title page charlton research company pulse of the nation february 4, 2005 western association of...

TITLE PAGE

Charlton Research CompanyCharlton Research Company

Pulse of the NationPulse of the Nation

February 4, 2005

Western Association of Western Association of Chamber ExecutivesChamber Executives

® CHARLTON RESEARCH COMPANY

Today’s Presentation


National Mood & Issues

Approval & Favorability

The Critical Issues

Referendum on The President, 2004

Political Strategies

Future Challenges


NA Mood & IssuesNA Mood & Issues



Mood of Nation

Generally speaking would you say things in the country are going in the right direction or have theyseriously gotten off on the wrong track?

53 514952

4246

72

61

64

52

65

53

54 53

43

49

4439

5143

4239

51

4138

36

33

41

36

4147 48

4339

2829

4037

29

5349

11

29 30

27

35

26

40

39

26

54

42

4751

46

45

4848

43

5154 55565954

44

52 56

1/11

/20

01

2/2

2/2

00

13

/5/2

00

13

/28

/20

01

4/1

9/2

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15

/30

/20

01

6/1

8/2

00

17

/10

/20

01

8/1

9/2

00

19

/6/2

00

19

/16

/20

01

10

/28

/20

01

11/1

4/2

00

11

2/1

0/2

00

11

/24

/20

02

2/3

/20

02

3/11

/20

02

4/2

1/2

00

25

/19

/20

02

6/2

3/2

00

27

/10

/20

02

8/1

8/2

00

29

/6/2

00

29

/22

/20

02

10

/8/2

00

211

/4/2

00

21

2/1

5/2

00

21

/23

/20

03

2/2

0/2

00

33

/20

/20

03

4/3

0/2

00

35

/22

/20

03

6/2

3/2

00

37

/20

/20

03

8/2

1/2

00

39

/24

/20

03

10

/29

/20

03

11/1

2/2

00

31

2/2

2/2

00

31

/15

/20

04

2/1

5/2

00

43

/14

/20

04

4/2

7/2

00

45

/20

04

6/1

7/2

00

47

/15

/20

04

8/5

/20

04

9/2

2/2

00

41

0/3

0/2

00

411

/24

/20

05

12

/8/2

00

41

/18

/20

05

0

20

40

60

80 Right Direction Wrong Track

Various National Sources*CBS/New York Times; 1/14-18/05; 1,118n adults

*

National

%


Mood of the Nation (1990’s)

3126

35

27

41

26 28

38 40

48 47

57 5549

32

42

55

51

60 596166

56

64 66

6365

52

54 53

35 34

42

40 38

60

47

28

35

28

31

1/9

3

4 10

11 2/9

4

6 11 1/9

5

5 11 1/9

6

5 11 2/9

7

8 12

1/9

8

5 8 12

1/9

9

4 8 11 1/0

0

4 8 11

0

20

40

60

80

100 Right Direction Wrong Track

Generally speaking would you say things in the country are going in the right direction or have they seriouslygotten off on the wrong track?

Sources: Various CRC and other National Studies

%


Single Most Important Issue Today

What would you say is the single most important issue facing the United States today, that is, the onethat you, yourself, are most concerned about?


