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Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy Finkelstein for generously providing their lecture notes, some of which are reproduced here Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Fall, 2018 1 / 114

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Page 1: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance

Nathaniel Hendren

Harvard and NBER

Fall, 2018

Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy Finkelstein for generously providing their lecturenotes, some of which are reproduced here

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Fall, 2018 1 / 114

Page 2: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

Public Health Insurance

Medicaid is the largest transfer program in the US ($550B in 2015)

Potential rationales for gov’t provision:Adverse selectionSamaritan’s dilemma (uncompensated care)Externalities on othersProductive impacts on children

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 2 / 114

Page 3: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

Goals of This Lecture

Impact of Public Health Insurance on AdultsConsumption smoothing / reducing high out of pocket spendingIncreases in healthcare utilization (i.e. “moral hazard”)Labor supply

Conduct/discuss welfare analysisStructural assumptions vs. revealed preferenceRole of uncompensated care

Impact of health on ChildrenLarge evidence of health impacts

GE E�ectsInsurance increases hospital expansion/innovation/etcLeads to increased costs...

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 3 / 114

Page 4: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

Key Themes: It’s all about the kids...

Insurance limits out of pocket payments and decreases financial stressDoes not have (measurable) health impacts on adults

Large crowd-out of uncompensated care in recent expansionsThe uninsured aren’t fully “uninsured”

In contrast, lots of evidence suggesting insurance improves health forchildren

Similar to MTO / neighborhoods?Strong evidence insurance increases costs through GE e�ects

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 4 / 114

Page 5: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

1 Impact of Medicaid on Adults

2 Welfare Analysis of Medicaid

3 Impact Medicaid on Children

4 Impact of Medicare: Health and GE E�ects

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 4 / 114

Page 6: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

Oregon Health Insurance Experiment

In 2008, Oregon ran a lottery for its Medicaid program for low-incomeadults

Was previously closed to new enrollment

Approximately 90,000 people signed up.Budget for 10,000 people

Lotteried 30,000 with ~30% takeup

Finkelstein et al. (2012, QJE “The Oregon Health InsuranceExperiment: Evidence from the First Year”)

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 5 / 114

Page 7: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

Oregon Health Insurance Experiment

Intention to treat specification

yi = b0 + b1LOTTERYi + b2Xi + ei

where Xi are covariates correlated with probability of winning thelottery (e.g. household size)

LATE specification

yi = p0 + p1INSURANCEi + p2Xi + ni

where first stage is

INSURANCEi = g0 + g1LOTTERYi + g2Xi + hi

Compliers are those induced to get insurance through the lottery

Begin with impacts on utilizationNathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 6 / 114

Page 8: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

Hospitalization Utilization Increases (QJE, 2012)

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 7 / 114

Page 9: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

Emergency Department Use (Science, 2014)

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 8 / 114

Page 10: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

Emergency Department Use (Science, 2014)

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 9 / 114

Page 11: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

Emergency Department Use (Science, 2014)

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 10 / 114

Page 12: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

Emergency Department Use (NEJM, 2016)

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 11 / 114

Page 13: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

Preventative Care (NEJM, 2013)

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 12 / 114

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Diabetes Diagnosis (NEJM, 2013)

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 13 / 114

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Utilization Summary

Increases in healthcare utilization across the boardED use goes up (contrary to some theories)Preventative care increasesIncreased diagnosis of diabetes

What about financial strain?

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 14 / 114

Page 16: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

Oregon Health Insurance Experiment

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 15 / 114

Page 17: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

Oregon Health Insurance Experiment

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 16 / 114

Page 18: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

Oregon Health Insurance Experiment

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 17 / 114

Page 19: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

Reduction in Collections (QJE, 2012)

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 18 / 114

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Reduction in Self-Reported Hardship (NEJM, 2013)

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 19 / 114

Page 21: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

Financial Strain Summary

Robust evidence that Medicaid reduces financial strainLower OOP spendingFewer bankruptciesFewer collectionsetc...

What about health outcomes?

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 20 / 114

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No change in blood pressure (NEJM, 2013)

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 21 / 114

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Some reductions in depression (NEJM, 2013)

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 22 / 114

Page 24: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

Health Impacts Summary

Some evidence of increased subjective well-being and reduceddepression

But, no statistically significant change in medical conditions

Lack of power?

