totten dose cognitive surplus towards climate for life 10 08
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green and smart techologies for profitably anda positively resolving climate destabilization, mass poverty, species extinction, oil wars and resource conflicts. And accelerating solutions through wiki-meshups.TRANSCRIPT
A Dose of Cognitive Surplus Towards A Climate for Life
www.conservation.org/
Soon to migrate to a web-based
social collaboration
value net
More absolute poverty than any time in human history
Humans put as much CO2 into the atmosphere every 44 hours
1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption in Philippines
Your parents lifespanYour lifespan
Your children’s lifespan
Your grandchildren’s lifespan
Today
1100
Past 400,000 years
Present atmospheric CO2concentration not exceeded past 400,000 years, and likely not during past 20 million years.
met
han e
carbon dioxide
Humanity’s Climate Footprint
Global temperature rising 15 to 60 times faster than historical natural rate.
Within grandchild’s lifespan
Oceans more acidic than past 800,000 years.
6th largest extinction – 100 times the natural background rate
NOW UNSAFE, UNSECURE, UNSUSTAINABLEFirst documented in the 1980 Dept. of Defense funded report
A Decade of Immense Financial Loss, Human Tragedy & Time Squandered
3%/yr
19x2%/yr
7x
Contraction & Convergence “ . . . the logical conclusion of a rights-based approach.” IPCC Third Assessment - June 2000
Right-Sizing Humans’ CO2 Footprint
2006
2050
now 29GtCO2
reduce to15 GtCO2
2100reduce to<5 GtCO2
Cognitive Surplus
Large-scale distributed work-force projects are impractical in theory, but doable in reality.
The Internet-connected population worldwide watches roughly a trillion hours of TV a year.
One per cent of that is 100 Wikipedia projects per year worth of peer participation.
www.shirky.com/herecomeseverybody/2008/04/looking-for-the-mouse.html
http://calacanis.com/2008/04/30/clay-shirky-cognitive-surplus-talk-at-web-2-0/
Clay Shirkey’s
The WIKIPEDIA MODEL: In 6 years and with only 6 employees, Catalyzed a value-adding creation now 10 times larger than the Encyclopedia Britannica, Growing, Updated, Corrected daily by 70,000 volunteer editors and content authors, Translating content into 140+ languages, and Visited daily by some 5% of worldwide Internet traffic.
• General purpose tool for gathering and distributing knowledge swiftly
• Process not product, never finished• Error-correcting process leads to
better articles, on average, over time• Every web page latent community
able to be enhanced and grown with conversation, sharing, plug-ins
• Cumulated insights with annotated changes
agriculture5%
bldgs EE15%
transport EE15%
industry EE15%
solar15%
wind15%
biomass10%
geothermal1%
oil1%
gas2%
coal1%
forests5%
Wedges Scenario for 21st Century CO2 Reductions
Assumes:
1) Global economic growth 2-3% per year all century long;
2) sustaining 3% per year efficiency gains;
3) Combined carbon cap & carbon tax
BUSINESS-AS-USUAL TRAJECTORY 200 times this amount over 100 years –113,000 EJ (3600 TW-yrs). Fossil fuels will account for 75% of this sum.
CURRENT GLOBAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION ~ 475 ExaJoules (15 TW-yrs)
Envision eliminating the need for 13.8 billion coal railcars this century.
SMART ENERGY SERVICES (EFFICIENCY) can deliver 57,000 EJs (1800 TW-yrs). Save $50 trillion. Avoid several trillion tons CO2 emissions.
OR, Envision eliminating the need for 6,700 Chernobyl reactors.
OR, Envision eliminating the need for 13,800 Glen Canyon dams.
OR, Envision eliminating the need for 17 million LNG tanker shipments.
14 million ha
IPCC LULUCF Special Report 2000. Tab 1-2.
Gigatons global CO2 emissions per year
0
5
10
15
20
25
Fossil fuel emissions Tropical land use
Billion tons CO2
“Leasing” CO2 ServicesSome 5 billion tons CO2 per year in CO2 offset services available in LDCs, increasing their revenues by billions of dollars annually ; and saving ODCsbillions of dollars.
US GHG levels
13 million hectares burned each year
Envision 18 million coal railcars that would wrap around the world seven times each year.
Or, imagine 8,800 Exxon Valdez oil supertanker shipments per year.
Only 2 nations consume > 75 EJ per year: USA and China.
USA Efficiency gains 1973-2005 Eliminated 75 ExaJoules of Energy Supply
$700 billion per year in energy bill savings
$10 CFL 6-pak Purchase Value
[source: SafeClimate.net]
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Investment lst year 2nd year 3rd year 4th year
6-pak CFLs Dow -Jones Average Bank Account
$
CFL factories displace powerplants
source: A. Gadgil et al. LBL, 1991]
The $3 million CFL factory (right) produces 5 million CFLs per year. Over life of factory these CFLs will produce lighting services sufficient to displace several billion dollars of fossil-fired power plant investments used to power less efficient incandescent lamps.
