tim web presentation 3 q12-eng
TRANSCRIPT
Results PresentationTIM Participações S.A.
Q3 in Few
2
Total Net Revenues(R$ Billion)
EBITDA(R$ Billion)
4.7
3Q11 3Q12
4.4
1.161.20+3.8%
Solid data growth (Revenues +35% YoY)
Smart/webphonesales pick-up
Sales resilience in spite of sales ban
MOU at record level of 139
Live TIM up and running
Postpaid human at 24% YoY growth
A tough quarter, but TIM is managing to recover
MTR cut impact
Provisioning of advertisement credit loss (R$16 mln)
Provisioning for administrative procedures established between 2007/09 (R$26 mln)
Intelig fixed business performance
13.7
9M11 9M12
12.4
1.11.2
+8.0% +11.0%
3Q11 3Q12 9M11 9M12
19.1%7.0% 8.0%
+7.5%
3.34
3.58+7.3%
+8.6%
Quarter’s Highlight
12.6%6.0% 7.5%
1Q12 2Q12 3Q12
1Q12 2Q12 3Q12
Revenue Growth
Organic EBITDAGrowth
R$ 42mln1.24 3.63 R$ 42mln
Institutional Investor
“Best IR Team”
Frost Sullivan
Best Practices
Award
AbrascaPrize of Value
Creation
Reality Check: Recent Events Overshadowing Fundamentals
Sales Ban Drop Call Report Tax Issue ContingencesImpacts:
Reduction in gross adds during the period
Small economic impacts
Damage on image
Status:
Ban lifted on 3rd of August
Anatel is measuring the evolution of the plan.
Impacts:
Damage on image
Status:
Two independent consultants firms concluded that the rate of dropped calls on 3/8/12 showed no anomalies
Anatel’s final decision is expected by the end of the year.
Event:
2006 corporate restructuring (TIM Nordeste + TIM Maxitel) was questioned by Federal Tax Bureau in 2011
Impacts:
Damage on image
Status:
Under discussion at administrative level of tax bureau.
There are precedents
Event:
Allegation of low provisioning for contingencies
Impacts:
Damage on image
Status:
No impact on financial
Accrual based on internal and independent external opinion expert, following IFRS rules.
DataUsers
Total Traffic
Customer Base
Community Expansion
FMS(Voice)
Internet for everybody
440k
HP ready to sell
Tim Fiber Fixed BB
Back to fundamentalsCustomer
Base(users)
69.4 Mln
TotalTraffic
(minutes)
28.7 Bln
Sep11 Sep12
Data Users(unique)
20 Mln
Homes Passed(households)
+2X+34%+28.3%+17%
Sep11 Sep12 Sep11 Aug12 Sep11 Aug12
3
Regulatory Update
PGMC
• Access to fixed operators networks (SMP concept):Unbundling and Bitstream of copper networks.Access regulation to transmission networks at speeds up to 25 Mbps.
• Infrastructure sharing:Opportunity to share the passive infrastructure (duct,conduits and towers).
• M-M interconnection:Discussion over the adoption of Partial Bill & Keep formobile-mobile relations between SMP and non-SMP.
4G
• 2.5 GHz:Contract is signed, 10% paid in 4Q12, 90% to be paid in2Q13 (License value: R$ 382 mln).Suppliers are defined: Huawei, Nokia-Siemens andEricsson.
• Future of 700 MHz Auction :Ongoing discussion among Anatel, mobile carriers and broadcasters on digital dividend.
MTR
• Defined glide path in 2013:For 2013, it should be confirmed the glide path already determined (cut of ~9.5% in February).
• Cost model:Analysis is expected to be concluded by Anatel in 2013 and its implementation is being discussed among operators and the regulator.
QUALITY
• Improvement Plan:Focus on the improvement of customer care andnetwork.
• Anatel quarterly assessment: Based on follow-up monthly meetings
• Indication of the integrality of the new quality rules - new broadband indicators start to be informed of November/ 2012.
