tigge lam report tiziana paccagnella

WWRP JSC meeting-Geneva 20 24 Febrary [email protected]

TIGGE LAM ReportTiziana Paccagnella


LAM EPS

Many Ongoing DevelopmentsPerturbations on the Initial Conditions &Blending with larger scale perturbations by the driving larger scale system.Model perturbations

Change of parameter settings Stochastic Physics Multi-physics Multi-Model

Developments on surface perturbationsGoing toward Convective-Permitting LAM EPSLAM EPS and DA


Restructuring of the Panel

The Panel has been (and is being) restructured trying to make it more efficient at Regional level.

New members have been asked to join the Panel to engage people personally involved in LAM EPS and then in the position to make plans and to take commitments.

The Panel has been divided in regional sub-groups: N. America

Josh Hacker is the Focal Point

AsiaJing Chen is the focal Point

Europe Tiziana Paccagnella is the focal point

S. America and Southern HemisphereandAfricawill be formalized later on.


NA sub-group


TIGGE LAM Plan

Following the last JSC meeting, the TIGGE LAM plan has been drafted and it is now under finalization.

The present version of the plan is available at: http://www.smr.arpa.emr.it/tiggelam/

http://www.smr.arpa.emr.it/tiggelam/

• Mesoscale predictability• Mesoscale model inadequacy• Interactions between larger scale perturbations given

by the driving global systems and “local” perturbations generated specifically for the LAM EPS.

• Domain size and “local” perturbations on initial conditions

• Perturbations associated to soil/surface description• Cycling short-range uncertainty for initial perturbations

o Multi Model EPSo Quantify the additional benefit of Multi-LAM EPS

• Evaluate the performance of convective permitting EPS systems and their benefit over restricted integration domains versus the combination of lower resolution ensemble systems

• Predictability at the convection-resolving scale to support the design of the future LAM EPS systems.

o Biases in deterministic models and calibrationo Verification methodso Assess the probability of rare meteorological events

• Probabilistic forecasts for other modelling applications

o LAM EPS and Data Assimilation: which are the key characteristics of a LAM EPS to best represent short-range forecast error co variances for use in DA?

TIGGE Plan: Scientific Issues

Still to be refinedand better focussed

Indication how to develop research to be included

More contributions should come thanks to the new regional structure of the Panel.

• Mesoscale predictability• Mesoscale model inadequacy• Interactions between larger scale perturbations given

by the driving global systems and “local” perturbations generated specifically for the LAM EPS.

• Domain size and “local” perturbations on initial conditions

• Perturbations associated to soil/surface description• Cycling short-range uncertainty for initial perturbations

o Multi Model EPSo Quantify the additional benefit of Multi-LAM EPS

• Evaluate the performance of convective permitting EPS systems and their benefit over restricted integration domains versus the combination of lower resolution ensemble systems

• Predictability at the convection-resolving scale to support the design of the future LAM EPS systems.

o Biases in deterministic models and calibrationo Verification methodso Assess the probability of rare meteorological events

• Probabilistic forecasts for other modelling applications

o LAM EPS and Data Assimilation: which are the key characteristics of a LAM EPS to best represent short-range forecast error co variances for use in DA?

TIGGE Plan: Scientific Issues

From 23 to 25 February 2001(this week)

Joint SRNWP Workshop onEPS and DA

ARPA-SIMC Bologna


TIGGE Plan: Actions / Activities

Action 0: Reorganization of the TIGGE LAM Panel Action 1: Set-up of cross-working group discussion between TIGGE-LAM, the MWFR

working group and the WGNE. Action 2: Set-up of cross-working group discussion with the Verification Working

Group and SERA. Action 3: Definition of the key requirements for regional ensemble forecasting. Action 4: Identification of possible Funding opportunities to support the

development and implementation of the Regional activities. Action 5: Activate link with major mesoscale applications (hydrology). Action 5: Set up of the TIGGE-LAM Database Action 6: TIGGE LAM Data Policy Action 7: Implementation of regional observational dataset for objective verification

of Mesoscale Deterministic and Ensemble forecasting. Action 8: Definition of further HIW related specific products. Action 9: Set up of specific projects and collaborations addressed to the specific

scientific issues (e.g. EU projects, HYMEX, ) Action 10: Coordinate the participation of LAM EPS groups to RDPs and FDPs. Action 11: Define standards to exchange meteorological fields required as Initial and

Boundary conditions – Interoperability Action 12: Provide LAM EPS products in format compliant with GIFS-TIGGE directives


TIGGE LAM Planlinks with Hydrology

European Flood Alert System (EFAS)(Contacts: Jutta Thielen and Ad de Roo)

HEPEX(Contact: Jutta Thielen, John Schaake,

Florian Pappenberger)

HEPEX(Contact: Jutta Thielen, John Schaake,

Florian Pappenberger)

IMPRINTS(Contact: Daniel Sempere, Jutta Thielen)


Archiving

Archiving of high priority parameters on regular lat/lon grids.

CMA is starting the archiving of TIGGE LAM HP parameters from CMA Regional system.

The archiving of European products at ECMWF has been slowed down due to other priorities at ECMWF.

Archiving of TIGGE LAM products on their native grids

LAM EPS are going to run at the convective-permitting scale. Products on the native grids should be made available and tools to manage these data should be developed. As regards Europe, this task has been included into the GEO-WOW FP7


HIPRECA: HIgh resolution PREcipitation Analyses for verification as a complement to TIGGE and TIGGE LAM products.

