RO KF1OA HQC VA CONG NGFIF. CONG 1-10A XA 1-101 CHU NGHIA V1CT NAM Dtic Iap - Ty. do - Flynt) pluic

S6: 13(SIBKHCN-VCLCS V/v: hugngcliin tinh town ket qua

thtrc hien mot , muc tieu cila Chien Iliac phat trien K11&CN giai dean 2011-2020

Ha N;f5i, ngay

AP S6 1155

DEN Ngay 0? 13--

tiitxr0-vresikdlit' TINH KHANH HOA

S0 Kinh (>0 [CR° cac („-ct „„a 1--fot Lau he so so-. Ch

Tai ,Quyet dinh s6 418/QD-TTg ngdy 11/4/2012 dm Thu Wang Chinh phe duyet Chien lugc •phat trier' khoa hoc va cOng nghe giai doan 2011-2020 (sau day goi tat la Chien lugc) da neu r6 cdc B6, nganh va dia phucmg co trdch nhiem cu the hod Binh huang nhiem vu phdt trien khoa hoc va cong nghe dm Chien lugc vao ke hoach hang nam, chien lugc phat trien nganh va dia phticmg minh; xay dung, dlat hang nhiem vu phdt trien khoa hoc va cong nghe va chi dao thuc hien ke hOach img dung khoa hoc va cong nghe trong nganh va dia phuang minh.

De phuc vu viec clanh gid tinh hinh thuc hien Chien lugc tai cdc dia phuang, BO Khoa hoc va COng nghe da va dang trien khai xay dung cdc huong dan phucmg phdp tinh town mot s6 muc tieu chir yeu dm Chien lugc.

Buck dAu, BO Khoa hoc va Cong nghe xin giri tai Sa KH&CN cdc tinh va thanh pho hung dan phucmg phdp tinh town 02 muc tieu cita Chien lugc bao gOm: 1) nang suit yeu to tong hop (TFP); 2) gid tri san phAm CNC va san pham tang dung CNC trong gid tri san xuat cong nghiep (Phu luc kern theo).

nghi So KH&CN cdc tinli va thanh ph6 tham lchao, dp dung de tinh toan cdc muc tieu Chien lugc phuc vu cho viec.clanh gid tinh hinh thgc hien Chien lugc cua dia phuang minh.

■.■

den qud trinh thtrc hien, moi thong tin trao d6i can thiet có the lien he truc

tip den cdc don vi dugc BO Khoa hoc va C6ng nghe giao nhiem vu xay dung phucmg phdp tinh town (neu tai phAn Phu luc).

1111011:

- Nhix tren; - Lau: VT, V9.,fx5j,..,

BO TRUONG

• Phu lyc

HU'ONG DAN PHUONG PHAP TINH TY TRONG CIA TRI SAN PHAM CONG NGHE CAO VA SAN PHAM UNG DUNG CONG NGHE CAO TRONG TONG GIA TRI SAN XUAT

CONG NGHIEP CUA CAC TINH, THANH PHO

Kern theo Cong van so 2389/BKHCN-VCLCS ngay 06/7/2015 cOa BO Khoa hoc va Cong ngW

1- KHAI NIEM VE SAN PHAM CONG NGHE CAO VA SAN PHAM LANG DUNG CONG NGHE CAO

Hien nay, Viet Nam mai ban hanh Danh muc san pham cong nghe cao (SPCNC) dugc khuyen khich phat trien (theo Quyet dinh so 66/2014/QD-TTg cua Thu Wang Chinh phu ngdy 25/11/2014).

B6 KH&CN xay dung Danh muc SPCNC de tinh toan ty trong dva tren bang phan loci SPCNC caa UNIDO nam 2011.

Ngodi ra, den nay ding chua co khai niem r6 rang doi "san pham tang dung cong nghe cao" (SPUDCNC).

II- CONG THeC TINH TOAN

1- TS/ trong gia tri SPCNC, SPUDCNC trong tong gia tri san xuat cong nghiep cua mot nam = tong gia tri san xuat cua cac SPCNC va SPUDCNC trong 1 nam/t6ng gia tri san xuat cong nghiep dugc tao ra trong nam do dm dia phuang.

2- Nhu vay de tinh toan dugc tST trong gia tri SPCNC, SPUDCNC trong tong gia tri san xuat cong nghiep dm hang nam tai cac tinh, thanh pho thi phai thu thap va tinh toan dugc cac du lieu theo cac km y sau day:

- Dua tren each tinh hien nay dm TOng cuc Th6ng ke, GDP dm Viet Nam dugc tinh bang gia tri tang them ciia toan nen kinh te, bao g6m gia tri tang them cua:

• Nang nghiep, lam nghiep va thus' san (dugc goi la khu vuc 1); • Cong nghiep va xay dung (khu vuc 2); • Dich vu (khu vuc 3).

Vi chi tieu dat ra lien quan toi Gia tri san xuat cong nghiep nen cac tinh toan se tap trung khu vuc 2.

- Theo TOng cijc Th6ng ke, cong nghiep dugc chia thanh 4 nhom nganla cap 1 nhir sau:

• Khai khoang; • Cong nghiep chez bien, chez tao; • San xuat va phan phi dien, khi dot, nuac nong, hai nuac & dieu hOa kh6ng

khi; • Cung cap turac; hoat d6ng quan va rac thai, mak thai.