4
Operations
5+
W14 W16 W18 W20 W22 W24 W26 W28 W30 W32 W34 W36 W38 W40
Sales Growth Rebound
Sales Force(Points of sale EoP)
Gross adds come back
Prepaid resilient growth
Postpaid acceleration on
human lines (ex-M2M)
Strong sales channel force
Efficient growth approach
Sales Ban Effect
Trendline
Gross Adds - Customer Base(Weekly; ‘000 lines)
Back on track
~300k
115
MassChannel
Own Stores
+12.6% QoQ
+16.2% QoQ
Focus on Efficiency(R$; months)
55
36 34
2.3
1.8
3Q113Q10 3Q12
1.7
SAC/ARPU
SAC
-34% -7%
6
Operation Remains Solid
Customer Base(Million lines)
Total Market Share Growth(% of total lines)
9.7+2.7
+3.7 +4.9 +3.1 +1.7
68.910.0
PostPaid
2Q11
55.58.0
1Q11
52.87.7
3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12
59.2 64.1 67.2
8.79.3
Net Adds (000)
Post Paid
Pre Paid
223 632317 655 348
1,598 3,0532,359 4,219 2,786
348
1,308
Δ YoY3Q
+1.6
+8.6
+19%
+17%
Δ%
Oi
Claro
Vivo
3Q112Q111Q11 2Q124Q11
25.5%
1Q10
25.4%
2Q10
25.3% 25.4%
4Q103Q10
29.5% 29.5%
24.0%
25.6%
29.5%29.5% 29.8%
26.0%
19.5%
25.1%
29.7%
26.8%26.5%
19.4% 19.7% 19.1% 18.8% 18.8% 18.5%
30.1% 30.2% 30.1%
24.6%25.3%
20.1%
25.5%
24.9%
20.4%
29.6%
18.7%
24.6%
26.9%
1Q12
23.7%24.5%
25.1%57.6 58.9
47.545.1 50.6 54.8
Source: Company estimates
Source: Anatel
640bps
290bps
Largest Prepaid
Base
Postpaid Base Analysis (ex-M2M)(Million lines)
1st in yearly growth for 9 consecutive
quarters
59.1
10.3
3Q12
69.4
+0.5
261
274
29.7%
25.4%
24.5%
26.8%
18.7%
3Q12
Total postpaidbase
Human lines postpaid base
8.6 8.9 9.0
Δ% YoY3Q
8.78.9 9.1 9.3 9.4 9.5 9.7 9.8 9.9
10.0 10.2 10.310.4
Jun 12 Sep 12Sep 11 Dec 11 Mar 12
+19%
+24%
541k Net Adds in 3Q12
Handset Sales Market Share(% of handset revenues 1H12)
31%
37%
26%
7% Leading the handset market.
Even being the only player with “No
Subsidies” approach.
Driving data usage growth
-280k in 3Q12 (M2M disconnection effect)
TIMP1 P3 P4
57%
43%Open Market
Operators
7
Source: Anatel
Consumers Complains: Good position at Anatel and Procons
IDA – Index of Attendance (last reported by Anatel)(Points)
98.5596.95
99.1596.75
95.20
99.4098.10
100.0097.40 97.90 97.70
99.90 98.65
90.8591.35
94.0093,95
93.80
95.05 94.5097.00
95.3096.70
95.1098.00 94.0093.70
91.0592.65
90.30
86,3587.90
86.5589.85
86.65
91.00
88.80
92.80 88.10
87.2085.80
88.3086.40
83.90 84.8083.30
86.2085.00
89.35
74.8484.85
77.25
jul/11 aug/11 sep/11 oct/11 nov/11 dec/11 jan/12 feb/12 mar/12 apr/12 may/12 jun/12 jul/12
Volume of claims at Consumer’s Protection Agency (Procon)(# Quarterly claims)
6.032 6.286
7.112 7.591 8.229 7.693 8.811
7.376 7.416
6.673 6.229 7.166 6.533 7.422
9.664
11.788 13.696
16.013
19.245 18.560 21.179
8.740 8.601 9.592 9.344
10.687 10.508 12.348
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12
Procon Demands(% of total)
15%
18%
43%
24%
TIM
TIM
TIM
Source: SINDEC data base. Represents 45% of total Procons (17/10/12)
Source: Anatel
Source: SINDEC
TIMP1 P3 P4
8
Marketing
9+
Customer Sentiment
Preference and Rejection of customers(%)
TIM Quality Portal
TransparencyTransparency
