tomorrow’s child

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Tomorrow’s child Tomorrow’s child Brian Harvey, Brian Harvey, Barnardos, Tallaght, 7 Barnardos, Tallaght, 7 th th May 2009 May 2009 [email protected] [email protected]

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Tomorrow’s child. Brian Harvey, Barnardos , Tallaght , 7 th May 2009 [email protected]. Purpose of Tomorrow’s child. Look at social trends affecting children Note: little trend data until recently What does this mean for next 10-15 years? - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Tomorrow’s child

Tomorrow’s childTomorrow’s child

Brian Harvey,Brian Harvey,

Barnardos, Tallaght, 7Barnardos, Tallaght, 7thth May May 20092009

[email protected]@iol.ie

Page 2: Tomorrow’s child

Purpose of Purpose of Tomorrow’s childTomorrow’s child► Look at social trends affecting childrenLook at social trends affecting children►Note: little trend data until recentlyNote: little trend data until recently►What does this mean for next 10-15 years?What does this mean for next 10-15 years?►Not a policy report but does look at trends in Not a policy report but does look at trends in

policy, political environmentpolicy, political environment► Unusually rapidly changing background Unusually rapidly changing background

20082008

MethodMethod

Study of trends dataStudy of trends data

Interviews with key informantsInterviews with key informants

Page 3: Tomorrow’s child

A word of caution about A word of caution about predictionprediction

►There are the known There are the known knowns and the unknown knowns and the unknown knowns. And then there knowns. And then there are the known unknowns. are the known unknowns. And then there are the And then there are the unknown unknowns.unknown unknowns.

► Donald RumsfeldDonald Rumsfeld

Page 4: Tomorrow’s child

Demographic trendsDemographic trends► Rapid population growth, driven by in-Rapid population growth, driven by in-

migration, may now change.migration, may now change.►Numbers of children falling since 1981, but Numbers of children falling since 1981, but

with a recovery turn of the centurywith a recovery turn of the century► Families are smallerFamilies are smaller► Childbirth concentrated on early to mid 30s. Childbirth concentrated on early to mid 30s.

Parents are older now.Parents are older now.► Traditional family remains the normTraditional family remains the norm► Family patterns remarkably stable. Family patterns remarkably stable.

Marriage more popular than ever.Marriage more popular than ever.

Page 5: Tomorrow’s child

Spatial, settlement trendsSpatial, settlement trends► Significant changes in settlement patternsSignificant changes in settlement patterns► Shift of population to eastern arcShift of population to eastern arc►Distinct growth areas e.g. TAM, Dublin-BelfastDistinct growth areas e.g. TAM, Dublin-Belfast►Children living in new homes in low-density Children living in new homes in low-density

developmentdevelopment►Growth of apartment living, not yet for Growth of apartment living, not yet for

childrenchildren►Car as dominant mode for children’s living Car as dominant mode for children’s living

patterns (school, socializing, sport etc)patterns (school, socializing, sport etc)► Arrival of the new communities, with high skill Arrival of the new communities, with high skill

levels and at age of family formation.levels and at age of family formation.►Migration peak 2007, some migrants Migration peak 2007, some migrants

returned. Asylum peaked 2002, bottomed out.returned. Asylum peaked 2002, bottomed out.

Page 6: Tomorrow’s child

Demography: Demography: Tomorrow’s childTomorrow’s child►Continued population growthContinued population growth► Live in new homes in drift to the eastLive in new homes in drift to the east► Some may grow up in apartmentsSome may grow up in apartments► Environmental issues more importantEnvironmental issues more important►No, one, even two siblings, not moreNo, one, even two siblings, not more►Will grow up in a stable familyWill grow up in a stable family► Parents will both work for their lifetimeParents will both work for their lifetime► Part of a more diverse population. Migrant Part of a more diverse population. Migrant

and intermarried families. Visibility, and intermarried families. Visibility, vulnerability of Africans.vulnerability of Africans.