1

- Theo he thong,thong ke ma 8 s6 do I-Ong -cuc Theing ke qui - dinh, 4 nhom nganh cap 1 cua cong nghiep dugc chia thanh tong cong 3.082 nhom san phAm. Moi nhOm san pham dugc ma hod boi 8 chit so va sap xep phan theo tirng phan nganh cu the. Nhu vlay, nhiem vu dAt ra là can xac dinh dau la SPCNC va SPUbCNC de tien hanh tinh toan trong s6 3.082 nhOm san phAm neu tren

III- NG UON S6 LIEU DE TINH TOAN

- S6 lieu dugc sir dung de tinh town phai dugc lay tir nguon s6 lieu chinh thirc tit Cuc Th6ng ke cua dia phuang.

- Can cir vao danh muc 3.082 nh6m san phAm cong nghiep do T6ng cuc Th6ng

ke ban hanh va tham lchao danh muc cac SPCNC va SPUtICNC do B6 KHCN xay

dung, cac dia phuang chu clOng xay dung danh muc cac san phAm CNC va san phAm

irng dung CNC do dia phuang do san xuAt.

IV- Vi DV CV THE VE TINH TOAN

Vi du.: Gia tri san xuAt cong nghiep tinh A nam 2013 la X. Gia tri san phAm CNC la X1 va san phAm irng dung CNC la X2. Vay ty trong gia tri san phAm CNC va san phAm irng dung CNC caa tinh A trong nam do se dugc tinh nhu sau:

(X1 + X2) x 100% NO X%

Ghi chti: so lieu tir ngujn thong ke ctia tinh

Ghi cha: Moi that mac can giai c-iap va cac trao cloi trong qua trinh tinh toan chi tieu, cle nghi lien he voi 'Ong Nguyen Quang Lich, chuyen vien Vu Cong nghe cao, BO Khoa hoc va Cong nghe, DT: 0912969351; PhOng 802, 113 Trjn Duy Hung, Ha Noi de: clu-or hu-6.ng

X

Phu lye II IX SAN PHAM CONG NGHt,' CAO KHUYEN KHiCH PHAT TRIEN

em theo Quye't clinh so 66/2014/QD-77g ng 11 nam 2014 clia Thiittrong Chinh plui)

1. He dieu hanh cho may tinh, cac thiet bi di Ong; he quan tri CC/ so. du lieu; phan mem nen tang cung cap dich vu gia tri gia tang;

2. Phan mem dam bao an ninh, an town mang va bao mat thong tin Or mirc cao;

3. Phan mem va giai phap xac thug da you t6;

4. Phan mem nhan dang chfix viet, hinh anh va am thanh, dr chi, chuyen &Ong, Y nen" va sinh trac hoc;

5. Phan mem dieu khien thiet bi Tau cu"Oi mang the he sau. Soft phone va codecs ho troy da dich vu iron nen mang the he sau;

6. Phan mem cho he thong Ung dung RFID;

7. Phan mem xa ly thOng tin Y - Sinh;

8. PhA.n mem nen chuyen dung cho do Itrimg va. dieu khien;

9. Phan mem va dich vu Ung dung trong he thong giao thong thong minh;

10. Dich vu thiet ke va t6i Liu hoa cac mang luOi va he thOng vin thOng trong ha tang vien thong quOc gia;

11. Dich vu tich hop he thOng dien wan dam may;

12. Dich vu tIch hop he thOng Ung dung Internet IPv6, Internet di deng, Web the he meri;

13. Thiet bi ky thuat so xir 1Y va truyen du lieu to &Ong;

14. Thiet bi hru tra cicr lieu dung luting Ign;

15. The thong minh va dau doc the thong minh;

16. The RFID, thiet bi doc the RFID;

17. Thiet bi nhan dang chir viet, tieng noi, hinh anh, cd chi, chuyen dOng, nghi va sinh trac hoc;

18. Thiet bi dam bao an ninh, an toan mang va bao mat thong tin O. mirc cao;

19. He thOng thiet bi ngoi nha thong minh;

20. He th'Ong thiet bi diet' khien thong mirth cho nha luai, nha kinh;

21. He thong dieu khien giao thong thong mirth;

22. Thiet bi, phan mem, phu kien mang the he sau (NGN, LTE-A, IMT-advanced);

23. Webcam the he mai; thief bi khuech dai am tan ic-y thudt so; bO tang am ky/

thuat so;

24. Thiet bi dau cuoi di deng thOng minh the he mai;

25. Cac thiet bi thu, phat va chuyen d8i tin hieu sir dung trong truyen hinh so the he thin 2 va cac the he sau;

26. Thiet bi truy cap vo tuyen indoor/outdoor the he mai;

27. May tinh song song, may tinh hieu nang cao;

28. Man hinh dO phan giai cao;

29. Linh kien ban din dien tir cong suit the he mai;

30. Vi mach dien tir tich hap (IC);

3.1. Cam 'Dien va co cau chdp hanh thong minh;

32. Chip sinh hoc; cam bien sinh hoc;

33. San phdm, mach dien tir linh hoat (FE);

34. He thOng vi co dien tir (MEMS), nano co dien tir (HEMS) va cac thiet bi img dung;

35. Deng co dien co nhO có tinh nang va chat luting cao;

36. TO may phat dien co cong suit tir 50 MW tra len;

37. May phat cho nha may nhiet dien cong suit 600 MW ter len;

38. He thong phat dien clUng nang luting gio, mat triyi, thily trieu, song bien, dia nhiet;

39. May bien ap 500 kV tra len;

40. He SCADA cho ltrai dien. BO baove ra le Icy thuat so cho he thOng dien;

41. BO bien doi dien nang thOng minh tir nang luting giO va mat trod; tam pin nang prong mat trbi hieu suit cao va than thien m8i trirafng;