Also can’t reject clinical trial estimated impact on outcomes

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 23 / 114

Page 25: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

Medicaid and Fiscal Externalities

What about impacts on labor supply and other program participation?

Why do we care?

Fiscal externality...

Is the LATE what we want?

What about ex-ante responses?

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 24 / 114

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Impacts on Earnings (AER, P&P 2014)

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 25 / 114

Page 27: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

Medicaid on Labor Supply

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 26 / 114

Page 28: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

Medicaid on Labor Supply

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 27 / 114

Page 29: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

Welfare Relevance of Program Participation E�ects?

Medicaid Lottery increases Food Stamp enrollment

What is the welfare impact?

Information versus price e�ects

If people learned from their doctor or other program o�cer that theywere eligible for other benefits beyond Medicaid, can generate firstorder welfare benefit from changing behavior in response to thisinformation

Labor supply didn’t change -> eligibility didn’t change; onlyenrollment?

Was it information?

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 28 / 114

Page 30: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

Beyond Oregon: Impacts on Financial Strain

MA health insurance expansion required everyone to obtain insurance

Impact on financial strain: Mazumder and Meyer (2016)

Study county-level credit records in MA

Look at heterogeneity as function of %uninsured prior to MA reform

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 29 / 114

Page 31: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

Mazumder and Meyer (2016)

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 30 / 114

Page 32: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

Mazumder and Meyer (2016)

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 31 / 114

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Uncompensated Care

Health insurance expansions reduce bankruptcy and unpaid billsImplies beneficiaries of public health insurance are not necessarily thebeneficiaries themselves

Garthwaite, Gross, and Notowidigdo (2015): “Hospitals as Insurers ofLast Resort”

Document significant impact of public health insurance on reductionsin other forms of charity care and uncompensated care

Use two empirical strategies:Panel regression of uncompensated care cost on %uninsured

Control for state and year e�ectsLarge dis-enrollment in Tennessee and Missouri Medicaid program fromfunding reduction

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 32 / 114

Page 34: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

Garthwaite, Gross, and Notowidigdo (2015)

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 33 / 114

Page 35: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

Garthwaite, Gross, and Notowidigdo (2015)

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 34 / 114

Page 36: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

Garthwaite, Gross, and Notowidigdo (2015)

Greater uninsured lead to greater uncompensated care paid byhospitals

Implies beneficiaries of public health insurance are not necessarily thebeneficiaries themselves

Estimates suggest each additional uninsured person costs localhospitals $900 each year in uncompensated care

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 35 / 114

Page 37: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

1 Impact of Medicaid on Adults

2 Welfare Analysis of Medicaid

3 Impact Medicaid on Children

4 Impact of Medicare: Health and GE E�ects

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 35 / 114

Page 38: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

Informal Welfare Analysis

Media:“Medicaid Makes ’Big Di�erence’ in Lives, Study Finds”

National Public Radio (2011)

“Spending on Medicaid Doesn’t Actually Help the Poor”Washington Post (2013)

Public policy centers:“Oregon’s lesson to the nation: Medicaid Works”

Oregon Center for Public Policy (2013)

“Oregon Medicaid Study Shows Michigan Medicaid Expansion NotWorth the Cost”

MacKinac Center for Public Policy (2013)

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 36 / 114

Page 39: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

Welfare Analysis

Present results from two recent approaches:“Model-based” approach in Finkelstein, Hendren, and Luttmer (2016)

Conduct welfare analysis of Oregon Health Insurance Experiment“Revealed-preference” approach in Finkelstein, Hendren, and Shepard(2017)

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 37 / 114

Page 40: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

Model-Based Approach: Two Frameworks

1 Complete-information approachCompletely specify normative utility function and estimate causal e�ectof Medicaid on distribution of all utility-relevant arguments

Here: Consumption and Health

Don’t need to assume consumer optimization or need to model howMedicaid a�ects budget set

2 Optimization approachesAssume consumer optimizationModel how Medicaid a�ects the budget set (in each state of the world)Only specify marginal utility function over one argumentImplement three versions:

Consumption-Based Optimization Approach using “consumption proxy”Consumption-Based Optimization Approach using “CEX data”Health-Based Optimization Approach

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 38 / 114

Page 41: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

Setup (common to both frameworks)

Individuals derive utility from health, h, and consumption ofnon-medical goods and services, c

u = u (c , h)

Health h produced according to h = h̃(m; q)

Medical spending, mq denotes underlying state variable

medical conditions, other factors a�ecting health, etc.

