny cng tng rt nhanh trong giai

on 2003-2008 do h thng ngn hng ca nc ny qu d gii trong vic pht

hnh cc khon cho vay ( nht l trong lnh vc bt ng sn.) Khi thtrng BS

sp , cc ngn hng lm vo tnh trng kh khn, tng tnh trng hp ca

M, Chnh ph Ireland buc phi cu h thng ngn hng theo cch ring ca mnh,

l to ra mt nh ch ti chnh mi gi l NAMA (National Asset Management

Agency) vo nm 2009 nhn hu ht tt c cc khon nxu ca cc ngn hng

ln ca Ireland. Cc ngn hng ca Ireland sbn li cc khon nxu ny cho

chnh phi ly tri phiu chnh ph. Nh vy, Chnh phIreland bin n

xu ca cc ngn hng ny thnh ti sn cng (nhng ang lin tc mt gi) v ly

tin ca ngn sch b p cho cc tn tht ca n.Trc sau g th cch thc dng tin chnh ph duy tr cc ti sn ngy

cng xung gi trong nn kinh t v bm vn vc dy khu vc ngn hng ca

Ireland cng s buc nc ny phi lin tc i vay mn v chp nhn thm ht

ngn sch cho n khi h khng cn kh nng chi tr na v phi n cu vin nc

ngoi. y cng chnh l nguyn nhn dn n khng hong n cng ca Ireland.

Vic h thng ngn hng sp s khin cho nn Kinh t Ireland hon

ton bngng tr, ko theo sau l hng lot cc h ly v x hi. ngoi ra sau

n c thl quan bi mi n u tin cho s sp hng lot ca cc ngn hngv cc chnh ph trong khu vc EU. Cui cng l s sp ca Khu vc Erozone,

mt iu m chng ai mong mun xy ra. V vy chnh phIRELAND phi chp

nhn tnh trng ncng tng cao bm tin cu cc Ngn hng, sau hy vng

cc nc EU v IMF s cu tr.

Khc vi khng hong nca Hy Lp xut pht t nguyn nhn chnh l kh

nng qun tr ti chnh cng yu km ca nc ny vi nhng khon chi tiu ca

chnh ph qu ln v vt kim sot. Kt qu l thm ht ngn sch nc ny vt

trn 13% GDP v tng n chnh ph trn GDP gn 130%. Qun l n cng ca

Ireland tng i kh hn vi mc nchnh ph trn GDP chtrn di 90% GDP.

Mc thm ht ngn sch ca Ireland gn y tng mnh khng km Hy Lp l do

chnh phnc ny phi b tin ra cu trngnh ngn hng, bao gm quc hu ha

ngn hng v chi tin ti cp vn cho mt sngn hng trong nc. Nh vy

chnh phIreland bin nxu t khu vc t nhn thnh gnh nng nnn ca

chnh ph v cui cng chnh phkhng tin tr nphi i cu vin EU v IMF

c tin tip tc cu gip h thng ngn hng ca mnh.

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2.3.2. Tc ng ca n cng n tnh hnh ti chnh tin t:

2.3.2.1. Xp hng tn nhim b h bc:

Xp hng tn nhim ca Ireland theo Moodys :

Ngy 7/11/2008 12/2/2009 7/7/2009 11/2/2010 31/03/2010 17/12/2010 12/7/2011 18/8/2011

Xp

hngAaa Aa3 Aa1 A1 Baa3 Baa1 Ba1 Ba2

Ngun :http://www.bankofireland.com/about-boi-group/investor-relations/debt-investors/credit-ratings/

Mt trong nhng tc ng r nt nht ca khng hong n cng ln tnh hnh

ti chnh tin t Ireland chnh l vic xp hng tn nhim b h bc. M u l ngy

12/2/2009, Moodys h bc tn nhim ca Ireland t Aaa xung Aa3 do chnh ph

nc ny c ng thi ng ra bo lnh cho Anglo Irish bank. K t n nay,

xp hn tn nhim cng nh bc nh gi sc mnh ti chnh ngn hng( BFRS) vcc ch tiu xp hng khc ca Ireland u b Moodys v cc t chc xp hng khc

h bc.

2.3.2.2. Gi tri phiu gim v li suttng:Li sut tri phiu chnh phk hn 10 nm ca Ireland tng 129 im c

bn trong 12 thng qua. T nm 1991 n nm 2011, li sut trung bnh t

5,76%/nm, trong giai on kinh t Ireland tng trng n nh li sut tri phiu

mc thp, nht l trong thng 9 nm 2005 ch mc 3,06% , nhng t khi xy rakhng hong n cng, li sut tri phiu lin tc tng v t mc cao lch s 14,04%

vo thng 7 nm nay do Moodys h bc tn nhim i vi tri phiu di hn ca

Ireland xung mc b i (Ba1). Li sut tri phiu phi tng b p ri ro v kh

nng tr n ca Ireland.(hnh 2.17)

2.3.2.3. u ttrc tip FDI gim nhanh ng k:C th thy r rng dng vn FDI chy vo Ireland o chiu ngon mc.