42. Thiet bi bien doi dien tir cong suit dung cho tram phat dien nang luting tai tao, truyen tai dien thong minh, cac he truyen deng dien cong nghiep, cac be ngu8n dien phan de -1g dien 16-n clUng trong cong nghiep boa chat va tuyen quang;

43. Pin, ac quy có hieu nang cao, dung luting Ian; cac bo tich luy dien nang dung sieu to dien;

44. Thiet bi va dung cu do dac, quan frac ky thuat se;

45. May do lchoang cach bang laser;

46. Thtrac cap cac loci vii de chinh xac den 10 micromet (microns); panme cac loaf co do chinh xdc cao;

47. May chieu bien ding;

2

48. May va dung cu ky thuat se do luu lucmg, dp suat ctia chAt long, chAt k.hi; 49. Thiet bi va dung cu kS% thuat so phan tich 1y hoa;

50. Thiet bi va dung cu ky thuat so do do nhot, do xep, do gian na, sire tang be mat;

51. Thiet bi va dung cu ky thuat se do nhiet luting, am prang va anh sang;

52. May hien song, may phan tich phe, may do birc xa sir dung Icy, thuat so;

53. Cad be dieu khien, giam sat tv clang va cac ca cau chap harsh cho cac he thong thiet bi deng be trong cac nhamay loc h6a dau, nha may dien, nha may xi mang 16 quay, day chuyen san xuat thvc pham, ducfc pham, phan bon, che hien nong, lam, thily, hal san va ding trinh daily;

54.'130 dieu khien se (CNC) cho cac may cong cu va cac may gia cong the tao;

55. Thiet bi dieu khien va he thong to clang cho cac loai may nang ha c6 trong tai len;

56. He thong to deng can bang trong tau thily;

57. Can cL tau they ce lan, can true tai trong len;

58. Thiet bi nang ha tai trong len;

59. Gian khoan to nang, gian khoan nira not nira chim cho khai that dau khi;

60. May trung tam gia cong co khi do chinh xac cao the he mai;

61. Robot cong nghiep chuei he, robot song song c6 3 bac to do tre len;

62. Deng co AC servo chuyen dung, he truyen dang servo nhieu true, hap giam toe c6 de chinh xac cao cho robot va. may CNC;

63. Khuan rnAu k51 thuat có do chinh xac cao;

64. May canh tic, cham sec, thu hoach va sau thu hoach the he mei;

65. He thong thiet bi the bien va bao quan'thuc phAm co quy ma cong nghiep;

66. Thiet bi chAn doan hinh anh;

67. He thong luu giir va truyen hinh anh cho y to (PACS);

68. He thong xet nghiem to &Ong va deng ba;

69. Thiet bi tham do chirc nang;

70. Thiet bi chAn doan va dieu tri ung thu, tim mach;

71. Thiet bi laser y te;

72. Thiet bi vi phAu ky thuat se;

73. Thiet bi not soi chAn doan va dieu tri;

74. Thiet bi tiern truyen ter clang;

3

75. lioa chat, sinh phAm phuc vu cho cac he thOng xet nghiern to de■ ng va

clang b(j;

76. Vat lieu va san pham cay ghep, can thiep vao co the con ngubi;

77. Kinh hien vi quang hoc phirc hop;

78. Thau kinh, tang kinh, kinh.ap trong chat Iugng cao;

79. Thiet bi. tao tia laser cong suit I6n (trig diet laser);

80. ye tinh va thiet bi ve tinh;

81. Thiet bi va tram thu phat did cuei ciaa ve tinh;

82. Thiet bi irng dung cong nghe dinh vi toan cau;

83. Thiet bi bay va phan mem xir ly du lieu thu nhan tir thiet bi bay;

84. Ging cay treng vat nth:3i xuat khau chia luc mod duoc tao ra.tren nen ding nghe te bao c6 nang suit cao, sach benh, chat luo:ng cao dupe san xuat quy me cong nghiep;

85. Gieng cac loai thug, hai san co chat prong cao, sach benh, tang trueng tot Ira kha rang Ichang benh cao v6i quy mo cong nghiep;

86. Che pham vi sinh vat dung trong .nong nghiep, bao quan va the bien nOng, lam, thtly, hai san, lY mei truong dat tieu chuan quec te;

87. Cac loai phan bon, thuc bao ve thuc vat the he rn6i dat tieu chuan quac te;

88. Thu6c dieu hoa sinh truerng cho cay treng; thuc kith duc te they san the .-

he mai dat tieu chuan quec t6;

