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Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010 Tools for Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Abigail Baca GFDRR Labs

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Tools for Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation. Abigail Baca GFDRR Labs. Life is uncertain… Disasters? Climate Change? The weather tomorrow?. We need tools that enable informed decision-making about these complex, dynamic systems. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Tools for Disaster Risk Management and  Climate  Change Adaptation

Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010

Tools for Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation

Abigail Baca GFDRR Labs

Page 2: Tools for Disaster Risk Management and  Climate  Change Adaptation

Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010

Life is uncertain…Disasters?

Climate Change?The weather tomorrow?

We need tools that enableinformed decision-making about these complex, dynamic systems

Page 3: Tools for Disaster Risk Management and  Climate  Change Adaptation

Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010

Powerful, accurate models need lots and lots of DATA

Page 4: Tools for Disaster Risk Management and  Climate  Change Adaptation

Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010

Collaboration

Distribution

Cartography

Data collection

Geo Node = + Web Portal

Collaborative mapping and data sharing platforms

Page 5: Tools for Disaster Risk Management and  Climate  Change Adaptation

Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010

Page 6: Tools for Disaster Risk Management and  Climate  Change Adaptation

Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010

Probabilistic Risk Modeling

Risk(i.e probable loss)

Hazard(i.e. hurricane wind)

Exposure(i.e. houses)

Vulnerability(of house to wind)

Disaster Impact Analysis - Scenario or Stochastic -

Page 7: Tools for Disaster Risk Management and  Climate  Change Adaptation

Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010

CAPRA is an ongoing initiative to develop and enhance a set of free and open source GIS-based tools to understand, communicate and support decisions to reduce disaster risk within in Central America.

CAPRA ~ Central American Probabilistic Risk Assessment

Page 8: Tools for Disaster Risk Management and  Climate  Change Adaptation

Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010

Multi-Peril Probabilistic Modeling

EARTHQUAKE HURRICANE INTENSE RAIN VOLCANO

TSUNAMI

GROUND SHAKING / LIQUEFACTION

LANDSLIDES

- GROUND SHAKING- HURRICANE RAINFALL

- OTHER RAINFALL

STRONG WINDS

STORM SURGE

HURRICANE RAINFALL

FLOODS

- HURRICANE RAINFALL- OTHER RAINFALL

ASH FALLS

BALLISTIC EJECTIONS

PYROCLASTIC FLOWS

LAVA FLOWS

Page 9: Tools for Disaster Risk Management and  Climate  Change Adaptation

Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010

Probabilistic Risk Modeling

Risk(i.e probable loss)

Hazard(i.e. hurricane wind)

Exposure(i.e. houses)

Vulnerability(of house to wind)

Disaster Impact Analysis - Scenario or Stochastic -

Page 10: Tools for Disaster Risk Management and  Climate  Change Adaptation

Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010

San Juan del SurNicaragua

Haza

rdEx

posu

re

Risk:Physical Damage, Loss $

Scenario Risk ModelingVu

lner

abili

ty

Page 11: Tools for Disaster Risk Management and  Climate  Change Adaptation

Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010

Stochastic Hazard Modeling

Frequency :How likely is this event? Annual probability of occurrence (i.e. 1/ 100)Severity :How strong is the event?Hurricane Cat 5What does the event look like?Track, Point of landfall, wind field, etc

Stochastic Event Set = All events that could impact a region0.1

1

10

100

10001 10 100 1000

Aceleración [cm/ s² ]

Perio

do de Re

torn

o [a

ños]

0.001

0.01

0.1

1

10

Tasa

de ex

cede

ncia [1/

año]

Page 12: Tools for Disaster Risk Management and  Climate  Change Adaptation

Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010

Climate Change Impact on Disasters

EARTHQUAKE HURRICANE INTENSE RAIN VOLCANO

TSUNAMI

GROUND SHAKING / LIQUEFACTION

LANDSLIDES

- GROUND SHAKING- HURRICANE RAINFALL

- OTHER RAINFALL

STRONG WINDS

STORM SURGE

HURRICANE RAINFALL

FLOODS

- HURRICANE RAINFALL- OTHER RAINFALL

ASH FALLS

BALLISTIC EJECTIONS

PYROCLASTIC FLOWS

LAVA FLOWS

Page 13: Tools for Disaster Risk Management and  Climate  Change Adaptation

Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010

T=100 AÑOS EVENTO EXTRAORDINARIO CATASTRÓFICO

PRESENTE estado actual sin

obras de mitigación

FUTURO con obras de

mitigación diseñadas para

T=100 años

T=100 AÑOS EVENTO EXTRAORDINARIO CATASTRÓFICO

PRESENTE estado actual sin

obras de mitigación

FUTURO con obras de

mitigación diseñadas para

T=100 años

Flood Risk : explore climate change scenarios Base Model

T=100 AÑOS EVENTO EXTRAORDINARIO CATASTRÓFICO

PRESENTE estado actual sin

obras de mitigación

FUTURO con obras de

mitigación diseñadas para

T=100 años

Model A Model B

Page 14: Tools for Disaster Risk Management and  Climate  Change Adaptation

Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010

Hazards

Exposure

Vulnerability

Risk

+

+

+

Applications

Visualization of hazard and risk

Territorial planning

Infrastructure design

Cost Benefit analysis for mitigation and prevention investments

Scenario analysis for emergency preparedness

Immediate damage assessment

Analysis of financial exposure

Climate Change

Page 15: Tools for Disaster Risk Management and  Climate  Change Adaptation

Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010

Internal Demo version of Geo Node Expansion of Probabilistic Risk Models to other regions Integration of Climate Change scenarios into DRM

www.ecapra.orgwww.geonode.org

Abigail [email protected]

Labs