tim beechie noaa fisheries, seattle incorporating climate change into restoration planning
TRANSCRIPT
The ESA salmon context
• ESA legal context
– Salmon recovery planning and climate change
– Consultations and climate change
• NOAA science efforts address:
– Vulnerability of populations
– How do we adapt restoration plans and actions to be successful despite climate change?
Adaptation: decision support framework
• Q1: What habitats limit salmon recovery?
• Q2: Does climate change alter habitats limiting recovery?
• Q3: Does the restoration plan reduce climate change effects?
• Q4: Does the restoration plan increase habitat diversity and salmon resilience?
Watershed assessment
How have habitats changed and altered biota?
Habitat conditions
Salmon
Humans
Landscapeprocesses
Watershed assessment
Habitat conditions
Salmon
Humans
Landscapeprocesses
What are the root causes of habitat change?
How have habitats changed and altered biota?
The restoration plan
• A restoration plan should: – Identify causes of habitat and salmon declines
– Generate a list of needed restoration actions
– Determine which restoration actions are most important to recovery of the salmon population
Beechie et al. 2013
The restoration plan
• A restoration plan should: – Identify causes of habitat and salmon declines
– Generate a list of needed restoration actions
– Determine which restoration actions are most important to recovery of the salmon population
Beechie et al. 2013
Climate change assessment
Habitat conditions
Salmon
Climatechange
Landscapeprocesses
How does climate change affect all of this?
How have habitats changed and altered biota?
Summer rearing sensitivity
<10°C
14-18°C
10-14°C
18-22°C
22-26°C
>30°C
26-30°C
Below threshold
Near threshold
Above threshold
Ameliorating climate change effects
• Literature review to see if restoration actions can: – Reduce a peak flow effect?
– Reduce a low flow effect?
– Reduce a stream temperature effect?
Beechie et al. 2012
Increasing resilience
• Literature review to see if restoration actions can: – Increase habitat and species diversity so the ecosystem
can better withstand climate change effects?
Beechie et al. 2012
Increase habitat diversity
Levee
Mainstemhabitatsonly
Mainstem
Pond
Floodrefuge
Groundwaterchannel
Side-channel
Waples et al. 2009
Restoration actions and climate change
Restoration action Temperature increase
Low flow decrease
Peak flow increase
Increase resilience
Longitudinal connectivity Y Y N Y
Floodplain connectivity Y N Y Y
Restore incised channel Y Y Y Y
Restore in-stream flow Y Y N N/Y
Riparian rehabilitation Y N/Y N N
Sediment reduction N N N N
In-stream habitat N N N N
Nutrient enrichment N N N N
Restoration actions and climate change
Restoration action Temperature increase
Low flow decrease
Peak flow increase
Increase resilience
Longitudinal connectivity Y Y N Y
Floodplain connectivity Y N Y Y
Restore incised channel Y Y Y Y
Restore in-stream flow Y Y N N/Y
Riparian rehabilitation Y N/Y N N
Sediment reduction N N N N
In-stream habitat N N N N
Nutrient enrichment N N N N
Closing points Q1: Identifying the most important restoration actions
is critical for cost-effective restoration
Q2: Climate change may alter the importance of key restoration actions
Q3: Many restoration actions can reduce climate change effects on stream flow or temperature
Q4: More connectivity and more dynamics are important for ecosystem resilience to climate change