89. Be KIT chin doan met se.benh ciaa cay treng, vat nuoi;

90. Cac hormone to nhien, tong hop va dtroc pham ch(ra hormone;

91. Vac-xin ADN tai te hop, Vac-xin protein tai to hop dung cho ngu6i, gia gia cam va thUy san;

92. Vac-xin da lien, da gia.;

93. T8 bao, me va cac co quan thay the chrgc tao ra lir to bao gee;

94. Be KIT than doan cac loai benh, !dem soat an toan thuc pham cho ngtrai;

95. Dich vu giam dinh gen;

96. Vat lieu ban dan cho the tao vi mach dien ur tich hop (IC);

97. Vjt lieu cho the tao linh kien vi co dien tir va cam bien theo nguyen ly mei;

98. Vat lieu quang dien tir va quang tla;

99. Vat lieu c6 de tinh !chi& cao san xuat bang cong nghe chiet voi quy me cong nghiep;

4

100. Vat lieu sieu deo, sieu ben, sieu nhc, than thien vii mOi truang;

101. Vat lieu composite nen kim loci, composite nen cao phan tir irng dung trong k-y thuat dien - dien tir sir dung trong mai truang khAc nghiet, trong xay dung ben voi khi hau nhiet dot

102. Vat lieu polyme sinh hoc ca kha fling to phan htly; polyme sieu hap thu nu& sir dung nguyen lieu not ctia;

103. Scm chuyen dung cao cap, than thien veri moi truang;

104. Vat lieu cao su kjf thuat, cao su tong hop chuyen dung phtic vu cho nganh the tao may, dien, then tir;

105. Vat lieu gOm sir Icy thuat cho dog nghiep dien, dien tir;

106. Sqi cacbon cuang dO cao clUng cho vat lieu composite;

107. Vat lieu tIch trir va chuyen ft& !fang luting mai;

108. Vat lieu tU cao cap sir dung trong linh vuc nang luting;

109. Vat lieu nano cao cap cho cong nghiep, nong nghiep, y te, sinh hoc va mOi truang;

110. San pham phis ming mong bang cong nghe ling dong vat 13', tir pha hai (PVD) va ling dong.hoa hoc tit pha hai (CVD);

111. Ong composite, cac phu kien ghep not chiu ap Itrc cao va ch6ng an mon hoa chat img dung trong cOng nghiep;

112. Thep hop kim dac biet ca do ben cao dung trong cOng nghiep va xay dung;

113. Thep tam, the') hinh kho Ion, the') 6ng khong han chat lugng cao;

114. NhOm phAm cap cao san xuat bang cong ngh'e dien phan vii (long dien 500 kA.

5

Phu hy 2

HUIJNG DAN PHVONG PHAP TINH BONG GOP CI:TA MUC TIEU TFP VAC, TANG TRVONG GDP TAI CAC TINH, THANH PHO

Kern theo Cong van so 2389/BKHCN-VCLCS ngay 06/7/2015 cita BO Khoa hoc va Cong nghe

I- ICHAI NIEM VE TFP

1) Trong tang throng kinh t6, ngodi tac clang dm tac d6 tang cac y6u to dau vao nhu "lao d6ng" va "von", can c6 sty (long gap rat lon tir viec khai thac va sir dung hieu qua cita lao d6ng va van, dugc minh hoa bang ham san suat Cobb Douglas nhu sau:

Y = A. f(Ku L1')

Trong do:

- Y: la tang dau ra;

- K: van;

- L: lao dOng;

- a, (3: he so dOng g6p cua van va lao d6ng

- A: la ke't qua dau ra tir viec khai tilde va sir dung hieu qua van va lao dang, con dugc goi la nang suat yeu to tong hgp (TFP - Total Factor Productivity)

2) Nang suat y61.1 to tong hgp la Itht qua ,dau ra tang them dugc tao ra nh6 tac d6ng cita cac yeu to nhu nang cao chat lugng ve von, tang cuOng ap dung cac tien ba cita khoa hoc va cong nghe, hop l'Y hod qua trinh san xuat/cung cap dich vu, cai lien phuong phap quanb"7, nang cao trinh d6, kS nang lam viec cua nguoi lao Ong v.v...

3) Su phat tri6n cua kinh t6 Vi't Nam trong nhfing thap kST qua chit y6u phu thu6c vao tang truang ctia cac yeti to dau la van va lao d6ng. Khi cac yeu to dau vao san co va re thi chien lugc nay rat phit hgp. Khi nen kinh to Oat trien mirc cao ben canh chin lugc tang truOng dtra vao dau vao, thi can phai dinh huang vao nang cao hieu qua sir dung nguon van va lao dOng, do la nang cao nang suat y6u to tang hgp — TFP, trong do khoa hoc va cong nghe c6 vai tr6 chit dao trong viec thitc day tang TFP.

4) Dong gap cua nang suat y6u to tang hgp (TFP) vao tang truOng GDP dm cac ntrOc phat tri6n thuOng mirc 50-60% hoac hon. Nht-rng nuac dang phat triehn vai the do nhanh nhu Malaysia, Thai Lan, Trung Quac, dong g6p cua tang TFP vao tang truOng kinh thuarng dat mire 30 — 35%'. Theo tinh toan dm Tang cue Thong ke va Vien Nang suat Viet Nam, clang g6p cua TFP vao tang truong GDP cia'.a Viet Nam giai doan 2011-2014 dat khoang 26%.

Theo APO Productivity Databook 2014 va Malaysia Productivity Report.

