tim copeland and june johnson idaho department of fish & game idaho natural production...
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![Page 1: Tim Copeland and June Johnson Idaho Department of Fish & Game Idaho Natural Production Monitoring & Evaluation Project 1991-073-00](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062618/5514e983550346b0338b5c93/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Tim Copeland and June Johnson
Idaho Department of Fish & Game
Idaho Natural Production Idaho Natural Production Monitoring & Evaluation ProjectMonitoring & Evaluation Project
1991-073-001991-073-00
![Page 2: Tim Copeland and June Johnson Idaho Department of Fish & Game Idaho Natural Production Monitoring & Evaluation Project 1991-073-00](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062618/5514e983550346b0338b5c93/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
• Project history
• Recent results
• Future directions
Today’s Agenda
![Page 3: Tim Copeland and June Johnson Idaho Department of Fish & Game Idaho Natural Production Monitoring & Evaluation Project 1991-073-00](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062618/5514e983550346b0338b5c93/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
The 1980’s
• Idaho Habitat Evaluation for Offsite Mitigation Record (1983-007-00)
• Focus on Idaho’s wild/natural spring/summer Chinook (Steelhead, too!)
• General monitoring– Parr & redd counts, relate to habitat
• Intensive monitoring– Survival & production at 2 sites
![Page 4: Tim Copeland and June Johnson Idaho Department of Fish & Game Idaho Natural Production Monitoring & Evaluation Project 1991-073-00](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062618/5514e983550346b0338b5c93/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
General Parr Monitoring
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Chinook Adult Escapement
![Page 6: Tim Copeland and June Johnson Idaho Department of Fish & Game Idaho Natural Production Monitoring & Evaluation Project 1991-073-00](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062618/5514e983550346b0338b5c93/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
The 1990’s
• Salmon declines & ESA listing
• General monitoring continued
• Mitigation & habitat monitoring?
• Intensive studies changed to ESU
• Focus on downstream passage
• Project data proved very important
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0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002
Brood Year
Red
ds
Co
un
ted
(X
1000
)Wild
Natural/Hatchery-influenced
Chinook Spawning Ground Surveys
Index Area Counts
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Spawner to
Parr
y = 0.0018x - 2.1579
R2 = 0.5444
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000
Wild Spring/Summer Chinook LGR Escapement
Par
r D
ensi
ty (n
o./1
00m
2 )
y = 0.0002x + 1.5573
R2 = 0.6326
0
2
4
6
8
10
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000
Wild A-Run or B-Run LGR Escapement
Yea
rlin
g A
-Run
or
B-R
un
Den
sity
(no.
/100
m2)
(Hall-Griswold & Petrosky 2002)
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-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995
Parr Density Year (year i)
ln(D
en
sit
y i+t/D
en
sit
y i)
WSC t=4.5
NSC t=4.5
W/N t=4.5
Replacement
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994
Parr Density Year (year i)
ln(D
en
sit
yi+
t/De
ns
ity
i)WA t=5.5NA t=5.5WB t=5.5NB t=5.5All t=5.5Replacement
Spawner to
Spawner
(Hall-Griswold & Petrosky 2002)
Chinook
Steelhead
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Chinook Recruit/Spawner Analysis
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
59 64 69 74 79 84 89
Brood Year
Su
rviv
al I
nd
ex
Snake River
LowerColumbia
Schaller et al. 1999
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0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997
Brood year
Sm
olt
-to
-ad
ult
su
rviv
al (
SA
R)
0
50
100
150
200
Sm
olt
s/sp
awn
er
(Petrosky et al. 2001)
Chinook Life Cycle Survival
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Project Benefits
• Excellent trend data set
• Lots of mileage and publications
• Project reports highly cited in regional forums (e.g. PATH & CRI)
• Also some site-specific survival & productivity estimates
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Wild Snake River Chinook & Steelhead
• Monitor population status & trends
• Measure freshwater production
• Effects of habitat projects
• Estimate stage-specific survival
2001-2003 Objectives
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Production & Survival
• Natural chinook smolts/female for basin– Lower Granite Dam data
• Age structure of chinook adult returns to basin– Length frequency analysis at Lower Granite
Dam
• Natural smolt-adult return rate for basin– Lower Granite Dam data– PTAGIS data
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Chinook Freshwater Production Stock-Recruit Analysis
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
0
2,0
00
4,0
00
6,0
00
8,0
00
10
,00
0
12
,00
0
14
,00
0
Estimated Female Escapement
Es
tim
ate
d S
mo
lts
at
LG
R
19941999
1996
1998
1991
1995
19971993
2000
1992
1990
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Smolt Forecast
y = -0.0001x + 5.8736R2 = 0.5133
3
4
5
6
7
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000
Female Escapement
(Ln
) S
mo
lts
pe
r F
em
ale
93
98
92
97
91
90
94
95
96
99
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How well did the model perform?