National

59

52

585352

46

59

19

48

5860

4250

42

32

39

22

23

3335

21

3231

21

34

24

3230

27

38

27

21

30

35

28

40

27

1721

2427

711 12

25

3631

4540 43

3631

374035

25 27

3130

25

3 56

96 7

6

9

54

6357

35

2424

34

23

3936

29

42

16

2231

3436

30

2227

3534363837

4548

73 6

26

7 4 3 4 24

27

17

41

5 6 6 48

51

6 4 5 52

5 6 47 5 5 5

8

01

/20

01

2/2

3/2

00

13

/30

/20

01

4/8

/20

01

5/2

0/2

00

16

/7/2

00

17

/10

/20

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8/1

9/2

00

19

/20

/20

01

10

/14

/20

01

11/11

/20

01

12

/9/2

00

11

/9/2

00

22

/19

/20

02

4/1

5/2

00

25

/9/2

00

26

/17

/20

02

7/11

/20

02

8/7

/20

02

10

/8/2

00

211

/3/2

00

21

2/1

6/2

00

21

/9/2

00

32

/6/2

00

33

/5/2

00

34

/7/2

00

35

/7/2

00

36

/15

/20

03

7/9

/20

03

8/1

7/2

00

39

/15

/20

03

10

/19

/20

03

11/5

/20

03

12

/16

/20

03

1/11

/20

04

2/1

5/2

00

43

/11/2

00

44

/15

/20

04

5/4

/20

04

5/2

00

46

/6/2

00

47

/18

/20

04

8/11

/20

04

9/1

5/2

00

41

0/1

4/2

00

41

2/8

/20

04

1/1

8/2

00

5

0

20

40

60

80Social Economic Foreign Policy Governance

*

%


Single Most Important Issue Today (1990's-2000)

What would you say is the single most important issue facing the United States today, that is, the onethat you, yourself, are most concerned about?

21

32

29

47

63

55

60

40

56

51

64

44

64

48

43

61

5255

6056

66

46

26

17

26

18

31

22

1215

79 12

25

16

38

59

6 74

9

15

3 171

9/9

21

011 1

21

/93

3 6 9 10 2/9

43 5 6 8 9 11 1/9

53 6 9 11 1

21

/96

3 5 8 9 12

2/9

76 8 11 1

/98

4 6 9 1/9

93 4 5 8 111

/00

2 6 80

20

40

60

80

100 Social Economic Foreign Policy Governance

Source: Various National Surveys


Approval and FavorabilityApproval and Favorability



Job Approval: George W. Bush

Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?

46

5762

5753

5855

72

8984 82 79

76

67

7066

6157

53

6862

5954

51

60

50

464149

41

4853

49

1425

1824

33 3439

42

15

7 912 1317

1421

28252932

3739

24

3439

43

4233

45

42

4847

5249 49

44 46

1/2

5/2

00

12

/11/2

00

13

/5/2

00

13

/29

/20

01

4/2

6/2

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15

/20

/20

01

6/1

8/2

00

16

/30

/20

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8/1

9/2

00

19

/6/2

00

19

/12

/20

01

9/2

3/2

00

11

0/2

1/2

00

111

/19

/20

01

12

/19

/20

01

1/2

1/2

00

22

/27

/20

02

3/2

4/2

00

24

/25

/20

02

5/3

0/2

00

26

/30

/20

02

7/2

8/2

00

28

/7/2

00

29

/23

/20

02

10

/27

/20

02

11/4

/20

02

12

/22

/20

02

1/1

6/2

00

32

/24

/20

03

3/3

/20

03

4/9

/20

03

4/2

7/2

00

35

/15

/20

03

6/1

0/2

00

37

/10

/20

03

8/1

3/2

00

39

/4/2

00

39

/21

/20

03

10

/10

/20

03

11/1

2/2

00

31

2/2

2/2

00

31

/15

/20

04

2/1

5/2

00

43

/7/2

00

44

/27

/20

04

5/2

3/2

00

46

/6/2

00

47

/15

/20

04

8/1

8/2

00

49

/22

/20

04

10

/30

/20

04

11/1

0/2

00

41

2/8

/20

04

1/1

8/2

00

5

0

20

40

60

80

100 Approve Disapprove


*

National

%


George W. Bush Job Approval

Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his jobs as president?