1

II- LONG THec TINH TOAN

1) Phuang phap chung cue tinh nang sudt yeti to tong hop (TFP) la dua theo ham san xuat Cobb-Douglas: Y = A. f(Ka Li3) va mo hinh s6 du Solow, theo dO: t6c d6 tang cita dau ra (GDP) la do su tac dOng cua t6c d6 tang v6n, the d6 tang lao dOng va t6c d6 tang TFP.

Phan gong gop caa TFP trong tang truang GDP doge tinh bang phuang phap tit lui = tang truang GDP nil. di phan tang GDP do &Mg gop ciia tang von va phan tang GDP do dOng gOp cua tang lao Ong.

2) Cong thirc khai quat de tinh dOng gop cua TFP vao tang twang GDP doge chuyen dang logarit tir ham san xuat Cobb-Douglas. Cong thirc nay hien dang doge T6 chirc Nang suAt Chau A (APO) va cac ca quan lien quan dm Viet Nam sir dung nhu sau:

g(TFPt) = g(Yt) — a*g(Kt) — 13*.g(Lt)

Trong do

- g(Yt): la the d6 tang GDP

- g(Kt): the d6 tang von (tai san c6 dinh)

- g(Lt): the d6 tang dm lao dOng

- a la he s6 &Mg gop cua v6n, la he s6 dOng gOp cua lao dOng

- a + (3 = 1

3) Nhu vaycue tinh toan doge phan (long gop cua TFP vao tang truang GDP hang nam tai cac tinh, thanh ph6 thi phai thu thap va tinh toan doge cac du lieu sau:

-

S6 lieu ye tang tru6ng GDP ciia cac nam tinh toan

- Tinh toan doge t6c d6 tang von cua cac nam can tinh toan

- T6c d6 tang ciia lao d6ng cua cac nam can tinh toan

- Tinh dirge he s6 clang g6p cua v6n (a) hoc he s6 &Mg g6p cua lao dOng ((3) trong tang truang GDP (do a + = 1 vi vay chi can tinh 1 he s6).

III- NGUON S6 LIEU DE TiNH TOAN

1) GDP: sir dung s6 lieu GDP theo gia so sanh trong Nien giam Thong ke.

2) Tinh toan the d6 tang caa v6n:

- Viec tinh the d6 tang cua von cue xac dinh mire dap gop cua von trong tang truong GDP can sir dung nguon s6 lieu la Von chuyen hoa vao san xuat (Capital service), IcS7 hieu la Kr. Hien tai, he thong tai khoan quoc gia khong co san s6 lieu ve Kr, nhung c6 the tinh doge qua cong thirc: Kr = 6 Sp, trong do:

2

+ 6, la he s6 sir dung v6n: giup chuyen tir von tich My (Capital Stock) sang von chuyen hoa vao san xuat (Capital Service). 6 = (ror + 5 — H).

• ror: lai tir von;

• 5: tST le khau hao

• t6c d6 tang giam gia von

+ Sp la gia tri tich lay tai san, trong do S la tich lay tai san, p la gia cua tai san.

- Tuy nhien, viec xir 1ST s6 lieu de tinh toan Kr la kha phirc tap vi vay hien tai nhieu nu& (trong do co Viet Nam) sir dung s6 lieu Von tich hay (Capital stock) de tinh toan.

- V6n tich lay &roc tinh tir ngu6n du lieu ve von dAu to trir di khau hao (50.

3) Tinh toan t6c d6 tang cua lao d6ng: sir dung s6 lieu ve Lao d6ng dang lam viec trong Nien giam Th6ng ke.

4) Tinh he s6 dOng gOp cua von (a) va he s6 &Mg g6p cua lao dOng ((3):

- De tinh he se) a can phai c6 ngu6n s6 lieu ve V6n chuyen hoa vao san xuat (Kr), tuy nhien, hien ngu6n se) lieu thong Ice tai Viet Nam chua san c6 va thuan tien de tinh toan Kr vi vay hien dang &roc xir 1ST bang cach tinh he so dOng g6p cua lao d6ng (p), va suy ra a = 1- (3.

- He se) dOng gop cua lao dOng ((3) &roc tinh bang cong thirc: R = Thu nhap cua lao dOng/ Gia tri gia tang.

- Thu nhap cua lao d6ng &roc tinh tir ngu6n s6 lieu: Dieu tra ve thu nhap cua lao d6ng hoac xir 1ST tir du lieu ve thu nhap binh quan cua nguoi dan tir nguon Nien giam Thong ke.

IV- HIIONG DAN TiNH SO LIEU VON VA HE S6 P

1) XII. ly so lieu ve von

So lieu de tinh t6c d6, tang dia. v6n hoac tai san co' dinh kh6ng co san va ding khong the tong hop true tip tir cac don vi, cac nganh de duoc con so tong cong chung toan tinh, thanh ph6. Do vay, viec tinh toan duoc thuc hien gian tiep, cu the:

a) Tinh von (K) cuai nom

K cu6i nam = K diu nam + K tang them — K giant

VI du, vOi mirc khau hao 6%

K cu6i nam = K dal nam + Tich lily TSCD x 0,97 - K dau nam x 0,06

Neu coi khau hao tai san khoang 20 nam thi lay s6 lieu lui ye 20 nam tuft do (vi du tinh nam hien tai là 2009 thi 15 nam tuft dO là nam 1990) lam nam g6c, dimg s6 lieu Tich lay tai san c6 dinh ctia nam 1990 là s6 lieu .NTs V6n co dinh.