QualityQuality
RelevantInnovationRelevant
Innovation
• Reinforcing position of transparency
• Offer w/ no Tricks• Clear communication
• Reinforcing position of transparency
• Offer w/ no Tricks• Clear communication
• Anatel plan on track• Network development• Caring effectiveness
• Anatel plan on track• Network development• Caring effectiveness
• Unlimited• Convenient• Innovative
• Unlimited• Convenient• Innovative
28 28 29 2823 22 21 22
2528
32 31 3027
11 11 11 1015 15 15 15
11 10 9 9 913
May06
Oct06
May07
Nov07
Jun08
Nov08
Jul09
Nov09
Jun10
Nov10
May11
Nov11
May12
Aug12
Preference
Rejection
∆ Pref x Rej
Player 1: 19
Player 3: 2
Player 4: -8
21 14
Anatel Plan Disclosure
Monitoring:Real coverage
footprint
New and planned
antennas
Wi-Fi hotspots
www.tim.com.br/qualidade
• Network Improvement
• Quality KPI’s
• Network Incidents and Alerts
10
Source: IpsosResearch
Mobile as the Universalization Driver
Data users customer base(Million lines)
CB growth Mobile x Fixed(Million lines)
Mobile services are the driver of growth and universalization for the sector
TIM MOU reaccelerating(Minutes)
130 131
126 127
139
3Q124Q113Q11 1Q12 2Q12
121
258
39 ~43
3Q122007
Mobile
Fixed2
51
1019
3Q122008
Mobile
Fixed~6X
Source: Anatel and Company`s estimates Source: Anatel and Company`s estimates
TIM’s total traffic growth of 28.3% YoY to 28.7 billion
Fixed ARPU of ~R$50 vs. Mobile ARPU of ~R$19
Mobile Data accesses reached 51 mln (+3.2x vs. 1Q11)
+7% ~25X
~2X
DataUsers
Total Traffic
Customer Base
Community Expansion
FMS(Voice)
Internet for everybody1
1
2
2
3
3
11
Sustainable Usage Growth
ARPU(R$)
2Q121Q124Q113Q11 3Q12
+3.5% QoQ
ARPU Recover in a
QoQ Comparison.
Strict Churn Policy.
Human Postpaid
Growth (ex-M2M).
Postpaid(Minutes, %)
3Q11 3Q12
Human Postpaid
Churn
MOU+15%
-1.74 p.p.
Prepaid(Minutes; Units)
3Q11 3Q12
Top UpVolume
MOU+3%
+12%
12
Internet Continuous Take-Up: Handset + Offer
Smart/Web phone Penetration(% over total base of lines)
31.1%
1Q121Q11 3Q11
26.6%
35.2%
15.4%
2Q124Q11
12.6%
19.5%
2Q11
SMS unique users growth(Daily unique users)
2Q121Q124Q113Q112Q111Q11
3Q12
~20
3Q11
~15
Data users(Million monthly unique users)
59% 69%
3G coverage(% of urban pop.)
VAS Gross Revenues(R$ Billion; % of Gross Mobile Services Revenues)
0.83
3Q11 3Q12
1.12
3Q12
3Q12
39.0%
19.4%15.7%
+ 370 bps
+3X
+34%
+35%
13
Products Net Reveneus(R$ Million)
+28%
% sales ofweb/smartphones
71% 72%
485
622
3Q11 3Q12
Financials
14+
Consistent EBITDA and Net Income Growth
369
EBIT Net Financial Result
Net Income 3Q12
Taxes andOthers
545
1,202
Depreciation/Amortization
318
EBITDA3Q12
-29
∆YoY +3.8% +1.9% +6.3% -52.9% +47% +0.4%
-657
-198
1,157
EBITDA3Q11
Adj. EBITDA3Q12
-155
Marketingand Sales
1,202
Pers./G&A and others
+73
Handset Margin
-89
Network and ITX
+45
Services Revenues
26.5%26.3%
EBITDA Margin
Service EBITDA Margin32.7%32.0%
+214
EBITDA Evolution(R$ Million)
From EBITDA to Net Income (R$ Million)
-7.2% +21.9%-39.6% +13.0%+5.5%∆YoY
1,244
Non-recurring
Adj. Net Income 3Q12
+16.6%
-42
25.5%