Nm 2004, FDI vn mc rt cao ( gn 20 t USD), sang nm 2005 cc nh u t rt vn ng lot ra khi nc ny, khin dng vn FDI mc gn -30 t USD

v tip tc gim su hn trong nm 2006. Lc ny cc nh u t nhn ra qu

bong bng ang ngy cng phnh to ra v mt lng tin vi th trng Ireland. FDI

gim tc ng rt xu ln tnh hnh kinh t vn ang y p n ca Ireland. (hnh

2.18)

2.3.2.4. Tc tng trng GDP gim:

Trong thp nin 1990, Ireland c mt s tng trng thn k, thu nhp

bnh qun u ngi hng nm tng t 3,5% ln mc 6%, thi im trc khnghong n cng, thu nhp bnh qun u ngi ca nc ny khong 40 nghn EUR.

http://www.bankofireland.com/about-boi-group/investor-relations/debt-investors/credit-ratings/http://www.bankofireland.com/about-boi-group/investor-relations/debt-investors/credit-ratings/http://www.bankofireland.com/about-boi-group/investor-relations/debt-investors/credit-ratings/

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Trn thc t, Ireland pht trin thn k t im xut pht thp, nhng c thi

im tng trng GDP cn t mc 10%. y l mt s tng trng khng bn

vng. (hnh 2.19)

Tuy nhin, vn ca Ireland chuyn mu en. Theo thi gian, mi chi

ph Ireland, t tin lng ti vtliu u vo cng tng. Cng vi , nn kinh t

ny chuyn t ch pht trin bng n nh u t nc ngoi v xut khu sang pht

trin bong bng nh cc giao dch mua bn nh t v cc d n xy dng.

2.3.2.5. Ct gim chi tiu:

Quc hi Ireland ti 7/12/2010 thng qua chnh sch tht lng buc bng

nm 2011 trong lc chun b nhn vin tr ti chnh 85 t euro t EU v IMF.

Theo B trng Ti chnh Ireland, nc ny s tng thuvi tt c ngi

lao ng v ct gim phc li x hi, nhm tit kim khong 6 teuro vo nm2011.

Ngn sch nm 2011 l ngn sch hn hp nht trong k hoch tht lng

buc bng 4 nm ti ca Ireland nhm tit kim 15 t bng Anh, gn 10% tng sn

phm quc ni (GDP) hng nm ca nc ny, nhm a thm ht ngn sch v

gii hn trn 3% GDP ca EU vo nm 2014.

2.3.2.6. Lm pht v tht nghip:

Lm pht

Tnh theo ch s hi ha gi tiu dng (HICP) ca EU, trc nm 2007 t llm pht ca Ireland l 2,7%, trong khi t l trung bnh ca EU l1,8%. T l lm

pht t mc cao k lc vo khong 5,1% nm 2007 v mc thp k lc vo khong

-6,56% trong thng 10/2009. Bong bng BS lm gi nh t tng, km theo l

s tng gi ca cc chi ph sn xut khc lm HICP tng, kt qu l y t l lm

pht ln cao. V iu ngc li xy ra khi bong bng v.T l lm pht Ireland

mc 2,8% trong thng Mi nm 2001 (hnh 2.20)

Tht nghip:

Theo thng k nm 2010, Ireland l quc gia c t l tht nghip cao ng

th 3 trong t chc hp tc v pht trin kinh t OECD v 50% trong tng s

440.000 ngi nhn trcp tht nghip l trcp di hn.

Trong thp nin 90, Ireland l mt trong nhng nc c thu nhp bnh qun

u ngi cao nht th gii. Nm 2001, t l tht nghip chmc 3,9%. Khng

hong ncng xy ra cng vi chnh sch tht lng buc bng ca chnh ph lm

cho t l tht nghip Ireland tng lin tc k tnm 2009 v n nay vn cha c

xu hng gim. Theo bo co thng 9/2011, t l tht nghip l 14,3%. Tht nghiptng gp phn lm gia tng bt n x hi. Bng chng l ngy cng c nhiu cuc

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biu tnh yu cu chnh phtng trcp tht nghip v duy tr mt s chnh sch an

sinh x hi thit yu b chnh ph ct gim.(hnh 2.21)

2.4. EU v IMF lm g cu Hy lp v Ireland?

T nhng g phn tch trn ta thy vn n cng ca Ireland l n

gin hn nhiu so vi hy lp, cng vic quan trng i vi Ireland l phi c tin

ti tr cho cc khon n xu ca ngn hng, sau l vic qun tr s n nh th

no gim thit hi cho chnh ph, v vy vo cui thng 11/2010 c EU v IMF

ng cho Ireland vay 85 t Euro vi mc li sut 5,2% trang tri n nn.

Sau l vic c cu li n cho Ireland cng nhng cam kt khi h tr khi tnh hnh

xu i.

Vo ngy 2/5/2010 lin minh chu u EU v IMF thng qua gi cu trth nht cho Hy Lp tr gi 110 t EURO (tng ng khong 136 t USD), khon

gii ngn u tin tr gi 14,5 t EURO c gii ngn cho Hy lp vo ngy 18 -

05-2011 . Chnh ph Hy Lp s s dng khon tin cu tr ny tr 8.5 t Euro n

tri phiu o hn vo ngy 19/5/2010, thay vo , chnh ph Hy Lp phi thc

hin hng lot cc chnh sch khc kh ct gim thm ht ngn sch nh tng

thu,gim lng, ct thng, xa thi bt s cng chc nh nc

Mc d, Ngay sau ngy Hy Lp n nhn thng bo v gi cu tr u tin

110 t euro t Lin minh chu u (EU) v Qu Tin t Quc t (IMF) vo hm 4/5,cc th trng chu u v M tri qua chui ngy bin ng ti t. ng euro

chm mc 1,3031 so vi la M vo ngy 4/5 - thp nht trong vng mt nm v

cho n 5/6/2010 ch cn 1,2790 USD.Nhng vo ngy 21-07-2011, 17 nc thuc

khu vc EUROZONE mt ln na thng qua gi cu tr th 2 cho hy lp tr gi

158,6 triu Euro, iu ng ch trong gi cu tr ln ny l c s ng tham

gia ca khu vc t nhn, gi tr ln ti 49,6 t Euro.

