title slide pipeline qra seminar. pipeline risk assessment introduction to risk identification 2
TRANSCRIPT
PIPELINE QRA SEMINAR
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PIPELINE RISK ASSESSMENTINTRODUCTION TO RISK IDENTIFICATION
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“identify sources of risk, areas of impacts, events (including
changes in circumstances) and their causes and their
potential consequences”
INTRODUCTION TO RISK IDENTIFICATION
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• Qualitative exercise
• Starting-point of the risk assessment
• Thorough (i.e. what is missed is being left out)
• Risk of doing something – risk of not doing something
• Operational risk (frequent) – emergency risk (rare)
INTRODUCTION TO RISK IDENTIFICATION
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• Different methods and philosophy for risk identification
• Brainstorming versus checklist
(i.e. creativity versus accuracy)
• Both philosophies incorporate experience within the
system (personal experience versus community
experience)
METHODS FOR RISK IDENTIFICATION
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Advantages of checklist
• Simple (understanding and execution)
• Cover the most and/or major (consistent and practical)
Disadvantages of checklist
• Unspecific (not capturing project specific)
METHODS FOR RISK IDENTIFICATION
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Advantages of brainstorming
• Specific (capturing project specific – outside the box)
• Lessons learned (from previous projects)
Disadvantages of brainstorming
• Subjective (based on input from participants)
• Approach (discussion on other concerns than risk)
METHODS FOR RISK IDENTIFICATION
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What-if
HAZID (Hazard Identification)
HAZOP (Hazard and Operability Study)
FMEA (Failure Modes and Effect Analysis)
Operator analysis
FTA (Fault Tree Analysis)
SWOT (Strengths, Weakness, Opportunities and
Threats Analysis)
• Different methods and philosophy for risk identification
• “Same, same. But different!”
• Similarities in methodology and philosophy
• Differences in way of presenting
METHODS FOR RISK IDENTIFICATION
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• Based on the question: what if…?
• Primarily - brainstorming
• Capturing deviation from the normal
• Often used when analysing changes made
• Focus on consequence (and avoiding the consequence)
rather than focus on the actual cause
METHOD: WHAT-IF…?
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METHOD: WHAT-IF…?
What if…
Consequence Safeguards
Recommendations
...the brakes on the car stop working?
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METHOD: WHAT-IF…?
What if…
Consequence Safeguards
Recommendations
...the brakes on the car stop working?
We will not be able to break at the next intersection and will crash into the car in front of us
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METHOD: WHAT-IF…?
What if…
Consequence Safeguards
Recommendations
...the brakes on the car stop working?
We will not be able to break at the next intersection and will crash into the car in front of us
Make use of the parking brake Yearly maintenance of the brakes
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METHOD: WHAT-IF…?
What if…
Consequence Safeguards
Recommendations
...the brakes on the car stop working?
We will not be able to break at the next intersection and will crash into the car in front of us
Make use of the parking brake Yearly maintenance of the brakes
Always check that the brakes are working when starting the car
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METHOD: WHAT-IF…?
What if…
Consequence Safeguards
Recommendations
…there is a flooding where the pipeline is routed as a consequence of heavy rains?
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METHOD: WHAT-IF…?
What if…
Consequence Safeguards
Recommendations
…there is a flooding where the pipeline is routed as a consequence of heavy rains?
The foundations to the pipeline are destabilized and the pipeline is torn open with a release of gas
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METHOD: WHAT-IF…?
What if…
Consequence Safeguards
Recommendations
…there is a flooding where the pipeline is routed as a consequence of heavy rains?
The foundations to the pipeline are destabilized and the pipeline is torn open with a release of gas
Dikes around the pipeline routing
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METHOD: WHAT-IF…?
What if…
Consequence Safeguards
Recommendations
…there is a flooding where the pipeline is routed as a consequence of heavy rains?