31.0%
+3.8%
Rep. EBITDA 3Q12
16 mln of provision on advertising credit26 mln of provision on Anatel administrative procedures established between 2007/09
+7.5%
15
16 + 26 = 42.1 mln – provisions9.1 mln – monetary adjustments for the administrative procedures
604 684827
Analysis on Efficiency & Cash Position
Net Debt(R$ Million – EBITDA trailing 12m)
OFCF(R$ Million)
3Q123Q113Q10
2,0791,458 1,550
3Q123Q113Q10Net DEBT/
EBITDA 0.5x 0.3x 0.3x
Capex(R$ Million)
ΔOFCF R$144mln YoYΔEBITDA-CAPEX= R$126mlnΔWC R$17mln
3Q123Q113Q10
Impr
ovin
g C
ash
Gen
erat
ion
Effic
ienc
y A
ppro
ach
Rem
ains
Leased Lines, Traffic and ITX Costs(Compound Growth Rate - Quarterly)
3Q11 3Q12
Handset Capitalized Subsidy(R$ Million)
64
0 0
3Q10 3Q11 3Q12
Bad Debt Trend(as % of Gross Revenues)
3Q12
1.14%
3Q11
0.95%
3Q10
1.34%
526
853772
77%91% 92%
% for Infrastructure
4Q11 1Q12 2Q12
ITX costs (ex-SMS)
Traffic
LeasedLines costs
6.4%
1.2%0.6%
OFCF/Net Rev.16.4% 15.6% 17.5%
16
+21%
TIM Fiber Update
17+
Market Demand(Units)
Quality of Service(Mbps)
Buildings authorized
7,101
Building’s connected MSANs installed
Network Construction
Homes Passed Ready to Sell
11
Optical network
MSANs
Backbone
Live TIM: Up & Running
22
33
Website Registration 120.5k
Market Demand and Quality of Service
Average Speed
1.8
35 37
0.4
20 21
MarketAverage
Live TIM(nominal)
Live TIM(delivered)
Download
Upload
Blogger Richardmax: “Live Tim, so far, is the only one to fulfill its promises, moreover above the promises, because the 35Mb hired tests are always above 37, and uploads are always spiking 20. “
2Q12 3Q12
5,700 3,026
2Q12 3Q12
2,100 405
2Q12 3Q12
214
440k
2Q12 3Q12
220k
Specialist Blogger @ http://richardmax.rmax.com.br/18
Network Roll Out(‘000 Households)
Live TIM: Speeding-Up with the New Offer
Sales(Average weekly sales)
New Offer: Shaking the Broadband Market
Business Model Proving Itself
Sep/12
BeforePromo
Oct/12
~5X
~590
>100
May/12 Dec/12
~6X
Addressable Market(Homes passed)
After Promo
Optical Network
MSANs~R$2k
Coverage Capexper Home Passed
~R$80
~R$800
Installation Capexper Sub
~R$300
TIM Fiber
Int. Bench.*
TIM Fiber
Int. Bench.*
~R$5k
Total Capexper Sub
~R$700
TIM Fiber
Int. Bench.*
*International Benchmarking19
Conclusions & Outlook
20+
Voice Capacity(‘000 TRXs)
157205
+30%
Data Capacity(‘000 channel elements)
139
328
2011 20123Q12
FTTS (Fiber to the Site)(‘000 Km Fiber)
29 38
2011 20123Q12
Conclusions & Outlook
95% Done in 3Q12
115% Done in 3Q12
96% Done in 3Q12
2011 2012
Customer Base Growth(Millions)
46.959.2 69.4
MOU (FMS on Play)(Minutes)
123130
139
Data Revenues Accelerating(R$ Billion; % Gross Mob. Serv. Rev.)
0.60.8
1.1
TIM Fiber Network Roll-Out(‘000 Households)
3Q10 3Q11 3Q12 3Q10 3Q11 3Q12 3Q10 3Q11 3Q12 May/12 Dec/12
Quality Improvement “Commitment with Anatel”
Business Fundamentals Remain Solid
Better regulatory environment
Tax easing policy
13%16%
19%
3Q12
Outlook
~590
>100
~6XAddressable Market(Homes passed)
2012 guidance commitment
Innovative approach unchanged
21
+136%+31%