Ngoi vic thng qua gi cu tr mi, cc nc Eurozone cng ng gin

n cho Hy Lp t cc khon vay t Qu Cu tr Tm thi (EFSF) t 7,5 nm thnh

t nht 15 nm v nhiu nht l 30 nm, ng thi nht tr gim li sut vay cho Hy

Lp xung cn 3,5% - so vi mc 4%-5% hin nay.

Mi y Ti Hi ngh Thng nh EU ngy 26-27/10 va qua, sau 10 gi

thng lng, cc lnh o chu u mi t c mt k hoch gip Hy Lp, cu

nguy khu vc ng euro.C th l cc ngn hng t nhn s xa 50% s n cho Hy

Lp, tng ng 100 t euro, chu u s cho Hy Lp vay 100 t t nay n 2014

v ng ra bo lnh 30 t euro. Mt phn tin ny s c dng vo vic tng vncho cc ngn hng Hy Lp, c ngha l cc c s ti chnh ca Hy Lp s t di

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s gim st ca chu u.Cc ngn hng khc ca chu u cng s c cung cp

thm vn, nng mc vn t c t 5% ln 9%, gip i ph tt hn vi khng hong.

Kh nng can thip ca Qu Bnh n Ti chnh chu u (FESF) s c tng

cng, t kh nng cho vay 440 t euro ln thnh 1000 t eurozone.

Vy ti sao cc nc thnh vin khu vc ng tin chung chu u Eurozone

v Lin minh chu u EUphi cu Hy lp, Ireland hay bt c mt nc no khc?

Chng ta hy gi s Hy lp v n v xem nhng tc ng ca n:

Khi Hy lp V N

Hiu ng domino khnghong v sp ca ccNH: Cc NH KH u tinchnh l NH Hy Lp, h s

b chnh ph quc hu ha.Ngoi ra n cn ko theohng lot cc NH Chuu, M v nhiu ncKhc ri vo khng hong.

Hiu ng domino v n ca cc quc gia v tngtrng Kinh t: khin nh u tmt lng tin vo ngtin chung Euro. Mt t tho chy vi quy m ln trn thtrng tri phiu v c phiu cc ngn hng khu vc chuu l hon ton c th v gy hiu ng sp hng lot cc Ngn Hng v nn kinh t yu km khc nh nh Bo Nha, v Ty Ban Nha ..

Khi Hy lp v n chc chn s nh hng n nnkinh t ton cu, tng trng chc chn s cng chm li.iu ny cng lm cho thu nhp (t thu)cc nc vn rivo tnh trng n nn ngy cng gim, trong khi cc chi ph

khc li tng ln: c bit l chi ph li vy huy ng vntrn th trng ti chnh quc t, ch ph ca cc hp ngbo him tng, ch s tn dng gim. iu ny chc chn cnglm cho gi ca tri phiu v li sut cng tng cao tt cnhng iu cng lm cho tnh trng n cngca cc nckhc nh Ytalia, Ireland, Ty ban Nha, B o Nha ti thn.cui cng l tuyn b ph s

Khi Eurozonesp : Cc ncv n ln lt rikhi Eurozone t cu chnh mnhm khng phthuc vo nhngnc khc.

Khng hong kinh tton cu: H thng ccNH sp , Nhiu nctuyn b v n, khieurozone tan v qu cho mt cuc khnghong kinh t th giitrong tt c cc linh vcti chnh, chng khon,

bo him sn xut

Khng hong chnh tr x hi: ttrc ti nay khi nn kinh t sp lun to ra nhng bt n susc trong x hi v nguy c sp ca cc chnh ph. c bit nc tuyn b v n. cc cu biutnh, bo ng s din ra thngxuyn, chnh ph s c thaymi lin tc, ti t hn cth dinra o chnh

http://taichinhchungkhoan.com.vn/Dau-tu.aspxhttp://taichinhchungkhoan.com.vn/Dau-tu.aspxhttp://taichinhchungkhoan.com.vn/Dau-tu.aspx

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PHN 3: THC TRNG N CNG VIT NAM

V GII PHP3.1. Thc trng n cng Vit Nam:

3.1.1. N cng tng lin tc trong nhng nm qua, tim n nhiu ri ro: d hnh dung quy m ca n cng, ngi ta thng o xem khon n ny

bng bao nhiu % so vi Tng sn phm quc ni (GDP). Tuy nhin s liu v n

cng/GDP hin nay vn cha c cng b mt cch r rng.

N cng ca Vit Nam tng lin tc trong nhng nm qua, c bit giai on

t nm 2006 n nm 2010, v tim n trong nhiu ri ro . (Theo bng sliu 3.1

v biu 3.1 )

Nhn xt:

- Theo bng s liu 3.2 v c cu n cng ca Vit Nam nm 2010 th n cng

so vi GDP l 56,6%, trong n chnh ph chim 45,5%GDP v n nc ngoi

chim 11,2% GDP, v hin ti tnh n thi im 01/10/2011, theo s liu t bo

co ca B Ti Chnh va y ban Thng v Quc hi, t l n cng/GDP l 55,6%,

tng ng 1.103 t ng, trong n nc ngoi chim ti 42,2% GDP. Nh vy

c th thy rng n cng trong nhng nm qua ngy cng tng cao.