Assume each Medicaid recipient faces same distribution of q

Conceptually: welfare analysis behind behind veil of ignoranceEmpirically: cross-sectional distribution of outcomes capture di�erentpotential qPresence of Medicaid denoted by q 2 {0, 1}

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 39 / 114

Page 42: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

Complete-Information Approach

Define c (q; q), h (q; q), and m (q; q) to be distributions ofconsumption, health, and medical spending conditional on insurance q

Define welfare impact of Medicaid on recipient, g(1):

E [u (c (0; q) , h (0; q))] = E [u (c (1; q)� g(1), h (1; q))]

Expectations taken over all possible states of world q

To recover g(1) from above equation requires:Estimates of distribution of c and h at q = 1 and q = 0Specification of normative utility function over all its arguments (in ourapplication: c , h)

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 40 / 114

Page 43: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

Complete-Information Approach: Implementation

Assumption 1: Full specification of utility function:

u (c , h) = c1�s

1 � s+ fh

g(1) solves:

E"

c (0; q)1�s

1 � s+ fh (0; q)

#= E

"(c (1; q)� g (1))1�s

1 � s+ fh (1; q)

#

Requirements:Causal e�ects on distribution of c and mean h for q = 0 and q = 1Full specification of normative utility function

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 41 / 114

Page 44: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

Optimization Approaches: Model Program Structure

Reduce information requirements through additional assumptions

Assumption 2: (Program structure) Medicaid’s only direct e�ect ison the out-of-pocket price for medical care, p(q)

Rules out other ways Medicaid might a�ect consumption or healthE.g., impacts on provider behavior

Implementation: define out-of-pocket spending, x , for medical careby:

x(q,m) ⌘ p(q)m

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 42 / 114

Page 45: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

Assumption 3: Individual Optimization

Assumption 3: Individuals choose m and c optimally, subject totheir budget constraint

maxc,m

u�c , h̃ (m; q)

�subject to c = y (q)� x (q,m) 8m, q, q.

y(q) denotes (potentially state-contingent) income plus any(potentially state-contingent) changes in assets (savings or borrowings)

Not an innocuous assumption in health care context!Decisions are taken jointly with other agents (e.g., doctors) who mayhave di�erent objectives (e.g., Arrow 1963)Complex nature of decision may generate individually sub-optimalbehavior

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 43 / 114

Page 46: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

Thought Experiment: Marginal Expansion of Medicaid

Let q 2 [0, 1] trace a “marginal” expansion in Medicaid:

x(q,m) = (1 � q)p(0)m+qp(1)m

Marginal expansion of Medicaid (marginal increase in q), relaxes theindividuals budget constraint by � ∂x

∂q :

�∂x(q,m(q; q))∂q = (p(0)� p(1))m(q; q)

Note: this is program parameter (i.e., holding behavior, m, constant)

Value to recipient of getting fraction q of Medicaid is given by g(q):

E [u (c (0; q) , h (0; q))] = E [u (c (q; q)� g(q), h (q; q))]

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 44 / 114

Page 47: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

Consumption-Based Optimization ApproachUse envelope theorem to derive value of marginal expansion of insurance:

dg

dq = E

2

6666666664

ucE [uc ]| {z }

Relativemarginal utility

⇥ (p(0)� p(1))m(q; q)| {z }Marginal relaxation of

budget constraint: �∂x/∂q

3

7777777775

Value budget constraint relaxation by ucE [uc ]

in each state, q

Because derivation is based on envelope theorem, we do not requirefirst-order condition to hold everywhere (i.e., medical spending can be“lumpy”)

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 45 / 114

Page 48: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

Consumption-Based Optimization Approach

Decompose dg(q)dq into a transfer term and a pure-insurance term

Implementation will be based on estimating each term separately

dg (q)dq = (p(0)� p(1))E [m(q; q)]| {z }

Transfer Term

+Cov

ucE [uc ]

, (p(0)� p(1))m(q; q)

| {z }Pure-Insurance Term

(consumption valuation)

Transfer term: Value to beneficiary of expected resource transfersfrom rest of economy

Medical spending times change in out-of-pocket pricePure-insurance term: Value of reallocating resources (by relaxingbudget constraint) across di�erent states of world

Medicaid adds value if it moves resources from states of the world withlower marginal utility of consumption into states of the world withhigher marginal utility

