tim stonor_how should norfolk grow?
TRANSCRIPT
Growing smarterAn approach to intelligent spatial
planning using the evidence
How should Norfolk grow?
Norwich, 20th November 2015
Tim Stonor
[email protected]@Tim_Stonor
Space Syntax
Presence
Copresence
Communication
Interaction
Transaction
Introduction
Innovation
Broadcast
Underpinning policy with evidence
Short-term➔ 50 yearsThe right science
for emergenciesCurrent issues:
Well-being, health, security & resilience
e.g. Ebola e.g. Cybersecurity e.g. Future of Cities
Medium-term Long-term
Knowledge translated to economic advantageAdvocacy and leadership for science
Government’s Chief Scientific Adviser
Disconnected LayoutSpatial Accessibility Score = 35
Connected layoutSpatial Accessibility Score = 75
Disconnected Layout Connected Layout Difference IRR 15% 18% 3%
NPV USD 1.1 billion USD 1.6 billion USD 0.5 billion
Real estate value analysis
Suppressed movement economy.
Enhanced movement economy.
Main street, mixing global & local movement.
Fast highways, separating global & local movement.
Urban challenge #1 Fast highways replacing main streets
Modelling the Spatial Layout Attraction
New Extension Area (NEA)CBD area
2,000
3,000
750
2,500
1,5001,000
500250
2,000
750
2,500
1,5001,000
500250
0
totototototototo
Unimproved Capital Value (UCV)$ per m²
above3,000 to
Existing land value
The Land value Model predicts a total land value for the CBD and the New Extension Area of more than 3.7 billion Australian dollars.
Forecasting land value
The Integrated Transport Network model examines the employment impacts of rail infrastructure improvement
“Peak Ring North” scenario “Peak Ring South” scenario
Note: model incorporates planned improvements under HS2/HS3
Model links rail and road
infrastructure to capture
integrated commuting time