- Trn l thuyt mc n cng ca Vit Nam vn nm trong ngng cho php,

nhng Vit Nam phi tnh ti phn chm ca tng bng, tc l nhng khon nngm bao gm: cc khon n ngn hng, tin tr cp hu tr, cc khon bo him x

hi m chnh ph s phi chi tr cho ngi lao ng hay cc khon m chnh ph s

phi chi tr khi ng ra bo lnh cc khon vay cho nhng ngi c thu nhp thp

m trong tng lai h c th khng c kh nng thanh ton, hay l cc khon t vay

t tr ca cc tng cng ty, tp onnh nc. y l nhng yu t tim n nhiu

ri ro i vi kinh t Vit Nam, nu Vit Nam l l.

- Vic i vay n ca chnh ph l nhm ti tr cho cc khon thm ht ngn

sch Nh nc. Tuy nhin khi tnh ton n chnh ph thng khng lng ha cnhhng ca yu t lm pht trong chi tiu ca chnh ph, ch tnh cc khon tr

li vay theo li sut danh ngha, nhng thc ra phi tnh theo li sut thc t. Do li

sut danh ngha bng li sut thc t cng vi t l lm pht, nn thm ht ngn

sch b phng i.

- Nhiu nh kinh t cho rng, khi tnh ton n chnh ph cn phi tr i tng

gi tr ti sn ca chnh ph. Tuy nhin, khi tnh ton theo phng php ny thng

gp phi vn l nhng g nn coi l ti sn ca chnh ph v tnh ton gi tr ca

chng nh th no, v d: ng quc l, kho v kh hay chi tiu cho gio dc

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- Vic tnh ton n cng Vit Nam cha thc hin nguyn tc qun l thng

nht: n nc ngoi, n trong nc, n nc ngoi do doanh nghip v cc a

phng t i vay khin cng tc qun l n phn tn, khng thng nht, chi ph giao

dch, chi ph vay cao, thiu s phi hp trong iu hnh v m.

- Mt khc do Vit Nam thot khi nhm nc ngho, gia nhp nhm nc

c thu nhp trung bnh nn cc khon vay u i ODA cng gim dn m thay vo

l cc khon vay thng mi vi li sut cao hn.

- ng tin ca Vit Nam mt gi kh nhiu so vi tin ca nhng nc chng

ta vay vn nh: Nht, EU lm tng thm gnh nng n cng.

Hu qu: N cng tng cao gy ra nhiu hu qu:

Nu mt quc gia c n nc ngoi ln th quc gia buc phi tng cng

xut khu tr n nc ngoi v do kh nng tiu dng trong nc gim stNu n trong nc ln th Chnh ph phi tng thu tr n li vay gy ra tn

tht v ch v phc li x hi. Tng thu cn lm gim u t, km hm s phc

hi ca nn kinh t, lm chm tc tng trng.

Lm pht kh kim ch mc thp.

N cng tng cao cng lm cho nn kinh t b h bc tn nhim, nim tin ca

ngi dn v gii u t b lung lay, khi nn kinh t d tr thnh mc tiu tn

cng ca cc th lc u c quc t.

3.1.2. Vit nam s dng n cng cha tht s hiu qu :Theo Bo co K hoch pht trin kinh t x hi 2006 2010 ca b K

hoch v u t: Trong nhiu nm nay, cho d thu ngn sch tng ng k nhng

ngn sch nh nc vn ch p ng khong 60% nhu cu chi cn thit ti thiu,

theo bo co v tnh hnh thc hin K hoch pht trin kinh t x hi 2006 2010

ca b K hoch v u t. B ny tha nhn, ngoi mc thm ht ngn sch cao

(t 5 6,9% GDP trong nhng nm gn y), cn c nhng khon chi ngoi ngn

sch m nu a ht vo chi ngn sch th mc bi chi c th ln n trn 10%.

y l mt t l qu cao, dn n ri ro ln v kh nng tr n trong tng lai, b

tha nhn. Thm ht ngn sch gn y c b p bng vay n trong v ngoi

nc ch yu di hnh thc pht hnh tri phiu, nhng b ny tha nhn thc t

m t ngi dm ni ra: Hin nay vn cha r ngun kinh ph chi tr khi cc tri

phiu n hn thanh ton l g?.(Ni lo tr n_ TBKTSG)

Theo quy lut, c vay th phi c tr. tr n gc v li tnh ring cho cc

khon vay ODA u i, ngn sch phi chi 70.250 t ng nm 2010, tng cao so

vi 58.800 t ng nm 2009 v 51.200 t ng nm 2008, theo y ban Ti chnh ngn sch. Ngun chi tr c th s khng ng lo, nu nhng d n u t cng

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c cp vn t nhng ngun vay n t hiu qu, v sinh li. Nhng y li l

mt cu chuyn di khc.

Hiu qu ca vn u t ang gim thp n mc bo ng vi ch s ICOR

tng mnh trong giai on 2001-2010 (Hnh 3.2). Nu nh trong giai on 2001-

2006, h s ICOR nm khong 4,5 th n giai on 2007 -2008, h s ny t

6,15 nhng nm 2009, ICOR nhy vt ln 8 v n nm 2010, h s ny gim

xung cn 6,2; nhng vn cn cao hn nhiu so vi khuyn co ca WB: i vi

mt nc ang pht trin, h s ICOR mc 3 l u t c hiu qu v nn kinh t

pht trin theo hng bn vng.