Less Large Power Plants & MinesMore Retail “Efficiency Power Plants - EPPs”
Less Coal Power Plants
Less Coal Rail Cars
Less Coal Mines
Biggest Efficiency Option of Them All:Supplier Chain Factories & Products
Industrial electric motor systems consume 40% of electricity worldwide, 50% in USA, 60% in China – over 7 trillion kWh per year.
Retrofit savings of 30%, New savings of 50% -- @ 1 ¢/kWh.
2 trillion kWh per year savings –equal to 1/4th all coal plants to be built through 2030 worldwide.
$240 billion savings per decade.
$200 to $400 billion benefits per decade in avoided emissions of GHGs, SO2 and NOx.
Efficiency OutcomesDemand Facts
Support SEEEM (Standards for Energy Efficiency of Electric Motor Systems)
SEEEM (www.seeem.org/) is a comprehensive market transformation strategy to promote efficient industrial electric motor systems worldwide
Hashem Akbari Arthur Rosenfeld and Surabi Menon, Global Cooling: Increasing World-wide Urban Albedos to Offset CO2, 5th Annual California Climate Change Conference, Sacramento, CA, September 9, 2008, http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/events/2008_conference/presentations/index.html
$50 billion/yr Global Savings Potential, 44 Gigaton CO2 Reduction
Public library – North Carolina
Heinz Foundation Green Building, PA
Oberlin College Ecology Center,
Ohio
Green Buildings – ecologically sustainable, economically superior, higher occupant satisfaction
The Costs and Financial Benefits
of Green Buildings, A Report to California’s Sustainable
Building Task Force, Oct. 2003, by
Greg Kats et al.
$500 to $700 per m2 net
present value
Daylighting could displace 100s GWs
Lighting, & AC to remove heat emitted by lights, consume half of a commercial building electricity. Daylighting can provide up to 100% of day-time lighting, eliminating massive amount of power plants and saving tens of billions of dollars in avoided costs. Some daylight designs integrate PV solar cells.
High-E Windows displacing pipelines
Full use of high performance windows in the U.S. could save the equivalent of an Alaskan pipeline (2 million barrels of oil per day), as well as accrue over $15 billion per year of savings on energy bills.
New York
California
USA minus CA & NYPer Capital Electricity Consumption
165 GW Coal
Power Plants
Californian’s have net savings of
$1,000 per family
[EPPs]
Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) Key to harnessing Retail Efficiency Power Plants (EPPs)
For delivering least-cost & risk electricity, natural gas & water services
California proof of IRP value in promoting lower cost efficiency over new power plants or hydro dams, and lower GHG emissions.
California signed MOUs with Provinces in China to share IRP expertise (now underway in Jiangsu).
Rural China High-Efficiency Strawbale Green buildingsBrick house construction is still widely used in many rural areas. Brick factories occupy 1 million acres of land, destroys 150,000 acres of arable land every year, and consumes 100 million tons of coal per year.
The inefficient brick homes consume high levels of coal for heating & cooking, with high pollution levels causing chronic health problems, hundreds of thousands of premature deaths, and reduce crop yields.
RURAL HEALTH OPPORTUNITIES
By 2100, an additional 1700 million ha of land may be required for agriculture.
Combined with the 800 million ha of additional land needed for medium growth bioenergy scenarios, threatens intact ecosystems and biodiversity-rich habitats.
Food, Fuel, SpeciesTradeoffs?
Corn ethanol
Cellulosic ethanol
Wind-battery turbine spacing
Wind turbines ground footprint
Solar-battery
Mark Z. Jacobson, Wind Versus Biofuels for Addressing Climate, Health, and Energy, Atmosphere/Energy Program, Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, March 5, 2007, http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/E85vWindSol
Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles
WEB CALCULATOR- VISUALIZER – COMPARISON OF LAND NEEDED TO POWER VEHICLES
Wind & Solar experts
Solar-battery and Wind-battery refer to battery storage of these intermittent renewableresources in plug-in electric driven vehicles
$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250
windpower farm
non-wind farm
US Farm Revenues per hectare
govt. subsidy $0 $60windpower royalty $200 $0farm commodity revenues $50 $64
windpower farm non-wind farm
Williams, Robert, Nuclear and Alternative Energy Supply Options for an Environmentally Constrained World, April 9, 2001, http://www.nci.org/
Wind Royalties – Sustainable source of Rural Farm and Ranch Income
Crop revenue Govt. subsidy
Wind profits
Figures of MeritGreat Plains area
1,200,000 mi2
Provide 100% U.S. electricity400,000 2MW wind turbines
Platform footprint6 mi2
Large Wyoming Strip Mine>6 mi2
Total Wind spacing area 37,500 mi2
Still available for farming and prairie restoration
90%+ (34,000 mi2)
CO2 U.S. electricity sector40%
95% of U.S. terrestrial wind resources in Great Plains
The three sub-regions of the Great Plains are: Northern Great Plains = Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota; Central Great Plains = Wyoming, Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas; Southern Great Plains = Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 1998, USDA 1997 Census of Agriculture)
Although agriculture controls about 70% of Great Plains land area, it contributes 4 to 8% of the Gross Regional Product.