The possibility to implement an European archive of high resolution precipitation analyses based on high density network data is being explored. Contacts are established with ECMWF and with other European groups and initiatives with the same objectives.

Basic set-up: Proposal/Desiderata Possible upgrades

◦24 hour cumulated precipitation at the highest possible resolution ( a guess: 0.1 °)

◦Shorter accumulation periods◦More parameters

◦Access to the analyses through registration and by submission of a short work description.

◦Data providers will be automatically informed about the registration and they will have one week (?) to raise objections. After one week the user is registered.

◦Analysis methodology: the methodology by Anna Ghelli (and Carlos Santos)

◦More analyses methodologies applied to the same dataset

◦Availability of a standard verification package



Present statusUnofficial agreement with David Richardson and Anna Ghelli to start the implementation of the dataset at ECMWF.Anna Ghelli is already collecting data from the European local networks.




Cooperation with other similar initiatives in Europe.A meeting has been organized by Anna Ghelli at ECMWF on the 2nd Dec 2010. This meeting was aimed to coordinate this activity with the EUMETGRID/EUMETNET project leaded by Ole Tveito from Met.No. Participants: Anna Ghelli (ECMWF), Ole Tveito (Met.No), Dan Hollis (MetOffice), Tiziana Paccagnella (ARPA-SIMC TIGGE LAM). A cooperation has been set up toward the definition of a coordinated activity (to be hopefully funded by submitting a project proposal to EU)This initiative should also link with other ongoing projects like EURO4M and ARCIS (Northern Italy initiative)





EUMETNET meeting today and

tomorrow at MeteoSwiss Zurich





Required preliminary actions:Define the official agreement with ECMWF (waiting for an answer from D. Richardson)Write a letter to the data providers to ask their formal agreement .Fill gaps in the data already collected at ECMWF

EUMETNET meeting today and

tomorrow at MeteoSwiss Zurich


Contribution to the definition of the GEO-WOW FP7 proposal

Tiziana Paccagnella proposed two tasks to be included to this project proposal:

1st task: TIGGE LAM archiveExtension of the TIGGE archive to include

products from the several Limited Area Ensembles running operationally at the different centres in Europe. Products transmitted and archived on their native grid.2nd task High Resolution precipitation analyses

Implementation of a dataset based on data from european high density observational networksDue to the limited available funds, only the first

task has been included.

The second task should be carried on as a contribution of ECMWF to the TIGGE archive (see previous paragraph 4).


Archiving of LAM EPS Products

Interoperability:content and format of IC/BC

SRNWP Interoperability

TIGGE LAM Parameters and coding specifics taken as starting point

Link : participation to the meetings and by e-mail

Transmission of information for comments and feedbacks

Link with the EUMETNET SRNWP Interoperability Programme


Link with the EUMETNET/SRNWP interoperability Programme

Gatwick closed

due to snow


Link with the EUMETNET/SRNWP

interoperability Programme

Options 1. …………… 2. ……………… 3. …………………… 4. Extend the programme to deliver a solution for

lateral boundary conditions for ensemble prediction systems.

5. ……………………… 6. ………………………..

This first phase is going to finish

Brainstorming is started in december to evaluate if a request to have a second phase will be submitted

The ET EPS and TIGGE LAM have been requested by Rachel North to express their opinions about the different possible options for phase two

This week, European Lam EPS groups will meet in Bologna to

We will discuss about this and also about the possible scientific cooperations also related to TIGGE


Link with ICT /CIMA

First contact:

DRIHMS (Distributed Research Infrastructure for Hydro-Meteorology Study)First open consultation meeting. Genova 14 Oct. 2010.

“Limited Area Ensemble Forecasting and TIGGE LAM”Tiziana Paccagnella


Link with ICT / CIMA

Possibility to participate to

Project to develop ICT tools to support EPS

???


Link with SOCHI

TP is soliciting European ContributionsJH is doing the same in NA

1st workshop at SOCHI next week


Link with HYMEX

4th HYMEX workshop, Bologna, 8-10 June 2010“HyMeX and TIGGE-LAM”Laurent Descamps, Andrea Montani, Tiziana Paccagnella

TP is soliciting contributions to the LAM EPS activities

Andrea Montani from the Panel is one of the two coordinators of LAM EPS activities


Some Concluding Remarks

The PlanI hope we have the Plan finalized before July 2011.Actions will be regularly updated (?)



TIGGE LAM activities, even if planned , are generally very difficult to be concretized. The lack of devoted resources is one of the reasons but probably much more could be done, even without funds. One of the obstacle in stimulating coordinated actions among TIGGE LAM groups, is the difficulty to perceive the added value given by the cooperation mainly due to the sparseness and non homogeneity of LAM EPS initiatives.



TIGGE LAM was set up as a separate branch of TIGGE but now, to support its effective development, it is necessary to start its real integration in GIFS/ TIGGE whenever it is possible.

This concept should be reflected in the GIFS plan with corresponding objectives and actions in the TIGGE LAM plan.


Thank you!

tigge lam report tiziana paccagnella

Documents

future lam eps systems

tigge lam panel action

tiggelam databaseaction

tigge lam data policyaction

local perturbations

modelling applicationslam

tigge plan

larger scale perturbations