Xt theo Hnh 3.3, ta c th thy c, so vi cc nc trong khu vc Chu ,

ICOR ca Vit Nam gn gp i, c ngha l hiu sut u t ch bng mt na cc

nc .B sung cho h s ICOR cao l nhng khu cng nghip, khu kinh t ven bin,

cng bin, quy hoch hoc khi cng nhng cn dang d v cn lng vn

ln na hon thin. Gn y, khi c hi v vic c 5.000 d n cng Vit

Nam b chm tin theo cng b ca b Ti chnh, chuyn gia kinht trng ca

ngn hng Th gii ti Vit Nam Martin Rama tr li l ng khng h ngc

nhin. ng gii thch: Ngay c nhng d n ODA do chng ti ti tr cng b

chm l tnh hnh chung vi cc d n Vit Nam.

Cu chuyn Vinashin l mt v d. Hng trm triu USD vn tri phiu quc tc huy ng v chuyn cho tp on ny vay li. Tuy nhin, vic s dng vn

cha hiu qu, s v n ca Vinashin t ra cu hi v lng tin ca cc nh u

t quc t vi mi trng kinh doanh Vit Nam. Cui thng 11/2010, trang web ca

Bloomberg dn cc ngun tin t cng ty t vn ti chnh Moody c tr s ti M

cho bit, n xu ca Vinashin cng nh hng xu n cc ngn hng Vit Nam.

T trng hp n l ca Vinashin, chng ta thy c l chuyn quntr n.

N khng phi l xu, nhng cn phi tnh ton n hai yu t: hiu qu t nhng

ng vn vay v h qu lu di nu khng gii quyt c dt im vn n.

Nhng g Hy Lp, Ireland ang tri qua s c th xy ra bt c quc gia no. Ch

n rtd bin thnh con n nu khng kp thi iu chnh li ng x vi cng n

v tm nhn trong u t.

Vi tnh hnh vay n v hiu qu s dng nh vy, khng c g ngc nhin khi

ti cuc hp y ban thng v Quc hi va ri khng t i biu t ra lo ngi

v n cng v an ninh ti chnh ca t nc.

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3.1.3. Thm ht ngn sch ngy cng tng dn n tnh bn vng ca n cng

b gimst:

Mt xu th rt ng lo ngi l cng trong giai on 2001-2010, thm ht

ngn sch (c trong v ngoi d ton) tng t 4,86%GDP (2005) GDP ln ti

6,9%GDP (2009) v 5,8%GDP (2010). (Theo Hnh 3.4)

Bi chi ca Vit Nam lun mc 5% GDP t nhiu nm gn y. T nm

2007 n nay, do phi kch cu u t nn ngn sch nh nc chi mt lng

tin ln ra lu thng nn tc tng bi chi ngn sch nh nc tng cao hn rt

nhiu so vi giai on trc.

Nm 2008, s din bin phctp ca cuc khng hong ti chnhton cu

nhhngln n spht trin kinht, xhi ca nc ta. Trong khi t l tng

trng ca Vit Nam ch t 6,23%, th t l lm pht ln ti 22,97%, t l bi chingn sch mc 4,58% GDP.

ng trc tnh hnh khng hong ti chnh v suy thoi kinh t th gii din

bin ngy cng phc tp, t u nm 2009 Chnh ph a ra gi kch thch kinh

t c tng gi tr gn 10% GDP. V c bn n t c mc tiu ra l ngn

chn c suy gim kinh t tuy nhin n cng mang n h ly: thm ht ngn

sch ca Vit Nam ln n 87,3 nghn t ng (gn 7% so vi GDP).

Nm 2010, thm ht ngn sch bng 5,8% GDP.

Theo cng b gn y nht ca b Ti chnh, so vi tc tng trng GDP9 thng u nm 2011 l 5.76% th mc thm ht ngn sch 9 thng ch vo khong

2.6% GDP. (Hnh 3.5)

Nh vy, trong khi n cng tng lin tc th ngn sch li ngy cng tr nn

thm ht. iu ny vi phm mt nguyn tc c bn ca qun l n cng bn vng,

l n cng ngy hm nay phi c ti tr bng thng d ngn sch ngy mai.

Hn th, thm ht ngn sch Vit Nam tr thnh kinh nin v mc thm

ht vt xa ngng bo ng 5% theo thng l quc t, khin tnh bn vng

ca n cng cng b gim st. Trong khi , vi nhu cu tip tc u t pht

trin, chc chn n cng ca Vit Nam s cn tng trong nhiu nm ti. C th l,

vi t l tit kim ni ach khong 27% GDP trong khi mc u t ton x hi

mi nm khong 42% GDP th Chnh ph s phi tip tc i vay rt nhiu (bn cnh

vn u t nc ngoi) b p khon thiu ht u t.

3.1.4. N cng ca Vit Nam xp top cui v tnh minh bch:

Cc con s v khon n cng ca Vit Nam c cng b khng ng nht

gia Quc hi, B Ti chnh, ng thi con s ny cng khng ging vi con stnh ton ca th gii. iu ny khin cc chuyn gia nhn nh, hin nhng thng

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tin v vn n cng ca Vit Nam cha thc s minh bch. Hin nay, B Ti

chnh cng bc u c nhng thng tin cng khai v n cng trn website ca

mnh nhng mi ch dng li n nc ngoi ch cha phi ton b n cng.

Cng theo cc chuyn gia, thng k ti chnh ca Vit Nam hin nay mi ch

tp trung vo n Chnh ph, nn kh c th thy c ton cnh vn ti chnh

cng v n cng v khu vc doanh nghip nh nc rt ln v Chnh ph vn phi

chu trch nhim vi khu vc ny. V y cng l mt trong cc nguyn nhn dn

n nhng s vic nh Vinashin.