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 46 / 114

Page 49: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

Consumption-Based Optimization Approach

To arrive at non-marginal estimate, integrate over q :

g (1) =Z

1

0

dg (q)dq dq =

(p(0)� p(1))Z

1

0

E [m (q; q)]dq| {z }

Transfer Term

+Z

1

0

Cov⇣ uc

E [uc ], (p(0)� p(1))m(q; q)

⌘dq

| {z }Pure-Insurance Term

(consumption valuation)

The transfer term does not depend on the utility functiontherefore relatively straightforward to implementsame for all optimization approaches (whether consumption based orhealth based)

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 47 / 114

Page 50: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

Implementation: Pure-Insurance Term

Requires partial specification of utility function: only marginal utilityof consumptionAssumption 4: Utility function has the form:

u(c , h, .. , ..) = c1�s

1 � s+ v(h, .. , ..)

where v(.) is unspecified subutility function over health and any otherarguments of the utility function

As a result, can write the pure-insurance term as:

Cov uc

E [uc ], (p(0)� p(1))m(q; q)

| {z }Pure-Insurance Term

(consumption valuation)

= Cov

c (q; q)�s

E [c (q; q)�s], (p(0)� p(1))m(q; q)

!

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 48 / 114

Page 51: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

Implementation: Interpolation

Only observe q at 0 and at 1.Need additional assumption to obtain g(1)

Baseline: statistical assumption: dgdq linear in q

Explore sensitivity to alternatives (e.g., m linear in q, or m as anyincreasing function of q, bounds on transfer term)

Assumption 5: Linear approximation:

g (1) ⇡ 12

dg (0)

dq +dg (1)

dq

Compare to complete-information approach which can delivernon-marginal welfare estimates directly

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 49 / 114

Page 52: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

Baseline Estimates, g(1)

I II III IV

Consumption-Based

(Consumption Proxy)

Consumption-Based

(CEX Cons. Measure)

Health-Based

A. Welfare Effect on Recipients, γ(1) 1675 1421 793 690 (standard error) (60) (180) (417) (420)

Transfer component, T 699 661 661 661Pure-insurance component, I 976 760 133 30

Notes: Estimates of welfare effects and moral hazard costs are expressed in dollars per year per Medicaid recipient. Standard errors are bootstrappedwith 500 repetitions.

Complete-InformationApproach

(Consumption Proxy)

Table 2: Welfare Benefit Per Recipient

Optimization Approaches

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 50 / 114

Page 53: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

Benchmarks

G is cost to Government of providing Medicaid:

G = E [m (1; q)] = $3, 600

N is monetary transfer by Medicaid to external parties:

N = E [m (0; q)]� E [x (0,m(0; q))] = $2, 721 � $569 = $2, 152

C is net resource cost of Medicaid = G � N = increase in m plusdecrease in x :

C = G � N = $3, 600 � $2, 152 = $1, 448

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 51 / 114

Page 54: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

Comparisons

I II III IV

Cons.-Based (Consumption

Proxy)

Cons.-Based (CEX Cons.

Measure)

Health-Based

A. Welfare Effect on Recipients, γ(1) 1675 1421 793 690

B. Transfer to External Parties, � 2152 2152 2152 2152

C. Efficiency Pure-insurance component, I 976 760 133 30 Moral hazard cost, G-N-T = C - T 749 787 787 787

D. Ratios of γ(1) relative to: monetary transfer to external parties, γ(1)/N 0.78 0.66 0.37 0.32 net costs, γ(1)/C 1.16 0.98 0.55 0.48 gross costs, γ(1)/G 0.47 0.39 0.22 0.19

Complete-InformationApproach

(Consumption Proxy)

Table 2B: Comparisons

Optimization Approaches

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 52 / 114

Page 55: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

Key Findings From Baseline Specifications, I

First two key findings:1 Recipients’ value from Medicaid is 1/3 to 3/4 of transfers to external

parties, g (1) < N2 Cash vs. In-kind: Recipients would rather give up Medicaid than pay

G , g(1) < G

Driven by substantial transfers to external parties (N/G = 0.6).Uninsured pay only about $0.20 on the dollar for medical spendingConsistent with other estimates of share of medical expenses paid byuninsured (e.g., Coughlin et al., 2014; estimates in MEPS)Consistent with other evidence of implicit insurance

Medicaid substantially reduces provision of uncompensated care byhospitals (Garthwaite et al. 2015)Impact of health shocks on access to credit similar for insured anduninsured (Dobkin et al. 2015)

Key question: economic incidence of transfers to external parties

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 53 / 114

Page 56: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

Summary

Key limitation for welfare analysis of public health insurance /Medicaid: Do not observe choices

FHL2016 impose a utility function (or coe�. of risk aversion)

Maybe people really are WTP more for health insurance than isgenerated from CRRA=3?