Wind farms could enable one of the greatest economic booms in American history for Great Plains rural communities, while also enabling one of world’s largest restorations of native prairie ecosystems
How?
Wind Farm Royalties – Could Doublefarm/ranch income with 30x less land area
1) Restoring the deep-rooting, native prairie grasslands that absorb and store soil carbon and stop soil erosion (hence generating a potential revenue stream from selling CO2 mitigation credits in the emerging global carbon trading market);
Potential Synergisms
2) Re-introducing free-ranging bison into these prairie grasslands --which naturally co-evolved together for millennia -- generating a potential revenue stream from marketing high-value organic, free-range beef.
Two additional potential revenue streams in Great Plains:
Also More Resilient to Climate-triggered
Droughts
In the USA, cities and residences cover 56 million hectares.
Every kWh of current U.S. energy requirements can be met simply by applying photovoltaics (PV) to 7% of this area—on roofs, parking lots, along highway walls, on sides of buildings, and in other dual-use scenarios. Experts say we wouldn’t have to appropriate a single acre of new land to make PV our primary energy source!
90% of America’s current electricity could be supplied with PV systems built in the “brown-fields”— the estimated 5 million acres of abandoned industrial sites that exist in our nation’s cities.
Larry Kazmerski, Dispelling the 7 Myths of Solar Electricity, 2001, National Renewable Energy Lab, www.nrel.gov/;
Cleaning Up Brownfield
Sites w/ PV solar
Solar PV satisfying 90% of total US electricity from brownfields
SunSlate Building-Integrated Photovoltaics (BIPV) commercial
building in Switzerland
+$11,024 1.702
+$15,373 1.892
NPV ($) BCR PBP (yrs)
Aluminum
+$14,237 2.141
+$18,586 2.331
NPV ($) BCR PBP (yrs)
Polished Stone
ShanghaiBeijingEconomic Measure
Material Replaced
Net Present Values (NPV), Benefit-Cost Ratios (BCR) & Payback Periods (PBP) for ‘Architectural’ BIPV (Thin Film, Wall-Mounted PV) in Beijing and Shanghai (assuming a 15% Investment Tax Credit)
Byrne et al, Economics of Building Integrated PV in China, July 2001, Univ. of Delaware, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy, Twww.udel.edu/ceep/T]
Economics of Commercial BIPV Building-Integrated Photovoltaics
Reference costs of facade-cladding materialsBIPV is so economically attractive because it captures both energy savings and savings from displacing other expensive building materials.
Eiffert, P., Guidelines for the Economic Evaluation of Building-Integrated Photovoltaic Power Systems, International Energy Agency PVPS Task 7: Photovoltaic Power Systems in the Built Environment, Jan. 2003, National Renewable Energy Lab, NREL/TP-550-31977, www.nrel.gov/
Economics of Commercial BIPV
Electric vehicles with onboard battery storageand bi-directional power flows could stabilize large-scale (one-half of US electricity) wind power with 3% of the fleet dedicated to regulation for wind, plus 8–38% of the fleet providing operating reserves or storage for wind.
Kempton, W and J. Tomic. (2005a). V2G implementation: From stabilizing the grid to supporting large-scale renewable energy. J. Power Sources, 144, 280-294.
Vehicle-to-Grid PHEVs
Pacific NW National Lab 2006 Analysis SummaryPHEVs w/ Current Grid Capacity
Source: Michael Kintner-Meyer, Kevin Schneider, Robert Pratt, Impacts Assessment of Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles on Electric Utilities and Regional U.S. Power Grids, Part 1: Technical Analysis, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 01/07, www.pnl.gov/.
ENERGY POTENTIALU.S. existing electricity infrastructure has sufficient available capacity to fuel 84% of the nation’s cars, pickup trucks, and SUVs (198 million), or
73% of the light duty fleet (about 217 million vehicles) for a daily drive of 33 miles on average
ENERGY & NATIONAL SECURITY POTENTIALA shift from gasoline to PHEVs could reduce gasoline consumption by 85 billion gallons per year, which is equivalent to 52% of U.S. oil imports (6.5 million barrels per day).
OIL MONETARY SAVINGS POTENTIAL~$240 billion per year in gas pump savings
AVOIDED EMISSIONS POTENTIAL (emissions ratio of electric to gas vehicle)
27% decline GHG emissions, 100% urban CO, 99% urban VOC, 90% urban NOx, 40% urban PM10, 80% SOx; BUT, 18% higher national PM10 & doubling of SOxnationwide (from higher coal generation).
www.conservation.org/
Soon to migrate to a web-based
social collaboration
value net
ENJOY THE RIDE
Half to 75% of all natural resource consumption becomes pollution and waste within 12 months.
E. Matthews et al., The Weight of Nations, 2000, www.wri.org/
Closing the Loop – Reducing Use of Virgin Resources & Increasing Reuse of Waste Nutrients