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
0
10,0
00
20,0
00
30,0
00
40,0
00
50,0
00
60,0
00
Estimated Female Escapement
Est
imat
ed S
mo
lts
at L
GR
Predicted
Observed
After 2003 smolt migration
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Steelhead PIT Tagging
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Steelhead Tagging ResultsMigratory
YearNumber Tagged
Smolts Detected
1999 7195 1200
2000 6525 1330
2001 7430 1708
2002 5395 830
2003 7040 987
Average 6717 1211
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Basinwide Steelhead Trends
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
Migratory Year
SA
R
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
De
tec
ted
3 Ocean SAR
2 Ocean SAR
1 Ocean SAR
# Smolts Detected
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Specific Migration Timing
03/23
/02
04/06
/02
04/20
/02
05/04
/02
05/18
/02
06/01
/02
06/15
/02
Brushy Fork Creek
Chamberlain Creek
North Fork MooseCreek
Whitebird Creek/SlateCreek
Co
llec
tio
n S
ite
Detection Date
10% 50% 90%
Percent ofTotal Detections
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Chinook Fin ray aging & SARs
• Discrepancy between PIT tag returns and scales
• Length at Age x LGR Length Frequency = Length at Age for entire Snake River ESU
• Assign returns back to correct brood year
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Collection Sites
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Fin Rays >97% Accuracy
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2003 Carcass Length at Age
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Fork Length (cm)
Pe
rce
nt
Fre
qu
en
cy 1:1 1:2 1:3 1:4
Ages
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2003 Proportion of Carcass Length at Age
Ocean Age
FL (cm) 1 2 3 4
<50 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
50-54 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
55-59 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
60-64 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
65-69 0.14 0.86 0.00 0.00
70-74 0.00 0.91 0.09 0.00
75-79 0.00 0.90 0.10 0.00
80-84 0.00 0.81 0.19 0.00
85-89 0.00 0.24 0.76 0.00
90-94 0.00 0.07 0.92 0.01
95-99 0.00 0.00 0.96 0.04
100-104 0.00 0.00 0.98 0.02
>104 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00
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Video at LGR Counting Window
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2003 LGR Length FrequencyChart Title
0123
456
Fork length in cm.
Perc
ent F
requ
ency N = 409
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Assigning Ages
Carcass Length at Age data X
Lower Granite Dam lengths of entire run= Length at Age for entire Snake River wild/natural
spring/summer adult chinook salmonX
The total number of wild chinook passing Lower Granite Dam (supplied by TAC)
= Total Number of Chinook in each Smolt Migration Yr.
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Chinook Smolt-to-adult Return Rates
Smolt Migratory Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Smolts 419,826 161,157 599,159 1,560,298 1,344,382 500,700 1,173,566
Adult Returns
1-ocean -- 189 235 1496 1227 463 3203
2-ocean 997 2155 6925 28,168 20,219 11,737 --
3-ocean 456 408 833 17,228 22,408 -- --
4-ocean 0 22 390 571 -- -- --
Total 1453 2774 8383 30,235 43,854 12,200 3203
SAR (%) 0.35 1.72 1.40 3.04 3.26 2.44 0.27
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Summary to Date
• Maintain large trend data sets
• Large-scale empirical productivity models
• Habitat data not well-integrated
• PIT tagging for steelhead passage studies
• Highly accurate population age data
• Tissue archive from carcasses
• Sampling not representative
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Where do we go now?
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Changing Needs
• Augment trend sites
• Population-specific data– Genetic & demographic information
• System-wide compatibility
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Chinook Metapopulation Structure
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Future Directions
• Evaluate current tasks & data
• Analyze genetic archive
• Incorporate probabilistic design
• Explore processes & scales appropriate for management
• Develop collaborative relationships
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