Page 7: Tomorrow’s child

Social trends (1)Social trends (1)►A gradually falling but high rate of child A gradually falling but high rate of child

poverty, always above the adult ratepoverty, always above the adult rate►Increasing, but still low and costly level Increasing, but still low and costly level

of early childhood education and care of early childhood education and care ►Persistence of inequalities, under-Persistence of inequalities, under-

performance in educationperformance in education►Girls increasingly outperform boysGirls increasingly outperform boys►Schoolchildren increasingly workSchoolchildren increasingly work►Children go to school by carChildren go to school by car

Page 8: Tomorrow’s child

Social trends (2)Social trends (2)

►Stable crime, youth crime ratesStable crime, youth crime rates►Relatively low rates of illegal drug useRelatively low rates of illegal drug use►Increasing securitization by governmentIncreasing securitization by government►Persistence of vulnerability for some Persistence of vulnerability for some

children at extreme risk: Travellers, children at extreme risk: Travellers, homeless, poor housinghomeless, poor housing

►Children with disability live longer, but Children with disability live longer, but at risk of povertyat risk of poverty

Page 9: Tomorrow’s child

Social trends: Social trends: Tomorrow’s Tomorrow’s childchild►More likely to get early childhood education More likely to get early childhood education

and care, in multiple settingsand care, in multiple settings► If from disadvantaged group or area, will be If from disadvantaged group or area, will be

poorpoor► If Traveller child, a lifetime of adversity, If Traveller child, a lifetime of adversity,

hardshiphardship►Will study longer, to 21+Will study longer, to 21+► At school, more take grindsAt school, more take grinds►Will grow up in a safe environmentWill grow up in a safe environment►Will live in a new home with more personal Will live in a new home with more personal

spacespace►Will be surveilled moreWill be surveilled more

Page 10: Tomorrow’s child

Living trends (1)Living trends (1)► Positive health, living indicators, especially in Positive health, living indicators, especially in

new homes, high ‘happiness’ ratesnew homes, high ‘happiness’ rates►Decline in mental ill-health, except for poorDecline in mental ill-health, except for poor► Improved father/mother sharing in householdsImproved father/mother sharing in households►Most children have positive experience of Most children have positive experience of

schoolschool►Curricula have improved, but schools still Curricula have improved, but schools still

traditional values, feminization teacher forcetraditional values, feminization teacher force►Continued attraction of traditional subjectsContinued attraction of traditional subjects► Science, languages not improvingScience, languages not improving►Children ambitious for careers, mobileChildren ambitious for careers, mobile►Widening, creative career choicesWidening, creative career choices

Page 11: Tomorrow’s child

Living trends (2)Living trends (2)►One fifth of children with problem health One fifth of children with problem health

behaviour e.g. obesity, alcohol, smokingbehaviour e.g. obesity, alcohol, smoking►Children high users of new technologiesChildren high users of new technologies►Have colonized distinct areas (web2)Have colonized distinct areas (web2)► Follow parental political choices. Religious Follow parental political choices. Religious

behaviour moving to continental norm. Few behaviour moving to continental norm. Few statements of secularization exc. marriage statements of secularization exc. marriage (22%)(22%)

► Immigrant children highly motivated at Immigrant children highly motivated at school, endure racism, role of teachersschool, endure racism, role of teachers

► Irish Irish and and European sense of identityEuropean sense of identity

Page 12: Tomorrow’s child

Living: Living: Tomorrow’s childTomorrow’s child► Will grow up in a more shared, democratic Will grow up in a more shared, democratic

homehome► May go to wider range of schools (multi-May go to wider range of schools (multi-

denominational, gaelscoilleanna)denominational, gaelscoilleanna)► Will have good and improving health, unless Will have good and improving health, unless

poorpoor► One fifth at risk of health endangermentOne fifth at risk of health endangerment► Increasingly use new technologies in own spaceIncreasingly use new technologies in own space► Formal religious adherence, not behaviourFormal religious adherence, not behaviour► Schools will be more ethnically diverseSchools will be more ethnically diverse► Development of shared identitiesDevelopment of shared identities

Page 13: Tomorrow’s child

Policy trendsPolicy trends► A low-tax, low-spend model of economic A low-tax, low-spend model of economic

development: we have & will have inadequate development: we have & will have inadequate services for childrenservices for children

►Unusually low rate of social spending cf EU27Unusually low rate of social spending cf EU27► Children’s strategies proposed 1970Children’s strategies proposed 1970► Policies, architecture not set in place until Policies, architecture not set in place until

2000. Concept of children’s rights 2000. Concept of children’s rights (constitutional amendment?).(constitutional amendment?).

► Still serious deficits in services which put Still serious deficits in services which put children at risk.children at risk.

►Model, scope, scale, cost of early childhood Model, scope, scale, cost of early childhood education and care problematical.education and care problematical.

