today’s topics - rsmeans.com...rsmeans data tim duggan gordian director of analytics, rsmeans data...
TRANSCRIPT
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Today’s Topics
© 2018 The Gordian Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved.2
Data Overview
Materials and Locations
Industry Update
Q&A
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Presenters
© 2018 The Gordian Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved.3
Noam Reininger
Gordian
Chief Data Officer
Geni Medeiros
Gordian
Research Manager, RSMeans data
Tim Duggan
Gordian
Director of Analytics, RSMeans data
Bob Mewis
Gordian
Director of Engineering & Production, RSMeans data
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Introduction
© 2018 The Gordian Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved.4
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Investing in cloud technology
Technology
© 2018 The Gordian Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Increase data and efficiency
5
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Combining Our Data with External Datasets
• For example steel futures
• 1. Makes predictive data better
• 2. Enable more statistical controls for the quality and fidelity of the data we deliver to customers every day
Data Science
Investment in data science and AI
Better data and predict future construction costs
© 2018 The Gordian Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved.6
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External Datasets
© 2018 The Gordian Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved.7
Merge RSMeans data with external datasets
Statistical control, data quality and fidelity
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Gordian’s Data Organization
Produces high quality, accurate and local construction cost data
Research Engineering AnalyticsQuality
Assurance & Delivery
© 2018 The Gordian Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved.8
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Gordian’s Data Organization
Construction Cost Researchers who
source local material, labor and equipment
pricing.
Research
© 2018 The Gordian Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved.9
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Gordian’s Data Organization
Construction Cost Researchers who
source local material, labor and equipment
pricing.
Research
Cost Engineers with specialties in civil,
mechanical, electrical, plumbing
etc.
Engineering
© 2018 The Gordian Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved.10
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Gordian’s Data Organization
Construction Cost Researchers who
source local material, labor and equipment
pricing.
Research
Cost Engineers with specialties in civil,
mechanical, electrical, plumbing
etc.
Engineering
Data Scientists responsible for
statistical validation of cost data and
delivery of predictive models.
Analytics
© 2018 The Gordian Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved.11
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Gordian’s Data Organization
Construction Cost Researchers who
source local material, labor and equipment
pricing.
Research
Cost Engineers with specialties in civil,
mechanical, electrical, plumbing
etc.
Engineering
Data Scientists responsible for
statistical validation of cost data and
delivery of predictive models.
Analytics
Quality Assurance Engineers and
Publishers ensuring data fidelity for books and digital products.
Quality Assurance &
Delivery
© 2018 The Gordian Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved.12
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Gordian’s Data Organization
500+ years construction experience
Research Engineering AnalyticsQuality
Assurance & Delivery
© 2018 The Gordian Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved.13
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Construction Data Overview
© 2018 The Gordian Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved.14
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Unit Cost Line Items
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Material Labor Equipment Productivity Unit Cost Line Item
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Materials
© 2018 The Gordian Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved.16
54,000+ construction materials
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Labor
© 2018 The Gordian Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved.17
Collect wage rates for:
Union Open Shop Residential
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Equipment
© 2018 The Gordian Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved.18
Add average markups:
Workers compensation
insurance
Home office overhead
Profit
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Productivity
© 2018 The Gordian Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved.19
How much work can be done?