Alternative: Exploit setting where we do see prices

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 54 / 114

Page 57: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

Revealed Preference Approach

Finkelstein, Hendren, and Shepard (2016) exploit subsidized healthinsurance exchange in Massachusetts (pre ACA)

Charged premiums that were discontinuous functions of income

Estimate demand and cost curves for insuranceIdea: Enrollment on exchange reveals willingness to pay (demand)Key variation: Premium discontinuities by income group

E.g., Cheapest plan is $0 for 100-150% pov.; $39 for 150-200% pov.RD Strategy: Compare 149% poverty vs. 151% poverty to measurehow much higher premium reduces demand, a�ects avg. costs

No evidence of income manipulation across thresholds (why is thisimportant?)

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 55 / 114

Page 58: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

010

020

030

040

0

$ pe

r mon

th

135 150 200 250 300Income, % of FPL

Subsidy and Premium Discontinuities (2011)

Subsidies

Insurer Price

Enrollee Premium

“Affordable Amt.” (cheapest plan)

Four Other Plans

Page 59: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

0.2

.4.6

.81

135 150 200 250 300Income, % of FPL

Share of Eligible Population Insured94%

70%

76%

56%

44%

58%

%Δ = -26% %Δ = -27%

%Δ = -24% Pmin = $39 Pmin = $77 Pmin = $116

Pmin = $0

Page 60: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

RD = 46.3 (17.3) RD = 31.9

(17.9)RD = 9.4 (22.1)

300

340

380

420

Avg.

cos

t ($/

mon

th)

133 150 200 250 300Income as % of FPL

InsurerCosts

Page 61: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

Average Cost (H)

Marginal Cost (H)

Value_H

0 10

0 20

0 30

0 40

0 $

per m

onth

.2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 1 Fraction in H Plan

Value vs. Cost Curves (adj. to 150% FPL)

Page 62: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

Average Cost (H)

Marginal Cost (H)

Value_H

0 10

0 20

0 30

0 40

0 $

per m

onth

.2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 1 Fraction in H Plan

Result #1: Substantial Adverse Selection

Downward sloping MC and AC

Page 63: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

Average Cost (H)

Marginal Cost (H)

Value_H

0 10

0 20

0 30

0 40

0 $

per m

onth

.2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 1 Fraction in H Plan

Result #2: Little Take-up w/out Large Subsidies

Demand well below average cost

Page 64: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

Average Cost (H)

Marginal Cost (H)

Value_H

0 10

0 20

0 30

0 40

0 $

per m

onth

.2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 1 Fraction in H Plan

Result #3: Adverse selection alone cannot explain low covg. Suggests most enrollees would prefer cash to coverage

Demand also well below marginal cost

Page 65: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

Average Cost (H)

Marginal Cost (H)

Value_H

0 10

0 20

0 30

0 40

0 $

per m

onth

.2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 1 Fraction in H Plan

Normative Conclusions Not Immediate

Private WTP = Social WTP?

Private MC = Social MC? (e.g. Charity Care?)

Page 66: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

Ex-Ante WTP?

What about ex-ante WTP we discussed last class?Apply approach from Hendren (2018)

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 64 / 114

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010

0020

0030

0040

0050

0060

00

0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1

Uncompensated Care Estimate

C(s)

AC(s)

D(s)sCE =0

WTP and Cost Curves: Net Resource Cost

Page 68: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

010

0020

0030

00

0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1

Market Surplus Maximizing Allocation

C(s)

D(s)

Page 69: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

010

0020

0030

00

0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1

Market Surplus Maximizing Allocation

sms =41%

pms =$1581

C(s)

D(s)

Page 70: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

010

0020

0030

00

0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1

$182

sms =41%

pms =$1581

C(s)

D(s)

Page 71: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

From Observed to Ex-Ante WTP

§ Whataboutex-anteWTP?

