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  • Focus: Peru Gkncore Xstrata completed the USS 1.47 bllBon Antapaccay expansion project at its Tintaya mine in 2012 Toronto welcomes Latin flavour Peru will keep one country's growth prospects on a 2014 PDAC menu that may be less appetising than usual C ould there be a better inaugural 'country sponsor'for this year's PDAC conference than Peru? As the mining investment world looks for good news stones amid the fog (let us imagine the gloom is becoming more translucent), Peru continues to build its case to be considered the emerging eco- nomic and mining powerhouse of Latin America. This year, as delegates at the major Toronto min- ing investment conference will bear often next month, development milestones for key resources projects give Peruvian government representatives and major investors in the country more opportuni- ties to trumpet the country's credentials. According to global accounting firm Ernst & Young (EY), latest data suggests that in 2014 Peru mining investments could reach a record of USS14 billion after hitting USS10 billion last year. That pre- vious record mark was driven mainly by large-scale projects such as Aluminum Corporation of China Ltd's (Chinalco) USS4.8 billion Toromocho copper venture, Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc's US$4.4 billion Cerro Verde expansion, and Hudbay Minerals Inc's USS 1.8 billion Constancia project. While a recent International Monetary Fund (IMF) report warned lower commodity prices could unset- tle the Peruvian economy in 2014, others point to its growing resilience and to significant capital inflows and continued reforms that should prove helpful in continuing the country's healthy growth. "In recent years, Peru has achieved significant advances in social and development indicators as well as in macroeconomic performance, with very dynamic GDP growth rates, reduction of external debt, a stable exchange rate, and low inflation - which in 2013 was below the upper limit of the Central Bank target range of 1% to 3%,' EY says in its 2014-15 Peru mining investment guide. "The country has had continuous economic and political stability since the early 1990s. The Peru- vian economy has been growing by an average 6.4% between 2002 and 2012 - the highest 10-year average growth in Peru's history. This growth was largely driven by prudent macroeconomic policies, investor-friendly market policies and the govern- ment's aggressive trade liberalisation strategies. "Peru's rapid expansion has helped to reduce the national poverty rate from 48.5% in 2004, to about 24.5% of its total population in 2013." EY said growth was slowing in a context of lower prices for Peru's largest commodity exports, but the "country's economy remained strong in 2013, growing about 5%, down from 6 3 % in 2012*. "Despite the slowdown in 2013. Peru's economic growth will continue to be one of the strongest among peers, as the central bank now expects growth of around 6% in 2014," the firm said. "It is expected that the increase in mineral production will support Peru's economic growth over the next few years as metal pnces have weakened. Fast facts: Peru Capital: Lima T Population: 29.99 million Real GDP growth: 63% (2012 est) Currency: Peruvian nuevo sol "An estimated US$593 billion is expected to flow into the country over the next few years... [w/fh] new mines and expansion projects expected to more than double its copper production by 2016. The mining sector has real potential for growth and further expansion." EY Peru country manager Jorge Medina Mendez says that as other parts of the world grapple with weak growth, Latin America is "moving ever higher up the global business agenda". "Peru, in particular, has staged a remarkable comeback from the difficult years of the 1980s and 1990s." he said. "After years of conflicts with Maoist terrorists and other challenges, Peruvians have seen a steady increase in income and a dramatic drop in poverty." Banking on growth Mendez said World Bank data showed that since 2004 alone, per capita income in Peru nearly dou- bled from US$5,530 in purchasing power parity terms to US$9,440 in 2011. National GDP grew from US$26.3 billion in 1990 to US$176.9 billion in 2011. Over the same period the national poverty rate fell from 58.7% in 2004, to 27.8% in 2011. Exports, a key source of foreign exchange, grew from 14.8% of GDP in 1999 to 28.7% in 2011. "As in most Latin American economies, high commodity prices have helped boost growth,' Mendez said. 'But the most important factors in Peru's turnaround are its sound economic policies. As a result of responsible macroeconomic steward- ship, the country's sovereign debt ratings have achieved investment grade ratings from Standard & Poor's and Moody's." Last August, S&P praised the administration of president Ollanta Humala, who is more than half- way through his term in office after narrowly win- ning the 2011 election, for its infrastructure
  • Focus: Peru Expansions Confirmed investment With feasibility studies Exploration Mining projects pipeline... mining and metals investment over the period 2014- 2020is estimated by Peru's Ministry of Energy and Mines to be around USSS9S billion. About 62% will be invested in copper projects, with gold and iron ore set for much of the rest. This diagram shows the projects involved. It distinguishes between expansions of existing operations, projects under construction for which investment is confirmed, projects for which feasibility studies have been carried out and exploration projects Las Bambas GiencoreXstrata (Switzerland) Qusllavsco Anglo American Qx%WcoS4(UK) Shoxin (jplotac de fldaves Shoxin (China) Minas Conga Ncvrmont. Buenaventura iPen To romocho Onalco- AUmhum (Corp. of China) Constancia Invicta Hudbay Peru SAC Imicta Mining Corp {Canada) (Canada) Ollachaa .Minero.' rdCAustnia) San Luis Mian i Ventures SAC (Canada) Inmaculada liodadid Miningpk (USA) Corani Bear Creek Urning CUS) Shahuindo Crespo Soliden GoldCorp GnjpoKodixhld (Carada) (Peru) Grupo Mexico (Morico) Proy Fosfatos Cementos Poctnmayo (Peru. Korea. Japan) on Magistral CfupoMpo GntpohUpo (Peru) (Peru) Aaha MarcobrolfcnaJosta Haquan t " SrKorv Mctoh Grupo Sbcj4 JCorao Resource^ LS-MUo Coopv Antom Mmmrfs ' (Canada) (Peni- Corea Japn) (Canada) J u H o n d o MkfckpOav La Granfa PampadaPongo O w o o k i oupSA GnpoVokm Anglo Amanean Uichiquiay SA R*> Tinto Naopnrhoo Group Co Cantm dJ HaBaigo 0 (Peru) (UO (UK-Australia) (China) (Peni) fi alian Jumau Coopm > (Oiina) 1 Condcnf* Resources AQM Cooper ZfrnMninGroop Wrfim Mirartg Zincotv kfatah Inc Aitoqii ox^jc/ Mm Hampton Paru Gtxjpo G Cfliril) (Canada) (Canada) (China) (Japan) (Canada) China) (Australia) (Per* StrAe Resources Peru SAC (AustnSa) Grupo Uraco Grupo G Costilo focus Venti (Mea ico) (Peni) (Canada) C m C c o H w f h a q a g Cuanro Resources Ine (Canada) Samaeras da Sedi GroMm anCa (Canai)
  • Focus: Peru investments. The ratings agency claims these pro- jects could be instrumental in increasing Peru's copper exports in the next few years. The wealth of possibilities in the country would have been unim- aginable two decades ago, Mndez said. Between 2011 and 2021, Peru's total exports are expected to rise a further US$223 billion, led by met- ak (US$8.6 billion} and manufacturing (US$7.693 bil- lion), with yearly exports likely to grow most to China