The foundations to the pipeline are destabilized and the pipeline is torn open with a release of gas
Dikes around the pipeline routing
Consider the topography and environmental conditions when deciding the pipeline routing
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Description
“HAZID is a structured, team based approach to identify
hazards, their potential consequences, and requirements
for risk reduction”
• Systematic (e.g. use of guidewords)
• All-round – from early stage of project to later stage of
project
• Separate presentation on HAZID
METHOD: HAZID
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Description
“HAZOP is a structured and systematic examination of a
planned or existing process or operation in order to identify
and evaluate problems that may represent risks”
• Process oriented (e.g. pressure, temperature and flow)
• More detailed - often following the HAZID
• Often used for process plants and nuclear plants
• Primarily - loss of production (operational risk)
METHOD: HAZOP
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METHOD: HAZOP
Deviation
Cause Consequence
Safeguard
Recommendations
High flow from water tap
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METHOD: HAZOP
Deviation
Cause Consequence
Safeguard
Recommendations
High flow from water tap
Human error (operating the water tap) Upgraded water flow in building
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METHOD: HAZOP
Deviation
Cause Consequence
Safeguard
Recommendations
High flow from water tap
Human error (operating the water tap) Upgraded water flow in building
Release of water (possible discomfort from being wet)
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METHOD: HAZOP
Deviation
Cause Consequence
Safeguard
Recommendations
High flow from water tap
Human error (operating the water tap) Upgraded water flow in building
Release of water (possible discomfort from being wet)
PPE (personal protection equipment) – rain coat
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METHOD: HAZOP
Deviation
Cause Consequence
Safeguard
Recommendations
High flow from water tap
Human error (operating the water tap) Upgraded water flow in building
Release of water (possible discomfort from being wet)
PPE (personal protection equipment) – rain coat
Frequent maintenance of water tap (greasing) Establish operating procedures (slowly open the water tap)
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METHOD: HAZOP
Deviation
Cause Consequence
Safeguard
Recommendations
High pressure in pipeline
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METHOD: HAZOP
Deviation
Cause Consequence
Safeguard
Recommendations
High pressure in pipeline
Malfunctioning pump Human error (increasing the operating pressure)
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METHOD: HAZOP
Deviation
Cause Consequence
Safeguard
Recommendations
High pressure in pipeline
Malfunctioning pump Human error (increasing the operating pressure)
Leakage from the welds/flanges and ignition with a following jet fire (possible injuries)
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METHOD: HAZOP
Deviation
Cause Consequence
Safeguard
Recommendations
High pressure in pipeline
Malfunctioning pump Human error (increasing the operating pressure)
Leakage from the welds/flanges and ignition with a following jet fire (possible injuries)
Automatic shut-down of pump (rotation speed or similar)
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METHOD: HAZOP
Deviation
Cause Consequence
Safeguard
Recommendations
High pressure in pipeline
Malfunctioning pump Human error (increasing the operating pressure)
Leakage from the welds/flanges and ignition with a following jet fire (possible injuries)
Automatic shut-down of pump (rotation speed or similar)
Consider the need for installing a pressure safety valve (PSV) or pressure relief valve (PRV)
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Description
“FTA is a top down, deductive failure analysis in which an
undesired state of a system is analysed using Boolean logic
to combine a series of lower-level events”
• Often used for technical safety engineering and
reliability engineering to understand how systems can
fail and to quantify how often systems can fail
• What is Boolean logic? - Boolean logic is a mathematical
logic in which the values of the variables are the truth
values (i.e. true and false)
METHOD: FAULT TREE ANALYSIS (FTA)
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• Events
- Basic event - failure or error in a system component
- Conditional event - conditions that restrict or affect
logic gates (e.g. need to be in operation)
• Gates
- AND-gate – only when all inputs occur
- OR-gate – when any input occurs
- Exclusive OR-gate – only when one input occur
• Quantify through addition and multiplication
(frequencies and probabilities)
METHOD: FAULT TREE ANALYSIS
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METHOD: FAULT TREE ANALYSIS
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• Which risk identification method should I choose?
- method to feel comfortable with
• Method depending on the situation (e.g. complexity,
stage of project and time)
• Method depending on the purpose (e.g. mapping of
possible causes or consequences)
• Risk identification could be applicable for all kind of
situations and problems
• Not just one time - never-ending process (i.e. changes)
METHODS FOR RISK IDENTIFICATION
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QUESTIONS?