Collect & evaluate data
Integrate into unit cost
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Changes in the Data (EXAMPLE)
© 2018 The Gordian Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved.20
Structural Concrete
Site-Cast Concrete
Reinforcement Bars
Concrete
Overall
Structural Panels
Shutters Framing
Wood
+6%
+2%+4%
+4%+6% -2% -2% 6% -2%
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RSMeans data Changes from 2017-18
© 2018 The Gordian Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved.21
Construction cost database contains 88,667 Unit Cost Line items
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RSMeans data Changes from 2017-18
© 2018 The Gordian Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved.22
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Changes from 2017-18
© 2018 The Gordian Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved.23
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Materials and Locations
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Reasons for Material Cost Changes
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Availability Location Time of year
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Biggest Material Cost Changes
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Lumber
Some areas experienced a 26% increase year over year
© 2018 The Gordian Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved.27
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Updating Cost Indexes
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Cost Indexes
City Cost Indexes (CCI) Historical Cost Indexes
© 2018 The Gordian Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved.29
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Cost Indexes
City Cost Indexes (CCI)
• Location factors• Compare one city’s costs
to the national average• Must be used within
current year
Historical Cost Indexes
© 2018 The Gordian Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved.30
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Cost Indexes
City Cost Indexes (CCI)
• Location factors• Compare one city’s costs
to the national average• Must be used within
current year
Historical Cost Indexes
• Construction cost indexes• Relationship of a city’s
cost to the national average over time
• Shows historical cost trends
© 2018 The Gordian Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved.31
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Using the Indexes
1. Richmond, VA2. Fargo, ND
3. Elizabeth City, NC
4. Twin Falls, ID
5. Shreveport, LA
6. Sioux Falls, ND
7. Lynchburg, VA
8. Wenatchee, WA
9. Augusta, ME
10. Kittery, ME
© 2018 The Gordian Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved.32
Highest Change by City:
1. West Palm Beach, FL
2. Pine Bluff, AR
3. Tyler, TX
4. Youngstown, OH
5. Miami, FL
6. Lakeland, FL
7. McAllen, TX
8. Jackson, MS
9. Tampa, FL
10. Corpus Christi, TX
Lowest Change by City:
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Cost Index Factors
© 2018 The Gordian Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved.33
• Material prices
• Equipment rental rates
• Diesel fuel costs• Trade wages
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Effects of Natural Disasters
© 2018 The Gordian Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved.34
Open Shop Wages
$
Union Wages Overall Project Cost
$
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Industry Update
© 2018 The Gordian Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved.35
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RSMeans data Models
© 2018 The Gordian Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved.36
100+ Square
Foot Models
Healthcare Education Commercial and Retail
State, Local and Federal Government
Office Buildings
and Hotels
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Model Year Over Year Comparisons
© 2018 The Gordian Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved.37
$0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70
Retail Store
Office
Nursing Home
Hotel
Courthouse
College Classroom
Total Cost in Millions
Total Cost 2018 Total Cost 2017
2.82% increase
0.75% increase
2.53% increase
1.92% increase
2.58% increase
1.85% increase
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College Classroom - Assembly
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College Classroom – MasterFormat ‘95
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College Classroom – MasterFormat ‘16
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Courthouse - Assembly
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Courthouse – MasterFormat ‘95
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Hotels - Assembly
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Hotels – MasterFormat ‘95
© 2018 The Gordian Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved.44
-6% -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%
Site Const.
Concrete
Masonry
Metals
Wood & Plastics
Therm. & Moist. Protection
Doors & Windows
Finishes
Special Const.
Convey. Systems
Mechanical
Electrical
MF9
5 C
om
po
ne
nt
Percent Total Change from '17 to '18
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Hotels – MasterFormat ‘16
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Nursing Home – Assembly
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Nursing Home – MasterFormat Comparisons
© 2018 The Gordian Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved.47
MasterFormat 95 MasterFormat 16
-2% 3% 8% 13%
Site Const.
Concrete
Masonry
Metals
Wood & Plastics
Therm. & Moist. Protection
Doors & Windows
Finishes
Special Const.
Conveying Systems
Mechanical
Electrical
MF9
5 C
om
po
nen
t
Percent Total Change from '17 to '18
-2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%
Concrete
Masonry
Metals
Wood, Plastics & Comp.
Therm. & Moist. Protection
Openings
Finishes
Conveying Equip.
Fire Suppression
Plumbing
HVAC
Electrical
Elect. Safety & Security
Earthwork
MF1
6 C
om
po
nen
t
Percent Total Change from '17 to 18
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Office – Assembly
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Office – MasterFormat 95
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Office – MasterFormat 16
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Retail – Assembly
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Retail – MasterFormat ‘95
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Retail – MasterFormat ‘16
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Wrap up and Q&A
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With additional questions, please contact Mary-Neil Jackson at [email protected]