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TRANSCRIPT
TOPIC
Brian Hastie
Electrification Project Lead &
Dealer Network Director
JAGUAR LAND ROVER SOUTH AFRICA
Electric Vehicles:
Are we ready?
• Global growth
• EV Progress in South
African
• Challenges
• Outlook
GLOBAL GROWTH OF EV’S
BEV
• Battery Electric Vehicle
• Fully electric
PHEV
• Plug-in Hybrid Electric
Vehicle
• Partial electric
MHEV
• Mild Hybrid Electric
Vehicle
Exponential
growth of EV’s
EV’s have
Global take-up
“Toyota will stop selling diesel passenger cars in
all European markets by the end of this year”
“Nissan is the latest carmaker to shun diesel and
will prepare to phase the fuel type from its
passenger car line-ups over the coming years”
“Fiat Chrysler - which owns Jeep, Maserati and
Alfa Romeo - has already confirmed it will cease
production in 2022”
“Last month Porsche axed production of all diesel
cars claiming there had been a ‘major cultural shift'
in the market”
Catalyst for EV relevance: Demonisation of Diesel
Switch to Electric now has critical mass
Future growth
of EV’s
Brand ModelBattery
(kWh)Price Units/Year
1 Tesla Model 3 50-75 €37k — €80k* 120,000
2 Nissan Leaf E-Plus 60 € 37,000* 80,000
3 Renault Zoe (next gen) 50? € 27,000* 60,000
4 BMW i3 42 € 48,000* 40,000
5 Hyundai Kona EV 64 € 40,000* 40,000
6 Audi e-tron quattro 95 € 85,000 30,000
7 Kia e-Niro 39-64 € 40,000* 30,000
8 Jaguar I-PACE 90 € 80,000 25,000
9 Hyundai Ioniq 39 € 34,000* 20,000
10 VW ID Neo 48 € 30,000* 20,000
11 Kia Soul EV 39-64 € 40,000* 20,000
12 Mini Electric 42 € 35,000* 20,000
13 Mercedes EQC 80 € 70,000* 15,000
14 VW e-Up! 37 € 21,000* 12,000
15 Porsche Taycan 90 $ 90,000 10,000
16 Skoda e-Citigo 37 € 19,000* 8,000
17 Peugeot 208 60 € 30,000* 8,000
18 Seat e-Mii 37 € 20,000* 6,000
19 Opel / Vauxhall Corsa 60 € 30,000* 5,000
20 DS DS3 Crossback 50 € 35,000* 4,000
21 Peugeot 2008 60 € 35,000* 2,000
>20 EV models to launch in Europe
in 2019
Shift from “Compliance cars” to
Electric cars that deliver and
compete against ICE
SOUTH AFRICAN EV PROGRESS
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
EV PHEV MHEV
Toyota Prius MHEV
from 2005
Toyota & Lexus MHEV
from 2008
BMW, Mercedes, Porsche Hybrid models from 2008
Nissan LeafBEV
from 2013
BMW i8 and i3PHEV & EVfrom 2015
Volvo XC90 PHEV from 2016
92
295
147
MHEV = 551PHEV = 81
2072
1155
270
891
Honda MHEVFrom 2010
Model Availability:
• Limited choice
• Pricing (no benefit in
purchase price), partly due
to Duty Rate
Public Charging:
• No convenient public fast
charging available
• 1st generation product limited
by RANGE 0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Plug-in EV's
BMW NISSAN MERCEDES VOLVO
Brand ModelBattery
(kWh)Price Units/Year
1 Tesla Model 3 50-75 €37k — €80k* 120,000
2 Nissan Leaf E-Plus 60 € 37,000* 80,000
3 Renault Zoe (next gen) 50? € 27,000* 60,000
4 BMW i3 42 € 48,000* 40,000
5 Hyundai Kona EV 64 € 40,000* 40,000
6 Audi e-tron quattro 95 € 85,000 30,000
7 Kia e-Niro 39-64 € 40,000* 30,000
8 Jaguar I-PACE 90 € 80,000 25,000
9 Hyundai Ioniq 39 € 34,000* 20,000
10 VW ID Neo 48 € 30,000* 20,000
11 Kia Soul EV 39-64 € 40,000* 20,000
12 Mini Electric 42 € 35,000* 20,000
13 Mercedes EQC 80 € 70,000* 15,000
14 VW e-Up! 37 € 21,000* 12,000
15 Porsche Taycan 90 $ 90,000 10,000
16 Skoda e-Citigo 37 € 19,000* 8,000
17 Peugeot 208 60 € 30,000* 8,000
18 Seat e-Mii 37 € 20,000* 6,000
19 Opel / Vauxhall Corsa 60 € 30,000* 5,000
20 DS DS3 Crossback 50 € 35,000* 4,000
21 Peugeot 2008 60 € 35,000* 2,000
a)
Slow uptake by South African
Subsidiaries
b)
General lack of understanding
of the EV reality – consumers
don’t know what they’re missing
out on!