§ Requiresmeasureofriskaversion

§ Baselinecase:!=5x10-4 (Handel,Hendel,andWhinston 2016)

– Estimatedforricherpopulation->lowerboundunderDARApreferences

§ But,impliesCRRAof8ifconsumptionis150%FPL

– ConsideralternativescenarioofCRRAof3(CARAof1.8x10-4)

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010

0020

0030

00

0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1

From Observed to Ex-Ante Demand

D(s)+EA(s)

C(s)

D(s)

Page 73: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

010

0020

0030

00

0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1

From Observed to Ex-Ante Demand

D(s)+EA(s)

C(s)

D(s)

sea =55%

pea =$1089

Page 74: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

010

0020

0030

00

0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1

From Observed to Ex-Ante Demand

C(s)

D(s)

sea =55%

pea =$1089

Result#1:Ex-anteoptimalinsurancepricesare$1089not$1581

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010

0020

0030

00

0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1

From Observed to Ex-Ante Demand

C(s)

D(s)

sea =55%

pea =$1089

Result#1:Ex-anteoptimalinsurancepricesare$1089not$1581

Ex-AnteOptimalAllocationinvolves“deadweightloss”

Page 76: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

010

0020

0030

00

0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1

$228

sea =55%

pea =$1089

D(s)+EA(s)

C(s)

D(s)

From Observed to Ex-Ante Demand

Page 77: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

010

0020

0030

00

0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1

$228

sea =55%

pea =$1089 C(s)

D(s)

Result#2:EveryoneisWTP$228toliveinaworldwithmarginalpriceof$1089forinsurancepriortolearnings

From Observed to Ex-Ante Demand

Page 78: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

010

0020

0030

00

0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1

$182

$227

Mandatelowersmarketsurplusby$45

Welfare Cost of Mandates: Market Surplus

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010

0020

0030

00

0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1

$158

$228Mandateincreasesex-antewelfareby$70

Welfare Cost of Mandates: Ex-Ante Welfare

Page 80: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

010

0020

0030

00

0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1

$158

$228

Welfare Cost of Mandates: Ex-Ante Welfare

Result#3:Mandatesareex-anteoptimal,butresultinlowermarketsurplus

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Summary

Modest premiums deter coverage substantially and raise costsAdverse selection!

Low-income WTP for insurance far below costConsistent with Finkelstein, Hendren, and Luttmer (2016) and factthat uninsured pay 20-30% of their costs

Contrasts with health insurance for high-income peopleConsistent with model in which uncompensated care only provided tolow-income peopleOpen question: Implications for optimal tax/transfers?!

Ex-ante welfare perspective can matter in this instance for whetherWTP exceeds resource costs

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 79 / 114

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1 Impact of Medicaid on Adults

2 Welfare Analysis of Medicaid

3 Impact Medicaid on Children

4 Impact of Medicare: Health and GE E�ects

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 79 / 114

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Impacts on Children

Substantial evidence that public health insurance improves health forchildren

But, contrasts with minimal estimated impacts on adults

Currie and Gruber (1996, QJE): Health Insurance Eligibility,Utilization of Medical Care, and Child Health

Exploits state variation in expansion of Medicaid to children andpregnant mothers

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 80 / 114

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Currie and Gruber (1996)

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 81 / 114

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Currie and Gruber (1996): Simulated Instruments

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 82 / 114

Page 86: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

Currie and Gruber (1996)

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 83 / 114

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Currie and Gruber (1996)

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 84 / 114

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Currie and Gruber (1996)

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 85 / 114

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Evidence of Medicaid Impacts using Birthdate RD

Further evidence exploiting Medicaid expansion that o�ered Medicaidto children born after September 30, 1983

Amazing source of identification...Regression discontinuity!

Wherry, Miller, Kaestner, and Meyer: “Childhood Medicaid Coverageand Later Life Health Outcomes”

Wherry and Meyer (2015): “Saving Teens: Using a PolicyDiscontinuity to Estimate the E�ects of Medicaid Eligibility”

Builds on Card and Shore-Sheppard (2004, RESTAT)

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 86 / 114

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Wherry and Meyer (2015)

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 87 / 114

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Wherry and Meyer (2015)

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 88 / 114

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Wherry and Meyer (2015)

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 89 / 114

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Wherry and Meyer (2015)

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 90 / 114

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Wherry and Meyer (2015)

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 91 / 114

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Wherry and Meyer (2015)

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 92 / 114

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Medicaid Impacts on Children

