tim harford: problem solving in a complex world
DESCRIPTION
Slideshow from NESTA's Conversation with Tim Harford, author of Adapt: Why Success Always Starts With Failure and The Undercover EconomistTRANSCRIPT
PROBLEM SOLVING IN A COMPLEX WORLD
BY TIM HARFORD
1
Thomas Thwaites, http://www.thetoasterproject.org
2
NUMBER OF DISTINCT PRODUCTS
In a hunter-gather society
Source: Starbucks; Eric Beinhocker, McKinsey Global Institute
300Served by StarbucksIn a typical Wal-MartIn New York
85,000100,000
10,000,000,000
3
“When a century has passed all thought of our
so-called speaking pictures will have been abandoned. It will never
be possible to synchronize the sound with the
picture.”
Oscar-winning director D.W. Griffith, 1924
“When a century has passed all thought of our
so-called speaking pictures will have been abandoned. It will never
be possible to synchronize the sound with the
picture.”
Oscar-winning director D.W. Griffith, 1924
“When a century has passed all thought of our
so-called speaking pictures will have been abandoned. It will never
be possible to synchronize the sound with the
picture.”
Oscar-winning director D.W. Griffith, 1924
“When a century has passed all thought of our
so-called speaking pictures will have been abandoned. It will never
be possible to synchronize the sound with the
picture.”
Oscar-winning director D.W. Griffith, 1924
“When a century has passed all thought of our
so-called speaking pictures will have been abandoned. It will never
be possible to synchronize the sound with the
picture.”
Oscar-winning director D.W. Griffith, 1924
0
20
40
60
80
100
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
US
('90
)/bb
l
EXPERT FORECASTSOIL EXPERT CONSENSUS FORECASTS
1981
1984
1987
19901993
4
WORLD’S LARGEST COMPANIES, 19121. US Steel
2. Jersey Standard
3. J&P Coats
4. Pullman
5. Royal Dutch Shell
1. Anaconda
2. General Electric
3. Singer
4. American Tobacco
5. Internat. Harvester
5
BIOLOGICAL EXTINCTIONSPERCENTAGE OF SPECIES BECOMING EXTINCT PER MILLION YEARS
5
15
10
20
550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0
Millions of years before present
Per
cen
t pe
r m
illio
n ye
ars
LARGE FIRM EXTINCTIONSWHEN THE WORLD’S LARGEST 100 COMPANIES IN 1912 DIED
1
2
3
4
5
0
1912 1945 1968 1995
Num
ber
of f
irm
s be
com
ing
exti
nct
SMALL FIRM EXTINCTIONSPERCENTAGE OF US FIRMS DYING EACH YEAR BY INDUSTRY & STATE
40
0
20
60
0 2000 30001000 4000
Observations by 9 industrial sectors, 9 years, 50 states
Per
cent
EXTINCTION SIGNATUREFREQ. OF EXTINCTIONS, BIOLOGICAL SPECIES
10
20
0
40
30
0-3 3-6 6-9 12-159-12 15-18 18-21 21-24Percentage of total species becoming extinct per million years
Freq
uenc
y
ECONOMIC EXTINCTION SIG.FREQUENCY OF EXTINCTION EVENTS, 1912 TITANS
30
20
40
50
0
10
0 1 2 3 4 5 6Number of firms becoming extinct
Freq
uenc
y
6
t
You can be watching TV and see Coca-Cola, and you know that the president drinks coke, Liz Taylor drinks coke, and just think, you can drink coke, too. A coke is a coke and no amount of money can get you a better coke than the one the bum on the corner is drinking. All the cokes are the same and all the cokes are good.
ANDY WARHOL
“
”
7
8
PROBLEM SOLVING IN A COMPLEX WORLD
BY TIM HARFORD