Source: United States General Exit Poll; 11/3/04; 13,531n adults

Disapprove

Approve

0 20 40 60 80 100

99 90 1

9393 51

Kerry voters Bush voters Nader voters

%

Approve52%

Disapprove46%

TotalMentioned


George Bush Favorability

6364

61

63

58

79

8983

78

81

75

77

69

72

70

7368

64

62

72

6665

57

585456

60

41

44

56

47

50

41

50 524850

44

32 34 36

13

9

121516

13

191722

2825

27

29

25

34

42

40

45

35 383642

36

4944

33

42

39

43

40

3/11

/20

01

4/2

2/2

00

1

5/3

1/2

00

1

6/1

2/2

00

1

7/3

0/2

00

1

8/3

0/2

00

1

9/2

0/2

00

1

11/8

/20

01

11/1

5/2

00

1

1/1

4/2

00

2

2/3

/20

02

2/1

3/2

00

2

4/1

7/2

00

2

5/1

5/2

00

2

6/5

/20

02

8/7

/20

02

9/2

6/2

00

2

10

/29

/20

02

12

/18

/20

02

1/1

5/2

00

3

3/1

5/2

00

3

4/1

6/2

00

3

6/1

0/2

00

3

6/2

9/2

00

3

7/1

7/2

00

3

8/1

9/2

00

3

9/5

/20

03

10

/29

/20

03

11/1

9/2

00

3

12

/17

/20

03

1/1

5/2

00

4

2/1

5/2

00

4

3/7

/20

04

4/1

8/2

00

4

5/2

3/2

00

4

6/8

/20

04

7/1

5/2

00

4

8/2

5/2

00

4

9/2

2/2

00

4

10

/30

/20

04

11/2

1/2

00

4

12

/15

/20

04

1/1

8/2

00

5

0

20

40

60

80

100 Favorable Unfavorable


*

National

%


Job Approval: Congress

50

48

5055

58

45 4943

45

84

67

73

57

5962

58

62

50

57

49

5448 50 49 50

40

45

38

41 4440

31

3238

34

3741

48

10

2419

3134

29

35

28

39

34

38

31

3640 39

44 4145

53

42

52 50

39

1/1

4/2

00

12

/12

/20

01

3/1

2/2

00

14

/8/2

00

14

/29

/20

01

5/1

2/2

00

16

/3/2

00

16

/25

/20

01

7/2

2/2

00

18

/5/2

00

18

/31

/20

01

9/9

/20

01

10

/14

/20

01

10

/28

/20

01

11/11

/20

01

12

/9/2

00

11

2/1

0/2

00

11

2/1

9/2

00

11

/6/2

00

21

/27

/20

02

2/6

/20

02

2/2

1/2

00

22

/26

/20

02

4/11

/20

02

6/6

/20

02

6/2

3/2

00

27

/11/2

00

29

/23

/20

02

10

/31

/20

02

11/1

4/2

00

21

2/8

/20

02

1/2

1/2

00

32

/10

/20

03

3/5

/20

03

5/7

/20

03

6/1

5/2

00

37

/9/2

00

39

/10

/20

03

10

/29

/20

03

1/1

5/2

00

44

/22

/20

04

6/6

/20

04

11/1

0/2

00

41

2/8

/20

04

1/1

8/2

00

5

0

20

40

60

80

100 Approve Disapprove


National

*

%


The Critical IssuesThe Critical Issues• Moral ValuesMoral Values• The EconomyThe Economy• The WarThe War



Moral Values


Political Terms Abortion Marriage between man and woman Pledge of Allegiance Gay marriage and civil unions Nationalism – flag symbol

Cultural Born Again – Evangelical Church attendance New Age Non-Christian sects

Values War Family Truth, Honesty, Integrity

Political Terms Abortion Marriage between man and woman Pledge of Allegiance Gay marriage and civil unions Nationalism – flag symbol

Cultural Born Again – Evangelical Church attendance New Age Non-Christian sects

Values War Family Truth, Honesty, Integrity


Meaning of “Moral Values”


What does the phrase "moral values" mean to you?

Source: CBS/New York Times; 11/18-21/04; 795n registered voters

Don’t know

Other

Honesty

Act in a Moral/Christian way

Belief in God

Traditional Family values

Set of Rules/10 Commandments

Beliefs (General)

Be a Good Person

Ethics in General

0 10 20

18

10

3

4

4

6

6

14

15

20


Morally Acceptable/Wrong

Regardless of whether or not you think each of these issues should be legal, do you personally believethat in general it is morally acceptable or morally wrong?

PolygamyExtra-marital affairs

Cloning humansSuicide

Cloning animalsAbortion

Homosexual behaviorChild out of wedlock

Doctor assisted suicideStem cell research

Pre-marital sexMedical testing on animals

Animal furDeath penalty

GamblingDivorce

0 20 40 60 80 100

6666 26 86666 30 46565 28 76363 31 66262 32 66060 36 4

5454 37 95353 41 6

4949 45 64242 54 44040 50 10

3232 64 41515 79 6

99 88 377 91 277 91 2

Morally acceptable Morally wrong No opinion

Source: Gallup; 5/2-4/04; 1,000n adults nationwide%


The ‘Values’ War

By stating political communications in value terms, you create greater conflict between the partisans, less tolerance for someone else’s ideas, not looking for collaboration or consequences and a belief that the answers that are serving politics are the correct/right answers.