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b) Tinh K trong nam:

K trong nam = (K dAu nam + K cuoi nam)/ 2

Sau khi c6 so lieu ciia tirng nam, se tinh &roc t6c d6 tang dm tirng nam va t6c d6 tang binh quan cua giai do4n.

S6 li'41 ve tai san c6 dinh tinh theo phuong phap gian tiep teen co. so. Ong d6n tich luy tai san co dinh (trong doi vai gia tri tai san co dinh mai tang theo gia so sanh) con 14i sau khi da tit khau hao qua cac nam.

c) So lieu y'd khau hao

Trugc day dua vao tS, le khau hao caa 13;;) Tai chinh (tuft day la 5%), sau nay thoi gian khAu hao ngan di nen ty le khau hao tang len.

Tuy nhien, khAu hao 14i phu thu'6c vao loaf tai san. Trong th6ng ke qu6c gia, chia tai san thanh 4 nhom tai san lan:

-

Nha xuang; - May mac thi6t bi; - Phuong tien van tai; - NhOm khac: vuan cay, ao ca

B6n nh6m tai san lan tren thi co quy'L s6, nhung moi nhom nh6 (phan loci cu the, chi tiet) thi kh6ng c6 quyen so. De xuat cua nhom: Nh6m tai san c6 dinh phan lo4i cu the thi tinh binh quan, nhom tai san co dinh nhom theo nhom lan thi tinh theo quy&I s6 (tirc la chia theo nganh).

Tuy nhien, den nam 2015 mai th6ng ke theo 4 nhom tai san neu tren. De'n thai diem hien tai, chi co so lieu chung ve gia tri tai san tich luy hoac mai tang. Nen hi0 tai co the dung th6ng qua bang I/O 2007.

Dua vao thong to cua Bo Tai chinh ve thai gian khAu hao cda tirng loai tai san (Thong to so 45/2013/TT-BTC ngay 25/4/2013 hugng dan the dO quan ly, sir dung va trich khau hao tai san co dinh) va bang I/O co so lieu ve gia tri san xuat cua cac loai san pham dugc coi nhu clang tai san co dinh cho san xuat, ta co dugc cac so lieu ve tS, le khau hao. Tuy nhien, thoi gian khau hao,cua 136 Tai chinh cho rraii loai tai san c6 su dao Ong kha lan giita thai gian trich khau hao toi thieu va toi da. Qua phan tich s6 lieu ta c6 tS/ le khAu hao theo cac mire thai gian khau hao nhu sau:

Chenh Penh thod gian khan hao rn6i loai tai san

Min (max - min)/ 2

7/8 (max - min)

3/4 (max- min) Max

J.

7,29 6,17 5,7

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Dua ten nghien ciru thgc to trong nha may, nhiL thik bi da het khau hao nhung van can dugc sir dung, vi Vay, thai gian khau hao thuc t6 thueng dai han mire trung binh theo ly thuyet, vi v4y nhOm de xuat mire khau hao:

- Tir nam 2000 tra ve tru6c, khau hao 5%

- Tir 2001 - 2005, khau hao 5,5%

- Tir 2006 - 2010, khau hao 6%

- Tir 2011 - 2013, khau hao 6,5%.

Nhirng nam cang gan day, cong nghe thay d6i cang nhanh chong, mile do thay the cong nghe, thiet bi cang nhanh, nen mire khau hao tang len.

Trong nien giam th6ng Ice toan qu6c, de co dugs gia tri tai san tang trong nam, ta sir dung chi tieu ve "gia tri tai san meti tang" hoac "tich hay tai san co dinh". Nhung vi nien giam thong ke cua tinh khong c6 chi tieu nay, nen ta diing dau tu von co dinh de thay the:

Nien giam th6ng ke cua tinh c6 muc "Thuc hien von dau to phat trien teen dia ban phan theo ngutm von theo gia hien hanh".

Sir dung: "V6n dau tu xay dung ca ban (Investment outlays)" + "V6n dau tu mua sam TSCD khong qua XDCB (Investment in procuring fixed assets without investment outlay)" + Vern dau tu sira chita, nang cap tai san c6 dinh (Investment in reparing and upgrading fixed aset).

,Vi trong nien giam th6ng ke NT tinh tir nam 2010 trO " truac thu6ng chi se) von dau ,tu theo gia hien hanh, nen can phai deli sang gia so sanh thi mOi c6 the loci be) yeu to truot gia.

d) Cad, tinh chi sa girl

* Phuvng phdp guy dai van &la ttr theo giri hien hanh sang gid so stinh

Cach tinh chi se) gia dinh ge)c:

- T6c dc) phat trien lien hoan

ti = Zw/ Z (i-1)

- T6c d6 phat then dinh g6c:

Ti Z(j) Z(1)

Giira the c16 phat trien clinh g6c va the c16 phat then lien hoan c6 moi quan he nhau: the de.) Oat trien dinh goe bang tich so cac toe d6 phat trien lien hoar), dirge

the hien bang cong thirc nhu sau:

Tn = t, X t3 X X t n =

- Chi se) gia lien hodn:

ipq = ip x iq 5

Trong do ipq c d6 thay de)i ve gia va luting

ip: the d6 thay d6i ve luting

iq : to'c d6 thay d6i ve gia

iP = iP9 / lq

Lay Gia tri san xuat theo gia thgc to caa nam sau chia cho nam truOc de tinh toe d6 phat trien cua ea gia va luting (ipq).