EV’s are great cars….
• Performance
• Comfort
• Economy
1%
25%
37%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Diesel engine share of LAMBP’s Volume
Analogy to EV introduction -
growth of diesel power in the luxury
segment in SA:
• Initial slow start
• Then new technology with
enhanced performance launched
• Performance and economy drives
popularity
LIVING WITH AN EV
Home
Work
Out & About
Longer Trips
Long Trips
Overnight charging
Home installed
Charger
(SLOW charging)
$
Charging at work
Office Park, Factory
(SLOW / FAST charging)
$ / $$ Convenient Locations
Shopping Centre, Station
(SLOW / FAST charging)
$$ / $$$$
Highway Stopover
N1, N2, N3 etc.
(FAST charging)
$$ / $$$$
30 Shopping CentresProvide “out & about” convenience
22 Highway StopoversMake long trips possible
+
Polokwane
To
Cape Town
Pretoria
To
Durban
Garden
Route
Gauteng and
Surrounds
(West / North
/ East)
Jaguar POWERWAY,
in partnership with
The load shedding issue:
• Make use of the schedules
• Overnight charging – low impact of load
shedding
• Public charging – generator backup
THE CHALLENGES
Price of EV Products:
• Import Duties: 7%
higher that ICE (Europe
only)
• Lack of Incentives
• Reduced Duty rates could be
recovered via increased sales volume
• Incentives could be recovered via
VAT on EV necessities – chargers,
training etc
Challenges
Cost of selling & servicing
EV Products:
• Tooling & Equipment
• Competency:
Technicians & Sales
Teams
• Initial costs for EV capability are
prohibitive for Retailers
• Competency is onerous, staff
retention challenges
Challenges
Training
Technician safety for high
voltage working
Sales person knowledge of EV to properly help buyers make the
right choice
Equipment
Special tooling for EV
Charging Equipment
Extended Aftersales Support
Panelshop & Roadside
Assistance –Special handling
Battery
Second Use
& Recycling
R360 mil for Equipment and
Training
• Charger Equipment
• Special Tools
• Technician Training
• Sales Training
R600k
per
Dealer
Dealer Network CapabilityPublic Charging
Infrastructure
R 92mil investment in
400 Charging Stations in public
areas
R 300mil spent on
Home Charging units per year
Collective Investment in EV Readiness
Product Cost
Selling Cost
Sceptic Media
Myths
“We’re not ready”
mindset
Challenges
Product Choice
Imported Product Cost
Car Dealer costs & effort to support
EV’s
Product Retail PriceRunning Costs
Public Charging Infrastructure
Home Charging
Confidence in electricity supply
Technology
Taxation model –balancing taxes with potential incentives
Job creation –charger production
& installation
Incentives for Overnight Charging
Current EV Landscape
OUTLOOK
42961
14400
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Most proactive approachForced reactive growthNo Change
• Short term implementation of Vehicle
Pricing incentives
• Adoption of models available globally
• Industry alignment & standardisation
• Steady and viable growth of Public
infrastructure
• Status quo in short to medium term
• Eventually non-EV options run out and
EV’s are adopted in a sudden way
• Chaotic environment created by
unrealistic demands on capability
• Potential lack of standardisation
• Status quo beyond medium term
• Reduced variety & options available to
consumer
• Existing obstacles remain
Standardisation
Key elements for EV success:
Electric Vehicles:
Are we ready?
Q&A