The public interprets this as not seeing collaborative solutions or positive consequences, but that the policy maker has the only right, correct or acceptable answer. Anyone in disagreement is discounted.

By stating political communications in value terms, you create greater conflict between the partisans, less tolerance for someone else’s ideas, not looking for collaboration or consequences and a belief that the answers that are serving politics are the correct/right answers.

The public interprets this as not seeing collaborative solutions or positive consequences, but that the policy maker has the only right, correct or acceptable answer. Anyone in disagreement is discounted.


What Does The Economy Mean Going Into 2004?

The economy is a foreign policy issue––re-position the economy.

Globalization had happened

Change in rich versus poor paradigm. In the Global village, America is the rich one. Change in domestic politics.

Publics Perception. Meaning of money. Entrepreneurial generation.

The economy is a foreign policy issue––re-position the economy.

Globalization had happened

Change in rich versus poor paradigm. In the Global village, America is the rich one. Change in domestic politics.

Publics Perception. Meaning of money. Entrepreneurial generation.


“Globalization” Awareness

There has been a lot of talk in America and around the world about the term “globalization.” Are youaware of or have you heard about globalization? (Q.1)

Yes70%

No28%

Source: Charlton Research Company, 800n national adult, September 2004


Globalization Meaning

Globalization has come to mean a lot of different things to a lot of different people. What words orphrases would you use to describe what comes to mind when you hear the term globalization? (Q.2)Base: Those who are aware of globalization; n=562.

Economy/ Trade

Unification/We are connected

United Nations taking over/Loss of sovereigntyExportation of jobs/Exploitation of cheap labor

Cooperation with/Helping other nations

Worldwide

Corporations

Environment/Global warming/Weather

Awareness of other countries and cultures

World peace/WarsNothingOtherDon’t know/Refused

FirstMentions

%

20

15

108

5

5

4

4

3

327

14

TotalMentions

%

26

19

1312

16

6

6

6

8

62914



Concern About Terrorist Attack on U.S. Soil


How concerned are you about another 9/11-style attack by terrorists taking place on U.S. soil in the next12 months?

Source: Opinion Research Corporation; 12/2-6/04; 1,608n adults

Concerned76%

Not concerned76%


Priority for U.S. Foreign and Military Policy


The role of the U.S. in the world is now under much debate here at home and also abroad. Please tellwhich of the following is the highest priority for U.S. foreign and military policy.

Defense of U.S. borders and homeland securityIntelligence gathering and working to achieve internationalagreements that encourage the sharing of intelligence information

International aid and diplomacy, including lining up broadinternational support for military actions

Building democracies in other nations

The U.S. going at it alone, footing all or most of the cost in terms ofdollars and military casualties

Don't know/None of these

%

43

19

17

7

6

8



Perception of Our Country


Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: It matters a great deal whether people fromaround the world respect and admire our country. We need the rest of the world to fight on our side tofight an effective war against terrorism.


Agree80%

Disagree15%


America's Views and Values to the World

There are a number of ways in which American society is communicated to the world. Which of thefollowing do you think best presents America’s views and values to the world? (Q.3)

Don't Know/Refused

Our companies and theproducts we make and sell

Our movies, TV and music

Our beliefs about therights of men and women

Our democratic formof government

0 20 40 60

7

12

16

24

41



Referendum on the PresidentReferendum on the President



How Is It Possible That George Bush is President?

An economy that was sputtering with a job program that did not realize the kind of growth planned

A diversion from the War on Terror and Iraq which had become unpopular

A campaign strategy that in the final month of the campaign lost three straight debates

In the last week 380 tons of explosives, FBI investigates Halliburton, Osama bin Laden addresses the American public


Agree/Disagree: Makes No Difference Who is Elected President

In your opinion, do you agree or disagree that it makes no difference who is elected President of theUnited States?