Lay Giatri san xuat theo gia so sanh nam sau chia cho nam truOc, tinh &roc chi so plat trien ye luting (iq).

Lay chi s6 phat trien ca gia va *mg, chia cho chi s6 phat trim ve luting (in) => Chi so gia lien hoan.

- Chi s6 gia dinh g6c:

1\46i quanh' gifia t6c d6 phat trien dinh g6c va the dO phat trim lien hoan:

=t2 xt3 x xtn =Fit i

Ipq = Ip x Iq

Trong dO Ipq : the do thay d6i ve gia va luting

the d6 thay d6i ve luting

Iq :

the d6 thay d6i ve gia

a IP = Ipq /Iq

Lay Gia tri san xuat theo gia thgc to cua nam i chia cho nam goc de tinh the d6 phat trien dia ca gia va luting (Ipq).

Lay Gia tri san xuat theo gia so sanh caa nam i chia cho nam g6c, tinh ducfc chi se) phat trien ve luting (Iq).

Lay chi s6 phat trien ca gia va luong, chia cho chi s6 phat trim ve luting (In) => Chi s6 gia dinh g6c.

Trong twang hop khong co s6 lieu ve gia tri san xuat thi sir dung GDP.

2) Tinh he s6 (long g6p ciia lao dOng (h'e' se; (3)

p = Thu nhap caa lao &Ong/ Gia tri gia tang gia co ban.

Trong s6 lieu cna V* Nam, khOng co gia tri ve thu nhap cua lao d6ng hang nam, tuy nhien trong bang I/O nam 2007, có s6 lieu ve thu cua ngtrai lao,dOng va Gia tri gia tang gia ea ban, vi vay co the lay nam 2007 lam chuan de quy doi cho nhang nam khac.

VI nhang dieu kien ve so lieu, nen nhom sir dung each tinh 13 = thu nh4 ctia lao d6ng/Gia tri gia tang theo gia ea ban.

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He s6 13 bang tS/ se) gitla thu nhap cua ngu6i lao Ong va gia tri tang them, con a = 1-13.

Khi ap dung ding thirc tinh tOc d6 tang TFP, can luu )", la do dac diem hach toan ctia Viet Nam, thu nhap ctia ngued lao Ong (thu thap tir so sach ke toan hoac tir so lieu thong ke) mai chi g6m phan thu nhap chinh cua ho (thu nhap true tiep), con mot s6 khoan thu nhap dugi clang khdc nhu tien,dOng bao hiem y te, bao hiem xa h6i do doanh nghiep, don vi dam nhan, tien mua sam quan do bao 116 lao d6ng (thu nhap khdc) thi thu6ng chua dugc tinh vao thu nhap. Thuc te dO da lam cho cdc he so a va 13 tinh theo so lieu hien c6 se bi thu hep (13 bi thu hep, con a bi cueing dieu).

De phan anh chinh xdc mire d6 &rig g6p cua lao d6ng va von vao qud trinh tao ra ket qua san xuat, he so phai dugc tinh tren co se/ thu nhap day di' cua ngued lao Ong (bao gom ca thu nhap true tiep va thu nhap khdc) theo cong thirc:

Thu nhap day du ctia ngued lao (Icing

Gid tri gia tang

Va a = 1- p.

Vi tren thuc te' chi co s6 lieu ve thu nhap true tiep nen khong the xdc dinh thu nhap day du bang each Ong thu nhap true tiep \Tod thu nhap khdc, ma phai tinh toan giant tiep qua he so dieu chinh nhu sau:

Thu, nhap day ducna nguai lao clOng = Thu nhap true tiep cna nguari lao dOng + He so dieu chinh.

He se) dieu chinh bang tS, s6 gifra thu nhap day du va thu nhap khdc dugc tinh town dua tren so lieu dieu tra chuyen de 6 pham vi hep vao mot nam nao do roi dimg de tinh toan cho nhieu nam. Hien nay so lieu ye thu nhap cita ngu6i lao Ong theo bang I/O cita Tong cuc Th6ng ke phan dnh khd sat thuc thu nhap cita ngtr6i lao d'Ong nen xem d6 la thu nhap day du va lay dO lam can cir de tinh toan he so 13.

Tinh p, lay theo bang I/O 2007

13 = Thu nhap/ Gid tri tang them

Gia tri tang them tinh theo gid co ban

Sir dung bang can dOi lien nganh I/O nam 2007, trang 397, muc 142 (thu cna ngubi lao d'Ong) va muc 148 (gia tri tang them).

Tinh duo'c là:

566075819 — 0,57

981614224

Dieu chinh cho nhirng nam khdc kh6ng c6 trong ban I/O:

He se)13= (thu nhap binh quail dau ngu6i)/Gid tri gia tang theo gid co ban

SO lieu thu nhap dugc lay trong phieu dieu tra mire song clan cu. Tinh cho cdc nam de dieu chinh. Nhung s6 lieu chi c6 2 nam/ lan nen tinh dung cho 2 nam.

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Nhung vi bang I/O chi c6 cua nam 2007 nen nhiing nam khac phai tinh dua ten di'eu tra mirc song dan cu. Sau c16 dieu chinh theo nam moc la nam 2007.