3.2. Cc gii php Vit Nam khng ri vo khng hong n cng:

3.2.1. Tng cng nng lc cnh tranh cho nn kinh t:

C rt nhiu bin php ci thin v tng cng nng lc cnh tranh cho

nn kinh t. Tuy nhin nn kinh t Vit Nam l mt nn kinh t c m ln vinh hng xut khu v ph thuc ng k vo FDI, m cc nhn t chnh tc ng

n cht lng xut khu v u t ca Vit Nam hin nay l cht lng sn phm;

chi ph sn xut; nng sut lao ng; hng ro thu quan v phi thu quan; vic tun

th cc qui nh v sinh v an ton kim dch

3.2.1.1. Tng nng sut lao ng:

- Ci thin nng sut lao ng trong x hi cn c xem l mc tiu quan trng.

Hin ti, nng sut lao ng ca Vit Namnhn chung vn kh thp, ch bng

1/5 nng sut trung bnh trong khu vc ASEAN v khong 1/10 mc nng sutca Singapore.

- p dng cc thit b my mc c cng ngh mi nht. Hin nay rt nhiu doanh

nghip ca chng ta nhp khu nhng thit b ch l hng ph thi ca cc Nc

Pht trin em v trong nc Sn xut.

- Nng cao kin thc, k nng ngh cho ngi lao ng gp phn nng cao

cht lng ngun nhn lc. Theo thng k, gn lao ng cha tt nghip trung

hc ph thng, 65,3% cha qua o to.

3.2.1.2. Tng cng cht lng v sc cnh tranh ca hng xut khu v mi

trng ut:

tng cng cht lng v sc cnh tranh ca hng ha xut khu v mi

trng u t ca Vit Nam chng ta cn tun th tt cc quy tc, cc tiu chun

quc t ca WTO, ca EUnh cht lng sn phm; hng ro thu quan v phi

thu quan; tun th cc qui nh v sinh v an ton kim dch

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3.2.2. Nhm gii php lin quan n vic vay v s dng n cng hiu qu:

3.2.2.1. Gim thm ht ngn sch nh nc (NSNN) nhm hn ch vic vay n:

Vic gim thm ht ngn sch khng phi cng nhiu cng tt, m cn phi gim

n mt mc hp l v chp nhn c.

Tng thu ngn sch nh nc:

Mc d c nhiu ngun thu khc tng thu ngn sch nh nc v vic tng

thu khng phi l gii php tt nht, nhng Vit Nam ang l mt quc gia ph

thuc rt nhiu vo thu, th vic lm ny t nhiu vn c c hi.

- Cn xc nh c mc thu sut hp l t c mc thu ti u. V

bin php tng thu bng vic n nh tng thu sut c tc ng hai chiu,

nu tng vi mc hp l, s lm tng ngun thu, nhng khi vt qu gii

hn ca nn kinh t th s lm gim tng ngun thu thu.- Nng cao hiu qu cng tc thu thu, ng thi nhanh chng hon thin cc

lut thu; bi b nhng khon ph, l ph khng cn ph hp.

- Tng thm tui ngh hu, qua s tng ngun thu t thu (do ngi lao

ng lm vic trong thi gian di).

Gim chi ngn sch nh nc:

C th ni vic ct gim chi tiu gim thm ht ngn sch l mt bin php

khng c ng h nhiu. Tuy nhin, nu phn bit r vic tit kim nhng khon

chi cho nhng hot ng lng ph vi khon chi nhm kch thch hot ng kinh t,nhm nui dng ngun thu trong tng lai, th y cng l mt trong nhng gii

php cn c quantm ti.

- B my nhn s khi hnh chnh cn lm vic theo th cng, cng knh,

khng hiu qu, v vy cn tinh gin v cng ngh ho phc v qun l hnh

chnh nhm gim nhn s, ci cch th tc hnh chnh.

- Ch u t vo nhng d n mang tnh ch o, hiu qu nhm to ra nhng

t ph cho s pht trin kinh t x hi, c bit nhng d n cha hoc

khng hiu qu th phi ct gim, thm ch khng u t. R sot v ct b

cc hng mc u t km hiu qu ca DNNN.

- Tng cng qun l cc cng trnh u t ca nh nc thc s c hiu

qu trnh tht thot, lng ph ngun vn.

3.2.2.2.Nng cao hiu qu huy ng vn v s dng vn vay:

Nng cao hiu qu huy ng vn :

- a dng ho c hnh thc vay ln bin php tng mc hp dn ngi

cho vay. Ngoi ra, cn phi trin khai cc bin php khc huy ng ti angun tin trong dn c.

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- Tng cng qung b, gii thiu tri phiu Chnh ph trn th trng quc t.

Tng tnh thanh khon cho tri phiu bng cch Chnh ph s mua li tri

phiu chnh ph bt c lc no t ngi mua theo thi gi hin ti

- Ngoi ra, kiu hi cng l ngun quan trng c th thu ht tr n nc

ngoi,. Cc chnh sch kiu hi ca Vit Nam cn thng thong ci m, n

gin v hiu qu hn v s lng kiu hi thc t chuyn v cn rt nhiu

khng qua ngn hng v lng kiu hi ny khng qua cc knh chnh thc

nh: xch tay, t nhn, t chc khc...Ngoi ra, cn duy tr v tip tc ko

gim chnh lch gia t gi trong v ngoi ngn hng c th thu ht

ngi nhn kiu hi bn li ngoi t cho ngn hng.