31

1924

3832 29

17

61

7974

6066 68

82

11/1976 11/1984 11/1988 4/1992 10/1996 10/2000 6/20040

20

40

60

80

100 Agree Disagree%

Source: CBS News/New York Times Poll; 6/23-27/04; 1,053n adults


Important Differences Between Democrats and Republicans

Do you think there are any important differences in what the Democratic and Republican parties standfor?

4943

5058

53 52

66 63 64 61

74 70

4341 42

3641 40

29 31 28

35

22 20

11/1960 8/1980 4/1981 11/1988 10/1990 5/1992 1/1995 3/1995 9/1998 11/1998 4/2004 7/20040

20

40

60

80

100 Yes No

Various National Sources*CBS News/New York Times Poll; 7/11-15/04; 955n adults

*

%


Bush Vs. Kerry Match

49

55 53

50

6055

49 5148

51 5249

45

46

4446 4446

49

45

5252

46

50

31

40

3134

42

27

37

3034

4142 42

44

4135

42 47

5148

45 43

46 49 484848

5250

4544

47

46

10

/14

/20

02

12

/18

/20

02

1/6

/20

03

1/2

6/2

00

32

/3/2

00

34

/30

/20

03

5/7

/20

03

5/1

9/2

00

36

/9/2

00

37

/10

/20

03

7/2

7/2

00

38

/19

/20

03

7/2

2/2

00

39

/26

/20

03

10

/10

/20

03

10

/29

/20

03

11/7

/20

03

11/1

9/2

00

31

2/8

/20

03

12

/21

/20

03

1/4

/20

04

1/1

2/2

00

41

/22

/20

04

2/3

/20

04

2/1

5/2

00

42

/20

/20

04

3/3

/20

04

3/1

4/2

00

44

/4/2

00

44

/27

/20

04

5/4

/20

04

5/2

3/2

00

46

/6/2

00

46

/13

/20

04

7/7

/20

04

7/2

5/2

00

48

/5/2

00

48

/24

/20

04

9/5

/20

04

9/2

6/2

00

41

0/4

/20

04

10

/28

/20

04

11/1

/20

04

0

20

40

60

80 Bush Kerry

Various National Sources*Source: GWU Battleground; 10/31-11/1/04; 1,000n likely voters

If the election for president were being held between George W. Bush, the Republican, and John Kerry,the Democrat, for whom would you vote?

%

*


Bush vs. Kerry Election Months Ballots

454645444544

49

444745434545

48

4347444544

464948

5354524747

5550

47495249

46

48524748 4950

46

495049485151

494648

52505246

5250

47

5049 4750

4546

49

4743434545454240

44 41

4446

494750

46 4443

474845

47

46

7/3

/20

04

7/7

/20

04

7/9

/20

04

7/11

/20

04

7/2

1/2

00

47

/22

/20

04

7/2

5/2

00

47

/30

/20

04

7/3

1/2

00

48

/1/2

00

48

/4/2

00

48

/5/2

00

48

/8/2

00

48

/11/2

00

48

/14

/20

04

8/1

7/2

00

48

/18

/20

04

8/2

4/2

00

48

/25

/20

04

8/2

6/2

00

48

/29

/20

04

9/1

/22

00

9/2

/20

04

9/3

/20

04

9/5

/20

04

9/8

/20

04

9/9

/20

04

9/1

5/2

00

49

/16

/20

04

9/1

9/2

00

49

/22

/20

04

9/2

6/2

00

49

/28

/20

04

10

/3/2

00

41

0/4

/20

04

10

/10

/20

04

10

/11/2

00

41

0/1

6/2

00

41

0/1

7/2

00

41

0/1

8/2

00

41

0/2

2/2

00

41

0/2

4/2

00

41

0/2

8/2

00

41

0/2

9/2

00

41

0/3

0/2

00

41

0/3

1/2

00

411

/1/2

00

4

0

20

40

60

80 Bush Kerry

All polls from CBS, ABC, NBC, Washington Post, LA Times, NY Times and Gallup*Source: GWU Battleground; 10/31-11/1/04; 1,000n likely voters

If the election for president were being held between George W. Bush, the Republican, and John Kerry,the Democrat, for whom would you vote?