Tuy nhien trong qua trinh tinh toan can hru

13 = thu nhap cua ngued lao d6ng / Gia tri gia tang theo gia co. ban.

Ngodi nam 2007, nhfing nam khac kh6ng co dugc s6 lieu, ye thus nhap cua ngu6i lao d6ng mot cach day di', nen can xir 1/ so lieu thOng qua so lieu ve thu nhap binh quan clau nguoi/ thong theo gia hien hanh.

V- vi DU CU THE YE TINH TOAN

1) Xir 157 s6 lieu tinh v6n co dinh

Bang 1: Tinh v6n c6 dinh cuOi nam va binh quan nam tir 2009 den 2014 Dan vi tinh: If/ gong

Nam TSCD c6 dau nam

% TSCD con 14i sau KH

TSCD con lai sau KH

TSCD tang them

% TSCD moi tang con tai

TSCD mai tang con lai

Tling TSCD ..

con 141 cuoi ram

TSCD BQ nam

(1 ) (2) (3) (1)x(2)

(4) (5) (6) =

(4)x(5) (7) = (3)+(6) (8)

((1)+(7))/2

2009 43794 0,94 41166,69 9786 0,97 9492 50659 47227

2010 50659 0,94 47619,28 9167 0,97 8892 56511 53585

2011 56511 0,935 52838,04 10373 0,9675 10036 62874 59693

2012 62874 0,935 58787,11 11720 0,9675 11339 70126 66500

2013 70126 0,935 65568,01 13668 0,9675 13224 78792 74459

2014 (trOc) 78792 0,935 73670,33 14726 0,9675 14247,41 87918 83355

Ghi chic so lieu cot 1 nam 2009 la tang tai san tich ceing dan tit nam 1990 den 2008 (vai ti; le kluiu hao khoang 5%/iilim thi cac tai san tile& nam 1990 cid het khdu hao). COt 4 la so lieu to Cuc Th(mg ke.

2) Xir 1S7 s6 lieu cue tinh he s6 (3

He s6 p c6 the dugc tinh toan tir s6 lieu thu nhap cda ngued lao d6ng, tuy nhien de don gian cho viec tinh toan, c6 the sir dung he s6 [3 theo nganh cta dugc Vien Nang suat Viet Nam tinh toan cho toan nen kinh to de suy ra he s6 p ap dung cho tinh dua vao co cau kinh t6 cua tinh nhu ben duai.

Bang 2: Xac dinh he s613 cua tinh dua theo co. cAu nganh

Nganh He s6 0 theo nganh2 Ty trong nganh dm tinh

Mang lam nghie'p thily san 0,88 0,30

Cong nghi'ep va xay dung 0,44 0,30

Dich vu 0,64 0,40

He so dp dung cho tinh = 0,88 x 0,30 + 0,44 x 0,30 + 0,64 x 0,40 = 0,652

2 He s6 13 theo nganh dm nen kinh t6 dugc Vien Nang sudt Viet Nam firth town trong bdo cao nang suAt hang nam. 8

3) Vi du ye ld'st qua tinh toan (long gop ciia TFP vao tang truirng GDP

Bang 3: Tinh toe coo tang TFP

Nam GRDP

(ty' &Ong)

Tai sin co Binh

Lao &Ong

Toc dO tang

GRDP

Toc Os tang

von co Binh

• Toc dO tang LD

a 13 Dong

Op dm von

Dong g6p cua

LD

TOc dO tang oh

TFP

TOc dO tang TFP

(%)

Dong g6p dm

tang VOn

Eking g6p dm tang LD

Dong g6p dm

tang TFP

(1 ) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)=(5)x(

7) (10)=(6)x

(8)

(11 ()=

)(4)

- 9 - (10)

(12) = (ex -1) x100

(13) = (9)(4) *100

(14) = (10)/(4)xl

00

(15) = (11)/(4)x1

00

2009 26632 47227 816.8 0.34 0.66

2010 28827 53585 847.2 0.07921 0.12631 0.03654 0.34 0.66 0.0429 0.0241 0.01214 1.22 54.22 30.45 15.33

2011 30221 59693 877.6 0.04720 0.10794 0.03525 0.34 0.66 0.0367 0.0233 -0.01277 -1.27 77.75 49.30 -27.05

2012 32633 66500 875.6 0.07680 0.10799 -0.00228 0.34 0.66 0.0367 -0.002 0.04159 4.25 47.81 -1.96 54.15

2013 34615 74459 892.4 0.05896 0.11305 0.01901 0.34 0.66 0.0384 0.0125 0.00798 0.80 65.19 21.28 13.53

2014 (so NO 37367 83355 910.7 0.07652 0.11286 0.02030 0.34 0.66 0.0384 0.0134 0.02475 2.51 50.15 17.51 32.35

Bq 11-13 0.012266 1.26 63.59 22.87 13.54

Bq 11-14 1.57 60.23 21.53 18.25

Cat 1: tinh bZing LN(Y(t+1)/ Yt); Cat 2: tinh bilng LN(K(t+1)/Kt); Cat 3 tinh bZing LN (L(t+1)/Lt).

Ghi chU: ThOng tin them ye phuong phap xi If) so lieu vci tinh toan TFP xin vui long lien he: Vien Nang su ldt Viet Nam (Nguyjn Le Hoa - 0913309843 ho'k Nguyen Anh Twin - 0913237153) de &roc giai dap va ho tro..

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