S dng vn hp l, c hiu qu:

3.2.3. Nhm gii php lin quan n vic qun l n cng:3.2.3.1. Tip tc hon thin cc th ch v xy dng khung php l:

Hon thin Lut qun l n cng:

Cn hon thin v ngb hn cc vn bn php l, tin ti chun mc theo

thng l quc t. Lut Qun l n cng c ban hnh, c hiu lc s dng t

ngy 01 thng 01 nm 2010. Tuy nhin, mt s ni dung ca Lut vn cn chung

chung, cn phi c lm r. Chng hn nh:

- Vvic hon tr vn vay, hin cha c quy nh r v vic bn giao n vay

i vi cc i tng vay n, c bit chnh quyn a phng khi ngiqun l ht nhim k. V d, nhng ngun vn vay c s dng km hiu

qu, v n th liu ngi k nhim c dm nhn vic tr n ny hay khng?

V vy ngh a vo lut quy trch nhim khon n s giao cho ai v

c thc hin nh th no.

- Vic cng b cng khai cc thng tin v tnh hnh vay n. D tho Lut hin

cn chung chung, cha th hin r nhng vn nh thi gian cng b cng

khai, ni dung cc thng tin cng b cng khai gm nhng vn g, chnh

quyn a phng c phi cng b cng khai tnh hnh vay n khng?

- Hc hi kinh nghim qun l v xy dng chnh sch t cc t chc quc t

c uy tn, cc quc gia thnh cng trong cng tc qun l n.

3.2.3.2.m bo an ton, bn vng n:

Thay i cch nh gi v tiu ch kim sot n cng:

- N cng/GDP:

Khng nn nh gi tnh trng n cng hay nng lc thc s ca nn kinh t

ch cn c trn t l n cng/ GDP, m cn nn xem xt cc ch tiu cn cn thngmi, d tr ngoi hi, d tr ti chnh, qu tch ly tr n.

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V GDP sau khi tr i phn chi tr s hu v cng vi phn thu nhp t s

hu c gi l Tng thu nhp Quc gia (Gross National Income - GNI)y mi l

khon m mt quc gia c th nhn c trong qu trnh sn xut v s hu. GNI

sau khi c cng thm cc khon thu nhp t chuyn nhng nh kiu hi, cc

khon vin tr khng hon liv c tr i cc khon chi chuyn nhng, lc

khon cn li mi l Thu nhp Quc gia kh dng (National Disposable Income -

NDI). l khon tin m quc gia c th s dng thc t sau khi b tr cc giao

dch quc t qua li.

Vic so snh n cng ch bng GDP c th gy ng nhn v gy ra tm l

ch quan khi s khc bit gia GDP v GNI ngy cng tng.

- Cch cn i ngn sch:

Nn thay i cch cn i NSNN theo thng l quc t nhm to thun likhi so snh mc bi chi ca VN vi cc nc, v xc nh mc an ton v n

Chnh ph khi cn i kinh t v m. Vic p dng chun mc quc t s to lng

tin cho cc nh u t nc ngoi v tnh minh bch trong qun l kinh t ca VN.

- Khi tnh ton n cng cn lng ha c nh hng ca yu t lm pht

trong chi tiu, bng cch tnh cc khon tr li vay theo li sut thc t thay

v tnh theo li sut danh ngha. ng thi, chnh ph cn quan tm n cc

khon n tim tng nh tin tr cp hu tr, cc khon bo him x hi

Tng cng qun l gim st chi tiu cng:- Cn tng cng gim st ng tin ngn sch chi kp thi, ng i tng,

ng mc ch.

- Cn tng bc hon thin h thng lut php v qun l ti chnh - ngn sch

Nh nc.Kt qu kim sot v kim ton phi gn vi trch nhim c nhn,

nhng ngi t bt ph duyt cc khon chi phi chu hon ton trch

nhim v quyt nh ca mnh.

Tng cng cng tc qun l ri ro:

- Xy dng quy ch qun l ri ro: theo di ton din cc ri ro: t gi, li sut,

ti cp vn, thanh khon, tn dng; nghin cu kinh nghim quc t v cch

tnh mc ph bo lnh v cho vay li phn nh mc ri ro tn dng v th

trng ca cc khon vay.

- Theo di cht ch, m bo thanh ton ng hn, xy dng cc ngng an

ton v hn mc vay ph hp.

- nh k bo co Chnh ph, hoc bo co t xut khi d on c nguy c

mt an ton n.

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3.2.3.3. Cng khai v minh bch ha thng tin v n cng:

- Ngha v n v cc iu khon vay n phi c cng b y cho cng

chng.

- Thng tin v n cng phi bao qut c trong qu kh, hin ti v d tnh cho

tng lai. V d: Nu thng tin v Vinashin c cung cp y v kp

thi, Quc hi, cc phng tin thng tin i chng v nhn dn tham gia

ngay t khi n cha b ln su vo khng hong v ngp nga trong n nn

nh hin nay th tnh hnh chc chn tt p hn nhiu.

KTLUN

S sp ca hai nn kinh t c coi l nhng hnh mu tng trng ca chu u

l nhng bi hc nhn tin i vi tt c cc nc, bt k l giu hay ngho. Mi e

da v khng hong n cng vn ang tip din v c nguy c lan rng ra cc quc

gia khc chu u (B o Nha, Ty Ban Nha, Italia) cng nh nh hng n

cc quc gia khc trn ton th gii, trong c Vit Nam.Nghin cu v n cng,

nhng nguyn nhn, tc ng v nh hng ca n t c c nhng gii

php ph hp trong vic qun l n cng v ngn nga khng hong n cng l vn

cp bch v cn c thc hin ngay.

