today’s presentation will include:
DESCRIPTION
Rural schools data and resource project Main Goal: To provide rural districts in NYS an integrated resource for informed decision-making. Today’s presentation will include:. What already exists: Brief overview of 3 broad data resources for communities and school districts: - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Rural schools data and resource project
Main Goal:
To provide rural districts in NYS an integrated resource for informed decision-making
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Today’s presentation will include:• What already exists:– Brief overview of 3 broad data resources for
communities and school districts:• PAD (Cornell Program on Applied Demographics)• American Factfinder (US Census data)• NCES (Census, Financial, and Administrative data)
• What we hope to develop:– An integrated data base which includes enrollment
trends, projections, community and regional demographics, financial and administrative data
• Feedback from you– What would be most helpful?– What data do you need?– What is the best way for us to provide access, display,
and help in interpreting data?
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http://pad.human.cornell.edu/
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PAD Data
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PAD Data - Profiles
Options:Population and housing
Population - components of changeHousing Units - Components of Change
Labor Statistics
Options:Demographic
SocialEconomicHousing
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• VIEW– http://www.cardi.cornell.edu
• Census – American Factfinder– http://www.census.gov
• NCES– http://nces.ed.gov/surveys/sdds/
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VIEW
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U.S. Census (www.census.gov) American Factfinder
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Factfinder
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NCES – enrollment, financial & administrative data for school districts
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Next step:
• Development of an integrated data resource for the Center for Rural Schools.
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PAD Data - Maps
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NY – Population and Housing
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NY State growth
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NY Population – Components of change
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PAD data - Projections
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NY – population pyramids
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Age-specific net migration rates: What do they tell us?
• How is the population changing (net of births and deaths)?
• How does this vary among the different age groups?
• How does this vary for different states and counties?
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New York State
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Compare to Florida
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Compare to California
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Sullivan County
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Sullivan County
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Sullivan County
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Sullivan County - projections
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Sullivan County - projections
1990 2000 2035
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Sullivan County – ACS Demographic
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County-level age specific net migration
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Sullivan County, NYS
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Compare to Tompkins County, NYS (where Cornell is)
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Compare to Hamilton County, NYS (>% elderly)
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Fallsburg School District
• Case study illustrating what information is available that may be useful to you.
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Fallsburg – historic enrollment
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Fallsburg – enrollment by grade
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Enrollment PROJECTIONS:the next step
• General Methods and Data:
– Grade-progression ratios (cohort survival)• Enrollment data by grade by year, 10 year history• Birth data
– Housing unit method• Number of housing units• Students per housing unit• Planned development added to housing inventory annually
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Grade-progression ratios:measures the net effect of in- and out-migration, transfers to and from private schools, students
repeating grades, drop-outs, etc. *Unique for each district, grade, and year*
YEAR CHANGES B:K K:1 1:2 2:3 3:4 4:5 5:6 6:7 7:8 8:9 9:10 10:11 11:12
98-99/99-00 0.797 1.007 0.943 0.982 1.033 1.037 0.892 0.975 0.948 0.947 0.995 0.969 0.98399-00/00-01 0.848 0.954 0.942 0.976 0.989 0.953 0.912 0.997 1.000 1.009 0.975 0.998 0.90200-01/01-02 0.923 0.949 0.936 0.990 0.979 0.941 0.982 0.993 1.035 1.114 1.027 0.960 0.94601-02/02-03 1.029 0.958 1.003 1.007 1.002 1.058 1.005 1.011 0.903 1.123 0.868 0.932 0.93802-03/03-04 0.951 1.005 0.959 1.003 1.029 0.988 0.919 0.935 0.998 1.108 0.851 1.042 0.85903-04/04-05 1.088 0.951 0.958 0.979 0.977 0.915 0.957 1.002 1.010 1.104 0.983 0.940 0.859
Average 0.910 0.971 0.948 0.989 1.002 0.980 0.955 0.996 0.998 1.092 0.995 0.960 0.901
Last 5 Year Trend 0.968 0.964 0.959 0.991 0.995 0.971 0.955 0.988 0.989 1.092 0.941 0.974 0.901
Last 2 Year "trend" 1.020 0.978 0.958 0.991 1.003 0.951 0.938 0.969 1.004 1.106 0.917 0.991 0.859
Last Year Pattern 1.088 0.951 0.958 0.979 0.977 0.915 0.957 1.002 1.010 1.104 0.983 0.940 0.859
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Another way to display progression ratios:
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Projections K-12 (also by grade grouping)
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Wrap up
• We would like your feedback on what you have seen so far.
• What would be most helpful to you?• What kind of data do you need to make
informed decisions?• How would you like to access the data? How
would you like it to be displayed? What sort of support from Cornell do you think you would need to interpret and use this data?
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Thank You
• Thank you for your help and support in this endeavor.
• If you have further suggestions or questions, here is our contact information:
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Program on Applied Demographics Group
Joe D. FrancisDirector of Program on
Applied Demographics2nd Floor Beebe HallCornell UniversityIthaca, NY 14853(607) [email protected]
Jan VinkResearch Support SpecialistProgram on Applied
Demographics2nd Floor Beebe HallCornell UniversityIthaca, NY 14853
(607) 255-8399jkv3@cornell .edu
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CaRDI GroupRobin BlakelyExtension AssociateCommunity & Rural
Development InstituteCornell UniversityIthaca, NY 14853
(607) [email protected]
David KayExtension AssociateCommunity & Rural
Development InstituteCornell UniversityIthaca, NY 14853
(607) [email protected]