%

*

Jul. 6; Edwards announcedas Kerry's running mate

Jul. 26-29; DemocraticNational Convention

Aug. 30 - Sept. 2;Republican National Convention


Most Important Challenge Facing Mankind - Michael Crichton

The greatest challenge facing mankind is the challenge of distinguishing ________ from _________.

Reality

Propaganda

Fantasy

Truth

Perceiving the ‘Truth’ has always been a challenge to mankind.

(from)


Political StrategiesPolitical Strategies



The AdministrationThe Administration• Social SecuritySocial Security• Tax ReformTax Reform• Tort ReformTort Reform

The OppositionThe Opposition• Re-Construct The PartyRe-Construct The Party• Resist BushResist Bush• Find HopeFind Hope


Social Security Program


Source: CBS/New York Times; 1/14-18/05;1,118n adults

Do you think the Social Security program is ________?

Has money available toprovide the benefits expected

for your retirement

Really is in a crisis

0 20 40 60 80 100

5050 40 10

3434 54 12

Yes No Don't know

Do you think allowing individuals to invest a portion of their Social Security taxes on their own is agood idea or a bad idea?

Good idea45%

Bad idea50%

%


Favor/Oppose: Social Security Issues


Please tell me what you think about the following issues. Would you say that you favor or oppose _____?

Source: Annenberg; 1/11-16; 1,292n adults

Giving retirees lower benefits

Raising Social Security taxes

Still favor investing in governmenthad to borrow two trilliondollars to cover benefits

Allowing funds tobe invested

Imposing taxes on incomeabove $90K

0 20 40 60 80 100

6868 23 9

4747 48 5

3939 53 8

3030 62 8

1111 86 3

Favor Oppose Don't know

%


Ideas We Judge By, Ideas We Act On

JusticeJustice

LibertyLiberty

EqualityEquality

TruthTruth

GoodnessGoodness

BeautyBeauty

Ideas We Judge By Ideas We Act On


Future ChallengesFuture Challenges



Most Important Change:Next 5-10 Years

Current Historical Content

28%

Advances in Technology

26%

Cultural Differences

18%

Political Leadership

17%

Changes in Global Populations

8%

Major changes affecting the world in the next five to ten years.


Political/Media Institution Challenges

Do you think our political and media institutions are up to meeting the challenges created by the changeswe have discussed? (Q.8)

Yes39%

No54%

Don't know8%


Reasons Institutions Can Meet Challenges

Why do you feel that our political and media institutions are up to meeting the challenges created by thechanges we have discussed? (Q.9) Base: Those who think institutions can meet challengesdiscussed; n=312.

The media can handle the task/They bring news/Communicate/Investigate (general)We have strong political leaders/Government has the power to change bad situationsBecause people/Institutions are good and are trying their best

Our media/governmental systems are good/flexible

Things could be better/Need to be better (general)

Technology can help

None/Nothing

Other

Don't know/Refused

FirstMentions

%

27

20

11

10

10

5

*

8

9

TotalMentions

%

28

23

12

11

10

5

*

8

9


Reasons Institutions Can't Meet Challenges

Why do you feel that our political and media institutions are not up to meeting the challenges created bythe changes we have discussed? (Q.10) Base: Those who think institutions can meet challengesdiscussed; n=432.

Media is biased/Profit-driven/Lacks quality (general)

Government is corrupt/Caters to the rich/Not focused on improving society

Things are going downhill/Negative comment (general)

The changes are too big/Too new for them to tackle

We need a return to religion

None/Nothing

Other

Don't know/Refused

FirstMentions

%

35

35

10

9

1

*

7

3

TotalMentions

%

40

39

11

9

1

1

7

4


What Does it Mean?

AMERICA’S PLACE IN THE WORLD

MEDIAPOLITICS

TECHNOLOGYGLOBAL

DEMOGRAPHICS

CURRENTHISTORICAL

CYCLE

CULTURE&

BELIEF

ROLEOF

GOVERNMENT

TITLE PAGE


Pulse of the NationPulse of the Nation

February 4, 2005

Western Association of Western Association of Chamber ExecutivesChamber Executives

title page charlton research company pulse of the nation february 4, 2005 western association of...

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