Tool for ex-ante estimation of forestry CERs –

"TARAM"

February 06, 2008February 06, 2008

Lucio Pedroni & Sebastian ScholzLucio Pedroni & Sebastian Scholz

& LAC Climate Change TeamLAC Climate Change Team

How many tonnes of C sequestered How many tonnes of C sequestered will my project deliver?will my project deliver?

TARAM has the answer!TARAM has the answer!

Objective: facilitate application of Objective: facilitate application of approved AR methodologiesapproved AR methodologies

TARAM – Main FeaturesTARAM – Main Features

Excel-based tool – linked spreadsheetsExcel-based tool – linked spreadsheets

Links to outside resources, e.g. AR methsLinks to outside resources, e.g. AR meths

Internal links for further information Internal links for further information

e.g. IPCC GPG – LULUCFe.g. IPCC GPG – LULUCF

Color coded cells - “yellow” is importantColor coded cells - “yellow” is important

Color coded spreadsheetsColor coded spreadsheets

MethMeth

SpeciesSpecies

BLS1 - BLS6BLS1 - BLS6

SM1 - SM6SM1 - SM6

StrataStrata

AR-PlanAR-Plan

Pre-ARPre-AR

BlexaBlexa

AexaAexa

DistanceDistance

LKLK

CERsCERs

FinancialFinancial

ChartChart

IPCC tables

USDA density table

Selection of applicable Selection of applicable AR methodologyAR methodology

Parameter values for all Parameter values for all tree and woody species in tree and woody species in

baseline and project baseline and project scenarioscenario

6 worksheets for different 6 worksheets for different baseline stratabaseline strata6 worksheets for different 6 worksheets for different stand modelsstand modelsOverlay of baseline strata Overlay of baseline strata

and stand modelsand stand modelsAmount of ha per stratum Amount of ha per stratum to be afforested / to be afforested /

reforested each yearreforested each yearApplies only in situations Applies only in situations

with pre-project AR with pre-project AR activities in the baselineactivities in the baseline

Estimated ex ante Estimated ex ante baseline GHG removalsbaseline GHG removalsEstimated ex ante actual Estimated ex ante actual

GHG removalsGHG removalsDistances to and from the Distances to and from the AR sites – input for AR sites – input for leakage estimationleakage estimationCalculation of the Calculation of the project’s leakageproject’s leakage

Estimated volume of Estimated volume of tCERs or lCERstCERs or lCERsOptional: financial Optional: financial

analysis of the activityanalysis of the activityChart shows removals Chart shows removals and associated flow of and associated flow of

CERsCERsIPCC GPG-LULUCF IPCC GPG-LULUCF

default valuesdefault valuesWood densities of Wood densities of tropical tree speciestropical tree species

= $

So far, foresters have been concerned about the trunk volume.

This good, because data about this key variable for estimating forest carbon should be available almost everywhere...

V = Trunk volume

BEF = Biomass Expansion Factor

R = Root to Shoot Ratio

Above-Ground Biomass (AGB) = V*BEF*DBelow-ground Biomass = ABG*RAbout half of the biomass is Carbon

D = Wood Density

j

j

j

j

j = Species dependent

, t

t = Time dependent

Key VariablesKey Variables

Volume / Age RelationshipVolume / Age Relationship

Volume / age relationship represented byVolume / age relationship represented by cumulative growth curve (CGC)cumulative growth curve (CGC)

- sigmoid for trees - - sigmoid for trees -

1.1. Juvenile phase (youth) - accelerating rate of Juvenile phase (youth) - accelerating rate of growthgrowth

2.2. Full vigor phase - constant rate of growthFull vigor phase - constant rate of growth

3.3. Senescent phase - decelerating rate of growthSenescent phase - decelerating rate of growth

Cumulative Growth CurveCumulative Growth Curve

Time

m3 ha-1

Cumulative growth curve

Accelerating rate of growth

Fast, constant rate of growth

Decelerating rate of growth

Forest Stand ManagementForest Stand Management

Standing Volume

Time

m3 ha-1 Cumulative growth curve

Increment / Age RelationshipIncrement / Age Relationship

(1) Current annual increment (CAI): increment over one year at any stage in the tree's history

(2) Mean Annual Increment (MAI): mean annual increment over the whole period from origin to a specific age

Standing Volume

Current Annual Increment

Time

Time

m3 ha-1

m3 ha-1 yr-1

Cumulative growth curve = Total production

Mean Annual Increment

Standing Volume

Current Annual Increment

Time

m3 ha-1

m3 ha-1 yr-1

Method 2Stand volume

Thinning and harvest volume

Method 1

Time

CAI

Thinning and harvest volume

Download TARAM Download TARAM from Bio CF’s from Bio CF’s

website:website:

Thank you!Thank you!

carbonfinance.org

lpedroni@worldbank.org

sscholz@worldbank.org