Evidence Medicaid reduces mortality of children

What about other health impactsDirect health impactsImpacts on costs later in life

Wherry, Miller, Kaestner, and Meyer: “Childhood Medicaid Coverageand Later Life Health Outcomes”

Look at impacts on later-life hospitalization, ED visitsFocus on visits for chronic conditions

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 93 / 114

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Wherry and Meyer (2015)

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 94 / 114

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Wherry and Meyer (2015)

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 95 / 114

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Wherry and Meyer (2015)

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 96 / 114

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Wherry and Meyer (2015)

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 97 / 114

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Wherry and Meyer (2015)

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 98 / 114

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Medicaid Impacts on Children

Medicaid reduced mortality ratesInfant mortality (Currie and Gruber 2006)Child mortality (Wherry and Meyer 2015)

Medicaid reduced later-life chronic conditions and hospitalizationReduced later life costs on the systemReduces cost of medicaid expansion by 2-5%

But, less impact of Medicaid on adults (e.g. Oregon...)Similar to impact of place via MTO: Significant impacts on children,but not on adults?

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 99 / 114

Page 103: Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance...Topic 8: Welfare Analysis of Public Health Insurance Nathaniel Hendren Harvard and NBER Fall, 2018 Thanks to Raj Chetty and Amy

1 Impact of Medicaid on Adults

2 Welfare Analysis of Medicaid

3 Impact Medicaid on Children

4 Impact of Medicare: Health and GE E�ects

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 99 / 114

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Impact of Medicare

Focus on two papers looking at impact of Medicare

Exploit:

Age 65 discontinuity (Card, Dobkin, and Maestas, 2009)

Look at health e�ects

Pre-Medicare variation in coverage rates (Finkelstein, 2007)

Look at “GE” e�ects

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 100 / 114

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Card, Dobkin, and Maestas (2009)

Card, Dobkin, and Maestas (2009) exploits discontinuity in eligibilityfor Medicare at age 65

Document increase in medical care provided

Document reduction in mortality

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 101 / 114

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Card, Dobkin, and Maestas (2009)

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 102 / 114

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Card, Dobkin, and Maestas (2009)

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 103 / 114

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GE E�ects of Health Insurance: Finkelstein (2007)

Health insurance can have e�ects on providers

Health expenditures are growing dramaticallyCould health insurance cause this growth?

Increases incentive to innovate by creating excess demandIs this bad from a welfare perspective?

Finkelstein (2007): Studies impact of Medicare introduction

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 104 / 114

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Finkelstein (2007): Empirical Strategy

Empirical analysis of Medicare is di�cultMedicare is a national program!

Enacted in 1965Finkelstein (2007): exploit variation in pre-1965 insurance rates

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 105 / 114

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Finkelstein (2007): Pre-1965 Insurance

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 106 / 114

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Finkelstein (2007): Estimating Equation

log (yijt) = aj + dt +1975

Ât=1948

ltMcareimpactz ⇤ yeart + Xst b + eijt

where:yijt is outcome in hospital i in county j at time taj is county fixed e�ectdt is year fixed e�ectXst is outcomes in state s at time tMcareimpactz = % elderly in region z without Blue Cross hospitalinsurance in 1963Does lpost � lpre capture GE e�ects? What might be missing?

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 107 / 114

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Finkelstein (2007): Main Results

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 108 / 114

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Finkelstein (2007): Main Results

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 109 / 114

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Finkelstein (2007): Main Results

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 110 / 114

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Finkelstein (2007): Entry and Exit

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 111 / 114

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Finkelstein (2007): Adoption of new technologies

Paper also looks at impact of adoption of new technologies byhospitals:

Newtechis = lMcareimpactz + Xs b + eis

Newtech indicates adoption of technology in hospital i in state s

NOTE: Only cross-sectional data available...

Potential bias?

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 112 / 114

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Finkelstein (2007): Results

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 113 / 114

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Summary

Public health insurance for adults leads to:Reductions in OOP spendingReductions in financial strain

And reductions in uncompensated careBut, beneficiaries generally not willing to pay full cost

Perhaps because incidence is on third parties

Public health insurance for children leads to:Reductions in infant and child mortalityReductions in future medical costs and chronic conditions

Evidence of GE e�ects of health insurance on hospital entry and newtechnologies

Nathaniel Hendren (Harvard and NBER) Public Health Insurance Spring, 2018 114 / 114