Page 14: Tomorrow’s child

European backgroundEuropean background►EU has exercised faint but discernible EU has exercised faint but discernible

influence in driving up social standards influence in driving up social standards (e.g. childcare, women, discrimination)(e.g. childcare, women, discrimination)

► Ireland committed minimally to social Ireland committed minimally to social values inherent in European projectvalues inherent in European project

►Flexicurity debate important for Flexicurity debate important for shaping children’s life patternsshaping children’s life patterns

►Ageing of Europe, then Ireland: longer Ageing of Europe, then Ireland: longer working livesworking lives

Page 15: Tomorrow’s child

Europe: Europe: Tomorrow’s childTomorrow’s child- Europe will be pre-occupied with old Europe will be pre-occupied with old

people more than children, Ireland will people more than children, Ireland will followfollow

- Work to 70+Work to 70+- Start thinking pension very earlyStart thinking pension very early- Flexicurity: many career changes, mobility, Flexicurity: many career changes, mobility,

change jobs, re-train, re-skill, more self-change jobs, re-train, re-skill, more self-reliantreliant

- Underlying problem of orientation: Underlying problem of orientation: Berlin Berlin or Boston? or Boston? Social services still informed by Social services still informed by English-speaking, Atlantic model.English-speaking, Atlantic model.

Page 16: Tomorrow’s child

Tomorrow’s childTomorrow’s child: surprises: surprises►No sex or religion, please. We know almost No sex or religion, please. We know almost

nothing about sexual behaviour, religious beliefnothing about sexual behaviour, religious belief►How little school has changed. The great non-How little school has changed. The great non-

issue: mixed schooling issue: mixed schooling ►Many moral panics about children in areas of Many moral panics about children in areas of

illegal drugs, smoking, alcohol, obesity, suicide, illegal drugs, smoking, alcohol, obesity, suicide, crime, ‘the family’, not justified by careful crime, ‘the family’, not justified by careful reading of figures, statisticsreading of figures, statistics

►MostMost children have remarkably positive children have remarkably positive indicators, many good sub-trends e.g. healthy indicators, many good sub-trends e.g. healthy eating, exerciseeating, exercise

► This makes the poverty, hardship, lack of life This makes the poverty, hardship, lack of life chances, services for the few (20%) all the more chances, services for the few (20%) all the more unacceptableunacceptable

Page 17: Tomorrow’s child

Tomorrow’s childTomorrow’s child: the : the challengechallenge

► Positive indicators dragged down by Positive indicators dragged down by performance on child poverty, lack of performance on child poverty, lack of services, educational outcomes, neglect, services, educational outcomes, neglect, cost and availability of early childhood cost and availability of early childhood educationeducation

►Re-defining child poverty downward:Re-defining child poverty downward:

Rate in 2006: 23.4% (relative poverty)Rate in 2006: 23.4% (relative poverty) Rate in 2008: 7% (consistent poverty)Rate in 2008: 7% (consistent poverty) Rate in 2009: End of independent dataRate in 2009: End of independent data

Page 18: Tomorrow’s child

Tomorrow’s child Tomorrow’s child in disaster in disaster capitalism (Naomi Klein) (1)capitalism (Naomi Klein) (1)

► Enormous damage from dismantling poverty, Enormous damage from dismantling poverty, equality, childhood infrastructure. Loss of equality, childhood infrastructure. Loss of data, knowledge, know-how, legitimacy, data, knowledge, know-how, legitimacy, champions.champions.

►Making ‘problem’ children invisible.Making ‘problem’ children invisible.► Squeeze on education, welfare budgets (esp. Squeeze on education, welfare budgets (esp.

qualification conditions).qualification conditions).►HSE cuts yet to come. Child protection?HSE cuts yet to come. Child protection?►Government opting for 3-year programme of Government opting for 3-year programme of

cuts. Parents will pay more for children’s cuts. Parents will pay more for children’s education from diminished budgets.education from diminished budgets.

Page 19: Tomorrow’s child

Tomorrow’s child Tomorrow’s child in disaster capitalism in disaster capitalism (2)(2)

► Expect a rapid rise in child poverty as Expect a rapid rise in child poverty as unemployment reaches 500,000.unemployment reaches 500,000.

►Disimprovement in social, health indicators.Disimprovement in social, health indicators.►No state agency to monitor or defend.No state agency to monitor or defend.► Loss of trust in government, institutions, Loss of trust in government, institutions,

with unpredictable political outcomes.with unpredictable political outcomes.►Conservative political alternatives.Conservative political alternatives.►NGOs: challenge to re-build, re-construct, re-NGOs: challenge to re-build, re-construct, re-

shape, with fresh partners, a new future for shape, with fresh partners, a new future for Tomorrow’s childTomorrow’s child. .

- Thank you for your attention!Thank you for your attention!