Tobacco-Free Ireland 2025: What kinds of investments are needed?

Professor Luke Clancy WCTOH 2015

Cigarette Smoking Prevalence Jan – Dec 2014

Do You Smoke one or More Cigarettes per week?

Cigarette prevalence by Gender12 month moving average

Proportion of Cigarette Smokers by Socio-economic group

Jan – Dec 2014

SimSmoke Modelling David Levy

Example: Ireland SimSmoke Male Prevalence with Individual FCTC Policies

Policies/Year 2010 2011 2020 2030 2040

% Change in Smoking Prevalence from Status Quo          

Independent Policy Effects       

        Tax 70% of Retail Price -3.3% -4.3% -5.5% -6.6%

        Complete Smoke Free & Enforcement -0.2% -0.3% -0.3% -0.3%

        Comprehensive Ad Ban & Enforcement -0.5% -0.6% -0.7% -0.7%

        High Intensity Tobacco Control Campaign -6.3% -7.3% -8.2% -8.9%

        Strong Health Warnings -1.2% -1.5% -1.6% -1.6%

        Strong Youth Access Enforcement  -0.4% -2.5% -4.2% -6.0%

        Cessation Treatment Policies -2.2% -4.3% -5.5% -5.9% Combined Policy Effects                All above, including Youth Access -13.5% -19.9% -24.6% -28.1%

Predictions from SimSmoke Ireland

• Even with full compliance with MPOWER no country that we examined can reach elimination by 2040

• We need more and better policies particularly on the supply side

HCP Smoking

Referral by HCPs to Cessation Services

Online & social media1

1-1 clinics3On the phone2

Support groups4

1. Third party contractor

2. Health Service staff and third party contractor

3. Health Service staff

4. Health Service staff

Trained cessation support staff Standard Treatment ProgrammeTrack and Support Quitters for 12 months

The QUIT Team

EU Role in Tobacco Control

EU Directives

EC Recommendations

DG Sanco

Mass Media Multimillion Budget

Research funding

The Tobacco Industry

FCTC Article 5.3

Tobacco giant issues legal threat over plain packagingBenson and Hedges owner warns of legal action unless Ministers halt legislationTue, Feb 17, 2015Japan Tobacco’s packaging objections look set for courts‘Big Tobacco’ watches closely as plain packaging precedent may affect larger EU marketsWed, Feb 18, 2015Reilly to restrict tenders from firms linked to tobacco groupArthur Cox threatened action against State over plain cigarette packagingFri, Feb 27, 2015James Reilly’s plan to move on firms with tobacco contracts could hit snagSat, Feb 28, 2015

Not a single elected politician in the Dáil or Seanad voted against the

Standardised Packaging of Tobacco Act 2015

Illicit Trade 

The Future of Nicotine Dependence

Gerry’s 3 ads create dissonance• Prompt quit attempt  • 80-90% will quit alone• Promote Services

TV – Why to QUIT

• Radio Copy - complete emphasis on QUIT Team, we can help, twice as likely

• Digital  - Twice as likely, quit now, calculator. Focus on visits and signing up

• Hopeful, supportive

RADIO AND DIGITAL – HOW TO QUIT

The Media Package