Sebastien POSTIC, Sandrine SELOSSE and Nadia MAIZI

MINES ParisTech, PSL Research University, Centre for Applied Mathematics, Sophia Antipolis, France

Chair Modeling for sustainable development

TIMES-America Latina y el Caribe: a TIMES model dedicated to

South America and the Caribbean

November 17-19, 2014 66th Semi-annual IEA-ETSAP meeting UN City, Copenhagen, Denmark

66th Semi-annual IEA-ETSAP meeting, UN City, Copenhagen, 17-21 November, 2014 2/15

T I M E S - A L y C – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E a n d N a d i a M A I Z I

T-ALyC: Autonomous model but TIAM compatibility

• RES similarities

• Base year: 2010

• Disaggregation – Regional realism:

main regional issues

– World feedback with TIAM-FR: no more than 10-12 regions for computational burden

66th Semi-annual IEA-ETSAP meeting, UN City, Copenhagen, 17-21 November, 2014 3/15

T I M E S - A L y C – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E a n d N a d i a M A I Z I

Primary energy consumption (BP statistical Review 2012)

Brazil: the continent heavyweight

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

Bra

zil

Arg

en

tin

a

Co

lom

bia

Ve

nez

uel

a

Pe

ru

Ch

ile

Ecu

ado

r

Cu

ba

Do

min

ican

Rep

ub

lic

Gu

ate

mal

a

Pu

erto

Ric

o

Co

sta

Ric

a

Pan

ama

Bo

livia

Uru

guay

El S

alva

do

r

Par

agu

ay

Re

st o

f C

entr

al A

mer

ica

GDP of LAC countries (source CIA World Factbook)

66th Semi-annual IEA-ETSAP meeting, UN City, Copenhagen, 17-21 November, 2014 4/15

T I M E S - A L y C – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E a n d N a d i a M A I Z I

Brazil: A twofold country

The Sul and Sudeste Regions together represent: • 56% of Brazil population • 72% of GDP (2009) • 65% of electricity consumption • 90% of oil production • 90% of oil reserves, • 75% of gas reserves But: • 35% of hydro reserves • 30% of soybean production • 18% of territory

=> Two different energy systems with interconnection issues

66th Semi-annual IEA-ETSAP meeting, UN City, Copenhagen, 17-21 November, 2014 5/15

T I M E S - A L y C – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E a n d N a d i a M A I Z I

Bolivia–Paraguay-Uruguay: Interconnection states

Paraguay: electricity (2009) • 6,000 GWh consumed

• 45,000 GWh exported

(CIER, 2011)

(YPFB, 2012)

Bolivia: gas network • Regional hub for gas between Brazil and Argentina

66th Semi-annual IEA-ETSAP meeting, UN City, Copenhagen, 17-21 November, 2014 6/15

T I M E S - A L y C – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E a n d N a d i a M A I Z I

Other main regions

Electric interconnections in Central America

(Source CIER)

• Central America and the Caribbean: – A galaxy of micro-states, with a small economic weight

– Interconnecting with Mexico and Colombia

• Argentina, Venezuela, Colombia: – Three major actors whose interests are not aligned

• Chile, Peru, Equator: – Separated from the rest of the continent by the Andes

– Chili/Argentina, Chili/Peru => complicated relationships

66th Semi-annual IEA-ETSAP meeting, UN City, Copenhagen, 17-21 November, 2014 7/15

T I M E S - A L y C – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E a n d N a d i a M A I Z I

T-ALyC: regional disaggregation

66th Semi-annual IEA-ETSAP meeting, UN City, Copenhagen, 17-21 November, 2014 8/15

T I M E S - A L y C – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E a n d N a d i a M A I Z I

Including (right) or not (left) biomass and solar resources

Energy resources potentials

66th Semi-annual IEA-ETSAP meeting, UN City, Copenhagen, 17-21 November, 2014 9/15

T I M E S - A L y C – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E a n d N a d i a M A I Z I

Interconnections

AND/BPU -> 2,5 TWh/an BPU/BSE -> 128 TWh/an

66th Semi-annual IEA-ETSAP meeting, UN City, Copenhagen, 17-21 November, 2014 10/15

T I M E S - A L y C – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E a n d N a d i a M A I Z I

Electricity production

66th Semi-annual IEA-ETSAP meeting, UN City, Copenhagen, 17-21 November, 2014 11/15

T I M E S - A L y C – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E a n d N a d i a M A I Z I

Electricity production

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

20

10

20

12

20

15

20

25

20

35

20

45

20

10

20

12

20

15

20

25

20

35

20

45

20

10

20

12

20

15

20

25

20

35

20

45

20

10

20

12

20

15

20

25

20

35

20

45

20

10

20

12

20

15

20

25

20

35

20

45

20

10

20

12

20

15

20

25

20

35

20

45

ARG BSE BWC CHL COL VEN

Electricity production by source (PJ)

WIND

OIL

NUCLEAR

IMPORTS

HYDRO

GAS

COAL

BIO

66th Semi-annual IEA-ETSAP meeting, UN City, Copenhagen, 17-21 November, 2014 12/15

T I M E S - A L y C – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E a n d N a d i a M A I Z I

Regional trade of electricity

All periods AND-BPU trade in 2020, at its strongest: 70PJ/year

66th Semi-annual IEA-ETSAP meeting, UN City, Copenhagen, 17-21 November, 2014 13/15

T I M E S - A L y C – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E a n d N a d i a M A I Z I

Ongoing developments

• Interconnections versus hydro uncertainties

• Climate targets versus growth uncertainties

• Linking with TIAM-FR

66th Semi-annual IEA-ETSAP meeting, UN City, Copenhagen, 17-21 November, 2014 14/15

T I M E S - A L y C – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E a n d N a d i a M A I Z I

Thank you for your attention!

Don’t hesitate to contact Sebastien POSTIC for further information: sebastien.postic@mines-paristech.fr

66th Semi-annual IEA-ETSAP meeting, UN City, Copenhagen, 17-21 November, 2014 15/15

T I M E S - A L y C – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E a n d N a d i a M A I Z I

CSA end-use sectors in TIAM

Final energy demand by sector

TIAM-FR, 2012

Agriculture Sector

4% Commercial

Sector 10%

Transport Sector 27%

Residential Sector 17%

Industry Sector 41%

Other Non-specified

1%

(This demand does not take into account the last end-use process (e.g. car) that converts final energy into energy service)

66th Semi-annual IEA-ETSAP meeting, UN City, Copenhagen, 17-21 November, 2014 16/15

T I M E S - A L y C – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E a n d N a d i a M A I Z I

Energy resources potentials

66th Semi-annual IEA-ETSAP meeting, UN City, Copenhagen, 17-21 November, 2014 17/15

T I M E S - A L y C – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E a n d N a d i a M A I Z I

Primary energy production

2010 2050

66th Semi-annual IEA-ETSAP meeting, UN City, Copenhagen, 17-21 November, 2014 18/15

T I M E S - A L y C – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E a n d N a d i a M A I Z I

Electricity generation

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

2010 2012 2015 2025 2035 2045

Electricity output in T-ALyC (PJ)

WIND

SOLAR

OIL

NUCLEAR

MEXICO

HYDRO

GAS

COAL

BIO

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2005 2007 2012 2020 2030 2040 2050

Electricity output in TIAM- CSA (PJ)

WIND

SOLAR

OIL

NUCLEAR

GEO

HYDRO

GAS

COAL

BIO