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TRCH DN BIU V S LIU

Bng2.1: thng k GDP v t l Public debt/ GDP (%) ca mt vi quc gia nm 2010

Hnh 2.1: so snh t l n/ GDP mt s quc gia nm 2010, ngun: tradingeconomics.com

Quc gia GDP 2010(million)

N cng2010

(million)

Public debt/

GDP (%)

United States 14.582 13.590 93,2%Japan 5.498 12.112 220,3%Greece 305 435 142,8%Ireland 204 196 96,2%Spain 1.407 845 60,1%Portugal 229 231 93%Italy 2.051 2.440 119%

Germany 3.310 2.754 83,2%France 2.560 2.091 81,7%UnitedKingdom

2.246 1.797 80%

India 1.729 1.196 69,2%China 5.879 1.040,6 17,7%

0 50 100 150 200 250

United States

Japan

Greece

Ireland

Spain

Portugal

Italy

Germany

France

United Kingdom

India

China

Public debt/ GDP

Public debt/ GDP

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Hnh 2.2: T trng n cng trnGDP ca Hy Lp Hnh 2.3. Nhng ch n ln nhtca Hy Lp

Hnh 2.4. T trng n cng ca Hy Lp theo k hn

Hnh 2.5: Tnh trng thm ht cn cn vng lai ca Hy Lp.

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Hnh 2.6. Tnh hnh thm ht cn cn thng mi ca Hy Lp

Hnh 2.7. Tnh trng thm ht ngn sch ca Hy Lp

Hnh 2.8. Li sut tri phiu chnh ph Hy Lp.

6.4

9.8

15.4

10.5

2007 2008 2009 2010

Biu Thm ht ngn sch ca Hy lp t 2007 - 2010

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Hnh 2.9. u t FDI ca Hy LpSource: Bank of Greece 2010, revised data regarding 2006-2008

Hnh 2.10. Tc tng trng GDP ca Hy Lp

Hnh 2.11. T l tht nghip Hy Lp

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Hnh 2.12. T l n cng trn GDP ca Ireland giai on 2000-2010

Hnh 2.13. Cn cn ngn sch Ireland giai on 1998 2010.

Hnh 2.14. Cn cn thng mi Ireland giai on 2009-2011

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Hnh 2.15. Cn cn vng lai Ireland giai on 2007-2011

Ngun: irelandafternama.worldpress.com

Hnh 2.16. C cu n nc ngoi ca Ireland giai on 2003-2010

Hnh 2.17. Li sut tri phiu chnh ph k hn 10 nm ca Ireland.

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Hnh 2.18. Ngun vn FDI ca Ireland giai on 1974-2009

Hnh 2.19. Tc tng trng GDP ca Ireland giai on 2007 2011.

Hnh 2.20. T l lm pht ca Ireland giai on 2008 2011

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Ngun: The Economist Intelligence Unit

Hnh 3.1: Tnh hnh n cng v n nc ngoi ca Vit Nam nm 2001-2010

Bng 3.2: c cu n cng Vit Nam

2010

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Ngun: Tng cc Thng k

Hnh 3.2: H s ICOR ca Vit Nam giai on 2001-2010

Hnh 3.3: H s ICOR ca Vit Nam v mt s nc Chu .

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Hnh 3.4: Thm ht ngn sch giai on 2005-2011(d bo)

Hnh 3.5: Tnh hnh thu, chi ngn sch nh nc 9 thng u nm 2011

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TI LIU THAM KHO

1. PGS.TS.S Nguyn Vn Tin, Ti Chnh Quc T, Nh xut bn Thng k,

2010.2. LUT QUN L N CNG, S 29/2009/QH12 ngy 17/06/2009

3. NGH NH V NGHIP V QUN L N CNG, S 79/2010/N-CP

ngy 14/07/2010

4. Cc WEBSITE:

http://dantri.com.vn/

http://taichinhchungkhoan.com.vn/

http://tapchicongsan.org/

http://cafef.vn/

http://vietbao.vn/

http://vnbusiness.vn/

http://vneconomy.vn/

http://vnexpress.net/

http://www.doimoi.org/

http://www.gso.gov.vn/

http://www.taichinhvietnam.com/http://www.tapchitaichinh.vn/

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/

http://www.bankofireland.com/

http://www.debtclock.org/

http://dantri.com.vn/http://dantri.com.vn/http://taichinhchungkhoan.com.vn/http://taichinhchungkhoan.com.vn/http://tapchicongsan.org/http://tapchicongsan.org/http://cafef.vn/http://vietbao.vn/http://vietbao.vn/http://vnbusiness.vn/http://vnbusiness.vn/http://vneconomy.vn/http://vneconomy.vn/http://vnexpress.net/http://vnexpress.net/http://www.doimoi.org/http://www.doimoi.org/http://www.gso.gov.vn/http://www.gso.gov.vn/http://www.taichinhvietnam.com/vietnamfinancial/http://www.taichinhvietnam.com/vietnamfinancial/http://www.tapchitaichinh.vn/http://www.tapchitaichinh.vn/http://www.tradingeconomics.com/http://www.tradingeconomics.com/http://www.bankofireland.com/http://www.bankofireland.com/http://www.debtclock.org/http://www.debtclock.org/http://www.debtclock.org/http://www.bankofireland.com/http://www.tradingeconomics.com/http://www.tapchitaichinh.vn/http://www.taichinhvietnam.com/vietnamfinancial/http://www.gso.gov.vn/http://www.doimoi.org/http://vnexpress.net/http://vneconomy.vn/http://vnbusiness.vn/http://vietbao.vn/http://cafef.vn/http://tapchicongsan.org/http://taichinhchungkhoan.com.vn/http://dantri.com.vn/